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rtgthree
06-20-2009, 08:57 PM
From Mark Bowman of MLB.com:

The Royals are watching Jeff Francoeur this weekend and there's still obviously a chance that Dayton Moore could be prompted to make a deal for the 25-year-old outfielder.

But to make this deal work, the Braves may need to be willing to assume the baggage and cost that Jose Guillen would bring. Guillen is making $12 million this season and he'll be owed and equal amount before his contract expires at the end of the 2010 season.
http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/06/red_sox_fans_provide_lowe_some.html

I can't imagine the Braves could afford to take on Guillen's $12 million salary this year (not to mention another year at $12MM in 2010). We would have to get some major cash, though if the money is a wash, I'd definitely swap Frenchy out for Guillen.

ccugrad1
06-20-2009, 08:58 PM
The Royals would be losing out big time on that deal. Jeff Francoeur is worth a Single-A or Double-A player right now at best, not Jose Guillen.

rtgthree
06-20-2009, 09:01 PM
^^^It would be entirely a salary dump for them. Guillen hasn't been all that productive, and just as the Braves are very ready to be rid of Frenchy, Dayton Moore is antsy to move Guillen and his contract (and his less-than-commendable clubhouse presence).

jmtapia
06-20-2009, 09:04 PM
From Mark Bowman of MLB.com:

http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/06/red_sox_fans_provide_lowe_some.html

I can't imagine the Braves could afford to take on Guillen's $12 million salary this year (not to mention another year at $12MM in 2010). We would have to get some major cash, though if the money is a wash, I'd definitely swap Frenchy out for Guillen.

overall including defense its a wash... Guillens awful defense makes a gain in offense insignficant...Frenchy has been playing solid defense...

jmtapia
06-20-2009, 09:05 PM
haha one day we could have easily made a Frenchy for Greinke swap....how the days change....

rtgthree
06-20-2009, 09:12 PM
haha one day we could have easily made a Frenchy for Greinke swap....how the days change....

Those rumors were fabricated by somebody in the Kansas City press. That deal could never and would never have happened.

jmtapia
06-20-2009, 09:27 PM
^^^of course but what im alluding to the "what if"...

AustinTheGreat
06-20-2009, 09:35 PM
throw in our poor excuse for a 2nd baseman maybe we can get some minor leaguer.

BRAVE KID
06-20-2009, 09:54 PM
throw in our poor excuse for a 2nd baseman maybe we can get some minor leaguer.much rather keep KJ.

ATL2010
06-20-2009, 10:41 PM
Fantastic this is ****ing fantastic im so excited i hope we finally get rid of the problem that is frenchy im so tired of him

rtgthree
06-20-2009, 10:43 PM
throw in our poor excuse for a 2nd baseman maybe we can get some minor leaguer.

Dude, if you're going to keep shredding KJ, you're gonna need to explain what exactly is wrong with him. What has changed from last season, when he wasn't a "poor excuse for a second baseman"?

rtgthree
06-20-2009, 10:56 PM
Bowman updates, in the comments:

The Braves aren't necessarily interested in Guillen. I'm just saying the Royals still have enough interest in Francoeur to send a scout here this weekend. And it's no secret that they would love to dump Guillen's salary. The most newsworthy element is the fact that the Royals are obviously still at least contemplating the possibility of trading for Frenchy.
http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/06/red_sox_fans_provide_lowe_some.html#comment-3619731

oh-mylanta
06-20-2009, 11:00 PM
i think inserting kj in the leadoff spot in the beginning of the season which he is known to hate has really messed up his head and never allowed him to get comfortable .

ATL2010
06-20-2009, 11:18 PM
i want to have either Omar or Martin play Second base everyday that is way to much talent to just have on the bench

rtgthree
06-20-2009, 11:22 PM
i think inserting kj in the leadoff spot in the beginning of the season which he is known to hate has really messed up his head and never allowed him to get comfortable .

Kelly has had more than 100 PAs at each of five different lineup spots: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 8th. His OPS is highest when he hits seventh, but next behind that is leading off. Statwise, he "prefers" leading off to hitting second, hitting third, or hitting eighth. And there's a luck flag in the 7-hole as well (namely a fluky .389 BABIP). So the idea that he "hates" hitting leadoff? Not sure where that comes from. That doesn't explain his decline.

oh-mylanta
06-20-2009, 11:43 PM
kj hating the leadoff spot comment comes from almost every braves broadcaster who have said numerous times that he doesnt really like hitting leadoff. so i was just saying maybe that was the start of his decline mentally speaking.

rtgthree
06-21-2009, 12:06 AM
^^^OK, so let's run with that for a moment. Let's assume that there is some sort of "mental decline" here that's responsible for his poor performance. Now what I can't figure out is where that's manifesting itself in his performance decline. I'm not talking about results...I'm talking about process. What is he doing differently, on the field? Is he swinging and missing more? Is he making weaker contact? What has changed between last year and this?

oh-mylanta
06-21-2009, 12:14 AM
i dont know ,what i was thinking which i dont know where to look is how many pitches hes seeing per at bat compared to past years maybe hes not seeing pitches as much as he used too which would maybe be why hes walking less? hes got my head spinning trying to figure out.

