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View Full Version : Who will be the most PRODUCTIVE rookie in 09-10?



thekmp211
07-23-2009, 11:37 AM
Let me clarify exactly what I mean before people start arguing talent and skillset and this and that. What I'm wondering is, given the overall state of their respective teams, which rookies will have the most opportunity to play and of those rookies who will be the most productive? I suppose this is really a ROTY thread, although I'm pretty sure the race will come down to two or three guys already. Here's my top 10

1. Tyreke Evans -- He will probably start at pg for the Kings and given their lack of talent and depth will certainly crack the 30mpg threshhold. I see him having an O.J. Mayo-type season, although I think Evans will be more efficient because he goes so hard to the rim.

2. Blake Griffin -- A lot of my friends who talk sports think the guy's overrated. I think he's underrated. Personally, I think he's got the chance to be better than anyone from the past two drafts with the possible exception of Derrick Rose. The only thing that will hold him back from what he is capable of the season (I could see 16 and 11 for him with minutes) is the fact that Camby and Kaman are still on the roster. If they move one of those guys like they want to, he's probably number one.

3. Jonny Flynn* -- *The disclaimer with this pick is Rubio's status. If he ends up on the Wolves, he drops off the list. Assuming Rubio is out of the picture, however, Flynn is literally the only NBA pg left on Minny's roster. Besides that, he also happens to be a great talent. Lotta folks raving about his leadership skills, and we already know about the talent and athleticism. As a Wolves fan/comiserator, the idea of Love pulling down a board and outletting it to Flynn for a fast break is pretty enticing.

4. James Harden -- What a talented backcourt the Thunder has. Westbrook/Harden/Sefolosha/Livingston. I think that Sefolosha will start out as the starter, but there's no doubt that Harden is more talented and a better fit alongside Westbrook. In a lot of ways Harden is a more pure pg than Westbrook, who likes to slash and score from the 1. Provided Harden proves he is ready to step up I think he could be a Brandon Roy-type rookie.

5. Hasheem Thabeet -- I don't think he's going to be a good NBA player. I do think he will get a ton of pt on the lowly Grizzlies team, especially alongside low-post turnstile Zach Randolph. He could average 10+ boards and 3+ blocks per game with enough pt, so he qualifies.

6. Jordan Hill -- Despite a lackluster summer league, I think he's a keeper that will thrive in the Knicks up-tempo offense. Plus, who starts above him on the Knicks? I have a hard time imagining him not playing a ton of minutes at the 4 and 5, even if they manage to keep David Lee. If the Knicks pick up Ramon Sessions, I think he could be even better.

7. Brandon Jennings -- I'm fairly confident that Sessions will get signed and that the Bucks won't match. Their other moves this off-season have trended towards that. If that is the case, Jennings will be in a Flynn-like situation. The difference is, of course, that the Bucks have maybe the most talent-deprived roster in the NBA right now. That will mean lots of shots, and lots of missed assists, for Mr. Jennings. On talent, this guy is top 3. He seems to have a bit of an erratic, if harmless, streak but if he keeps his head on straight I think he's gonna be a star.

8. Tyler Hansborough -- I used to be a hater. Thought he was Mark Madsen 2.0. Hearing him talk about how motivated he was to prove people wrong and develop his skills really changed my mind. Then he played really well during the summer league. Troy Murphy is just the perfect guy for Hansborough to craft his game after, and he hustles more than anyone on the floor. If he can develop a 3 point shot (on the way) and some handles, I think he's going to be really legit.

9. DeMar Derozan -- The guy is a freak athlete, but many feared he would go the way of The Gerald Green in the NBA. Looks like he has poise and patience on offense. All he needs is to play within himself, but he's got as much talent as anyone on this list. I think he'll be starting by mid-season barring injury.

