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BlueJayFanDan
07-10-2009, 04:35 AM
I am sick and tired of everyone saying we should throw in the towel and just trade everyone and start to rebuild. First thing is if Rios and Wells can do what they are being payed to do which we know they are capable of doing so, we would not be in the mess were in right now. If we were 10 games above 500 right now there would be no talk of trading Halladay or anyone else on the team because we would be competing for the division. We are getting great production from Lind, Hill, Rolen, and Sctuaro. We need more hitters to help them out. If we can get Rios and Wells helping and grab a better first baseman either through a trade or in free agency our lineup will be pretty ridiculous. If we get Marcum back healthy along with some other pitchers (probably not Mcgowan at this point) we will be a great team. We have been rebuilding for like 14 years. We arent at a point where we need to get rid of our best players for young talent. We have to make a move to help our team now and prove to Halladay we can compete because I know Halladay loves Toronto and would take a slight paycut to sign a new deal to stick around another 6 or 7 years and I know if he would take a paycut that moron gm of ours will pay him. Chances are we don't make the playoffs this year unless we start playing like we did for the first 40 games of the season. But if we keep Halladay and the rest of our good players I guarantee with a little more help we will do what the Rays did last year. Except we will win it all and not lose in the finals like they did. But seriously just keep being optomistic and something good will come.

StealingSigns
07-10-2009, 05:33 AM
You are delusional.

Wake up.

StealingSigns
07-10-2009, 05:59 AM
Marcum is good for 4 wins tops this year. McGowan may not be counted on for another win ever, if you listen to whats being said out of the farm system.

As far as Roy Halladay taking a home town discount; Why would he!!!!

He wants to win!

He can't possibly win in Toronto, under the current circumstances.

It is time to rebuild. Sorry to say. Time has run out on JP Ricciardi.

dman_39
07-10-2009, 10:08 AM
I don't like how last year and this year they could have made moves early on to at least improve their chances. J.P never does anything, he is brutal.

BB King
07-10-2009, 10:19 AM
If they get good return for Doc and along the players the have coming through the system there is no need to tear it down and rebuild. It's not like this team is chalked full of 35 year olds who are past their prime. Young guys coming up need guidance and with the core of this team still being faily young, I wouldn't say that in 2-3 years they might contend.

dman_39
07-10-2009, 10:21 AM
We had a strong core of young players 5 years ago and nothing ever came of it; this team has to get rid of J.P

nithanyo
07-10-2009, 10:39 AM
Marcum is good for 4 wins tops this year. McGowan may not be counted on for another win ever, if you listen to whats being said out of the farm system.

As far as Roy Halladay taking a home town discount; Why would he!!!!

He wants to win!

He can't possibly win in Toronto, under the current circumstances.

It is time to rebuild. Sorry to say. Time has run out on JP Ricciardi.

This team still has a shot at 2010. Marcum would be back to form and with us through 2010. Halladay is Halladay. Hopefully Romero doesnt have a sophmore slump. Then you got a whole bunch of other pitchers vying for the last 2 spots. On top of that some good free agent pitchers are hitting the market and Bedard isnt too much of a long shot. That said our rotation would be once again solid.

Tallet would go back to the pen and maybe we can pick up a stud reliever through FA or trades. Otherwise League/Carlson, Frasor, Downs is somewhat solid.

Its beyond obvious we need one more bat. We dont have too much to trade but again we might be able to get a solid bat through free agency.

You could ask where we are getting the money for all these players.
Well, Ryan(10 million), Rolen(12 million), Overbay (7million), and Halladay(15 million) are all coming off the books after 2010, hence a backloaded contract shouldnt be hard to achieve with a couple of players.

You add Bjs salary to doc and give him 25 mill to stay. You convert Rolens money towards a Free agent pitcher. Than you take overbays money and give it to a descent bat

dman_39
07-10-2009, 11:07 AM
Every year we all go through this, next year, next year. So frustrating. They still have alot of holes going towards next year. I like Marcum but just like this year, guys coming off injuries are questionable to say the least. Halladay will most likely be gone next year, so they will need a new number 1 (Marcum is not a number 1 guy). Unless they retain scutaro they will need a shortstop too, plus a first baseman because Overbay belongs in N.L.

Twitchy
07-10-2009, 05:42 PM
You are delusional.

