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Zep
06-22-2009, 12:06 PM
C & P'd from below

Statcorner Glossary (http://statcorner.com/glossary.html)

FanGraphs Glossary (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/)


Courtesy of the links above:

BABIP - Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitcher's average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.

EqA - Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.

OBP - On-base percentage. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). For pitchers, OBP is on base percentage allowed.

SLG% - Slugging percentage (hitters) or slugging percentage allowed (pitchers). Total bases divided by at-bats.

OPS - On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage

VORP - Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

BB/9 - Walks allowed per every 9 innings.

K/9 - Strikeouts per every 9 innings.

K/BB - Strikeout to Walk ratio

WHIP - Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched.

wOBA - The statistic wOBA (weight on base average) is now available in the player pages, leaderboards, team pages, my team pages, and the projections. wOBA, created by Tom Tango, is a version of linear weights that has been weighted to fit an OBP scale. The weights have been properly adjusted by season and for the minor leagues by season and by league.

Linear Weights - This is kind of long winded, but go here (http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Linear_Weights) for an explanation.

There's many more, we'll add as they come up.

Seamhead
06-22-2009, 01:16 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

Seamhead
06-22-2009, 01:20 PM
Have any questions that aren't relevant in any future/present thread? Then ask them here. Someone will either answer them, or better yet, link you somewhere where your question will be answered.

Oh, and there's already a good mailbag here:

http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Mailbags

Though, this is more advanced stuff.

Jilly Bohnson
06-22-2009, 01:27 PM
Yeah, we're going to make this the simple question thread. What's OPS? What is UZR? Quick and easy stuff go in here, harder stuff can get it's own topic.

Seamhead
06-22-2009, 01:33 PM
Agreed. Feel free to change the title to "Simple Questions Thread".

Pavelb1
06-22-2009, 01:50 PM
Woba please. I consider myself fairly smart, but I can't wrap my head around it as described in The Book or by Rob Neyer, so in simple terms please.

poodski
06-22-2009, 01:51 PM
I will start it off.

How is UZR/150 figured?

Because it sure as hell isnt current UZR figured over 150 games. At least not on fangraphs it isnt.

For example. Last year the Royals had a positive UZR, but a negative UZR/150. Or like this year Nick Swisher has a -.3 UZR in RF, but a 2.6 UZR/150.

Jilly Bohnson
06-22-2009, 01:56 PM
Courtesy of the links above:

BABIP - Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitcher's average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.

EqA - Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.

OBP - On-base percentage. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). For pitchers, OBP is on base percentage allowed.

SLG% - Slugging percentage (hitters) or slugging percentage allowed (pitchers). Total bases divided by at-bats.

OPS - On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage

VORP - Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

BB/9 - Walks allowed per every 9 innings.

K/9 - Strikeouts per every 9 innings.

K/BB - Strikeout to Walk ratio

WHIP - Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched.

wOBA - The statistic wOBA (weight on base average) is now available in the player pages, leaderboards, team pages, my team pages, and the projections. wOBA, created by Tom Tango, is a version of linear weights that has been weighted to fit an OBP scale. The weights have been properly adjusted by season and for the minor leagues by season and by league.

Linear Weights - This is kind of long winded, but go here (http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Linear_Weights) for an explanation.

There's many more, we'll add as they come up.

Jilly Bohnson
06-22-2009, 02:04 PM
Woba please. I consider myself fairly smart, but I can't wrap my head around it as described in The Book or by Rob Neyer, so in simple terms please.

Okay, so basically it goes like this. You know how stuff like a single, a double, a walk, and a homerun, etc. each have a run expectancy attached to them? That is, for example, a single is worth let's say half a run, meaning for every single that is hit it generally leads to half a run scored on average. Well what wOBA does, is it takes all of what a player did, all their singles, doubles, homers, etc., attaches their run expectancy for each of those events, and then multiplies them by certain mulitpliers that make wOBA on the same scale as OBP to make it easier to understand. So for example about .335 would be average, .350 would be pretty good, and .400 would f'ing awesome.

Zep
06-22-2009, 02:39 PM
wOBA's actual formula looks like this in case you're ever bored and want to calculate for yourself:


wOBA = (0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B +1.95xHR) / PA

That is, (.72 x Non-Intentional Bases on balls + .75 x Hit-by-Pitch + .90 x Singles + .92 x Reached Base on Error + 1.24 x Doubles + 1.56 x Triples + 1.95 x Home Runs)/Total Plate appearances.

wOBA (from my understanding) is basically OBP, but each specific event that leads to a batter reaching base is given a specific value, or weight (a triple is worth more than a double, a double is worth more than a walk, etc.).

Jilly Bohnson
06-22-2009, 02:41 PM
I will start it off.

How is UZR/150 figured?

Because it sure as hell isnt current UZR figured over 150 games. At least not on fangraphs it isnt.

For example. Last year the Royals had a positive UZR, but a negative UZR/150. Or like this year Nick Swisher has a -.3 UZR in RF, but a 2.6 UZR/150.

That's a really good question. I'm not sure, the only thing I'm thinking is maybe it is influenced by what they have done in the past? So Nick's got a -.3, but in the past he's done quite well in RF, a 9.3 in his career. So perhaps for partial seasons, a player's UZR/150 has a component of what would be expected given their previous performance?

Pavelb1
06-22-2009, 02:41 PM
Okay, so basically it goes like this. You know how stuff like a single, a double, a walk, and a homerun, etc. each have a run expectancy attached to them? That is, for example, a single is worth let's say half a run, meaning for every single that is hit it generally leads to half a run scored on average. Well what wOBA does, is it takes all of what a player did, all their singles, doubles, homers, etc., attaches their run expectancy for each of those events, and then multiplies them by certain mulitpliers that make wOBA on the same scale as OBP to make it easier to understand. So for example about .335 would be average, .350 would be pretty good, and .400 would f'ing awesome.

ahhhh....got it. Thanks!

homie564
06-22-2009, 02:50 PM
Ok Sabermetrics + me dont click.. except for the simple things... heres a question i want to know... what sabermetric stat is best to determine a players overall value and skill to a team?

-Lavigne43-
06-22-2009, 03:09 PM
Ok Sabermetrics + me dont click.. except for the simple things... heres a question i want to know... what sabermetric stat is best to determine a players overall value and skill to a team?

I would look at a multitude of stats to determine a players value. The best available offensive stat in my opinion is wOBA with UZR being the best available defensive metric. For pitching I like to look at FIP, BABIP and their K/BB.

VORP tries to determine a players value to a team but it does not take into account defense.

There is also WAR which weights wOBA and UZR in a formula to calculate how many wins a position player adds to a team. There is also a formula to calculate WAR for pitchers. I am not too familiar with this stat though

Driven
06-22-2009, 03:24 PM
Yeah, we're going to make this the simple question thread. What's OPS? What is UZR? Quick and easy stuff go in here, harder stuff can get it's own topic.
Maybe a stickied thread of a glossary of terms would be helpful?

EDIT: Nevermind you guys are way ahead of me.

Driven
06-22-2009, 03:26 PM
Yeah, I like this idea. Maybe edit all of the terms into the first post just for reference.

Rylinkus
06-22-2009, 04:15 PM
wOBA's actual formula looks like this in case you're ever bored and want to calculate for yourself:



That is, (.72 x Non-Intentional Bases on balls + .75 x Hit-by-Pitch + .90 x Singles + .92 x Reached Base on Error + 1.24 x Doubles + 1.56 x Triples + 1.95 x Home Runs)/Total Plate appearances.

wOBA (from my understanding) is basically OBP, but each specific event that leads to a batter reaching base is given a specific value, or weight (a triple is worth more than a double, a double is worth more than a walk, etc.).

Is that the fangraph formula or the SC one?

Actually, I'll expand. Fangraphs uses a different wOBA formula than Statcorner. Which one is the better one in people's opinions? And why? Perhaps this isn't a simple question and warrants it's own thread.

It does bring up the issue with Saber stuff. .BA is, well .BA. Everyone computes it the same way. The fact that wOBA fluctuates in the way it's acquired probably turns some people off to the concept.

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 04:32 PM
http://statcorner.com/glossary.html

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 04:41 PM
I will start it off.

How is UZR/150 figured?

Because it sure as hell isnt current UZR figured over 150 games. At least not on fangraphs it isnt.

For example. Last year the Royals had a positive UZR, but a negative UZR/150. Or like this year Nick Swisher has a -.3 UZR in RF, but a 2.6 UZR/150.

It is UZR over 150 games. But it's 150 defensive games. It's based upon the expected chances at their relative position. Meaning if a 2B plays 9 innings but gets no balls hit to him, he really didn't even play a defensive game.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=589&position=OF#fielding

Right at the beginning of the right columns, it says "DG," that of course stands for Defensive Games.

The reason the UZR/150 can come out so weird like that is because they simply don't extrapolate UZR. They extrapolate errors, range, arm, etc.


Ok Sabermetrics + me dont click.. except for the simple things... heres a question i want to know... what sabermetric stat is best to determine a players overall value and skill to a team?

Lavigne pretty much had it.

WAR is the best stat in measuring a player's overall value to his team at the moment. Of course, you need to use the best stats in order to measure it correctly.

A combination of UZR and +/- (you must pay for this though) for defense (some use the Fans' Scouting Report, probably go over this later).

wOBA is the way to go for offense.

And FIP or tRA for pitchers. Some like to use ERA with FIP, but tRA is probably the way to go as well.

The whole concept of WAR takes a while to explain, and honestly probably deserves its own thread. I believe seamhead made a post about it in the MLB forum, maybe he could repost it?


Is that the fangraph formula or the SC one?

Actually, I'll expand. Fangraphs uses a different wOBA formula than Statcorner. Which one is the better one in people's opinions? And why? Perhaps this isn't a simple question and warrants it's own thread.

It does bring up the issue with Saber stuff. .BA is, well .BA. Everyone computes it the same way. The fact that wOBA fluctuates in the way it's acquired probably turns some people off to the concept.

I believe the major difference is that fangraphs incorporates stolen bases into its equation. Everything else is just alterations of the historical data. In the longrun, the difference shouldn't be large. I prefer SC simply because of wOBA*.

Seamhead
06-22-2009, 04:41 PM
Okay, so basically it goes like this. You know how stuff like a single, a double, a walk, and a homerun, etc. each have a run expectancy attached to them? That is, for example, a single is worth let's say half a run, meaning for every single that is hit it generally leads to half a run scored on average. Well what wOBA does, is it takes all of what a player did, all their singles, doubles, homers, etc., attaches their run expectancy for each of those events, and then multiplies them by certain mulitpliers that make wOBA on the same scale as OBP to make it easier to understand. So for example about .335 would be average, .350 would be pretty good, and .400 would f'ing awesome.

And run expectancy = move over value (slugging in a way) + get on-base value (OBP).

It's context-neutral, meaning it doesn't take into account any type of situation. It's just the marginal value of the event given a neutral environment.

Seamhead
06-22-2009, 04:48 PM
Here's my WAR thread:

http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=263993

But, if you really want to understand WAR, read these two posts (one is for pitcher's, and the other is hitter's):

Pitcher WAR (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/20/919602/war-lords-of-the-diamond-pitchers)

Position Player WAR (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/12/906943/war-lords-of-the-diamond-position)

Seamhead
06-22-2009, 04:57 PM
Is that the fangraph formula or the SC one?

Actually, I'll expand. Fangraphs uses a different wOBA formula than Statcorner. Which one is the better one in people's opinions? And why? Perhaps this isn't a simple question and warrants it's own thread.

Because Fangraphs incorporates SBs and CSs, and does not incorporate NIBB and ROE (or one of the two; I forgot). SC does not incorporate baserunning, and does incorporate NIBB and ROE.

Basically, SC sticks with the original wOBA formula. The NIBB and ROE part is really not too much of a problem, though; it's the base-stealing. I don't feel it has a place in a hitting metric.

Plus, Fangraphs doesn't park-adjust wOBA. It parks adjust wRAA, which is the counting metric based off of wOBA. SC does have a park-adjusted version of wOBA, and a counting version.


It does bring up the issue with Saber stuff. .BA is, well .BA. Everyone computes it the same way. The fact that wOBA fluctuates in the way it's acquired probably turns some people off to the concept.

Yeah, I agree. I meant to post this at The Book Blog, but I forgot to.

Jilly Bohnson
06-22-2009, 05:39 PM
And run expectancy = move over value (slugging in a way) + get on-base value (OBP).

It's context-neutral, meaning it doesn't take into account any type of situation. It's just the marginal value of the event given a neutral environment.

Yeah, good point. Most run expectancy charts talk about the environment, so how many outs and runner on there are, but wOBA doesn't. That's an important distinction.

jetsfan89
06-22-2009, 05:43 PM
How exactly does FIP and tRA work? What are they measuring and why is it better than ERA?

Jilly Bohnson
06-22-2009, 06:04 PM
How exactly does FIP and tRA work? What are they measuring and why is it better than ERA?

FIP is based just on strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and homeruns allowed. Those are in general the main things a pitcher has under their control. It attempts to take defense out of the equation. I don't like it too much because it ignores things like GB/FB ratio, and also shortchanges the rare guy that can sustain a below average hit rate regardless of defense.

tRA takes FIP a step further. It I believe attaches run values to batted ball types, ground balls, fly balls, line drives, strikeouts, homers, etc., and calculates expected ERA based on those.