KingsFiend
06-21-2009, 12:31 AM
News Flash Guillen is 33! Frenchy is 25. Even though Guillen's numbers are alittle better, Frency is a better defender and a way better arm then Guillen. And 9 million cheaper.

rtgthree
06-21-2009, 12:38 AM
News Flash Guillen is 33! Frenchy is 25. Even though Guillen's numbers are alittle better, Frency is a better defender and a way better arm then Guillen. And 9 million cheaper.

Agreed. Guillen is one of the few major-leaguers that I wouldn't trade Francoeur for straight up.

rtgthree
06-21-2009, 12:43 AM
i dont know ,what i was thinking which i dont know where to look is how many pitches hes seeing per at bat compared to past years maybe hes not seeing pitches as much as he used too which would maybe be why hes walking less? hes got my head spinning trying to figure out.

True. He's seeing less pitches, 3.5 per plate appearance compared to 3.8 per plate appearance. But then what conclusions are drawn from that? Less walks? Well, yes, but his walks are only down 1% from last year and that's not the reason he's got no value.

His secondary skills haven't changed. His isoOBP is .067 this year where it was .062 last year (that's OBP minus AVG, for reference). And his ISO (SLG minus AVG) is .153 where it was .157 last year. I mean that is quite frankly uncanny consistency: literally the only thing he has lost are 60 points of batting average. So why did he lose those?

bravesfan22193
06-21-2009, 12:45 AM
I'd trade Frenchy for an A ball arm and financial relief at this point. Make a run for Josh Willingham then possibly. Also the KJ hate is so stupid, yes he's struggling mightily so far this year but he is a notorious streaky player. There will be a stretch where he is one of our top hitters and then you all that are complaining will be talking about the need to lock him up long term. With a player like Kelly, you have to take the lows to get to the highs

NBA_Starter
06-21-2009, 01:09 AM
The more I think about it the more I don't know if I really want to get rid of Franky or not!

oh-mylanta
06-21-2009, 01:11 AM
i was always a big kj fan i thought this was going to be his big break out year and be a more consistent hitter. im not hating on him im just miffed at why he hasnt taken off yet. for me even if he gets hot and gets his numbers back to normal id still see what hes worth on the trade market at the deadline or after the year because hes just too streaky for my liking . i dont mind slumps because everyone has them but , you just cant have a guy be terrible for 3 months and great for 3 months you need consistentcy for a good offense. adam laroche was the same.

oh-mylanta
06-21-2009, 01:24 AM
as for rf spot and a quick inhouse fix maybe we could trade frenchy for a prospect and send down blanco and call up b.jones and barton and platton rf , barton seems to have the speed we need and crushes lefty pitching. bjones i think could hold his own and wouldnt be any worse than frenchy. thoughts?

AustinTheGreat
06-21-2009, 01:26 AM
Dude, if you're going to keep shredding KJ, you're gonna need to explain what exactly is wrong with him. What has changed from last season, when he wasn't a "poor excuse for a second baseman"?

I have to explain what is exactly is wrong with him???...wow..i cant see how you can possibly continue to defend this guy. I dont have to explain at all, all we have to do is watch the games and see why he is awful. Nothing has changed from last year, i was saying this same thing last year but i wasnt part of this site/forum last year. Btw i think this is a good forum, ive tried a bunch of places and they are jokes...but anyways. He was pathetic last year but hit .398 in september to boast his average and make it look like he had a decent year. BUt he didnt, he was like this last year. Pathetic during much of the season but good 2 months to hide the fact that hes not much help to this team during the early months when we need to wins games to stay in the race. When it comes down the Sept, we've had to play perfect ball just to get in the picture and it never happens. We need a 2nd that can hit and produce for us EARLY, throughout and ALL during the season.

bravesfan22193
06-21-2009, 01:57 AM
i was always a big kj fan i thought this was going to be his big break out year and be a more consistent hitter. im not hating on him im just miffed at why he hasnt taken off yet. for me even if he gets hot and gets his numbers back to normal id still see what hes worth on the trade market at the deadline or after the year because hes just too streaky for my liking . i dont mind slumps because everyone has them but , you just cant have a guy be terrible for 3 months and great for 3 months you need consistentcy for a good offense. adam laroche was the same.

I agree to an extent, we should move him if he plays really well the rest of the year and his value is high like the ludwick rumors but I don't get the people that want to give up on him now due to a couple rough months. He's not Francouer where he's destined to suck every month

jmtapia
06-21-2009, 01:57 AM
KJ has been awful no matter how you see it...

bravesfan22193
06-21-2009, 02:04 AM
KJ has been awful no matter how you see it...

Unless you took the time to look at his stats beyond average and OBP and saw that his BABIP is .251 compared to a career average of .317

bravesfan22193
06-21-2009, 02:05 AM
His defense in the UZR/150 metric is actually positive this year, a big improvement over the last two so even though the hitting has been troubling it's good to see above average defense

NBA_Starter
06-21-2009, 02:37 AM
KJ had a few good swings tonight, maybe we will see him get some breaks tomorrow.

BravoFan3736
06-21-2009, 04:19 AM
NO way the the braves taken on GUillen's contract unless the royals payed this year and some of next years $$. Otherwise I would want a Frenchy + prospects for Dejesus. Both have struggled this year but this would give the braves a legit leadoff guy outside NM and we could move NM down the lineup to utilize his HR power with more guys on base in front of him with Chipper batting cleanup. I know chipper doesn't like hitting there but this would be just a quick fix for this year till we can address the OF in the off season.