Wake up.

You may not agree with what he says, but please don't insult or attack another poster.

BlueJayFanDan
07-10-2009, 07:54 PM
You are delusional.

Wake up.

So I am delusional for beleiving in the team that I have loved since the first day I watched baseball? I am delusional for knowing that the best pitcher in baseball loves Toronto and considers it his home and wouldnt leave if Toronto can prove they can compete? I am not the only person who feels this way so I guess if I am delusional a ton of other people are too. If thats how you feel go be a fan of another team because I don't really appreciate being disrespected for having an opinion that a lot of people agree with and for beleiving in the team I love.

stiven
07-10-2009, 08:27 PM
So I am delusional for beleiving in the team that I have loved since the first day I watched baseball? I am delusional for knowing that the best pitcher in baseball loves Toronto and considers it his home and wouldnt leave if Toronto can prove they can compete? I am not the only person who feels this way so I guess if I am delusional a ton of other people are too. If thats how you feel go be a fan of another team because I don't really appreciate being disrespected for having an opinion that a lot of people agree with and for beleiving in the team I love.

I agree with you man.. I think a complete rebuild is stupid.. A somewhat lateral trade IF we were to trade Halladay is something I would want.

I think we need to get quicker and add some power obviosuly.. I think the dodgers are the best bet in terms of trading partners

MaHaRaJaH
07-10-2009, 08:34 PM
Why? this was SUPPOSE to happen. Looks like a good preview for next year when we have most of our pitchers back.

StealingSigns
07-10-2009, 09:39 PM
You may not agree with what he says, but please don't insult or attack another poster.

You are absolutely right, Twitchy.

I apologize BlueJayFanDan, my frustration about the season came out in an ugly way last night.

I still don't share the view that this team will be competitive by just adding some payroll and going out and getting one bat.

I also don't believe Marcum is a #2 starter on a playoff contender, maybe #3 or even 4. We don't know how effective he is going to be after rehab: just look what happened to BJ Ryan, another player who rehabbed quickly after surgery (just like Marcum) only to disappoint when he came back to the bigs.

I still think the way to go is sell high on some of our assets (Rolen, Scoots) and, although I have no way of knowing for sure, I think Roy Halladay has lost his patience in waiting for the team to contend and has requested that JP look to see if there are any teams who would like to procure his services. I think you will see him sign long term with a team that has a payroll over 120 million in order to afford his contract and still be competitive. I don't think the Jays will have a payroll over 120 million anytime soon...

stiven
07-10-2009, 10:06 PM
^^

For the most part TJ surgery doesnt have the same result as it did with Ryan, I have a different belief as to Ryans fall from grace, but we wont get into that again.

I agree with you that Marcum may not be a number 2, but he certainly fits the number 3 spot, at least with how he pitched last year, I wouldnt rule him out of being a #2 starter yet either. Marcum is an excellent right handed finesse pitcher and mixes his pithces effectivly. He is a K machine most nights and tops his fastball out at 89 mph.

The Blue jays are lucky to possess several young arms with devastaiting changeups, Marcum being one of them.

As for our assets, such as Scuturo, I am not of the belief that he is a top performer day in and day out. He is having an excellent season, but he certainly can be replaced.

We have some young bats that are coming up and a solid core of pitchers. It's adding teh right pieces to compliment each other that is important now.

We should be more concerned with firing our trainer or arnsburg or whoever is dicking up our pitchers arms, cause this is more then just a fluke.

Habs n Jays Fan
07-11-2009, 01:43 AM
One very encouraging note is that Travis Snider seems to have found his HR stroke in AAA(2 HR in his last 5 games).

I'm with you BlueJayFanDan, this team can't possibly go into rebuilding mode, I really don't think the franchise could survive it. We aren't too far off from contending and all we need is some good health and certain players to step up and play like they can and we're right in the thick of things.

Saying that, I really don't see any reason to be buyers this year but why not sell off a player or two such as Brian Tallet and Marco Scutaro and get some future pieces(I think Scutaro could bring in a pretty solid prospect or two).

IF, and this is a BIG IF, we were to rebuild, the only conceivable way we could survive it is if JP Ricciardi was fired and replaced with someone qualified to do the job.