Seamhead
06-22-2009, 06:07 PM
It's not ERA. It'd just be RA.

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 06:13 PM
How exactly does FIP and tRA work? What are they measuring and why is it better than ERA?

JB explained it basically. Both stats eliminate defense, as FIP's definition is "a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible."

They're measuring the same thing ERA does, runs allowed (tRA is on a slightly different scale). The reason they're better than ERA is because ERA fluctuates too much. ERA and WHIP depend on defense too much, as well as park factors and in small sample sizes, luck. Over time ERA isn't a terrible statistic, and for team ERA over a season, it's team-dependent as it looks at pitchers and their defense.

jetsfan89
06-22-2009, 07:11 PM
Will it account for groundball pitchers who don't strike out a ton of guys but get lots of grounders?

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 07:18 PM
What do you mean? Groundballs provide the smallest run expectancy for balls in play (with the exception of infield pop-ups of course), so it wouldn't be a terrible thing. It depends on your definition of "a ton" and "lots". Give me a pitcher for example.

jetsfan89
06-22-2009, 07:30 PM
Never mind I understand. Thanks alot guys :)

whitesoxfan83
06-22-2009, 07:53 PM
Creating a sticky thread of all the formulas for different stats would be pretty sweet (Even real basic stuff like OBP and SLG). It could be something that would be locked and stickied, where whoever creates it could just post the different formulas and people could use it as a reference.

I really understand this stuff a lot better when i see the formulas laid out, i have a feeling im not the only one.

k_rock923
06-22-2009, 08:25 PM
What do you mean? Groundballs provide the smallest run expectancy for balls in play (with the exception of infield pop-ups of course), so it wouldn't be a terrible thing. It depends on your definition of "a ton" and "lots". Give me a pitcher for example.

I'm a little confused on that, actually. In the explanation, FIP was derived from strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and homeruns. If you have a pitcher that predominately gives up ground balls, does he get shortchanged?

I guess it depends on whether a ground ball pitcher is really that much better than a fly ball pitcher. The conventional wisdom says that he is, but are they really more effective? If so, it would seem that FIP doesn't give them credit for that effectiveness. If not, I suppose it's a moot point.

Reading the post further, are these just natural criticisms of FIP that tRA address?

iam brett favre
06-22-2009, 08:29 PM
Whats a sabermetric?

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 08:33 PM
Creating a sticky thread of all the formulas for different stats would be pretty sweet (Even real basic stuff like OBP and SLG). It could be something that would be locked and stickied, where whoever creates it could just post the different formulas and people could use it as a reference.

I really understand this stuff a lot better when i see the formulas laid out, i have a feeling im not the only one.

That shall be done, I'll maybe post them in the glossaries thread and then someone can edit them into the OP.


I'm a little confused on that, actually. In the explanation, FIP was derived from strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and homeruns. If you have a pitcher that predominately gives up ground balls, does he get shortchanged?

I guess it depends on whether a ground ball pitcher is really that much better than a fly ball pitcher. The conventional wisdom says that he is, but are they really more effective? If so, it would seem that FIP doesn't give them credit for that effectiveness. If not, I suppose it's a moot point.

Reading the post further, are these just natural criticisms of FIP that tRA address?

Yes that was my mistake, I was thinking in terms of tRA. Yes, FIP is weak because it doesn't account for those things, and you're exactly correct - tRA takes it one step further.

iam brett favre
06-22-2009, 08:38 PM
Seriously though, what is tRA? I use it, but honestly I dont know what it means.

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 08:43 PM
We don't really have a widely available coherent metric for pitchers which tells us how good a pitcher is, independent of his home park and the defence behind (and if anyone feels tempted to say 'ERA' here, read Dave Cameron's article on pitcher evaluation first). FIP and xFIP are the most commonly used general pitching stats we have, but they suffer from the limitation of only considering strikeouts, walks, hit batsmen and home runs. We know there are other things that are mostly under a pitcher's control, and we also know roughly how much control a pitcher asserts over said events. The hope for tRA then was to construct a metric which takes into account every action a pitcher is responsible for and turns those numbers into runs and outs based around a highly logical and transparent mathematical framework.

That's the introduction from StatCorner.

The idea is that it measures all events in which the only thing going into the calculation happen from when the pitcher throws the ball, to which the batter either swings or doesn't swing.

Everything that happens from then on is completely out of the pitcher's control (excluding his defense).

k_rock923
06-22-2009, 08:48 PM
How was the relative amount of control a pitcher has over an event determined?

Since I keep asking questions about pitching stats, are there any web pages I should look at for information?

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 08:52 PM
Sure. Read this: http://statcorner.com/tRAabout.html

As for your question about amount of control, what do you mean?

A pitcher can control the pitch he throws, and he has influence on whether it's a strike, ball, groundball, line drive, flyball, etc. After that, who knows what happens. Pop ups fall, line drives get caught, flyballs go out in certain ballparks. Over time, all these events have a certain run value.

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 08:55 PM
Also, I think we might be leaving simple questions behind :p

k_rock923
06-22-2009, 08:55 PM
Sure. Read this: http://statcorner.com/tRAabout.html

As for your question about amount of control, what do you mean?

A pitcher can control the pitch he throws, and he has influence on whether it's a strike, ball, groundball, line drive, flyball, etc. After that, who knows what happens. Pop ups fall, line drives get caught, flyballs go out in certain ballparks. Over time, all these events have a certain run value.

Thanks for the link. I was referring to this line in the explanation:


We know there are other things that are mostly under a pitcher's control, and we also know roughly how much control a pitcher asserts over said events.

How do we know how much control a pitcher has over certain events. I gather from the explanation, that these other factors are essentially things that the pitcher does, without the influence of the defense aside from the following: strikeouts, walks, hit batsmen and home runs.

edit: Yea, sorry. I'm getting a little off track of the topic here. Maybe a mod should snip these posts that veered off of simple questions into another thread.

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 09:00 PM
Thanks for the link. I was referring to this line in the explanation:



How do we know how much control a pitcher has over certain events. I gather from the explanation, that these other factors are essentially things that the pitcher does, without the influence of the defense aside from the following: strikeouts, walks, hit batsmen and home runs.

edit: Yea, sorry. I'm getting a little off track of the topic here. Maybe a mod should snip these posts that veered off of simple questions into another thread.

I'm not entirely sure I get what you're asking, but this is what it sounds like. You want to know how much control a pitcher has on those events, like groundball, flyball, etc.? Like an actual value or what?

k_rock923
06-22-2009, 09:11 PM
I'm not entirely sure I get what you're asking, but this is what it sounds like. You want to know how much control a pitcher has on those events, like groundball, flyball, etc.? Like an actual value or what?

Yea, that's about it. It sounds as if they're assigning some type of quantifiable value as to 'how much' control a pitcher has over an outcome. So, 'a pitcher controls n percent of all of the variables that determine whether a given pitch is a ground ball or fly ball etc.'

Now, it's entirely possible that I'm reading into it too much and I'm hung up on the wording of that introduction. If so, what is that line actually saying? Thanks.

Gigantes4Life
06-22-2009, 09:18 PM
I can't say for sure, but based on the next paragraph I believe that when they say mostly, that it depends on the type of batter the pitcher is facing. So over time, we can assume that the events are predominantly in the pitcher's control, and there's no reason to read that much farther into it.

The other thing that they may be considering is if the ballpark affects how the pitcher throws, but for the sake of simplicity they simply let it go.

k_rock923
06-22-2009, 09:20 PM
Okay, thanks. I think that I'm misinterpreting what the text is trying to say. I'll stop hijacking the 'simple questions' thread with small details now :D

C1Bman88
06-23-2009, 12:28 PM
Actually, I'll expand. Fangraphs uses a different wOBA formula than Statcorner. Which one is the better one in people's opinions? And why? Perhaps this isn't a simple question and warrants it's own thread.

Fangraphs' is better, IMO. Statcorner doesn't include SB and CS, but incorporates ROE. And I honestly don't know if they use the correct RV scale, because it changes from year to year. I know Fangraphs does.

papipapsmanny
06-23-2009, 06:47 PM
Alright I have multiple questions, of course one relating too tRA which was asked before but not really answered because the thread died.

Alright so you now how it shows a pitcher's "true talent level". Well my questions are why does that true talent level change every year, or if in fact it takes a career to figure out the pitchers "true talent level" then would the stat not be as useful if it is after the fact? Again i just have a problem with the phrase true talent level. I think it should be like tru production level for a season.

And another is why does it seem like VORP is used so rarely? I really like the stat but it seems like its just never used.

papipapsmanny
06-23-2009, 06:58 PM
and this is just something i kind of came up with and it may sound stupid.

But is there anyway to figure out how man runs a pitcher is expected to give up with specific defenses? like to actual team defenses?

Like this pitcher should give up this many runs with the Red Sox defense, and this is what he would give up with the yankees defense? So you could figure out if a pitcher would be more valuable to one team as opposed to another?

And dont worry about saying its a stupid question because i feel there is a good chance it is.

Matt-the-great
06-23-2009, 07:26 PM
when did this become a forum? i am very excited to see this.

I have recently been getting into sabermetrics pretty hard. I now am a member on Fangraphs, I love their articles and analysis.

It is nice to get away from the mundane realm of the general MLB forum.

C1Bman88
06-23-2009, 08:18 PM
And another is why does it seem like VORP is used so rarely? I really like the stat but it seems like its just never used.

I'm uncertain as to what the precise formula is for pitchers, but the formula for position players is downright terrible. VORP uses the most basic form of Bill James' Runs Created formula- which is nothing more than AB*OBP*SLG. That's all. Then it uses a replacement level of ~80%, when it should be more around 73-78%.

As for positional adjustments, VORP has a bad habit of overvaluing first basemen and undervaluing catchers, among other things. Just stay away from it. It'll undervalue the value of a walk just as much as OPS does.

Baseball Prospectus also has RARP, which is essentially the same thing, but they use a different run estimator- EqR. While it's a step up from basic RC, it still undervalues walks.


and this is just something i kind of came up with and it may sound stupid.

But is there anyway to figure out how man runs a pitcher is expected to give up with specific defenses? like to actual team defenses?

Like this pitcher should give up this many runs with the Red Sox defense, and this is what he would give up with the yankees defense? So you could figure out if a pitcher would be more valuable to one team as opposed to another?

And dont worry about saying its a stupid question because i feel there is a good chance it is.

It's not a stupid question. You'd need specific batted ball data, along with player data for each specific vector under their control. Then you use the player's probability of making the play and adjust accordingly, after putting in park effects.

What makes it even more complex is that you'd have to simulate the pitcher against the other team- since you're placing the pitcher on another team, that means he'll be facing different hitters at different points in the season. Also, since we're changing the lineup the pitcher is facing AND the defense, that means a simple single allowed changes the entire course of the game.

You'd essentially have to simulate the whole thing (a la Baseball Mogul), or use an odds ratio (like log5) exhaustively.

It's best to just place the pitcher in front of an "average" defense based on the run values and out frequencies of each event the pitcher surrenders. And that's what tRA does. But it's still an imperfect model.

Matt-the-great
06-23-2009, 09:00 PM
i haven't looked through this thread to see if this has been asked/answered...

i am wondering how a ball is deemed to be a line drive?

Gigantes4Life
06-24-2009, 03:14 AM
Alright I have multiple questions, of course one relating too tRA which was asked before but not really answered because the thread died.

Alright so you now how it shows a pitcher's "true talent level". Well my questions are why does that true talent level change every year, or if in fact it takes a career to figure out the pitchers "true talent level" then would the stat not be as useful if it is after the fact? Again i just have a problem with the phrase true talent level. I think it should be like tru production level for a season.

You're somewhat nitpicking, but the truth is a player's talent level is ALWAYS changing.

tRA doesn't necessarily show true talent level. As the primer explains, the rates can regress a lot so tRA* is the best measurement of true talent level (of a season).


tRA* is not a measurement of a pitcher's results per se, but should be seen as the system's best estimate of a pitcher's true talent level based on his stats in any given year at any given level. tRA* does not consider a pitcher's statistics from other years and leagues.


And another is why does it seem like VORP is used so rarely? I really like the stat but it seems like its just never used.

It's flawed. It also only considers offense for position players.


and this is just something i kind of came up with and it may sound stupid.

But is there anyway to figure out how man runs a pitcher is expected to give up with specific defenses? like to actual team defenses?

Like this pitcher should give up this many runs with the Red Sox defense, and this is what he would give up with the yankees defense? So you could figure out if a pitcher would be more valuable to one team as opposed to another?

And dont worry about saying its a stupid question because i feel there is a good chance it is.

Well say you're using a projection system. Perhaps ZiPS and FIP. Since FIP is defense independent, you can use fielding projections to add or subtract to the runs. Say a guy's FIP is 3.00 and he pitches 180 innings (60 runs allowed). You could see the fielder's projected +/- runs in 180 innings and then add or subtract it from 60. Obviously there's more to it since some pitchers get more groundballs, etc. so you'd have to look into it to be accurate.


i haven't looked through this thread to see if this has been asked/answered...

i am wondering how a ball is deemed to be a line drive?

MLB.com? :shrug:

Whoever is watching the game data really. Not sure though.

viktor06
06-24-2009, 07:40 AM
Regarding why players have big swings in performance from season to season - 700PA nad 200IP are really small samples when it comes to statistical analysis...just calculate for yourself what the difference for a hitter is if he has 10more singles fall in, or 10doubles, or if he flies out to warning track instead of hitting it out 5times....