MrJones
06-21-2009, 10:07 AM
I think KJ is just in panic mode. Seeing less pitches and then when he does get his pitch to hit he's so concerned with putting the ball in the air that he is uppercutting and then popping up. His GB/FB of .82 vs. career 1.21 would be a clear indicator of that to me.

AustinTheGreat
06-21-2009, 10:27 AM
ive funny how yall think BABIP is an excuse.

MrJones
06-21-2009, 11:05 AM
ive funny how yall think BABIP is an excuse.

What ?

rtgthree
06-21-2009, 11:24 AM
i dont mind slumps because everyone has them but , you just cant have a guy be terrible for 3 months and great for 3 months you need consistentcy for a good offense.

But if we look at his current slump, we have to identify why he is slumping.


The more I think about it the more I don't know if I really want to get rid of Franky or not!

Uh, why not?


as for rf spot and a quick inhouse fix maybe we could trade frenchy for a prospect and send down blanco and call up b.jones and barton and platton rf , barton seems to have the speed we need and crushes lefty pitching. bjones i think could hold his own and wouldnt be any worse than frenchy. thoughts?

Can't object to that at all, frankly. I mean we'd need a more permanent solution before too long. But if we traded Jeff today, that would make sense for a few weeks.


I have to explain what is exactly is wrong with him???...wow..i cant see how you can possibly continue to defend this guy.

Because NO ONE CAN TELL ME WHAT'S WRONG WITH HIM. I continue to defend him because he's been a model of consistency throughout his career, and it's quite surprising to see him suddenly fall off the face of the earth like he has this year. Furthermore, there has to be a reason why his performance has fallen off, and no one can tell me what that reason is, so I'm left to my own explanation--namely, bad luck (which is statistically supported by data).


I dont have to explain at all, all we have to do is watch the games and see why he is awful. Nothing has changed from last year, i was saying this same thing last year but i wasnt part of this site/forum last year.

OK, then if all you have to do is watch the games and see why he is awful, just tell me why he is awful. Last year he was an .800 OPS second baseman, and if that's "awful" to you, then you know nothing about evaluating baseball. So if nothing has changed, how is he suddenly awful?


He was pathetic last year but hit .398 in september to boast his average and make it look like he had a decent year.

And how is it that you can just throw out September?


We need a 2nd that can hit and produce for us EARLY, throughout and ALL during the season.

So then what exactly is wrong with him in the early months of the season? What is the flaw in his game during his cold streaks that isn't a flaw during his hot streaks? If I can pinpoint that and determine that his streakiness isn't just a function of his luck, THEN I can agree with you that a more consistent solution would be useful.


KJ has been awful no matter how you see it...

True. The question is the likelihood that he will continue to be awful going forward.

rtgthree
06-21-2009, 11:28 AM
I think KJ is just in panic mode. Seeing less pitches and then when he does get his pitch to hit he's so concerned with putting the ball in the air that he is uppercutting and then popping up. His GB/FB of .82 vs. career 1.21 would be a clear indicator of that to me.

I can agree with you that he's in panic mode, and, indeed, Joe Simpson pointed this out on the broadcast the other night, that he's lifting his front shoulder and upper-cutting on the ball. Good catch, Mr. Jones, and I certainly like that as an explanation because he's converted about 4.5% of his line drives and 2.5% of his ground balls from last year into fly balls this year. That's a critical decline. That makes it all the more frustrating because the problem with his swing was pretty easily identified by Mr. Simpson, and does indeed seem to just be a function of him panicking at the plate.

CrippledRam
06-21-2009, 01:06 PM
Call Dayton and tell him we'll take that Moustakas guy off his hands for Frenchy. Former top spec for top spec now. Fair right? :-)

rtgthree
06-21-2009, 03:47 PM
Joe Simpson wondered on today's broadcast if perhaps it isn't a coincidence that Jeff Francoeur is on the bench for today's game against the Red Sox. Gregor Blanco hadn't played on the entire road trip, and suddenly he gets in the lineup in place of Frenchy, so Simpson thinks there's a red flag there and a deal for Francoeur might be in the offing. Just him speculating though.

Slash
06-21-2009, 03:58 PM
Joe Simpson wondered on today's broadcast if perhaps it isn't a coincidence that Jeff Francoeur is on the bench for today's game against the Red Sox.

Hmmmm. http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9854363#post9854363

NBA_Starter
06-21-2009, 03:58 PM
Joe Simpson wondered on today's broadcast if perhaps it isn't a coincidence that Jeff Francoeur is on the bench for today's game against the Red Sox. Gregor Blanco hadn't played on the entire road trip, and suddenly he gets in the lineup in place of Frenchy, so Simpson thinks there's a red flag there and a deal for Francoeur might be in the offing. Just him speculating though.

I mentioned this in the @Red Sox Game thread. It is kind of odd. Before Joe mentioned I thought it was maybe for the same reasons Chipper struggled when he tried to bat right handed against Wakefield and just saving Jeff the trouble, but what Simpson said makes all of the sense in the World if you really think about it....

rtgthree
06-21-2009, 04:03 PM
Hmmmm. http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9854363#post9854363

I hope to God you're right.

brave/cuban
06-21-2009, 04:55 PM
what aboot do sonting whit bennet.?