BlueJayFanDan
07-11-2009, 03:39 AM
Aplogy accepted Stealingsigns. All us die hard Blue Jay fans know the same pain you are going through. I apologize as well for my last one because I came off as a bit harsh. Anyway, we can sell high on guys like Scutaro and Rolen and maybe even Overbay because we have solid prospects that may be ready by next season and we could get some good talent in return but we cannot sell Halladay and if we want to compete we need to keep Wells and Rios though I would love to get rid of Wells contract. For next season I think Travis Snider will be ready to be up and effective and Marcum may not be a #2 but the way Romero has pitched although hes young he could probably be an effective #2 and Marcum could be a good #3. If all our pitchers can be healthy next season and we grab some good bats I really do like our chances. I do think we need to call up some guys next season besides Snider. We need to make room for Buck Coats because he can be a very good lead off hitter with his ability to make contact and his speed. In theory if Snider and Coats can both be effective by next season that would make us able to sell Wells for some talent so we can have room for both of them. I also think one of our 1st baseman could be ready by next season. More likely Dopirak because I think David Cooper is still a couple years away. Maybe if we can trade Rolen or Scutaro or Wells and manage to find a way to get a shortstop like J.J. Hardy or Troy Tulowitzki that would help even more. Who knows. But JP needs to make some moves.

wamco
07-11-2009, 07:58 AM
creativity ain't jp's best asset. I guess his nose would be.

ah nuts
07-11-2009, 10:17 AM
So I am delusional for beleiving in the team that I have loved since the first day I watched baseball? I am delusional for knowing that the best pitcher in baseball loves Toronto and considers it his home and wouldnt leave if Toronto can prove they can compete? I am not the only person who feels this way so I guess if I am delusional a ton of other people are too. If thats how you feel go be a fan of another team because I don't really appreciate being disrespected for having an opinion that a lot of people agree with and for beleiving in the team I love.

I'm not convince resigning Halladay is going to happen. I'm sure Halladay as been told many times by JP that the jays will be competitive "next year" or the "following year". And again, the 2009 jays will not see meaningful games this fall(although the cause due to injuries).

The main point being: a frustration has set deep inside Halladay. You can see it grow. His free agent year (2011 season)he will be 34yrs! No matter how much he loves TO, that frustration will not go away in this super competitive human being until he plays meaningful games.

Twitchy
07-11-2009, 11:09 AM
Long post, so if you don't wanna read just skip to the bottom for cliff notes...here goes.

So I took a look at what the payroll will be like for 10/11. Here's what I found.

Assuming the Jays stand pat next year they're sitting at around 91 million. That's not including Ryan's salary, or any other bonuses (like Wells' 8 million). So payroll isn't going to go up much higher than it is now. At least I can't see it happening, cause it'd be 100+ if they increased it.

Wells would obviously be the best guy to move, but nobody's gonna take him off your hands. Even for a bag of balls. Realistically, Rios (9.7), Overbay (7) are the best guys to move. For what it's worth I'd rather move Overbay, since we have better internal replacements for 1B and I think Rios will be the CF soon (assuming he's not traded).

Couple issues were how much to pay Scutaro/Barajas if you keep them. I figured Scutaro made 5, Barajas made 3.5. That could change but I figure it's safe doing it like that.

The 2011 payroll is where we run into a lot of problems. Assuming Rolen, Downs & Halladay stay, you're looking at close to 114 million in payroll. Rolen (11), Wells (23), Rios (12), Halladay (20), Downs (8), Scutaro (5) make 79 million among them. By now Lind, Marcum, Frasor, Bautista, Accardo, League are in arbitration or heading to FA. Safe to say most of those guys need to be on the team to win. Romero, Cecil, and one other young guy (Richmond, Purcey, Rzchinsky etc) fill out the rotation behind Halladay & Marcum. Note that I'm not expecting McGowan back but it'd be very nice if he was. I have no clue who the DH is but the team is stretched for cash so better hope a young/cheap guy steps up (Dopriak etc and yes I know he isn't young).

Rolen's gonna make at least 11, which is what he gets in 2010. I don't see Ahrens being ready, and without Rolen this team has a huge weakness at 3B. Doc is getting minimum 20 (and that's a hometown discount because he could easily get 22-23 to equal johan & CC), and you have to figure Downs will get close to 8 now since he's the closer. And that's generous once again, since he could probably get 10+ because he'll have 2 years experience as a closer. So thank BJ for costing us an extra 6 or so million per year because Downs is now the closer. The BJ is just the gift that keeps on giving.