That's the biggest problem and reason why looking at stuff like LD%, hit ball speed, plate discipline is important...because if you are unlucky, you will have bad numbers over 700PA even if you are Albert Pujols

k_rock923
06-24-2009, 05:54 PM
I saw IsoP mentioned in the formula's thread. Can someone give me a quick description of what it measures and what it tells us?

Gigantes4Life
06-25-2009, 04:49 AM
IsoP is the same thing as ISO as far as I know, and stands for Isolated Power. It measures raw power, and is the difference between SLG and BA.

Some variations account triples as the same as doubles (crediting them to speed more than power) making the calculation (2B+3B+3(HR))/AB

Matt-the-great
06-25-2009, 06:16 AM
the other day i asked how a ball is deemed to be a line drive?

i am wondering if that is determined by some program/site that measures height, distance, and trajectory of each batted ball? and thereby classifies balls as line drives or not....

Zep
06-26-2009, 01:03 PM
I was trying to read up on tRA, and found this (http://statcorner.com/tRAabout.html), which was extremely helpful, however I also found this (http://statcorner.com/tRAabout.html) regarding FIP. Which metric do you all feel is better for determining a pitcher's value, and why?

Gigantes4Life
06-26-2009, 03:26 PM
Definitely tRA, as it considers all part of a pitcher's game. FIP is limited, while tRA accounts for everything.

papipapsmanny
06-27-2009, 04:39 PM
i just don't like tRA according to it Lester is having a "better" year than Beckett, but that isnt the case at all, and I wouldn't have to look at any stats to know that.

yea maybe lester's K rates are better but he hasn't been unlucky he has just been god awful up until the start of june.

Gigantes4Life
06-27-2009, 05:11 PM
Sure, believe what you want. But Lester's .340 BABIP suggests that his BAA is too high, and he K's 9/9 IP, and only walks 3. He also has a very high GB rate, which is always a plus. Beckett's numbers are basically identical though, he just hasn't been lucky nor unlucky. And you're nitpicking, the difference between their tRA is .03.

papipapsmanny
06-27-2009, 07:03 PM
ok? but beckett has done better.....

maybe tRA says lester is supposed to be better but he hasn't been

Gigantes4Life
06-27-2009, 07:25 PM
That's your opinion.

Lester K's more and gives up fewer line drives. Doesn't sound like Beckett is that much better.

C1Bman88
06-27-2009, 07:44 PM
ok? but beckett has done better.....

maybe tRA says lester is supposed to be better but he hasn't been

This is one of those instances where you're supposed to support your claims with evidence.

papipapsmanny
06-27-2009, 08:57 PM
my evidence is their ERAs, and ERA+

Beckett give up fewer hits and homeruns per nine innings, their walk rates are the same. The only thing lester has is more Ks per nine innings.

Okay so tRA is saying that lester should be better than beckett right now... well he isn't.

Zep
06-27-2009, 09:59 PM
Maybe I'm just an idiot or maybe I'm just blind, but where can I find home road splits for any given player? I'm looking at fangraphs and I must be just missing it.:confused:

-Lavigne43-
06-27-2009, 10:46 PM
Maybe I'm just an idiot or maybe I'm just blind, but where can I find home road splits for any given player? I'm looking at fangraphs and I must be just missing it.:confused:

baseball-reference has it for general stats

C1Bman88
06-28-2009, 02:04 AM
my evidence is their ERAs, and ERA+

Beckett give up fewer hits and homeruns per nine innings, their walk rates are the same. The only thing lester has is more Ks per nine innings.

Okay so tRA is saying that lester should be better than beckett right now... well he isn't.

Your evidence is ERA and ERA+? This is a Sabermetrics forum; not the main MLB forum. Come on now.

Beckett giving up fewer hits has absolutely nothing to do with anything. tRA doesn't care about how many hits a pitcher gives up, and that's the whole point of DIPS theory. The pitcher doesn't control how many balls in play against them are converted into outs. Lester has a .340 BABIP against him, when he's typically in the .290 range. What does that tell us?

More hits are falling in than usual. That doesn't mean that Lester's not as good as Beckett, just that more hits are falling in. That's something Lester doesn't have control over.

Beckett has a LD% of 22.4 as compared to Lester's 20.5. That means hitters are making harder contact against Beckett than they are with Lester. Lester's also striking out 4.3% more hitters faced than Beckett is, while maintaining a slightly lower walk rate.

You're complaining about a metric that has Jonathan Lester as being 0.1 Runs Above Average better than Josh Beckett. Talk about nitpicking.

papipapsmanny
06-28-2009, 10:49 AM
im not nitpicking its that fact that it has Lester above beckett at all in the first place. I never said Lester isn't as good as beckett, but he hasn't done as well as him.

yeah more hits are falling in for lester because he isn't pitching as well. Everyone keeps making good contact lester wheter its a linedrive or a really hard grounder up the middle or through the hole. Or the fact that he is on pace to give up about 26 or 27 homeruns.

again its why I don't like tRA nothing should be expected to happen based off certain numbers thats why the game is played

C1Bman88
06-28-2009, 12:10 PM
again its why I don't like tRA nothing should be expected to happen based off certain numbers thats why the game is played

Then why the hell do you bother asking questions about tRA if you've already made up your mind?

papipapsmanny
06-28-2009, 02:57 PM
again im not going to agree with everything in here if i did what would be the point of posting?

C1Bman88
06-28-2009, 04:56 PM
again im not going to agree with everything in here if i did what would be the point of posting?

If you don't agree with something, at least provide sound evidence as to why you disagree with it. Don't cite an archaic statistic that everyone knows is extremely flawed to prove your point. You're arguing because tRA says that Jonathan Lester is 0.1 runs better than Josh Beckett. Not 1 run, not 5 runs, not 10 runs. 0.1 runs.

Gigantes4Life
06-28-2009, 07:49 PM
im not nitpicking its that fact that it has Lester above beckett at all in the first place. I never said Lester isn't as good as beckett, but he hasn't done as well as him.

yeah more hits are falling in for lester because he isn't pitching as well. Everyone keeps making good contact lester wheter its a linedrive or a really hard grounder up the middle or through the hole. Or the fact that he is on pace to give up about 26 or 27 homeruns.

again its why I don't like tRA nothing should be expected to happen based off certain numbers thats why the game is played

You have no proof of this.

-Lavigne43-
06-28-2009, 11:17 PM
im not nitpicking its that fact that it has Lester above beckett at all in the first place. I never said Lester isn't as good as beckett, but he hasn't done as well as him.

yeah more hits are falling in for lester because he isn't pitching as well. Everyone keeps making good contact lester wheter its a linedrive or a really hard grounder up the middle or through the hole. Or the fact that he is on pace to give up about 26 or 27 homeruns.

again its why I don't like tRA nothing should be expected to happen based off certain numbers thats why the game is played

Players are obviously not making good contact off of him given his great K rates. He suffered a ridiculously high BABIP the first two months of the season. I remember it was around the .400 mark because I used that as one of the reasons not to worry about him earlier this year. That has come down which has resulted in him having much better end results this month. He was also giving up a ridiculously high amount of home runs per fly balls during the first few months of the season. I remember that it was around 1 home run for every 4 fly balls at one point this season. That decreased, like expected as the season went on. He only has given up two home runs in June vs 11 in April and May.

And of course things can be predicted based off of certain numbers in and outside of baseball. These types of things are why the Red Sox have become such a power house since the new ownership has been put into place.

papipapsmanny
06-29-2009, 12:04 AM
You have no proof of this.

yes i do whether "luckier" or not beckett has outproduced lester.

tRA doesnt really show how a pitcher has produced. It just shows really what was supposed to happen or expected to happen.

the name of the game is for a pitcher is to not give up runs and in that aspect beckett has done much better than lester thus far.

While I will agree tRA does help determine which pitcher will get better moving forward, although I trust it from season to season rather than month to month.

For instance I didn't need tRA to let me know Lester was going to get and continue to get better this season, because like you said his K rates are great and he proved last season that he can really pitch.

papipapsmanny
06-29-2009, 12:07 AM
Players are obviously not making good contact off of him given his great K rates. He suffered a ridiculously high BABIP the first two months of the season. I remember it was around the .400 mark because I used that as one of the reasons not to worry about him earlier this year. That has come down which has resulted in him having much better end results this month. He was also giving up a ridiculously high amount of home runs per fly balls during the first few months of the season. I remember that it was around 1 home run for every 4 fly balls at one point this season. That decreased, like expected as the season went on. He only has given up two home runs in June vs 11 in April and May.

And of course things can be predicted based off of certain numbers in and outside of baseball. These types of things are why the Red Sox have become such a power house since the new ownership has been put into place.

there is a difference between making good contact and no contact. Especially earlier this season when people were making contact they were creaming him.

Gigantes4Life
06-29-2009, 01:05 AM
Yet people are hitting Beckett harder than they are hitting Lester.

C1Bman88
06-29-2009, 01:35 AM
yes i do whether "luckier" or not beckett has outproduced lester.

You're giving me a headache. Please, for the love of God, use some analysis instead of using the ERA argument. This isn't the main MLB forum. This is the Sabermetrics forum.

Zep
06-29-2009, 08:56 AM
there is a difference between making good contact and no contact. Especially earlier this season when people were making contact they were creaming him.

Just out of honest curiosity, did you read his entire post, or just the first sentence?

quiksilver2491
06-29-2009, 04:48 PM
tRA doesnt really show how a pitcher has produced. It just shows really what was supposed to happen or expected to happen.

How many times does someone have to explain this concept for you to comprehend this? BB data is based off events of actual baseball games in real life....it isn't some made up statistic that just pulls numbers out of mid air.

Seamhead
06-29-2009, 06:16 PM
papipapsmanny thinks tRA is based off of Baseball Mogul.

C1Bman88
06-29-2009, 08:05 PM
How many times does someone have to explain this concept for you to comprehend this? BB data is based off events of actual baseball games in real life....it isn't some made up statistic that just pulls numbers out of mid air.

For all the times we've tried to explain DIPS to him, he can't seem to wrap his head around it. It's one thing to dislike DIPS, but it's another thing entirely to dismiss it simply because one can't understand it.

papipapsmanny
06-29-2009, 09:01 PM
How many times does someone have to explain this concept for you to comprehend this? BB data is based off events of actual baseball games in real life....it isn't some made up statistic that just pulls numbers out of mid air.

I didnt say it was....

i used to think that but not anymore

papipapsmanny
06-29-2009, 09:20 PM
For all the times we've tried to explain DIPS to him, he can't seem to wrap his head around it. It's one thing to dislike DIPS, but it's another thing entirely to dismiss it simply because one can't understand it.

how am i dismissing it?

Im saying I don't think it is too great of a stat to use within specific seasons. As in Ill tak a lucky beckett for the season if is ERA is going to be 3 and Lester's is going to be 5. Lucky or not I rather have the 3.00 ERA. I think it is great when you are trading for pitchers, and see where the pitcher's production level should be out, and you can see if the pitcher should regress or improve. And I also think it is great for signing pitchers for the reason I just posted.

And Yes I completely understand it, its not hard to understand.

Gigantes4Life
06-29-2009, 11:56 PM
how am i dismissing it?

Im saying I don't think it is too great of a stat to use within specific seasons. As in Ill tak a lucky beckett for the season if is ERA is going to be 3 and Lester's is going to be 5. Lucky or not I rather have the 3.00 ERA. I think it is great when you are trading for pitchers, and see where the pitcher's production level should be out, and you can see if the pitcher should regress or improve. And I also think it is great for signing pitchers for the reason I just posted.

And Yes I completely understand it, its not hard to understand.

OK, but the point is that Lester has pitched better, not that he's had better results.

Rylinkus
06-30-2009, 08:19 AM
OK, but the point is that Lester has pitched better, not that he's had better results.

Which would meaning going forward he's more likely to have equal or better success than Beckett.

Gigantes4Life
06-30-2009, 04:14 PM
Assuming they both pitch the same, yes. Using the regressed form of tRA is probably better for that.

papipapsmanny
06-30-2009, 06:52 PM
Alright it seems that Ks have a lot of influence on tRA. When looking at beckett his k/9 innings is right in line with his career average. While Lester's is way higher than it has ever been. Would it be unreasonable to assume that Lester's k rates will come back down to earth some, meaning that his tRA will also decrease?

Gigantes4Life
06-30-2009, 07:40 PM
It would be reasonable to assume his tRA would go down if his K's decreased. But it's not reasonable to assume that Lester's K rate will go down. He's young and it's not out of reason for him to improve.

papipapsmanny
06-30-2009, 08:56 PM
yeah he should improve but that drastically? obviously i like the guy but from 6.5 ks/9 to 10.3 Ks/9 is a big swing upward.

Gigantes4Life
06-30-2009, 10:30 PM
Well it's too early to assume anything.

WavelandAve
07-03-2009, 05:40 PM
I read an article or articles on Umpires a while ago. It had ratings and talked about their efficiency to call strikes that were strikes and balls that were balls etc... I cant find it now. Does anyone have any idea of what im talking about.

Havoc Wreaker
07-05-2009, 02:21 AM
Simple question: Why the hell I had not heard about this forum being created?????

I have homework to do and a lot of stuff to learn. God I love Baseball.