BRAVE KID
06-21-2009, 06:31 PM
Joe Simpson wondered on today's broadcast if perhaps it isn't a coincidence that Jeff Francoeur is on the bench for today's game against the Red Sox. Gregor Blanco hadn't played on the entire road trip, and suddenly he gets in the lineup in place of Frenchy, so Simpson thinks there's a red flag there and a deal for Francoeur might be in the offing. Just him speculating though.please let it be something. Let the golden boy part.

Brave4life
06-21-2009, 07:13 PM
I kind of wondered why francouer did not run for anderson. You would think that they would bring in frenchy for defensive improvement and switch with blanco at right field. The only trade that i could imagine is him to KC. KC should cover 2-3 mill of guillens contract too. But now i see that Guillen played today.

Brave4life
06-21-2009, 07:17 PM
I am loving the Mclouth trade. He is stroking the ball. left field does not look too bad. We really need a right fielder. We have a tough schedule coming up with Yankees, Sox, and phils coming in. I hope this trade can go through today.

Brave4life
06-21-2009, 08:28 PM
I wonder if the braves can pull a trade off with shin soo choo. He is Japanese we fot a japanese guy in our clubhouse. He would be a great fit as a brave.

CrippledRam
06-21-2009, 08:53 PM
He's a lefty and is controlled for 5 yrs. He's the guy ClE would keep in a firesale, not trade

NBA_Starter
06-21-2009, 10:35 PM
^It would be nice to have him for sure!

CrippledRam
06-21-2009, 10:36 PM
So noone likes my Moustakas trade? lol

banditwolf
06-22-2009, 12:36 AM
We dont need Guillen i'd rather have Teahen or Dejesus but no guillen . There has to be some young right handed outfields out there like Cruz .

atl_braves_fan
06-22-2009, 12:39 AM
I wonder if the braves can pull a trade off with shin soo choo. He is Japanese we fot a japanese guy in our clubhouse. He would be a great fit as a brave.

He's Korean, not Japanese.

Also, I don't think that he worked out his mandatory enlistment in the South Korean military for next year yet. That might be a pretty good reason to be wary of any trade involving Choo.

littleknighty
06-22-2009, 07:22 AM
I just woke up and my first thought was to check to see if Frenchy was still a Brave. Dang he is.

ATL2010
06-22-2009, 09:03 AM
yep its a shame

AustinTheGreat
06-22-2009, 11:03 AM
What ?

its suspose to be "Its funny yall think BABIP is an excuse"

AustinTheGreat
06-22-2009, 11:38 AM
Because NO ONE CAN TELL ME WHAT'S WRONG WITH HIM. I continue to defend him because he's been a model of consistency throughout his career, and it's quite surprising to see him suddenly fall off the face of the earth like he has this year. Furthermore, there has to be a reason why his performance has fallen off, and no one can tell me what that reason is, so I'm left to my own explanation--namely, bad luck (which is statistically supported by data).



OK, then if all you have to do is watch the games and see why he is awful, just tell me why he is awful. Last year he was an .800 OPS second baseman, and if that's "awful" to you, then you know nothing about evaluating baseball. So if nothing has changed, how is he suddenly awful?



And how is it that you can just throw out September?



So then what exactly is wrong with him in the early months of the season? What is the flaw in his game during his cold streaks that isn't a flaw during his hot streaks? If I can pinpoint that and determine that his streakiness isn't just a function of his luck, THEN I can agree with you that a more consistent solution would be useful.



Are you serious?!??! this is getting ridiculous. Because of your LOVE to this guy you cant open your eyes and see the reality. You say he has been consistent thru this career?? what? it what sense has he been consistent?? please name the consistency he has shown. You think this is the first year hes fallen on his face??? Did you watch the braves last year? do i have to once again bring up his stats?? Ok i'll break it down again since you clearly dont get it. Last year, 2008, he was a exact replica of this years inconsistency. In the first month he hit .241 4 homers, In May he hit .355 2 homers, june- .250 with 2 homers, july-.224 1 homer, August .237 0 homers, and then he boasts his stats by a monster sept/oct month with .398 3 homers, 19 rbis....so hes been consistent all his career?? That isnt consistent on any level at all. And if you want to go back farther you can see in 2007 he had similar splits where he hit .259, .256, .269, and .200 in 4 months then had only 2 good months once again at .326, .356. How you can say hes a model of consistency , baffles me. His OPS was that high only because of mostly that last month when he went on a tear. Look at his OPS in the other months before that month. Dont break out the " you know nothing about baseball" You are the one that has to bring out OPS and BABip to defend a guy that is visibly not doing good. You bring out OPS and BABIP so much but AVG is valued more than both of those. You go to a braves game and do you see BABIP on the big screen?? Is there a hitting title for BABIP or OPS like there is for average?? this year hes already off to like his other inconsistent years...1st month .203 then .297 and then now .148, hes on schedule for another inconsistent year.