10. Steph Curry -- Tough to go beyond here. I'm not confident that Curry will get enough time to really produce, will Ellis and Jackson playing big minutes in front of him. If he starts at the 2 with Captain Jack at the 3 or is the first guard off the bench, I think there's no doubt that he will thrive in the Warriors offense. Great shooter, very good passer with knack for the game that will allow him to play well with veterans. He has grown up around the NBA.

Honorable mention: Austin Daye, Ricky Rubio (If he plays here) , Wayne Ellington, Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson.

Jays Claw
07-23-2009, 11:47 AM
Tyreke Evans will be a productive rookie who will get a truck load of minutes.

GAWDtv
07-23-2009, 11:54 AM
Curry will get the minutes, has the shot and the system to go get ROY.

ronaldsmith_86
07-23-2009, 12:00 PM
gotta go with curry

TheKing23
07-23-2009, 12:01 PM
I think Tyreke Evans will get the most minutes and I can see him being very productive for a rookie.
But Blake Griffin's always got a chance at being the most productive, even in a rotation with Camby and Kaman, I would be surprised if he didn't start with Kaman or Camby starting at C with the other on the bench.

Steph Curry, with minutes can definitely be productive, but he'll split minutes with Anthony Morrow and I can't really see him averaging more than maybe 28 mpg (when you take into account Stephen Jackson may play at the 2 when they play small ball), although Don Nelson could surprise us...

I would love to see James Harden start, he's my favorite rookie out of the draft class, and with the PT, he and Westbrook could develop into one of the most exciting backcourts in the league. A solid, old-school sg, that compliments Westbrooks flashy, uptempo play.

Tmac,lt,berkman
07-23-2009, 12:03 PM
im going with tyreke evans or james harden..my underdog is chase budinger.

what54!?
07-23-2009, 12:06 PM
Probably evans because he'll get a ton of mins or harden because he'll start at the 2 for the thunder and he should get a lot of open looks.

Ace33Bone
07-23-2009, 02:02 PM
Harden wait and see

Chronz
07-23-2009, 02:11 PM
The better question is who will be productive in their minutes, that way we can get rid of the excuses, oh he plays behind so and so. Not getting 38MPG never stopped any great rookie from performing.

LaKeRsSuCk323
07-23-2009, 02:22 PM
Blake griffin

is a beast

thekmp211
07-23-2009, 02:24 PM
The better question is who will be productive in their minutes, that way we can get rid of the excuses, oh he plays behind so and so. Not getting 38MPG never stopped any great rookie from performing.


You're right, but I don't like the Hollinger method of judging young players' incredibly efficient, but incredibly small sample sizes. The guy has been barking about Amir Johnson for years now but he can't get off the pine behind Kwame Brown. I mean productive in the sense of being an important cog for your team. I don't care if Eric Maynor plays 7 minutes a game and his PER is 29...at the end of the day he isn't really doing much game to game. My question was, of the top rookies with the most opportunity to produce, who will be most productive?

zambo4president
07-23-2009, 02:27 PM
Tyreke Evans i think will be a machine. I also think James Johnson is going to surprise alot of people coming off the Bulls bench, hes gonna put up some numbers.

Chronz
07-23-2009, 02:30 PM
You're right, but I don't like the Hollinger method of judging young players' incredibly efficient, but incredibly small sample sizes. The guy has been barking about Amir Johnson for years now but he can't get off the pine behind Kwame Brown. I mean productive in the sense of being an important cog for your team. I don't care if Eric Maynor plays 7 minutes a game and his PER is 29...at the end of the day he isn't really doing much game to game. My question was, of the top rookies with the most opportunity to produce, who will be most productive?

Agreed on the single minute rooks, but theres a middle ground, 20MPG or so is really all the sample size you need. And in any case, the context of minutes played has to be taken into account. A rookie who performs better in the 24MPG he gets say 14-4-4, while another rook gets 38MPG and produces 15-5-5, the 24MPG player was better and more productive. Thats really the point I was getting at.

b_russ
07-23-2009, 02:33 PM
The better question is who will be productive in their minutes, that way we can get rid of the excuses, oh he plays behind so and so. Not getting 38MPG never stopped any great rookie from performing.