It's really important to focus as Downs as a key trade piece. If we're rebuilding, Downs is a FA after 2010. He's proven he's a legit closer this year, and as a stud LH relief pitcher you could make a killing at the deadline. He's without a doubt one of our best commodities due to his low salary, his performance, and how weak the market is for relievers. You want to rebuild, I'd focus on trading Downs.

You also have to worry about Rios/Wells salaries going to 12/23 respectively. I'm assuming Overbay isn't re-signed, and that by now Cecil, Snider, Cooper, Arencibia and several other prospects who are getting their feet wet or are in the high minors have to step in because we can't afford anything.

Bottom line, and it kills me to say this, unless this team is gonna have a 120+ payroll within the next 2 years, the Jays have to rebuild. There's no legitimate replacements that will be ready to replace Halladay, Downs, Overbay, Rolen, Barajas & Scutaro. And if you try to sign all those guys, than you enter 2010/2011 with the exact same team but no room to add to it. You guys know I like to be optimistic, but I don't see this team contending in 2010/2011 without a huge bump in payroll or some extremely creative moves to drop payroll and add some key players to the team.

donatolla
07-11-2009, 11:41 AM
Bottom line, and it kills me to say this, unless this team is gonna have a 120+ payroll within the next 2 years, the Jays have to rebuild. There's no legitimate replacements that will be ready to replace Halladay, Downs, Overbay, Rolen, Barajas & Scutaro. And if you try to sign all those guys, than you enter 2010/2011 with the exact same team but no room to add to it. You guys know I like to be optimistic, but I don't see this team contending in 2010/2011 without a huge bump in payroll or some extremely creative moves to drop payroll and add some key players to the team.

I have a couple of thoughts on this...

On the thread in general, I think we're running into the natural bandwagoning that happens. All those who jumped on in April/May are now jumping off, leaving the need to rebuild as their parting shot. I think that there are many out there that understood the makeup of the organization that are not so surprised right now, and do look forward to the next couple years. This was *always* supposed to be a "lets see what we have" year, and starting fast (IMO) actually had a negative effect on the organization as a whole as people started to think kooky things that would have damaged the team's future.

On this post, now that JP has been "Listening" for a couple days, the economic reality has really been brought to the forefront for Toronto. I honestly don't think that we would be talking about trading Halladay right now if there wasn't so much salary tied up in BJ, Wells, Rios and Rolen. It's even worse that Rolen is the only one earning his keep. I don't think this is a secret in baseball circles - one quote was "the Jays are an economic disaster." So while we think that Halladay will bring a fleet of awesomeness, I'm thinking now that that is unlikely. Is the "right deal" really going to arrive if other teams know that JP has to fix the finances?

So you may be right - more may have to be offered to ensure the disaster doesn't get worse. Does that mean we're rebuilding? I don't think so, there are still lots of good pieces left. Refining maybe?

Twitchy
07-11-2009, 01:39 PM
I have a couple of thoughts on this...

On the thread in general, I think we're running into the natural bandwagoning that happens. All those who jumped on in April/May are now jumping off, leaving the need to rebuild as their parting shot. I think that there are many out there that understood the makeup of the organization that are not so surprised right now, and do look forward to the next couple years. This was *always* supposed to be a "lets see what we have" year, and starting fast (IMO) actually had a negative effect on the organization as a whole as people started to think kooky things that would have damaged the team's future.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that I wasn't on or off any bandwagon. I thought this team was better than 500 but not good enough to make the playoffs before the season started. I still stand by that belief. I don't think I was wrong, either.

I didn't know the payroll was going to be as high as it was in 2011 till I took a look at the numbers. Had I known that, I probably would have thought that it was manageable if the Jays did well in 2010. But if Halladay is dealt, clearly that's not going to be the case. And it's probably fair to say a good number of us didn't expect the Doc rumours to start popping up in 2009. Because as you said, the general consensus was that we'd wait for 2010.