If you think thats fine for a player to basically suck 4 months out of the year and then have 2 good months that are outliers to the other months to boast his stats, then go ahead and like that player. That doesnt help the team when in the early months we need to win and we need a 2nd that can produce. In Sept, we have been pretty much out of it, not statistically but we'd have to play perfect baseball to of gotten in and that wasnt gonna happen. I don't care if you like him or not for some odd reason or BS stats like BABIP. And dont say he is consistent and has been for his career. The only consistent thing about him is that he consistently has inconsistent seasons.

nps6724
06-22-2009, 01:11 PM
He's been consistent year-to-year. No matter what he did in each month, at the end of 2007 and 2008 he had extremely similar lines. That's consistency. And last I checked, games in September don't count any less than games in April. You still play 162. And if you have to play perfect baseball in September to have a prayer, then most likely even if you move KJ's good months to the beginning, we'd still miss the playoffs.

BTW, how is BABIP a "BS" stat? Care to explain? Just because it isn't on the scoreboard doesn't mean it's not useful. Now you sound like Failcoeur with his "If OBP was so important, why isn't it on the scoreboard?" garbage.

CrippledRam
06-22-2009, 03:13 PM
Bradford Doolittle of the Kansas City Star says Royals GM Dayton Moore has referred to Jeff Francoeur as a successfully-developed player more than once.

mlbtr

lmao. awesome

Braves_Fan_RSD
06-22-2009, 04:56 PM
Ok I understand where Austin is coming from on the inconsistencies throughout the season with Kelly Johnson, and I also understand RTG's thoughts that he is getting unlucky, but I think its a lot more than him getting unlucky and more toward how he is hitting the ball. I dug a little deeper into the stats and I found something very interesting about Johnson's stats. Earlier RTG stated that he has a 22% LD ratio, well I took that to the next level.

April

Johnson posted a .203 batting average with a BABIP of .250 which we all agree is below his average of .317, but why is it so low? Is he just hitting the ball right at somebody? Well during the month of April he had a line dive percentage of 18%.

May

Batting Avg: .288
BABIP: .356
LD%: 26%

In may his BABIP jumped 100pts but the LD ratio jumped an astounding 8%.

June

Batting Avg: .180
BABIP: .148
LD: 14%

In June he has had a horrible month and his LD% dropped 12% and his BABIP dropped 200 pts.

If his line drive rates stayed consistent I could chalk up his problem to luck, but the problem seems to lie more with HOW hes hitting the ball not WHERE hes hitting the ball.

Braves_Fan_RSD
06-22-2009, 05:26 PM
I put the same numbers to Jeff Francoeur

April

Batting Avg: .280
BABIP: .300
LD%: 19%

May

Batting Avg: .194
BABIP: .250
LD% 20%

June

Batting Avg: .228
BABIP: .260
LD% 20%

To me these numbers suggest that Francouer has been the more unlucky player he consistently hits 20% of his balls as line drives in June and April he has struck out a total of 12 times but had a rough month in may with 18 strike outs. Francoeur has been very unlucky in May and June and had an average April. When he cuts back on the strikeouts which he has done a good job of this year except in May the stats show he has just been unlucky with his hits.

By the way Jeff's career BABIP is .297 and the only month he was on par with that he had a decent month.
for the year he has a BABIP of .269 so taking that into account his numbers should be .272/.308/.394 (slg % rough estimate based on the extra average not just being singles but following the same ratio of doubles, triples, hrs and singles.) OPS is .702 not great but not dismal either.

Im very happy with the stride Francoeur has made this year but everybody wants instant results, where I for one think he has progressed especially since he is on pace to set a career low in Ks by not just one or two or even 10 but by 30!!!!!!!

AustinTheGreat
06-22-2009, 05:30 PM
He's been consistent year-to-year. No matter what he did in each month, at the end of 2007 and 2008 he had extremely similar lines. That's consistency. And last I checked, games in September don't count any less than games in April. You still play 162. And if you have to play perfect baseball in September to have a prayer, then most likely even if you move KJ's good months to the beginning, we'd still miss the playoffs.

BTW, how is BABIP a "BS" stat? Care to explain? Just because it isn't on the scoreboard doesn't mean it's not useful. Now you sound like Failcoeur with his "If OBP was so important, why isn't it on the scoreboard?" garbage.

I call it a BS stat because THE only arguement for you is saying he is hitting the ball at people...ya hes hitting the ball at people because thats all he does is hit weak hits or flyouts to people. Ya September counts as Stats wise i never said it didnt. Yes it counts as much as any other month..once again i didnt say it didnt. The thing is baseball is 6 months long. I believe the braves would love to have a 2nd baseman that would show up for all 6 months.

AustinTheGreat
06-22-2009, 05:32 PM
Ok I understand where Austin is coming from on the inconsistencies throughout the season with Kelly Johnson, and I also understand RTG's thoughts that he is getting unlucky, but I think its a lot more than him getting unlucky and more toward how he is hitting the ball. I dug a little deeper into the stats and I found something very interesting about Johnson's stats. Earlier RTG stated that he has a 22% LD ratio, well I took that to the next level.

April

Johnson posted a .203 batting average with a BABIP of .250 which we all agree is below his average of .317, but why is it so low? Is he just hitting the ball right at somebody? Well during the month of April he had a line dive percentage of 18%.

May

Batting Avg: .288
BABIP: .356
LD%: 26%

In may his BABIP jumped 100pts but the LD ratio jumped an astounding 8%.

June

Batting Avg: .180
BABIP: .148
LD: 14%

In June he has had a horrible month and his LD% dropped 12% and his BABIP dropped 200 pts.