I agree. With that said you can't overlook guys like Lawson, Maynor and Blair.

YankeeFan89
07-23-2009, 02:36 PM
Flynn!

Hawkeye15
07-23-2009, 02:40 PM
Ricky Rubio

b_russ
07-23-2009, 02:42 PM
I agree. With that said you can't overlook guys like Lawson, Maynor and Blair.

I wrote my post after you made your explanation. I see your point. It will be interesting who breaks out in this supposed "weak" draft class.

thekmp211
07-23-2009, 02:44 PM
Agreed on the single minute rooks, but theres a middle ground, 20MPG or so is really all the sample size you need. And in any case, the context of minutes played has to be taken into account. A rookie who performs better in the 24MPG he gets say 14-4-4, while another rook gets 38MPG and produces 15-5-5, the 24MPG player was better and more productive. Thats really the point I was getting at.


Agreed. Can't argue with Blair, Maynor and Lawson fitting into that category, either.

Chronz
07-23-2009, 02:49 PM
The only question I have is, can Tyreke and Kevin Martin coexist in that backcourt?

zambo4president
07-23-2009, 02:52 PM
The only question I have is, can Tyreke and Kevin Martin coexist in that backcourt?

It will be interesting to watch to say the least.

b_rad23
07-23-2009, 05:55 PM
Stephen Curry should be very productive, but inefficient.

Probably the same for Evans.

Blake should be reasonably productive as well.

Curry though, IMO will score/assist at the top, though with low %s and high TOs.

Jays Claw
07-23-2009, 06:12 PM
I'm not trying to be a homer but if DeMar DeRozan is brought along the right way then he could be very productive.

MJ-BULLS
07-23-2009, 06:18 PM
tyreke evans and blake griffin will be the most productive IMO, but one player that will surprise all of u guys is James Johnson he is a player that can handle the ball quiet good and is a strong finisher.

Draco
07-23-2009, 06:28 PM
tyreke evans and blake griffin will be the most productive IMO, but one player that will surprise all of u guys is James Johnson he is a player that can handle the ball quiet good and is a strong finisher.

I've only seen highlights of the summer league games but Johnson hasn't been recognized in the ESPN rookie rankings thus far... maybe he's just mediocre.

luuuooooool9
07-23-2009, 06:58 PM
curry + nellie ball = roy

JWO35
07-23-2009, 07:00 PM
Curry

MJ-BULLS
07-23-2009, 07:06 PM
I've only seen highlights of the summer league games but Johnson hasn't been recognized in the ESPN rookie rankings thus far... maybe he's just mediocre.

any big man that can handle the ball has a chance of bieng a solid player in the nba, i dont know if u have see any highlights of him, but i sure have, heres a good one:)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQToP73dbSw

Giants-49ers-Ws
07-23-2009, 09:43 PM
hopefully steph curry, the one thing that could really be holding him back though unfortunately is the lack of playing time..with ellis at point guard, jackson, maggette, morrow, azubuike, belinelli (capable of playing 1 & 2) capable of playing the 2..Curry's going to really have to fight for minutes...

GSW fan
07-23-2009, 10:15 PM
Bg

Corey
07-23-2009, 10:29 PM
I'll go with Tyreke Evans. Going into the draft, I didn't think he was that great of a process, and i didn't get why his stock was skyrocketing, but not I understand. He's a bull when he drives through the lane.

Kyle N.
07-23-2009, 10:29 PM
The only question I have is, can Tyreke and Kevin Martin coexist in that backcourt?

I don't see why not.

Toxeryll
07-24-2009, 01:53 AM
ill go with griffin, flynn and evans

jgonboricua
07-24-2009, 02:29 AM
James johnson anyone? i think he could be a steal at #16

mason c
07-24-2009, 02:35 AM
tyreke evens he's going to get the most minutes

BoomBaby35
07-24-2009, 02:48 AM
Tyreke Evans will be a productive rookie who will get a truck load of minutes.