On this post, now that JP has been "Listening" for a couple days, the economic reality has really been brought to the forefront for Toronto. I honestly don't think that we would be talking about trading Halladay right now if there wasn't so much salary tied up in BJ, Wells, Rios and Rolen. It's even worse that Rolen is the only one earning his keep. I don't think this is a secret in baseball circles - one quote was "the Jays are an economic disaster." So while we think that Halladay will bring a fleet of awesomeness, I'm thinking now that that is unlikely. Is the "right deal" really going to arrive if other teams know that JP has to fix the finances?

A team may know that JP's finances are screwed, but they also know that a year and a half of Halladay is a pretty significant difference to their team. They're more concerned with winning a WS than JP's finances.

Now, if 2010 rolls around, than yes, you're looking at a deal that resembles Santana's. But since he can help a team this year and next, you can actually get a pretty decent return.



So you may be right - more may have to be offered to ensure the disaster doesn't get worse. Does that mean we're rebuilding? I don't think so, there are still lots of good pieces left. Refining maybe?

Rebuilding, retooling, it's still the same thing in the end. It's just semantics. I'd rather the Jays put the money into fielding a competitive team - even if that means they have a 110-120 million payroll. I still think the Jays have some nice pieces, and can contend with the right moves. But that's going to take more money. If they're not willing or able to do that, than I don't see what other option the Jays have but to rebuild/retool. They can't keep every important player AND add to the team without adding a fair amount of payroll.

oldmanwarrior
07-12-2009, 02:33 PM
If I were you guys, I'd look to move Rolen and Overbay. Shred that salary and get younger. You guys have a pretty good team, and always seem to have good pitching, headlined by Halladay. You'd be seeling high on Rolen, and getting rid of the money owed Overbay--plus losing neither of those guys would set yall back. Call up the Giants, and see what you can get for those guys. They need some sticks, and could use a corner infielder. Here in Texas, we'd be glad to help you stock some prospects, say a power hitting 1st baseman Mitch Moreland, or SS Joaquin Arias, for Jason Frasor. I wouldn't tade Halladay, in fact, I'd continue to build around him. Aces like him, don't grow on trees.

ModusOperandi
07-12-2009, 03:49 PM
I've been arguing for a rebuild since Ricciardi's third year; we haven't made the playoffs yet, its pretty clear that we're right and you're wrong.

1hardcore
07-12-2009, 08:35 PM
i'm with you!!!!


Riciardi when he was in Oakland didn't have the luxury of free agent signings instead built a solid foundation there. Oakland would have a awesome talent, but they would never sign a guy per se Giambi for 20 million a year. It might be too late for riciardi, but if the brass will let him start from scratch trade Halladay for GOOOOOOOD young talent and getting rid of Wells (which would be a huuuuuuuge thing) then they might have something to look upon! And maybe get rid of the athletic trainer too since the injury bug keeps hitting on them :).

A little foot note here... I think it's time to start looking at finesse pitchers and not over powering strike out pitchers. Somebody of the mold of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine etc.

boilerguy2412
07-12-2009, 08:53 PM
Fire JP bring in Pat Gilick as interm GM. Sell of players like Rolen (if he waives his no trade) Scutro, Barjias, Millar, Chavez, Fraser, Carlson, Downs. I doubt u would find any takers for Overbay, Wells. Get all the prospects u can get in return but ones that aren't to far away from playing. Keep Halliday if we can't sign any good FA's next year and we are not in the race trade him at next year's deadline. JP has to go i do not trust this guy to start a rebuild of this team. i honestly think Gilick would come in here as the interm GM and try and do the best he can. This team is done we need to start fresh. This year was supposed to be a rebuild year anyways we haven't been playing good ball for the last 2 months we can't continue to finsih in the middle of the pack ever year and miss out on getting high picks. If we trade this guys away get some decnt players back play some of our young guys i think with the right signings in the off season we might be able to contend next year and keep Halliday. We have some good young cheap pitching and whenever u have those things u will always have a chance to contend. That is just what i think

dman_39
07-14-2009, 11:31 AM
I honesty think the team is making a mistake if they rebuild. They already have a solid core of younger players, what they need to is to retool a little. It looks like Roy gone is all but done. That sucks to be honest, especially if J.P is the one who pulls the trigger. Who is going to be our number 1 now? I guess we will go into next years spring with yet another question mark. Man oh man, I love this team but boy do they frustrate me.