If his line drive rates stayed consistent I could chalk up his problem to luck, but the problem seems to lie more with HOW hes hitting the ball not WHERE hes hitting the ball.

Thank you for that much needed stat. Its not that he is hitting it hard right to people. Hes not hitting the ball hard at all.

Braves_Fan_RSD
06-22-2009, 05:48 PM
With all that being said about Johnson and Francouer If we can find a BETTER replacement for Francoeur (ie WILLINGHAM) then Im all for trading him and getting what we can. Right now we just do not have a BETTER replacement, In Johnsons case we have a BETTER replacement RIGHT NOW maybe not for long term but RIGHT NOW Prado has to be in the line up everyday, he is just the better player RIGHT NOW.

nps6724
06-22-2009, 07:49 PM
Even if you put his BABIP at his career average, his BA is still only .241 in May. He's going to set a career-low in Ks, but his power numbers are atrocious. I'd rather he K 150 times and produce 30 2B and 25 HR instead of what he's doing now. There's no room in the majors for a .250 singles hitter with no speed.

rtgthree
06-22-2009, 09:48 PM
To Austin:

If you look at Kelly's numbers from his career, his consistency is pretty outstanding. I've posted the numbers more times than I can count, but his minor-league career stats are almost exactly identical to the stats from his first two years in the majors. That's consistency.

There is no difference in value between a player who hits .250 every month or a guy who goes 0-fer for three months and then hits 1.000 for a month. The hits all count the same...one guy's giving the production a little at a time, one guy is basically killing you until he suddenly starts winning games by himself for a month by going 4-for-4 every day.

It's not that I have to make up some crazy stats to get my point across. BABIP's predictive effectiveness is proven, and it actually makes intuitive sense, if you watch the games anyway. And OPS is correlated with run scoring far better than most other stats. You don't go to a Braves game and see wOBA on the scoreboard, but that doesn't mean wOBA isn't the most accurate metric ever invented by mankind (which it is, statistically speaking).

Finally, it is highly inaccurate for you to say "all he does is hit weak hits or flyouts to people." He's hitting line drives at an above-average rate.

To RSD:

Looking at month-to-month line drive rates doesn't mean a whole lot. For one thing, a month is too small of a sample size for a stat like LD%...it's been shown that line drives don't normalize until about 200 PAs or so, and you'd have to play a lot to get 200 plate appearances in a month. So yeah, there's some variation month-to-month in his line drive rates, but a) that's perfectly normal; and b) I'm not denying that Kelly is streaky.

On the whole, though, where the sample is far more significant, Kelly's luck sucks. Your analysis of Francoeur has the same issues; the difference with Frenchy is that while he's having some hard luck too, he complies that problem by also having no plate discipline.

rtgthree
06-22-2009, 09:49 PM
Even if you put his BABIP at his career average, his BA is still only .241 in May. He's going to set a career-low in Ks, but his power numbers are atrocious. I'd rather he K 150 times and produce 30 2B and 25 HR instead of what he's doing now. There's no room in the majors for a .250 singles hitter with no speed.

His isolated power is no different this year than it was last year. Give him back those 60 points of batting average and his year would be 2008 all over again.

AustinTheGreat
06-23-2009, 01:22 AM
Even if you put his BABIP at his career average, his BA is still only .241 in May. He's going to set a career-low in Ks, but his power numbers are atrocious. I'd rather he K 150 times and produce 30 2B and 25 HR instead of what he's doing now. There's no room in the majors for a .250 singles hitter with no speed.

co sign. all he is hitting is singles. He hits the same grounders everytime, some go thru some dont.

rtgthree
06-23-2009, 11:28 AM
co sign. all he is hitting is singles. He hits the same grounders everytime, some go thru some dont.

Dude, you can't just keep writing falsehoods as if they are true. His isolated power is the same as it was last year, and in fact, a GREATER percentage of his hits are going for extra bases: last year 36% of his hits were XBH, this year he's at 44%. The ONLY THING that he has lost are a bunch of singles from last year, and as you say, that's just because sometimes the hits just don't fall. But also don't try to say he "hits the same grounders every time" because he's hitting more flyballs than grounders, and because he's also hitting line drives at an above-average rate.

AustinTheGreat
06-23-2009, 01:20 PM
ya and its not even half way thru the season. Lets see those stats at the end of the year.

Braves_Fan_RSD
06-23-2009, 11:28 PM
To RSD:

Looking at month-to-month line drive rates doesn't mean a whole lot. For one thing, a month is too small of a sample size for a stat like LD%...it's been shown that line drives don't normalize until about 200 PAs or so, and you'd have to play a lot to get 200 plate appearances in a month. So yeah, there's some variation month-to-month in his line drive rates, but a) that's perfectly normal; and b) I'm not denying that Kelly is streaky.

On the whole, though, where the sample is far more significant, Kelly's luck sucks. Your analysis of Francoeur has the same issues; the difference with Frenchy is that while he's having some hard luck too, he complies that problem by also having no plate discipline.