In the long run, Tyreke Evans will be the next Dwayne Wade IMO:)

Chronz
07-24-2009, 03:03 AM
I don't see why not.
Because neither are PG's and pairing 2 SG's in the backcourt rarely works. Someone has to run the offense, and Brad Miller isnt around to help out in that regard.

Kyle N.
07-24-2009, 03:35 AM
Because neither are PG's and pairing 2 SG's in the backcourt rarely works. Someone has to run the offense, and Brad Miller isnt around to help out in that regard.

He played PG in college and did well at PG in the Summer Leauge. Looks good so far.

Chronz
07-24-2009, 03:42 AM
He played PG in college and did well at PG in the Summer Leauge. Looks good so far.

He was given the greenlight to take over the offense, but I wouldnt call him a PG per say because he never played with Kevin Martin type alongside him to alter his playing style into more of a facilitating role. Nor has he ever shown the ability to be a fulltime PG if need be. College is much different than the pros, especially for PG's.

Just too many examples of Sg's who are forced into learning the PG position in the pros only to fail, lets just say I have my doubts.

Still did you watch any of the Summer league games? How did he play, I heard people compare him to Wade, and if thats the case then I know the pairing wont compliment eachother. Wade was at his best as a 2.

asandhu23
07-24-2009, 03:49 AM
its probably going to end up Blake Griffin. warriors are going to get snubbed once more by the devil: david stern who just loves to promote the big market.

Beno7500
07-24-2009, 03:56 AM
tyreke CAN play point

xwashableclothx
07-24-2009, 04:03 AM
i would put Jennings higher if Sessions doesn't return
also i would think of Jodie Meeks as a possible sleeper rookie who could do some damage(23 ppg in college, i think 19 in summer league, he can shoot)

Bucks lost there 2nd, 3rd and possibly there 4th scoring option from last season, Charlie V, RJ, and Sessions combined for almost 50 points a game last season, if one or both of Redd/Bogut end up haveing injury problems Jennings and Meeks could put up some impressive numbers, heck even without them being injured they both are probally going to have to score a decent amount

GoatMilk
07-24-2009, 04:07 AM
Darren Collison will be a nice back-up for CP

Chronz
07-24-2009, 04:07 AM
tyreke CAN play point

He should be an upgrade to Beno but thats not saying much.

Kyle N.
07-24-2009, 04:21 AM
He was given the greenlight to take over the offense, but I wouldnt call him a PG per say because he never played with Kevin Martin type alongside him to alter his playing style into more of a facilitating role. Nor has he ever shown the ability to be a fulltime PG if need be. College is much different than the pros, especially for PG's.

Just too many examples of Sg's who are forced into learning the PG position in the pros only to fail, lets just say I have my doubts.

Still did you watch any of the Summer league games? How did he play, I heard people compare him to Wade, and if thats the case then I know the pairing wont compliment eachother. Wade was at his best as a 2.

I watched all the games, he played great. His jump shot was ok, his passing seemed good, but his bright and shining attribute was the ability to get into the lane almost at will. This isn't a little dude we're talking about, he's a big boy. Athletically he's 100% ready for the NBA.

Beno7500
07-24-2009, 04:49 AM
He should be an upgrade to Beno but thats not saying much.

beno... worst "starting" pg in the league

WSU Tony
07-24-2009, 10:22 AM
How are we judging "most productive?" Some would have considered Mayo "most productive" last year despite him ONLY scoring. He jacked up tons of shots, didn't defend, rebound, or pass. If we're going scoring alone (which many of you consider most productive and fail to look at the rest of a players game) then I go with Curry.

If we look at the whole package, defense, passing, shooting, assists, and others, I think Evans, Griffin, and Flynn will top the list. Again, some of you look at offense alone and don't value defense. In that case, I take Curry.