MaHaRaJaH
07-14-2009, 12:09 PM
I honesty think the team is making a mistake if they rebuild. They already have a solid core of younger players, what they need to is to retool a little. It looks like Roy gone is all but done. That sucks to be honest, especially if J.P is the one who pulls the trigger. Who is going to be our number 1 now? I guess we will go into next years spring with yet another question mark. Man oh man, I love this team but boy do they frustrate me.

I agree with you. A large part of the team's success depended on:
a) healthy pitching
b) production from Wells and Rios (not so much Rios, but I'd like him to do better)

If we don't have both of them, how can we compete?

CaptainBolduke
07-14-2009, 12:17 PM
Aplogy accepted Stealingsigns. All us die hard Blue Jay fans know the same pain you are going through. I apologize as well for my last one because I came off as a bit harsh. Anyway, we can sell high on guys like Scutaro and Rolen and maybe even Overbay because we have solid prospects that may be ready by next season and we could get some good talent in return but we cannot sell Halladay and if we want to compete we need to keep Wells and Rios though I would love to get rid of Wells contract. For next season I think Travis Snider will be ready to be up and effective and Marcum may not be a #2 but the way Romero has pitched although hes young he could probably be an effective #2 and Marcum could be a good #3. If all our pitchers can be healthy next season and we grab some good bats I really do like our chances. I do think we need to call up some guys next season besides Snider. We need to make room for Buck Coats because he can be a very good lead off hitter with his ability to make contact and his speed. In theory if Snider and Coats can both be effective by next season that would make us able to sell Wells for some talent so we can have room for both of them. I also think one of our 1st baseman could be ready by next season. More likely Dopirak because I think David Cooper is still a couple years away. Maybe if we can trade Rolen or Scutaro or Wells and manage to find a way to get a shortstop like J.J. Hardy or Troy Tulowitzki that would help even more. Who knows. But JP needs to make some moves.


Halladay has publically said he is open to the possibility of a trade to a contender.

CaptainBolduke
07-14-2009, 12:20 PM
I agree with you. A large part of the team's success depended on:
a) healthy pitching
b) production from Wells and Rios (not so much Rios, but I'd like him to do better)
If we don't have both of them, how can we compete?

Rios' OPS is .010 points higher then Wells'. Statistically it's a dead-heat between those two players.

Everyone here knows we weren't supposed to compete this year right?

dman_39
07-15-2009, 08:33 AM
That's true they said we would not compete but there is no guarentee we will compete next year. Especially if we lose Roy there is no way we can compete next year. Even if they get a boat load of prospects it will take time for them to make it to the majors etc. It almost always take young kids a couple of years to get going.

JUMPMANWALLY
07-15-2009, 10:06 AM
seriously we wouldnt be talking about this if we added 2 pcs in the off season.bring back most of this squad next yr add a power bat or 2....thats it you take this group we have when healthy and add a adam dunn to the mix i think u see alot different results. i am just using dunn as an example a guy who can put 40 out of the yard and drive in 110-120 rbis-

dman_39
07-15-2009, 01:40 PM
Exactly they should have done something in the offseason. Even now, just retool add a bat or a pitcher, keep Roy, finish strong and sign a few more pieces in the offseason.

Jaysobsessed
07-15-2009, 02:11 PM
I am as big of fan of the Jays as the rest and even more of a fan of Roy but how do you guys think that we can contend for it all when we haven't even made a post season run in how many years? I don't deny that a few FA adds could have got the jays to the post season but fact is a run for the championship is a long shot and not likely to happen this year or next without some major changes.
There are a lot of good young players coming up in the jays farm system but this year it wont happen so as much as I love seeing the doc take the mound every single time he pitches what separates us from a contending team is having the balls to trade him when his value is highest. Same thing would have been true with Rios. Imagine we had traded him for Lincecum?

If you look at the jays lineup 2 years from now with all the players who are signed for then (good talent), trading one player for up to 4 great prospects could make this team a contender at that time.

Everyone compares to the Rays last year but they did have the balls to trade away their best guys to build the potent offensive team they have now

dman_39
07-15-2009, 02:16 PM
I would just accept any real direction instead of meddling around the middle. They need to fire J.P (I know we all sound like broken records) and get someone in their with a new vision.