Joba_the_Beast
07-06-2009, 08:44 PM
Alright it seems that Ks have a lot of influence on tRA. When looking at beckett his k/9 innings is right in line with his career average. While Lester's is way higher than it has ever been. Would it be unreasonable to assume that Lester's k rates will come back down to earth some, meaning that his tRA will also decrease?

No, because unlike stats like ERA, K's have nothing to do with luck. K's are a direct result of the kid of stuff/control you have, meaning Lester probably made some kind of adjustment allowing him to strike out more hitters.

iam brett favre
07-07-2009, 12:57 AM
Based on sabermetrics, who is better:
Mark Teixiera or Kevin Youkilis
ARod or David Wright

poodski
07-07-2009, 11:51 AM
I would take A-Rod and Tex over Youk and Wright.

Its pretty close though.

BALLER71
07-07-2009, 03:40 PM
I'm an epic n00b, so sorry if this is a stupid question.

How do you know if a pitcher is "lucky"?

ccugrad1
07-07-2009, 03:50 PM
I think baseball people have way too much time on their hands with all these statistics that are meaningless. At the end of the day, wins and losses are the only stats that mean much of anything!

Driven
07-07-2009, 03:54 PM
I think baseball people have way too much time on their hands with all these statistics that are meaningless. At the end of the day, wins and losses are the only stats that mean much of anything!
Yes, wins and losses are what matter, but the best way to find the highest probability of these wins are through these stats.

Seamhead
07-07-2009, 04:03 PM
I think baseball people have way too much time on their hands with all these statistics that are meaningless. At the end of the day, wins and losses are the only stats that mean much of anything!

I think you have too much time on your hands if you managed to come up with such a stupid post.

-Lavigne43-
07-07-2009, 04:21 PM
I'm an epic n00b, so sorry if this is a stupid question.

How do you know if a pitcher is "lucky"?

If their BABIP is significantly lower than their norm then they are lucky because balls are being hit towards fielders at an unusual rate. Over the long run their BABIP will rise to its normal rate which will lead to the pitcher performing to his true abilities. A good example of a pitcher who was "lucky" was Justin Duchscherer last year.

ccugrad1
07-07-2009, 04:33 PM
I think you have too much time on your hands if you managed to come up with such a stupid post.

How is it stupid? Do you think it is stupid because I am 100% truthful? Ask the Phillies if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they were winning the World Series last year?

Ask the Washington Nationals if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they finished with the worst record in baseball?

Do they figure in Sabermetrics in determining who wins the World Series?

No. It is done by who wins 4 games first in a 7 game World Series.

Joba_the_Beast
07-07-2009, 04:40 PM
How is it stupid? Do you think it is stupid because I am 100% truthful? Ask the Phillies if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they were winning the World Series last year?

Ask the Washington Nationals if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they finished with the worst record in baseball?

Do they figure in Sabermetrics in determining who wins the World Series?

No. It is done by who wins 4 games first in a 7 game World Series.

You seem to be missing the point, of course in the end all that matters are the wins, but Sabermetrics are used to help determine the best way to win the most games in the future.

Seamhead
07-07-2009, 04:41 PM
I want to bang my head against a wall.

But if you really believe that, then fine. Just know that type of "logic" also means that ANY type of player evaluation method, such as good ol' scouting, is useless. It doesn't matter, right? All that mattes is winning f'ing 4 out of 7! Hell, let's throw out a team of chimps out there, maybe they can 4 out of 7!

Did the Phillies give a **** about their director of scouting when they won the WS? Hell no. **** him.

Honestly, I want to be banned for having to read that.

Driven
07-07-2009, 04:54 PM
How is it stupid? Do you think it is stupid because I am 100% truthful? Ask the Phillies if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they were winning the World Series last year?

Ask the Washington Nationals if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they finished with the worst record in baseball?

Do they figure in Sabermetrics in determining who wins the World Series?

No. It is done by who wins 4 games first in a 7 game World Series.
When evaluating a player, you look at stats.

poodski
07-07-2009, 04:55 PM
I think baseball people have way too much time on their hands with all these statistics that are meaningless. At the end of the day, wins and losses are the only stats that mean much of anything!

Sure at the end of the day the only thing that matters is winning and losing.

And in order to win those games you want to score the most amount of runs, and give up the least.

And a good way to do that is to put out the best lineup and the best team to fit those needs.

And the best way to do that is using Sabermetrics.

So yes the only thing that matters is wins and losses, and the best way to achieve that is using sabermetrics and stats.

The Phillies had the third best wOBA in the NL last year, the best UZR in the NL. Yeah they dont care about the stats, they just care that those stats showed that they deserved to be where they were.

Jilly Bohnson
07-08-2009, 02:33 PM
How is it stupid? Do you think it is stupid because I am 100% truthful? Ask the Phillies if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they were winning the World Series last year?

Ask the Washington Nationals if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they finished with the worst record in baseball?

Do they figure in Sabermetrics in determining who wins the World Series?

No. It is done by who wins 4 games first in a 7 game World Series.

To go along with Poodski's post, do you know how they figure out what players to put on the team to win the world series? They don't use Tarot cards, and they don't draw names from a hat, they use a scouting, financial analysis, and statistical analysis, and Sabermetrics is the name used to refer to the statistical analysis of baseball.

Gigantes4Life
07-08-2009, 04:40 PM
I like that. Teams use tarot cards to field a lineup.

C1Bman88
07-08-2009, 04:45 PM
How is it stupid? Do you think it is stupid because I am 100% truthful? Ask the Phillies if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they were winning the World Series last year?

Ask the Washington Nationals if they cared about all these Sabermetrics stats when they finished with the worst record in baseball?

Do they figure in Sabermetrics in determining who wins the World Series?

No. It is done by who wins 4 games first in a 7 game World Series.

Something tells me you don't know much about Baseball.

hoggin88
07-08-2009, 09:14 PM
Question:

You know how the general offensive stat listed around here for offense is OPS? How come the main stat to evaluate a pitcher isn't "OPS against" or something like that. It seems like looking at their opposing OPS would be a lot better than ERA or WHIP or K:BB.Thoughts?

k_rock923
07-08-2009, 09:36 PM
I'm no expert, but my guess would be that it's because a pitcher doesn't have all that much control over whether a given hit is a single, double or triple.

Someone please tell me if I'm wrong about that since I'm only sort of guessing here.

hoggin88
07-08-2009, 10:07 PM
I'm no expert, but my guess would be that it's because a pitcher doesn't have all that much control over whether a given hit is a single, double or triple.

Someone please tell me if I'm wrong about that since I'm only sort of guessing here.

But using that logic then wouldn't that mean that OPS isn't a good stat for batter's either? If it's good enough to evaluate batter it seems like it should be good enough to evaluate a pitcher. The same thing goes for if you bring up BABIP wouldn't it? If a pitcher doesn't have much control over it then it must mean a batter doesn't have much control over it either.

carson005
07-08-2009, 10:15 PM
What does FIP stand for and what does it show?

k_rock923
07-08-2009, 10:50 PM
But using that logic then wouldn't that mean that OPS isn't a good stat for batter's either? If it's good enough to evaluate batter it seems like it should be good enough to evaluate a pitcher. The same thing goes for if you bring up BABIP wouldn't it? If a pitcher doesn't have much control over it then it must mean a batter doesn't have much control over it either.

I started writing out a response that was nothing more than a guess, but, you know what? I don't know. You'll have to wait for someone more familiar with sabermetrics than I am to answer this.

Seamhead
07-09-2009, 01:46 AM
Question:

You know how the general offensive stat listed around here for offense is OPS? How come the main stat to evaluate a pitcher isn't "OPS against" or something like that. It seems like looking at their opposing OPS would be a lot better than ERA or WHIP or K:BB.Thoughts?

Would you use K:BB for hitters as a valuable hitting metric? I'm not exactly following your logic.


But using that logic then wouldn't that mean that OPS isn't a good stat for batter's either? If it's good enough to evaluate batter it seems like it should be good enough to evaluate a pitcher.

Again, would we use tRA for hitters?



The same thing goes for if you bring up BABIP wouldn't it? If a pitcher doesn't have much control over it then it must mean a batter doesn't have much control over it either.

Incorrect. You're assuming way too much. Hitters have shown that they can control their BABIP, in the same way they can control HRs, singles, 2B, 3Bs, and even RBOEs. It's all a function of their skill, or particular skills (3B = speed, HR = power, etc.). We can't say the same about pitchers, which is why we don't use OPS.

Gigantes4Life
07-09-2009, 02:10 AM
What does FIP stand for and what does it show?

Fielding Independent Pitching. It measures what a pitcher should allow based on K, BB and HR. Since it's so limited, obviously it's not perfect, but it's better than ERA.

hoggin88
07-09-2009, 10:33 AM
Would you use K:BB for hitters as a valuable hitting metric? I'm not exactly following your logic.

Well some people have used K:BB for evaluating hitters, but I don't know how useful it is.




Again, would we use tRA for hitters?

Fair enough.



Incorrect. You're assuming way too much. Hitters have shown that they can control their BABIP, in the same way they can control HRs, singles, 2B, 3Bs, and even RBOEs. It's all a function of their skill, or particular skills (3B = speed, HR = power, etc.). We can't say the same about pitchers, which is why we don't use OPS.

So you're saying hitters can control their BABIP at least to an extent. I guess I don't understand why we say this is true, but when talking about pitchers all of the sudden we act like hits are just luck and the pitcher has no control over them.

The pitcher pitches the ball and the batter has control over whether that ball is going to be a 2B 3B etc., but the pitcher doesn't have control over it? Some pitchers give up fewer hits right? Some pitchers give up fewer or more home runs or even just more line drives than others. Wouldn't this be saying that's all luck?

I'm just trying to understand this better. Should we not use H/9 either?

Gigantes4Life
07-09-2009, 02:56 PM
Well some people have used K:BB for evaluating hitters, but I don't know how useful it is.





Fair enough.




So you're saying hitters can control their BABIP at least to an extent. I guess I don't understand why we say this is true, but when talking about pitchers all of the sudden we act like hits are just luck and the pitcher has no control over them.

The pitcher pitches the ball and the batter has control over whether that ball is going to be a 2B 3B etc., but the pitcher doesn't have control over it? Some pitchers give up fewer hits right? Some pitchers give up fewer or more home runs or even just more line drives than others. Wouldn't this be saying that's all luck?

I'm just trying to understand this better. Should we not use H/9 either?

No. A pitcher doesn't have control over his defense, ballpark and other factors.

Hitters have the distinction of having a certain type of swing. Pull hitter, slap hitter, etc. They have speed on their side as well (Ichiro). For pitchers, they face all of these guys and they all face the same guys, so over time it evens out.

hoggin88
07-09-2009, 04:27 PM
No. A pitcher doesn't have control over his defense, ballpark and other factors.

Hitters have the distinction of having a certain type of swing. Pull hitter, slap hitter, etc. They have speed on their side as well (Ichiro). For pitchers, they face all of these guys and they all face the same guys, so over time it evens out.

So a pitcher pitches a ball. His job is to not let a batter hit it, or at least not hit it well. So he wants a certain placement, speed, and possibly break to the pitch. If he does that well, then he won't give up as many hits right? And the hits he does give up will be for fewer total bases than an inferior pitcher in general right? And if he has very good command he won't walk as many either.

It seems like using your argument it means that pitchers pretty much just throw based on luck. I know that's not the case, so I'm trying to understand it better. Although so far I'm not following 100%. I know they don't have control over their defense or ballpark but neither do batters. Sometimes batters get lucky or unlucky yet we generally list OPS as a main stat. Pitchers also get lucky or unlucky sometimes with defense and such, so I don't see where the big difference is.

Gigantes4Life
07-09-2009, 05:58 PM
So a pitcher pitches a ball. His job is to not let a batter hit it, or at least not hit it well. So he wants a certain placement, speed, and possibly break to the pitch. If he does that well, then he won't give up as many hits right? And the hits he does give up will be for fewer total bases than an inferior pitcher in general right? And if he has very good command he won't walk as many either.

It seems like using your argument it means that pitchers pretty much just throw based on luck. I know that's not the case, so I'm trying to understand it better. Although so far I'm not following 100%. I know they don't have control over their defense or ballpark but neither do batters. Sometimes batters get lucky or unlucky yet we generally list OPS as a main stat. Pitchers also get lucky or unlucky sometimes with defense and such, so I don't see where the big difference is.

That's not what I'm saying. You almost had it right. "His job is to not let a batter hit it, or at least not hit it well." Yes. All he can control is from when he lets the ball go till the batter swings. The batter will either K, BB, get HBP or hit a GB, FB, LD or HR. His job is to avoid walks, line drives, walk as few as possible and have more groundballs than flyballs.

As for OPS against. Sure it can be used, but it's very ballpark dependent, and a pitcher doesn't have much control of whether balls are a single, double or triple. Why should he be punished because his defense has no range, no arm, or the batter is quick. Or maybe he has large gaps at his ballpark. I think that's the best way to explain it.

jetsfan89
07-09-2009, 06:02 PM
What's ISO and bRAA?

Seamhead
07-09-2009, 06:31 PM
Well some people have used K:BB for evaluating hitters, but I don't know how useful it is.

It doesn't tell you anything as a performance metric. It's used as a measure of plate discipline.




So you're saying hitters can control their BABIP at least to an extent. I guess I don't understand why we say this is true, but when talking about pitchers all of the sudden we act like hits are just luck and the pitcher has no control over them.

Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. Hitters have shown that they can control their BABIPs; it's a function of different skills, whether it be speed (Ichiro), how hard they hit the ball (which could be due to their bat speed), etc. Check out Manny Ramirez, Pujols, Ichiro, and even Pierre (speed) to see what I'm talking about. Then look at Juan Uribe or Bengie Molina. It's a small sample size, but it works to illustrate my point.


The pitcher pitches the ball and the batter has control over whether that ball is going to be a 2B 3B etc., but the pitcher doesn't have control over it?

Yes. Hitters have shown year to year correlation in the total of these events. Pitchers don't, with the exception of HRs.



Some pitchers give up fewer hits right?

And this is usually due to the amount of Balls in play they give up. If two pitchers have identical BABIPs, but pitcher A gave up 300 BIP, and pitcher B gave up 250 BIP, then pitcher B will give up less hits. Pitcher B will usually have more strikeouts, too.




Some pitchers give up fewer or more home runs or even just more line drives than others. Wouldn't this be saying that's all luck?

Why are you merging these events together? If something is out of a pitcher's immediate control, then that does not mean every event has to be out of their control.


I'm just trying to understand this better. Should we not use H/9 either?

Nope. Or WHIP.

hoggin88
07-09-2009, 08:01 PM
It doesn't tell you anything as a performance metric. It's used as a measure of plate discipline.


Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. Hitters have shown that they can control their BABIPs; it's a function of different skills, whether it be speed (Ichiro), how hard they hit the ball (which could be due to their bat speed), etc. Check out Manny Ramirez, Pujols, Ichiro, and even Pierre (speed) to see what I'm talking about. Then look at Juan Uribe or Bengie Molina. It's a small sample size, but it works to illustrate my point.


Yes. Hitters have shown year to year correlation in the total of these events. Pitchers don't, with the exception of HRs.


And this is usually due to the amount of Balls in play they give up. If two pitchers have identical BABIPs, but pitcher A gave up 300 BIP, and pitcher B gave up 250 BIP, then pitcher B will give up less hits. Pitcher B will usually have more strikeouts, too.


Why are you merging these events together? If something is out of a pitcher's immediate control, then that does not mean every event has to be out of their control.


Nope. Or WHIP.

I was just wondering if you consider the type of hit, e.g. a ground ball line drive or fly ball, a pitcher gives up to be luck or skill on their part. Because a pitcher who gives up more line drives is most likely going to give up more runs. But is the type of hit in that sense related to either the batter or pitcher's ability? Or am I even making sense?

I think I'm starting to understand most of what you're saying though. Thanks for hanging with me.

Gigantes4Life
07-09-2009, 08:08 PM
What's ISO and bRAA?

ISO stands for Isolated Power. It's basically SLG-BA, a measure of power. The more accurate version adjusts 3B as the same TB as 2B when measuring ISO as triples don't necessarily imply more power than a 2B, just more speed.

bRAA is batting Runs Above Average. You can really use it for any offensive production stat (OPS, EqA, wOBA), but it's main interpretation is with wOBA. You multiply RV/PA by PA. The entire equation is PA*(wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15.

These should be in the glossary thread by the way.

jetsfan89
07-09-2009, 08:21 PM
ISO stands for Isolated Power. It's basically SLG-BA, a measure of power. The more accurate version adjusts 3B as the same TB as 2B when measuring ISO as triples don't necessarily imply more power than a 2B, just more speed.

bRAA is batting Runs Above Average. You can really use it for any offensive production stat (OPS, EqA, wOBA), but it's main interpretation is with wOBA. You multiply RV/PA by PA. The entire equation is PA*(wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15.

These should be in the glossary thread by the way.

couldnt find them.

whats the range of ISO and bRAA for good, very good, elite players?

hoggin88
07-09-2009, 08:21 PM
ISO stands for Isolated Power. It's basically SLG-BA, a measure of power. The more accurate version adjusts 3B as the same TB as 2B when measuring ISO as triples don't necessarily imply more power than a 2B, just more speed.

This is ISOp isn't it..for "isolated power"?

And then ISOd is OBP-AVG, for "isolated discipline"?

I don't remember which letters you capitalize in it, but the point is there.

Gigantes4Life
07-09-2009, 11:28 PM
ISO and ISOp are the same thing, the p is just added on to avoid confusion.

A .200 ISO is usually very good.

Bonds bRAA in 04: 96.5
Pujols bRAA in 08: 71.2
Luis Castillo bRAA in 08: -5

Just to give you some perspective of guys you know.

jetsfan89
07-09-2009, 11:44 PM
ISO and ISOp are the same thing, the p is just added on to avoid confusion.

A .200 ISO is usually very good.

Bonds bRAA in 04: 96.5
Pujols bRAA in 08: 71.2
Luis Castillo bRAA in 08: -5

Just to give you some perspective of guys you know.

hey hey stop hating on my man luis castillo :p

Gigantes4Life
07-10-2009, 12:29 AM
Just wanted to give you an idea of average ;)

hoggin88
07-10-2009, 10:05 AM
That's not what I'm saying. You almost had it right. "His job is to not let a batter hit it, or at least not hit it well." Yes. All he can control is from when he lets the ball go till the batter swings. The batter will either K, BB, get HBP or hit a GB, FB, LD or HR. His job is to avoid walks, line drives, walk as few as possible and have more groundballs than flyballs.

As for OPS against. Sure it can be used, but it's very ballpark dependent, and a pitcher doesn't have much control of whether balls are a single, double or triple. Why should he be punished because his defense has no range, no arm, or the batter is quick. Or maybe he has large gaps at his ballpark. I think that's the best way to explain it.

OPS for hitters is also ballpark and defense dependent though. Hitters may get robbed of base hits or get lucky on some because of the park or defense. So it seems like that same logic applies to both sides.

poodski
07-10-2009, 10:17 AM
OPS for hitters is also ballpark and defense dependent though. Hitters may get robbed of base hits or get lucky on some because of the park or defense. So it seems like that same logic applies to both sides.

It does and should. Which is a big problem I have with WAR. For pitchers its theoretical for hitters its production.

Now granted for hitters it should even itself out a little bit over a year better than a pitcher but not all the time.

THT has a stat I like called PrOPS. I would like to see more stats like it, and readily available.

Its odd that we take ERA as nearly worthless, but then take stats like wOBA and OPS as if they are golden. Its rather odd.

Zep
07-10-2009, 11:47 AM
nevermind lol.

Seamhead
07-10-2009, 03:06 PM
OPS for hitters is also ballpark and defense dependent though. Hitters may get robbed of base hits or get lucky on some because of the park or defense. So it seems like that same logic applies to both sides.

The difference is the impact. For hitters, it's marginal.

Gigantes4Life
07-10-2009, 05:06 PM
OPS for hitters is also ballpark and defense dependent though. Hitters may get robbed of base hits or get lucky on some because of the park or defense. So it seems like that same logic applies to both sides.

OPS is in more control by the hitter though. If two players hit a line drive in the gap, they won't necessarily have the same result.


It does and should. Which is a big problem I have with WAR. For pitchers its theoretical for hitters its production.

Now granted for hitters it should even itself out a little bit over a year better than a pitcher but not all the time.

THT has a stat I like called PrOPS. I would like to see more stats like it, and readily available.

Its odd that we take ERA as nearly worthless, but then take stats like wOBA and OPS as if they are golden. Its rather odd.

It is, but the way ERA fluctuates so much it makes sense. And I like PrOPS too :hi5:

Dark Donnie
07-13-2009, 10:55 AM
I know nothing about Sabermetrics....quick question though. Someone stated that Jayson Werth was a "bad" fielder.

For instance, last year he was a 16.9 Rng , 21.5 UZR and a 35.3 UZR/150...isn't that considered good? The season before that he was pretty high as well.

What's considered good numbers when judging a fielder?

TheRuckus
07-13-2009, 11:58 AM
I know nothing about Sabermetrics....quick question though. Someone stated that Jayson Werth was a "bad" fielder.

For instance, last year he was a 16.9 Rng , 21.5 UZR and a 35.3 UZR/150...isn't that considered good? The season before that he was pretty high as well.

What's considered good numbers when judging a fielder?

Werth is a fantastic fielder. Ignore the butthurt Dodgers fans.

A 0 UZR is average, which makes his 21.5 UZR from last season phenomenal. Only Alex Rios had a better mark among qualified outfielders. By contrast, Brad Hawpe's -37.2 UZR last season means he is ****ing atrocious in the field.

Jilly Bohnson
07-13-2009, 01:19 PM
Werth is a fantastic fielder. Ignore the butthurt Dodgers fans.

A 0 UZR is average, which makes his 21.5 UZR from last season phenomenal. Only Alex Rios had a better mark among qualified outfielders. By contrast, Brad Hawpe's -37.2 UZR last season means he is ****ing atrocious in the field.

Well to be fair, the only reason Werth's UZR is that high is because his "Edge Coefficient," the amount a player looks like WWE Superstar Edge, is the highest in the league. It's just under 1.

:D

Gigantes4Life
07-13-2009, 02:53 PM
I know nothing about Sabermetrics....quick question though. Someone stated that Jayson Werth was a "bad" fielder.

For instance, last year he was a 16.9 Rng , 21.5 UZR and a 35.3 UZR/150...isn't that considered good? The season before that he was pretty high as well.

What's considered good numbers when judging a fielder?

No he's a good fielder.

Dark Donnie
07-13-2009, 03:05 PM
Are those three the best for judging how good of a fielder a particular player is?

Seamhead
07-13-2009, 04:26 PM
Are those three the best for judging how good of a fielder a particular player is?

Rng is a component of UZR. And UZR/150 is just UZR per 150 fielding games. So it's really not 3 different statistics.

Dark Donnie
07-13-2009, 04:31 PM
Rng is a component of UZR. And UZR/150 is just UZR per 150 fielding games. So it's really not 3 different statistics.

Gotcha...Thanks

Havoc Wreaker
07-13-2009, 04:34 PM
This Thread = Win.

Fool
07-14-2009, 02:57 AM
is there a stat that puts unearned runs into ERA?

Gigantes4Life
07-14-2009, 04:34 AM
I don't get it. Add unearned runs to the total yourself? Not sure what that accomplishes.

WoodandNails
07-15-2009, 02:39 AM
Why is a walk weighted less than a HBP in wOBA?

Gigantes4Life
07-15-2009, 05:12 AM
This is likely because there are some walks that do not result in runs. For instance, 8th place hitters in the NL get pitched around at times and the pitcher subsequently will more than likely not get the runner in.

Most HBP are usually by accident, and can come at bad times.

Zep
07-15-2009, 10:19 AM
How is "***" determined? I ask because I was looking through Brett Gardner's stats on fangraphs, and noticed that his *** over the course of his career (including minors) are: 8.2, 8.5, 8.2, 8.9, 8.1, 8.9, and 8.6. His ZiPS (RoS) is 8.2 and his ZiPS (Update) is 8.7.

My question is...how does this result in a career *** of 9.1?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9927&position=OF#advanced

poodski
07-15-2009, 10:24 AM
is there a stat that puts unearned runs into ERA?

RA9 is all runs allowed per nine innings.

I know firstinning has it, but its fairly easy to calculate yourself.

R/IP*9

poodski
07-15-2009, 10:35 AM
How is "***" determined? I ask because I was looking through Brett Gardner's stats on fangraphs, and noticed that his *** over the course of his career (including minors) are: 8.2, 8.5, 8.2, 8.9, 8.1, 8.9, and 8.6. His ZiPS (RoS) is 8.2 and his ZiPS (Update) is 8.7.

My question is...how does this result in a career *** of 9.1?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9927&position=OF#advanced

This is the definition:


Speed Score (***) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a hitter's comparables. It is based in principle on the Bill James speed score and includes five components: Stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.
Beginning in 2006, BP has developed a proprietary version of Speed Score that takes better advantage of play-by-play data and ensures that equal weight is given to the five components. In the BP formulation of Speed Score, an average rating is exactly 5.0. The highest and lowest possible scores are 10.0 and 0.0, respectively, but in practice most players fall within the boundary between 7.0 (very fast) and 3.0 (very slow).

Well thats the PECOTA version.

And I dont see *** on the PECOTA cards on BP.

poodski
07-15-2009, 10:47 AM
To continue with speed score here a few nice articles

One by MGL http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/speed-and-defense/

This shows a calculation but not sure if its the one used by fangraphs. http://strikeoutbaseball.com/speedscore.htm

Hope that helps a little more.

Zep
07-15-2009, 10:51 AM
To continue with speed score here a few nice articles

One by MGL http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/speed-and-defense/

This shows a calculation but not sure if its the one used by fangraphs. http://strikeoutbaseball.com/speedscore.htm

Hope that helps a little more.

Thanks, it does, I'll definitely check those out. I guess what I was wondering was how do several years of *** numbers being 8.x end up giving him a career *** number of 9.1?

It just left me scratching my head to be honest.

Jilly Bohnson
07-20-2009, 06:51 PM
Not a question but I wanted to give a big ol' :pity: to Dave Cameron for having Matt Wieters at #5 on his top 50 MLB trade value list thingy.

Seamhead
07-20-2009, 06:59 PM
Could you expand? I didn't read any of the rankings.

Jilly Bohnson
07-20-2009, 07:34 PM
Could you expand? I didn't read any of the rankings.