I think you kind of missed the point of my post all im saying is that as KJs LD% went up his BABIP went up and as it went down his BABIP went down to me thats no mere coincidence when you hit the ball hard good things happen and right now he just isnt, his plate discipline his diminished over the past two seasons with his O-swing% (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) has jumped from 13% in 2005 to 18% in 2007 then it jumped to 26% in 2008 and its back at 24% this season. He is also missing more pitches outside strike zone his O-contact% is up 6% over his career average so the way I see it he is swinging at more balls causing his LD% to drop making the balls he puts in play less likely to get through making his BABIP go down making Johnson SEEM unlucky. When he stops pressing and starts to recognize the strike zone a little better like we know he is capable of I think his "luck" will turn around.

rtgthree
06-23-2009, 11:33 PM
I think you kind of missed the point of my post all im saying is that as KJs LD% went up his BABIP went up and as it went down his BABIP went down to me thats no mere coincidence when you hit the ball hard good things happen and right now he just isnt, his plate discipline his diminished over the past two seasons with his O-swing% (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) has jumped from 13% in 2005 to 18% in 2007 then it jumped to 26% in 2008 and its back at 24% this season. He is also missing more pitches outside strike zone his O-contact% is up 6% over his career average so the way I see it he is swinging at more balls causing his LD% to drop making the balls he puts in play less likely to get through making his BABIP go down making Johnson SEEM unlucky. When he stops pressing and starts to recognize the strike zone a little better like we know he is capable of I think his "luck" will turn around.

Yeah, LD% and BABIP are highly correlated...that's not really a revelation. I see the same trend you do with his swings at pitches outside the zone, but it didn't cause problems last year. I don't deny that he's been changing his approach (which is only natural when you struggle), and I think those changes have been largely detrimental, but any way you want to cut it, there is still a disconnect between his line drive percentage and his BABIP.

Braves_Fan_RSD
06-23-2009, 11:39 PM
Yeah, LD% and BABIP are highly correlated...that's not really a revelation. I see the same trend you do with his swings at pitches outside the zone, but it didn't cause problems last year. I don't deny that he's been changing his approach (which is only natural when you struggle), and I think those changes have been largely detrimental, but any way you want to cut it, there is still a disconnect between his line drive percentage and his BABIP.

The difference is that last year he was hitting the ball with authority no matter where it was pitched. Last year his LD% was 24.7% and his BABIP was .344 maybe just maybe he got extremely lucky last year?

runningcircles
06-24-2009, 02:11 AM
Kelly's way too good of a hitter to be going as bad as he is, offensively, right now. There's no doubt in my mind he's going to turn it around. I would really HATE to have ridden out this long of a cold streak only to bench him now and not ever see his hot streak. I understand everybody's dying to get Prado in our everyday starting lineup but Prado isn't exactly the offensive weapon capable of turning this lineup into a productive one overnight. Look at Kelly's stats over the last 2 seasons. The guy is capable of absolutely carrying our offense when he gets it going at the plate, which he's proven in the past he will do.

The problem with Kelly is just amplified when GA and Frenchy are struggling just as mightily. With the way Garrett has looked of late, and the progression that Frenchy is hopefully making (he never rebounded after he started struggling last season; his AB's over the last week have been impressive when compared to the month and a half of being an automatic out that led up to this last week), I think we can afford to continue waiting for KJ to find his rythm again.

runningcircles
06-24-2009, 02:16 AM
RTG, which site do you use to find stats like you've posted in this thread? I am trying to find out more about wOBA, but from what I've read so far I have to agree that it appears to be the greatest statistical analysis of a players offensive value that I've ever seen. You guys got me on a BABIP kick last season, but there are some obvious flaws in evaluating whether a hitter is just in an unlucky stretch or not. The most obvious example (I've only really followed Braves hitters) is KJ. When he's hitting the ball hard his BABIP is going to be close to his career number of .317. When he's not, it doesn't matter, because a weak ground ball or pop up isn't going to get him on base, no matter how lucky he is. There are only so many broken bat pop ups that will fall in front of the OF.

Braves_Fan_RSD
06-24-2009, 02:46 AM
www.fangraphs.com

runningcircles
06-24-2009, 11:11 AM
www.fangraphs.com
Thanks for the link bud, I actually meant to look this site up the other day when Boog was talking about his favorite "Iliveinmymom'sbasement.com websites" but I wasn't in front of my laptop and by the time I was I couldn't remember which site he said. Appreciate it man.

I've been writing all my 15 page posts directly from memory and your basic Yahoo!/ESPN stats the last couple of seasons. There's no telling what I can do with a website like this one!

nps6724
06-24-2009, 11:13 AM
With this site, you won't be running in circles anymore :D

runningcircles
06-24-2009, 11:17 AM
Thought you guys might enjoy this! MLBTR has an article up which briefly discusses the Brewers looking for pitching depth and how they might be well served to contact the Braves. Well, here's the exact quote: (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/rosenthal-on-strasburg-arroyo-zobrist.html)


The Brewers, who would like to add pitching, could talk with the Braves, who have had interest in Corey Hart in the past.
Nobody's interested in Jeff Francoeur, but the Braves have enviable pitching depth that would entice the Brewers.

I LOL'd pretty hard after reading that and immediately thought it belonged in this post!

rtgthree
06-24-2009, 11:38 AM
Last year his LD% was 24.7% and his BABIP was .344 maybe just maybe he got extremely lucky last year?