Do you know Bill Simmons, from ESPN.com? Well every summer he does a top 50 guys in the NBA in terms of trade value. Takes into account everything, production, upside, salary, etc. Well Dave Cameron on Fangraphs decided to do one too, except obviously with MLB. Here it is:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-mlb-trade-value-recap

And I'm not a huge fan of the list, but Matt Wieters at number 5 is the one that just makes me facepalm like crazy.

bosox3431
07-20-2009, 11:32 PM
I have a couple questions, sorry if they have been posted, but 10 pages is alot to go through. I usually use fangraphs or stat corner to find stats, but I still dont understand them real well yet.

for instance, I know higher a players woba the better. But what is considered average? Same with tRA. Also on stat corner if you look at a teams page, so hitters will be red and some green, im assuming that red for bad and green for good. but what about players whos stats are in bold, I thought that was maybe team leader but sometimes multiple players stats are bold.
For woba is thereposition averages? Like for SS's you would expect a lower woba then your more offensive positions. Like say wouldnt a .365 woba be more valuble from a SS then a 1B. I hope someone understans what im trying to say.

is 0.0 average for UZR and UZR/150?
Is there any good defensive stats for cathchers?

Im trying to learn more about WAR. What would be below avg, avg, and above average?

Sorry if thats alot of questions or if I was confusing

bosox3431
07-20-2009, 11:35 PM
Do you know Bill Simmons, from ESPN.com? Well every summer he does a top 50 guys in the NBA in terms of trade value. Takes into account everything, production, upside, salary, etc. Well Dave Cameron on Fangraphs decided to do one too, except obviously with MLB. Here it is:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-mlb-trade-value-recap

And I'm not a huge fan of the list, but Matt Wieters at number 5 is the one that just makes me facepalm like crazy.

That list does look bad. Other then Weiters, how is Troy Tul ahead of Mauer. Why is Strasburg and Buchholz on the list. I mean Buchholz has pitched very good in the minors, but that just the minors, and Strasburg hasnt even signed yet I believe. I dont know alot about Saber stats yet, so maybe im worng

bosox3431
07-20-2009, 11:48 PM
Also what is average for tRA+?

Seamhead
07-20-2009, 11:53 PM
I have a couple questions, sorry if they have been posted, but 10 pages is alot to go through. I usually use fangraphs or stat corner to find stats, but I still dont understand them real well yet.

for instance, I know higher a players woba the better. But what is considered average?Same with tRA.

wOBA: around .340. It'll be damn close to league average OBP.

tRA:

http://statcorner.com/pitcherSP.php?id=429722&team=ANA&year=2009&leag=A_L

Right next to tRA, there is a column called "lgtRA". That is the average tRA for each particular season. As you can see, it hovers around 4.85 to 4.90.


Also on stat corner if you look at a teams page, so hitters will be red and some green, im assuming that red for bad and green for good. but what about players whos stats are in bold, I thought that was maybe team leader but sometimes multiple players stats are bold.

I have no idea. Not really that important.


For woba is thereposition averages? Like for SS's you would expect a lower woba then your more offensive positions. Like say wouldnt a .365 woba be more valuble from a SS then a 1B. I hope someone understans what im trying to say.

I understand, but I don't really know.



is 0.0 average for UZR and UZR/150?

Yes. Relative to each position.


Is there any good defensive stats for cathchers?

Not really. THT has some which are a bit useful.


Im trying to learn more about WAR. What would be below avg, avg, and above average?

2 is average. 4 is good. 5 is great. Anything around and above 7 is all-star, Albert Pujols like.

Sorry if thats alot of questions or if I was confusing[/QUOTE]




Do you know Bill Simmons, from ESPN.com? Well every summer he does a top 50 guys in the NBA in terms of trade value. Takes into account everything, production, upside, salary, etc. Well Dave Cameron on Fangraphs decided to do one too, except obviously with MLB. Here it is:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-mlb-trade-value-recap

And I'm not a huge fan of the list, but Matt Wieters at number 5 is the one that just makes me facepalm like crazy.

No, I'm familiar with what he's doing, since I read the series when he did it last season. What I'm asking is why you disagree. To expand on that.

TheRuckus
07-21-2009, 12:01 AM
For woba is thereposition averages? Like for SS's you would expect a lower woba then your more offensive positions. Like say wouldnt a .365 woba be more valuble from a SS then a 1B. I hope someone understans what im trying to say.

I would think the positional adjustment for WAR answers this question. A .365 wOBA would certainly be more valuable from a SS than from a 1B- I think that's pretty intuitive- but that's why you have the positional adjustment.

Havoc Wreaker
07-21-2009, 12:31 AM
Ok...I got into an argument with a friend about Justin Morneau so I went to fangraphs and confirmed that there were

10 or so better 1B on defense according to UZR and that there are 10 better on offense according to wOBA (which I dont fully understand) and according to OPS too.

Then I went to the VALUE part and found that Morneau has a higher WAR than most of the 1B who were above him on UZR, wOBA and OPS

Can anyone explain

Seamhead
07-21-2009, 12:44 AM
That were above him in both UZR and wOBA, or just one of the two? If it's just one, then there is your answer. If both, then it could be that he has a lot more PAs than those 1B. Since wOBA isn't in its park-adjusted form at wOBA, but park-adjusted when converted to runs, it could be that.

Havoc Wreaker
07-21-2009, 12:59 AM
That were above him in both UZR and wOBA, or just one of the two? If it's just one, then there is your answer. If both, then it could be that he has a lot more PAs than those 1B. Since wOBA isn't in its park-adjusted form at wOBA, but park-adjusted when converted to runs, it could be that.

9 or 10 were ahead in both UZR and wOBA

And can you explain the bolded part any further?

Seamhead
07-21-2009, 01:05 AM
9 or 10 were ahead in both UZR and wOBA

And can you explain the bolded part any further?

Well, the 1B could have a higher wOBA than him, but if he has more PAs, he could end up with a higher amount of runs above average.

And wOBA at fangraphs isn't park-adjusted. Instead, it is park-adjusted when converted to runs above average. Just as above, in that process, he could end up with a higher amount of runs above average due to park factors.

Nah I mean?

Havoc Wreaker
07-21-2009, 01:13 AM
Well, the 1B could have a higher wOBA than him, but if he has more PAs, he could end up with a higher amount of runs above average.

And wOBA at fangraphs isn't park-adjusted. Instead, it is park-adjusted when converted to runs above average. Just as above, in that process, he could end up with a higher amount of runs above average due to park factors.

Nah I mean?

yes....but why does wRAA (if thats runs above average) depends on PAs? I mean why would a player have a higer wRAA just because he has more PAs

Gigantes4Life
07-21-2009, 01:25 AM
yes....but why does wRAA (if thats runs above average) depends on PAs? I mean why would a player have a higer wRAA just because he has more PAs

Because it's a counting stat. It measures how many runs above the average player that player would have in the same amount of PA as the average player.

wRAA=PA*RV/PA

RV/PA is the constant I think you're looking for. It's also, "above average". How many more runs the batter produces in his PA than the average player.

I've never said average so much.

Seamhead
07-21-2009, 01:29 AM
yes....but why does wRAA (if thats runs above average) depends on PAs? I mean why would a player have a higer wRAA just because he has more PAs


Because it's a counting stat. It measures how many runs above the average player that player would have in the same amount of PA as the average player.

wRAA=PA*RV/PA

RV/PA is the constant I think you're looking for. It's also, "above average". How many more runs the batter produces in his PA than the average player.

I've never said average so much.

That.

Havoc Wreaker
07-21-2009, 01:34 AM
I have some work to do with this stuff haha and I might as well tell him he won the argument...cause there is no way in HELL he will understand or let me explain all of this hahahaha

Gigantes4Life
07-21-2009, 01:37 AM
I have a couple questions, sorry if they have been posted, but 10 pages is alot to go through. I usually use fangraphs or stat corner to find stats, but I still dont understand them real well yet.

for instance, I know higher a players woba the better. But what is considered average? Same with tRA.



Average wOBA is basically the OBP for that league.

Also on stat corner if you look at a teams page, so hitters will be red and some green, im assuming that red for bad and green for good. but what about players whos stats are in bold, I thought that was maybe team leader but sometimes multiple players stats are bold.

I believe it breaks it up into percentiles. The elite hitters will be bold, as well as the god awful ones.

More specifically, green is above average, red is below.


For woba is thereposition averages? Like for SS's you would expect a lower woba then your more offensive positions. Like say wouldnt a .365 woba be more valuble from a SS then a 1B. I hope someone understans what im trying to say.

Just use the difference in wins. Since a SS is worth 1.5 more wins than the 1B, assuming they're both the same defensively relative to their position, then they're only equal if the 1B is better offensively by 1.5 wins (15.75 runs). So you could probably calculate this in reverse. But it's not really worth it.


is 0.0 average for UZR and UZR/150?
Is there any good defensive stats for cathchers?

Im trying to learn more about WAR. What would be below avg, avg, and above average?

Sorry if thats alot of questions or if I was confusing

Seamhead answered all this. But to add, above 10 WAR is Bonds-like :)

Gigantes4Life
07-21-2009, 01:38 AM
I have some work to do with this stuff haha and I might as well tell him he won the argument...cause there is no way in HELL he will understand or let me explain all of this hahahaha

Just tell him your understanding is way above his and that if you tried to explain it to him, his mind would explode. And make it longer, so it takes like 20 seconds to explain. Works all the time.

Havoc Wreaker
07-21-2009, 01:51 AM
Just tell him your understanding is way above his and that if you tried to explain it to him, his mind would explode. And make it longer, so it takes like 20 seconds to explain. Works all the time.
I have a lot of reading up to do myself....I can honestly say that I did not understand much of your explanation on wRAA and I still don't see how PA's alone make the value rise.
But I'll check it out tommorow when my mind is fresh

Thank you and Good Night

Gigantes4Life
07-21-2009, 03:27 AM
I have a lot of reading up to do myself....I can honestly say that I did not understand much of your explanation on wRAA and I still don't see how PA's alone make the value rise.
But I'll check it out tommorow when my mind is fresh

Thank you and Good Night

Well I'll explain it this way:

You understand the concept of Runs Created right? PA*OPS basically, and it's a way of measuring run production.

Well wRC (weighted Runs Created) is basically wRAA without the above average part. It calculates the expected runs created based on wOBA.

wRAA is runs created, relative to the average player.

Jilly Bohnson
07-21-2009, 02:40 PM
wOBA: around .340. It'll be damn close to league average OBP.

tRA:

http://statcorner.com/pitcherSP.php?id=429722&team=ANA&year=2009&leag=A_L

Right next to tRA, there is a column called "lgtRA". That is the average tRA for each particular season. As you can see, it hovers around 4.85 to 4.90.



I have no idea. Not really that important.



I understand, but I don't really know.



Yes. Relative to each position.



Not really. THT has some which are a bit useful.

?

2 is average. 4 is good. 5 is great. Anything around and above 7 is all-star, Albert Pujols like.

Sorry if thats alot of questions or if I was confusing





No, I'm familiar with what he's doing, since I read the series when he did it last season. What I'm asking is why you disagree. To expand on that.[/QUOTE]

Matt Wieters is crazy overrated if you ask me. I think people confused a high amount of polish with some outrageous Mike Piazza's bat with Pudge Rodriguez's glove type of upside. Also, I don't see how anything he did last year should have changed his scouting reports so drastically from when he was drafted. He should be a good player, very good even, but something in the .280/.380/.480 range rather than some of the more hardcore expectations thrown his way. He should definitely be on the list, but at #5 that's just a joke IMO. When your'e THAT high on the list, you need to have shown something in the majors. He shouldn't be top 15, much less top 5.

Seamhead
07-21-2009, 02:48 PM
I agree. I think it's crazier that Strasburg is where he is at on the list, though.

poodski
07-21-2009, 03:27 PM
I have a lot of reading up to do myself....I can honestly say that I did not understand much of your explanation on wRAA and I still don't see how PA's alone make the value rise.
But I'll check it out tommorow when my mind is fresh

Thank you and Good Night

You have to think of wRAA as a counting stat (that can diminish).

Player A has a wOBA of .365 and has 100 PA.

Player B has a wOBA of .363 and has 500 PA.

If the average wOBA is .335, wouldnt you say that player B has created more runs above average than player A?

Per PA yes player A has been better, but player B has more PA, and therefore has created more runs. Make sense? I know G4L said something, but I thought I would try to help explain as well.

bosox3431
07-21-2009, 04:40 PM
Is either UZR or UZR/150 a better stat then the other. Or are they both about equal?

Gigantes4Life
07-21-2009, 04:44 PM
UZR/150 is UZR extrapolated for a full season.

C1Bman88
07-21-2009, 08:05 PM
Is either UZR or UZR/150 a better stat then the other. Or are they both about equal?

Just stick with UZR. UZR/150 is an estimate of a player's performance over a season; UZR by itself is a measurement of the player's actual performance.

Havoc Wreaker
07-22-2009, 12:03 AM
You have to think of wRAA as a counting stat (that can diminish).

Player A has a wOBA of .365 and has 100 PA.

Player B has a wOBA of .363 and has 500 PA.

If the average wOBA is .335, wouldnt you say that player B has created more runs above average than player A?

Per PA yes player A has been better, but player B has more PA, and therefore has created more runs. Make sense? I know G4L said something, but I thought I would try to help explain as well.


Ah this explanation I understand clearly :up: thanks to both of you G4L and yourself


This one might be a simpler question and even border on stupid :hide: : where does the Positional value come from to calculate RAR?

Gigantes4Life
07-22-2009, 12:08 AM
The positional adjustments are:
+1.0 wins C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF/PH
-1.0 1B
-1.5 DH

Havoc Wreaker
07-22-2009, 12:18 AM
The positional adjustments are:
+1.0 wins C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF/PH
-1.0 1B
-1.5 DH

Fangraphs says:

Positional Adjustment set at
+12.5 for C,
+7.5 for SS,
+2.5 for 2B/3B/CF,
-7.5 for RF/LF,
-12.5 for 1B,
-17.5 for DH

And after that...how do you get to the values the players have...for example Pujols has a -7.3 Positional Value

Seamhead
07-22-2009, 01:40 AM
It's prorated.

Gigantes4Life
07-22-2009, 01:53 AM
Fangraphs says:

Positional Adjustment set at
+12.5 for C,
+7.5 for SS,
+2.5 for 2B/3B/CF,
-7.5 for RF/LF,
-12.5 for 1B,
-17.5 for DH

And after that...how do you get to the values the players have...for example Pujols has a -7.3 Positional Value

Yeah those are in runs. I think FanGraphs expresses it in expected playing time, while The Book has it expressed in the situation that they play all the time.

And for the 2nd question, what he said:


It's prorated.

Jilly Bohnson
07-22-2009, 11:11 AM
Fangraphs says:

Positional Adjustment set at
+12.5 for C,
+7.5 for SS,
+2.5 for 2B/3B/CF,
-7.5 for RF/LF,
-12.5 for 1B,
-17.5 for DH

And after that...how do you get to the values the players have...for example Pujols has a -7.3 Positional Value

They really ought to change that. 3b should not be lumped in with 2b and CF.

Gigantes4Life
07-22-2009, 06:52 PM
2B and 3B are the same, I have no idea why CF is with them.

Jilly Bohnson
07-23-2009, 12:44 PM
2B and 3B are the same, I have no idea why CF is with them.

2b and CF are fairly similar offensively, 3b is a lot closer to LF/RF though. The past three years(2006-2008), the average major league 2b has hit:

2006 - .275/.333/.409
2007 - .277/.339/.417
2008 - .275/.338/.409

For CF:

2006 - .269/.334/.426
2007 - .272/.337/.420
2008 - .268/.333/.419

For 3b:

2006 - .276/.346/.458
2007 - .273/.341/.442
2008 - .265/.335/.435

3b has been kind of a cut above those other two in the recent past, although this year 3b has been right in line with 2b and CF offensively. Still though, I think 3b should probably be set in between 2b/CF and LF/RF.

Seamhead
07-23-2009, 02:59 PM
2b and CF are fairly similar offensively, 3b is a lot closer to LF/RF though. The past three years(2006-2008), the average major league 2b has hit:

2006 - .275/.333/.409
2007 - .277/.339/.417
2008 - .275/.338/.409

For CF:

2006 - .269/.334/.426
2007 - .272/.337/.420
2008 - .268/.333/.419

For 3b:

2006 - .276/.346/.458
2007 - .273/.341/.442
2008 - .265/.335/.435

3b has been kind of a cut above those other two in the recent past, although this year 3b has been right in line with 2b and CF offensively. Still though, I think 3b should probably be set in between 2b/CF and LF/RF.

Except that positional adjustments aren't based on hitting averages. They are based on UZR defensive studies.

As for positional adjustments, if you don't agree with them, then you should come up with some statistical and strong anecdotal evidence that rivals them.

Jilly Bohnson
07-23-2009, 04:46 PM
Except that positional adjustments aren't based on hitting averages. They are based on UZR defensive studies.

As for positional adjustments, if you don't agree with them, then you should come up with some statistical and strong anecdotal evidence that rivals them.

How is a positional adjustment not based on hitting averages? Isn't the whole point of having a positional adjustment because offense is harder to find at some spots more than others?

Seamhead
07-23-2009, 05:26 PM
How is a positional adjustment not based on hitting averages? Isn't the whole point of having a positional adjustment because offense is harder to find at some spots more than others?

Not really. Though it also serves as a method of balancing out positional scarcity, it's really to adjust for the differences in difficulty of playing each position.

See, X is X because of Y. If it weren't for the fact that SS is much harder to play than 1B, then there wouldn't be a lot more human beings that are able to play 1B as opposed to SS.

TheRuckus
07-23-2009, 07:03 PM
1B is full of great hitters partly because defense isn't nearly as important there, so you can afford a big bat and a crap glove. Not the case at short. Plus, as pointed out above, there are a lot fewer players capable of manning SS...hence the reason you have so many who are average or worse at the plate.

Jilly Bohnson
07-23-2009, 08:14 PM
Not really. Though it also serves as a method of balancing out positional scarcity, it's really to adjust for the differences in difficulty of playing each position.

See, X is X because of Y. If it weren't for the fact that SS is much harder to play than 1B, then there wouldn't be a lot more human beings that are able to play 1B as opposed to SS.

Fair enough? But 3b is lower on the defensive spectrum than 2b or CF, so why is it lumped in with them. Is the difference really considered that small?

Seamhead
07-23-2009, 08:56 PM
Fair enough? But 3b is lower on the defensive spectrum than 2b or CF, so why is it lumped in with them. Is the difference really considered that small?

Well, the defensive spectrum, when originally created, while very good and a great step to valuing players, is very arbitrary and subjective. We shouldn't really base everything off of it.

Gigantes4Life
07-23-2009, 09:40 PM
How is a positional adjustment not based on hitting averages? Isn't the whole point of having a positional adjustment because offense is harder to find at some spots more than others?

It doesn't really matter where the offense is coming from, but it does matter where your good defenders come from. That's kind of how I think of it.

Havoc Wreaker
07-24-2009, 05:33 PM
Allright - I know I've seen a list of averages of the Tra+ a pitcher should have

Example:

If the pitcher is an ace he should have between X and Y Tra+


I believe it was from statcorner but I can't find it anywhere so I need help

TheRuckus
07-24-2009, 05:43 PM
Allright - I know I've seen a list of averages of the Tra+ a pitcher should have

Example:

If the pitcher is an ace he should have between X and Y Tra+

I believe it was from statcorner but I can't find it anywhere so I need help

It was, but the blog seems to have vanished.

Havoc Wreaker
07-24-2009, 05:49 PM
It was, but the blog seems to have vanished.
Damn, does anyone kind of remembers or has Guesstimates?

Gigantes4Life
07-24-2009, 06:00 PM
#1 SP = tRA+ of 118 or higher, the average #1 has a 130 tRA+.
#2 SP = tRA+ from 106 to 117, the average #2 has a 112 tRA+.
#3 SP = tRA+ from 95 to 105, the average #3 has a 100 tRA+.
#4 SP = tRA+ from 86 to 94, the average #4 has a 91 tRA+.
#5 SP = tRA+ of 85 or lower, the average #5 has a 76 tRA+.

Havoc Wreaker
07-24-2009, 06:14 PM
#1 SP = tRA+ of 118 or higher, the average #1 has a 130 tRA+.
#2 SP = tRA+ from 106 to 117, the average #2 has a 112 tRA+.
#3 SP = tRA+ from 95 to 105, the average #3 has a 100 tRA+.
#4 SP = tRA+ from 86 to 94, the average #4 has a 91 tRA+.
#5 SP = tRA+ of 85 or lower, the average #5 has a 76 tRA+.
:love:

VenezuelanMet
07-24-2009, 09:43 PM
Does anyone know where can i find the swinging strike percentage for pitchers?

TheRuckus
07-24-2009, 10:09 PM
Does anyone know where can i find the swinging strike percentage for pitchers?

Statcorner has it. Just search for whichever pitcher you want and click on the "Pitch Results" tab. It's "SwStr%". They also have called strike percentage, in play percentage, foul ball percentage...pretty much everything you'd want to know can be found at Statcorner, Fangraphs, The Hardball Times or BP.

Lesson
07-25-2009, 01:09 AM
This maybe too simple but I always forget:

How many innings must a rookie pitcher clock in to be considered in the ROY voting? And the same with batters but how many AB's must they have?

Yagyu+
07-27-2009, 07:46 PM
This maybe too simple but I always forget:

How many innings must a rookie pitcher clock in to be considered in the ROY voting? And the same with batters but how many AB's must they have?

A rookie is formally defined as a player with less than one-hundred thirty at-bats, a pitcher with less than fifty innings pitched, or anyone with less than forty-five days on any Major League roster.

papipapsmanny
07-28-2009, 01:36 AM
I don't fully get BABIP.

Like John Smoltz, he has one of .394 how do you determine that he is unlikely as opposed to being crap.

Like Lester has a .342 BABIP is he getting unlucky? or lucky that his ERA is low with that high of a BABIP????????

Gigantes4Life
07-28-2009, 01:55 AM
Most pitchers usually don't have high expected BABIPs unless they're absolutely getting hammered.

It's not the most accurate, but generally LD%+.12 is a rough estimate of what BABIP should be.

Lester has a 19% LD, so his BABIP is too high.
Smoltz is at 19.6%, so they're both just unlucky. He's also lucky that his ERA is low with that BABIP, although he's been pitching good (if that makes sense).

papipapsmanny
07-28-2009, 01:22 PM
but why is it .290 to determine wheter a player is lucky or not.

Like Ted Williams had a career BABIP of .329 so am I supposed to assum he was lucky his whole career or do I use that number to look at seasons where he was lucky and unlucky.

same with pedroia who has a career BABIP of .323

TheRuckus
07-28-2009, 01:38 PM
but why is it .290 to determine wheter a player is lucky or not.

Like Ted Williams had a career BABIP of .329 so am I supposed to assum he was lucky his whole career or do I use that number to look at seasons where he was lucky and unlucky.

same with pedroia who has a career BABIP of .323

You can't just look at the BABIP by itself and say, "Oh, that hitter is lucky/unlucky." Unlike pitchers, hitter have some control over their BABIP (although you really can't just look at BABIP for pitchers, either). .290 is simply the league average.

We don't have batted ball data for Teddy Ballgame, but we do for Pedroia. His LD rate is above average, therefore his BABIP being higher than average is probably not a fluke.

Basically, as usual, you have to look at the whole picture and not just one small part of it.

I'd have a more in-depth explanation for you, but xBABIP still isn't freely available without having to calculate it myself, and I'm lazy. The old LD+.12 is still relatively useful as a quick and dirty estimate, but xBABIP is much more accurate. It includes speed, general location of hit, plate discipline, contact rate, park, handedness, and more.

Gigantes4Life
07-28-2009, 03:05 PM
but why is it .290 to determine wheter a player is lucky or not.

Like Ted Williams had a career BABIP of .329 so am I supposed to assum he was lucky his whole career or do I use that number to look at seasons where he was lucky and unlucky.

same with pedroia who has a career BABIP of .323

Common rule of thumb. For pitchers use xBABIP or LD+.12

For hitters, compare it to their career averages.

NYYCowboys
07-28-2009, 07:42 PM
Can someone please explain how to calculate UZR. I know how it works, and what is a good UZR and what is bad, but I don't get the rationale behind it and haven't been able to find a good site to explain it.

papipapsmanny
07-29-2009, 05:58 PM
Everyone one says this FIP is equivalent to this ERA my question is simple, how do you figure that out????

C1Bman88
07-29-2009, 06:23 PM
What do you mean?

papipapsmanny
07-29-2009, 07:13 PM
I keep seeing posters post a pitchers FIP and saying that the equivalent to this ERA....

I don't get that either I was trying to figure out if anyone here could clarify that

Gigantes4Life
07-31-2009, 04:45 AM
Can someone please explain how to calculate UZR. I know how it works, and what is a good UZR and what is bad, but I don't get the rationale behind it and haven't been able to find a good site to explain it.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-21_0/

It's a ***** to read. Long.


I keep seeing posters post a pitchers FIP and saying that the equivalent to this ERA....

I don't get that either I was trying to figure out if anyone here could clarify that

It's on the scale of ERA (runs/9 IP). I assume that's what they meant.

carson005
08-10-2009, 08:20 PM
Quick question

On statcorner when you are looking at a players stats and it has their 09 WAR, is that how many they have been worth SO FAR, or is it how much they are worth over a full season

thanks

TheRuckus
08-10-2009, 08:41 PM
Quick question

On statcorner when you are looking at a players stats and it has their 09 WAR, is that how many they have been worth SO FAR, or is it how much they are worth over a full season

thanks

Just so far, I believe. But they're using hWAR, which is hitting only.

carson005
08-10-2009, 08:55 PM
Gracias

hoggin88
08-10-2009, 10:01 PM
Question about UZR:

Isn't UZR a cumulative stat and UZR/150 is a rate stat? If so, then why don't people use UZR/150 more often?

I might sound like an idiot here because I don't really know much about UZR, but isn't that just like listing how many times a guy has reached base instead of listing his OBP? Or am I completely off base here?

EDIT: never mind I guess that's a bad analogy considering UZR can be negative and OBP can't. So basically, can someone just explain what the differences are between UZR and UZR/150 and when to use which?

Gigantes4Life
08-10-2009, 11:35 PM
You use UZR because it measures actual defensive value, UZR/150 is to give you idea of what type of a defender a guy is in a full season.

Havoc Wreaker
08-13-2009, 11:27 PM
Sorry if this has been asked before or if it's too stupid but I was thinking about this last night

Does Uzr take into consideration if the ball in play is a LD FB or GB?