With a line drive percentage that high, a .344 BABIP is actually pretty close to expectation. I don't want to say that he didn't get a little help from Lady Luck, but there's nothing especially suspicious about his 2008 performance. His LD% last year might have been a bit fluky, as you say, but that still doesn't change the fact that this year his BABIP should be much higher than it is.


RTG, which site do you use to find stats like you've posted in this thread?

FanGraphs is the single greatest stat site ever. Amazing array of statistical info.


I am trying to find out more about wOBA, but from what I've read so far I have to agree that it appears to be the greatest statistical analysis of a players offensive value that I've ever seen.

Here (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-joy-of-woba/)'s a great primer on wOBA. Fantastic stat.


You guys got me on a BABIP kick last season, but there are some obvious flaws in evaluating whether a hitter is just in an unlucky stretch or not. The most obvious example (I've only really followed Braves hitters) is KJ. When he's hitting the ball hard his BABIP is going to be close to his career number of .317. When he's not, it doesn't matter, because a weak ground ball or pop up isn't going to get him on base, no matter how lucky he is. There are only so many broken bat pop ups that will fall in front of the OF.

Well, BABIP is still one of the most important evaluatory metrics, just it doesn't do much good on its own. If you take a guy's line drive rate in decimal form (i.e., 24.7% becomes .247), and add .120, you get xBABIP, or "expected BABIP." If you have a big gap between actual and expected, then you have a luck flag. Otherwise, luck (good or bad) isn't the issue. But no analysis of a player is complete without a look at his luck.

AustinTheGreat
06-24-2009, 10:03 PM
id take Corey Hart in a heart beat. All i want to do is replace one of the 3 weak spots..either LF, RF or 2nd. I could live with KJ if we got hart cuz KJ could just bad at the bottom and would have less pressure. I also could live with Francoer b/c he also would have less pressure and could bat low in lineup. Also francoer actually provides more in RF then GA aka the bum and diaz. Diaz cant play everyday, he and frency can man RF. Diaz could play mayb 2 games a week.

rtgthree
06-24-2009, 10:23 PM
id take Corey Hart in a heart beat. All i want to do is replace one of the 3 weak spots..either LF, RF or 2nd.

Preferably we'd replace one of those spots with a guy that's actually a good hitter, which Hart really isn't. Not since 2007 anyway.


Also francoer actually provides more in RF then GA aka the bum

You do realize that "The Bum" is hitting .325/.343/.444 since May 10th...that's not earth-shaking but Francoeur would kill for a .788 OPS.

AustinTheGreat
06-25-2009, 03:35 AM
Preferably we'd replace one of those spots with a guy that's actually a good hitter, which Hart really isn't. Not since 2007 anyway.



You do realize that "The Bum" is hitting .325/.343/.444 since May 10th...that's not earth-shaking but Francoeur would kill for a .788 OPS.


You dont want to bring in defense to the conversation, why dont u bring out the Zone stats that you love? GA has been awful in the field, and his body language is pitiful and im not the only one who has said it.

Hart has had 2 full seasons in his career.

He hit .295 with 24 homer , 23 SB in 07
last year he hit .268 20 homer and again 23 SB.

his 20+ sb are valuable and it would be nice to add another base stealing threat like mclouth. ANd hes still relatively young at 27. But i guess hes not a good hitter? Better hitter than KJ, francoer, and diaz and when GA is playing bad like he has so far other than this past month.

rtgthree
06-25-2009, 11:33 AM
You dont want to bring in defense to the conversation, why dont u bring out the Zone stats that you love? GA has been awful in the field, and his body language is pitiful and im not the only one who has said it.

No one's going to argue that he's been an awful fielder, but with his overall offensive numbers trending upwards, he's getting close to the point where his hitting cancels his bad D. Anderson (-0.6 WAR) and Francoeur (-0.5 WAR) have both been equally poor, but at least Anderson is moving in the right direction (which jives with his career trend of being a second-half player).

Oh, and last time I checked, you don't get any runs for good body language, nor do you lose any for poor body language.


Hart has had 2 full seasons in his career.

He hit .295 with 24 homer , 23 SB in 07
last year he hit .268 20 homer and again 23 SB.

his 20+ sb are valuable and it would be nice to add another base stealing threat like mclouth. ANd hes still relatively young at 27. But i guess hes not a good hitter? Better hitter than KJ, francoer, and diaz and when GA is playing bad like he has so far other than this past month.

He was solid in 2007, but he's never even come close to those power numbers in the season-and-a-half since then. There's strong reason to believe 2007 was a fluke. Check out his wOBA numbers season-by-season:

2006: .328
2007: .380
2008: .327
2009: .328

So if not for his fluky '07, he'd be a pretty poor regular in the corner outfield. Better than Francoeur, for sure. Better than KJ right now, perhaps, but not in the long-term. Comparing to Diaz is somewhat apples-to-oranges, since Diaz doesn't do so well playing every day, but for what it's worth Diaz has a career .340 wOBA (better than Hart). As for Anderson, maybe you should recheck your math...it's more than a month from May 10 to June 24; his hot streak has been over about six weeks, and it's continuing.

Hart doesn't add anything, especially when you consider he's about to get expensive as he advances in arbitration, and that he's likely to cost some decent prospects to acquire. Maybe I'd do Reyes and Francoeur for Hart, but that likely wouldn't fly with the Brew Crew.