The GB part for Infielders

ETA
08-14-2009, 12:06 AM
Sorry if this has been asked before or if it's too stupid but I was thinking about this last night

Does Uzr take into consideration if the ball in play is a LD FB or GB?

The GB part for Infielders


Yes batted ball type is accounted for

cambovenzi
08-14-2009, 01:17 AM
now that i see tons of questions on UZR, i have one of my own.

does it take into account at all that another fielder might come into your zone and "steal" your outs?
for example couldnt an overzealous or speedy CF'er or SS could cross over infront of you in your zone, and make you look like a worse fielder than you are?

flips333
09-02-2009, 03:50 PM
wOBA's actual formula looks like this in case you're ever bored and want to calculate for yourself:



That is, (.72 x Non-Intentional Bases on balls + .75 x Hit-by-Pitch + .90 x Singles + .92 x Reached Base on Error + 1.24 x Doubles + 1.56 x Triples + 1.95 x Home Runs)/Total Plate appearances.

wOBA (from my understanding) is basically OBP, but each specific event that leads to a batter reaching base is given a specific value, or weight (a triple is worth more than a double, a double is worth more than a walk, etc.).

why doesn't wOBA take into account Intentional Base on balls... there's got to be a run probablity associate with it to.

C1Bman88
09-02-2009, 03:55 PM
why doesn't wOBA take into account Intentional Base on balls... there's got to be a run probablity associate with it to.

The run value of an intentional walk is usually worth about 0.18 runs. Not very high at all.

Toirtap
09-02-2009, 04:51 PM
.18 runs is more than half of a non-intentional walk and roughly the same as a stolen base, so it's not entirely inconsequential.

However, Tango's position is that the win value of the intentional walk is essentially neutral compared to the win value of the given batter's normal plate appearance. Therefore, from a win perspective, you can throw IW out and just give the batter credit for the plate appearance, at the same value as his typical plate appearance. There is a discussion of his argument here (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/rob_neyer_touts_woba/#16).

Gigantes4Life
09-02-2009, 10:08 PM
Some sites do include IBB though.

Dark Donnie
09-03-2009, 10:49 AM
What's the best way to look at Team Defense?

poodski
09-03-2009, 11:00 AM
What's the best way to look at Team Defense?

You can look at team UZR.

Another good way personally would be. FIP-ERA. If its positive your defense has saved X earned runs per 9 innings. If its negative your defense has cost you X earned runs per 9 innings. Theoretically.

Dark Donnie
09-03-2009, 11:35 AM
You can look at team UZR.

Another good way personally would be. FIP-ERA. If its positive your defense has saved X earned runs per 9 innings. If its negative your defense has cost you X earned runs per 9 innings. Theoretically.

:up: Thank You

C1Bman88
09-03-2009, 12:56 PM
What's the best way to look at Team Defense?

Team UZR was already mentioned, but DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio) is pretty damn effective as well.

poodski
09-03-2009, 01:19 PM
For those that dont know DER is basically the opposite of BABIP.

bosox3431
09-03-2009, 01:23 PM
I was wondering what kind of affect does the Green Monster has on UZR, if any at all?

Seamhead
09-03-2009, 04:42 PM
I was wondering what kind of affect does the Green Monster has on UZR, if any at all?

MGL adjusts for it, since UZR is park-adjusted, but MGL himself has stated the adjustment isn't very good.

long ball
09-22-2009, 09:05 PM
I know I could probably find this pretty easily, but what's considered a good woba? .340+?

hoggin88
09-22-2009, 10:26 PM
wOBA's actual formula looks like this in case you're ever bored and want to calculate for yourself:



That is, (.72 x Non-Intentional Bases on balls + .75 x Hit-by-Pitch + .90 x Singles + .92 x Reached Base on Error + 1.24 x Doubles + 1.56 x Triples + 1.95 x Home Runs)/Total Plate appearances.

wOBA (from my understanding) is basically OBP, but each specific event that leads to a batter reaching base is given a specific value, or weight (a triple is worth more than a double, a double is worth more than a walk, etc.).

I don't like the fact that reaching base by an error is factored into wOBA. Sure it correlates to run production, but it isn't a result of a person's skill. Why should someone get credit for reaching base on a ****** ground ball that goes through someone's legs? :confused:

Gigantes4Life
09-23-2009, 04:55 AM
I don't like the fact that reaching base by an error is factored into wOBA. Sure it correlates to run production, but it isn't a result of a person's skill. Why should someone get credit for reaching base on a ****** ground ball that goes through someone's legs? :confused:

That's not true. There's actually been correlation between RBOE and player type. I can't find it, but guys like Ichiro force many more errors than guys like Dunn.

TheRuckus
09-23-2009, 12:20 PM
I know I could probably find this pretty easily, but what's considered a good woba? .340+?

wOBA is designed to roughly be on the same scale as OBP. So .340 would be average, .360 would be pretty good, anything above .400 is awesome.

C1Bman88
09-23-2009, 12:53 PM
That's not true. There's actually been correlation between RBOE and player type. I can't find it, but guys like Ichiro force many more errors than guys like Dunn.

A nice, simple explanation can be found here (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/sports/baseball/11score.html). The original (and lengthy) article by Tom Ruane is here (http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/error_art.htm).

long ball
09-24-2009, 10:58 PM
wOBA is designed to roughly be on the same scale as OBP. So .340 would be average, .360 would be pretty good, anything above .400 is awesome.

Alright thanks.

Rylinkus
09-30-2009, 12:25 PM
Does WAR factor in # of games played? For example, would a player who misses a month due to injury have a lower WAR than if he'd played the entire season putting up the same averages? Or would 2 guys platooning at a position be hurting each other's WAR since they are splitting time?

C1Bman88
09-30-2009, 01:20 PM
Does WAR factor in # of games played? For example, would a player who misses a month due to injury have a lower WAR than if he'd played the entire season putting up the same averages? Or would 2 guys platooning at a position be hurting each other's WAR since they are splitting time?

WAR is based on playing time. The "replacement" adjustment is based on 20 runs per 600 plate appearances and the "positional" adjustment is based on how many defensive games are played per 150 games.

bosox3431
10-02-2009, 10:50 PM
Is WPA for pitchers any good? Like for comparing.

ReyBrutal
10-05-2009, 03:06 PM
Do you guys put any stock into ERA+ and OPS+?

How about UZR and UZR/150 and +/-?

ReyBrutal
10-05-2009, 03:14 PM
I would look at a multitude of stats to determine a players value. The best available offensive stat in my opinion is wOBA with UZR being the best available defensive metric. For pitching I like to look at FIP, BABIP and their K/BB.

VORP tries to determine a players value to a team but it does not take into account defense.

There is also WAR which weights wOBA and UZR in a formula to calculate how many wins a position player adds to a team. There is also a formula to calculate WAR for pitchers. I am not too familiar with this stat though

I agree with you to a certain degree but I think +/- is a bit better of a defensive stat than UZR and I would never use FIP it's too defense reliant to use it to compare pitchers.

VORP has it's flaws.

I'm losing confidence in WAR as well.

poodski
10-05-2009, 03:19 PM
Is WPA for pitchers any good? Like for comparing.

Personally I love WPA. WPA might be my favorite stat out there, but it can be very defense reliant for a pitcher.


I agree with you to a certain degree but I think +/- is a bit better of a defensive stat than UZR and I would never use FIP it's too defense reliant to use it to compare pitchers.

VORP has it's flaws.

I'm losing confidence in WAR as well.

How is FIP defense reliant?

What dont you like about WAR?

C1Bman88
10-05-2009, 03:22 PM
I agree with you to a certain degree but I think +/- is a bit better of a defensive stat than UZR and I would never use FIP it's too defense reliant to use it to compare pitchers.

VORP has it's flaws.

I'm losing confidence in WAR as well.

-FIP is too defense-reliant? I'm not quite sure I follow.

-Plus/Minus makes less adjustments to it and the way it calculates run values is decent at best. Both metrics have their flaws but UZR is the lesser of two evils. I prefer to weight it .6 UZR, .2 PMR and .2 Plus/Minus.

-VORP definitely has its flaws and shouldn't be looked at. RARP is better but still has its issues.

-Any reason why you're losing confidence in WAR?

C1Bman88
10-05-2009, 03:25 PM
Do you guys put any stock into ERA+ and OPS+?

How about UZR and UZR/150 and +/-?

ERA+, no. Calculation of it could be improved on and there's no real need to pay attention to ERA, at least on a single-season basis. Over the course of a pitcher's career, sure. OPS+ is (and I'm sure I might get some flack for this) basically useless. You can't add OBP and SLG together because they're not on the same scale. It undervalues OBP by quite a bit.

Plus/Minus is pretty good. UZR is better, but neither should be taken seriously on a single-season basis (too much noise in the data). UZR/150 is being cited a lot but I don't really see why. There's really no point in prorating defensive numbers in my opinion.

ReyBrutal
10-05-2009, 03:45 PM
Personally I love WPA. WPA might be my favorite stat out there, but it can be very defense reliant for a pitcher.



How is FIP defense reliant?

What dont you like about WAR?

Excuse me, I confused FIP with something else, I looked at it, I was wrong on that one.

As for WAR, I was comparing a few players the other day on Fangraphs and player 2 had slightly lower stats overall and a higher WAR, I'll try to find it again and if I do I'll post it here.

ReyBrutal
10-05-2009, 04:00 PM
ERA+, no. Calculation of it could be improved on and there's no real need to pay attention to ERA, at least on a single-season basis. Over the course of a pitcher's career, sure. OPS+ is (and I'm sure I might get some flack for this) basically useless. You can't add OBP and SLG together because they're not on the same scale. It undervalues OBP by quite a bit.

Plus/Minus is pretty good. UZR is better, but neither should be taken seriously on a single-season basis (too much noise in the data). UZR/150 is being cited a lot but I don't really see why. There's really no point in prorating defensive numbers in my opinion.

I disagree with that first part, I'm a firm believer that a pitchers first job is to not allow any runs to score, regardless of how it's done. I know that the "+" stats need a 3 year basis of a stadium so YS and Citi Field are still working out little kinks... still I think that it is a fair measure since it adjusts to league averages.

I'll have to look up +/- again but there was a reason why I saw it as a better measure. I do see reason to measure defense numerically but I think it will be done better in the coming years. Did you hear about those cameras they installed in the top of every stadium which tracks like everyone on the defender, not sure if they went up yet but I read about it and it sounded interesting.

C1Bman88
10-05-2009, 08:28 PM
I disagree with that first part, I'm a firm believer that a pitchers first job is to not allow any runs to score, regardless of how it's done. I know that the "+" stats need a 3 year basis of a stadium so YS and Citi Field are still working out little kinks... still I think that it is a fair measure since it adjusts to league averages.

I'll have to look up +/- again but there was a reason why I saw it as a better measure. I do see reason to measure defense numerically but I think it will be done better in the coming years. Did you hear about those cameras they installed in the top of every stadium which tracks like everyone on the defender, not sure if they went up yet but I read about it and it sounded interesting.

Well, there are certain things a pitcher has no control over, and I don't think they should be held responsible for good or bad defense behind them. There's too much fluctuation year to year when it comes to defensive support, so I don't trust ERA on a single-season basis. ERA+ is pretty good for multiyear sampling though. OPS+ is just plain misleading. As much as I love B-Ref, I wish Sean would fix a few things.

And yes, I've heard of this new system- it'll fix a lot of the issues with Plus/Minus and UZR. I actually posted a thread on it a few months ago. :)

Hustla23
10-08-2009, 11:54 AM
Hey , I hope someone wouldn't mind answering.

I know tRA accounts for batted ball types in its algorithm but does it also account for "clutchiness" ?

As in, surrendering three consecutive line drives would probably lead to a run but three line drives in different innings probably wouldn't.

Whoever answers, thank you for your time.

Toirtap
10-08-2009, 02:28 PM
No, it doesn't. All of the metrics of the DIPS/FIP/tRA family assume a random distribution of events (essentially).

C1Bman88
10-08-2009, 02:41 PM
I know tRA accounts for batted ball types in its algorithm but does it also account for "clutchiness" ?

Sounds to me like you're looking for something along the lines of a "value added" approach (http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/valueadd_art.htm), but this doesn't account for batted ball type- the only thing that it measures is the total run expectancy based on the distribution of hits allowed (singles, doubles with a runner on first, etc.) so it's not defense-independent.

You might be interested in RE24 (run expectancy by the 24 base-out states) for pitchers (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2009&month=0). Again, it's not defense-independent, but it'll give you a pretty good idea of how pitchers performed based on the distribution of hits they allowed.

Hustla23
10-09-2009, 07:15 PM
Sounds to me like you're looking for something along the lines of a "value added" approach (http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/valueadd_art.htm), but this doesn't account for batted ball type- the only thing that it measures is the total run expectancy based on the distribution of hits allowed (singles, doubles with a runner on first, etc.) so it's not defense-independent.

You might be interested in RE24 (run expectancy by the 24 base-out states) for pitchers (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2009&month=0). Again, it's not defense-independent, but it'll give you a pretty good idea of how pitchers performed based on the distribution of hits they allowed.
Thank you.

I hope they do introduce something that encompasses batted ball types with its "values added."

Hustla23
10-09-2009, 07:15 PM
Is Speed considered when calculating WAR?

Or is that factored into RAR somehow?

I get the feeling it isn't which is a shame.