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View Full Version : New Stat at Basketball Reference - Statistical +/-



JordansBulls
05-15-2009, 01:05 AM
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=1415




The other day, I talked at some length about “statistical plus/minus,” which is just a regression of pure adjusted +/- on the conventional boxscore stats. In that post, I looked into the possibility of predicting the following season using a weighted average of the 3 previous seasons’ SPM scores, but I realize that I sort of skimmed over the statistical +/- metric itself — what are its strengths and weaknesses? What kind of players does it overrate and underrate?


In an effort to better understand the metric and answer these questions, I calculated the career leaders in SPM (combined NBA + ABA, minimum 15,000 career MP) through last Saturday’s games. Here’s the list:

Player Pos G Min SPM
---------------+--+----------+--------+------
michaeljordan G 1072 41013 12.85
wiltchamberlain C 1045 47859 11.59
davidrobinson C 987 34272 10.79
lebronjames F 444 18083 10.00
charlesbarkley F 1073 39330 9.03
k.abdul-jabbar C 1560 57446 9.01
magicjohnson G 906 33245 8.82
larrybird F 897 34443 8.81
juliuserving F 1243 45227 8.57
shaquilleo'neal C 1089 39103 8.21
bobpettit F 792 30690 7.87
clydedrexler G 1086 37537 7.79
oscarrobertson G 1040 43886 7.75
hakeemolajuwon C 1238 44222 7.70
elginbaylor F 846 33863 7.59
karlmalone F 1476 54852 7.50
andreikirilenko F 533 16671 7.37
timduncan F 877 32481 7.30
tracymcgrady F 784 27463 7.12
kevingarnett F 1051 39570 6.91
boblanier C 959 32103 6.24
kobebryant G 921 33584 6.22
jerrywest G 932 36571 6.17
bobbyjones F 941 25728 6.16
conniehawkins F 616 22232 6.08
dirknowitzki F 812 29663 5.97
neiljohnston C 516 18298 5.94
vincecarter G 752 28333 5.88
billrussell C 963 40726 5.85
larrynance F 920 30697 5.74
dolphschayes F 866 29800 5.65
johnstockton G 1504 47764 5.63
rickbarry F 1020 38153 5.56
waltfrazier G 825 30965 5.45
paulpierce F 788 29570 5.30

pd7631
05-15-2009, 01:48 AM
yet another statistic in which Allen Iverson ranks better than Chauncey Billups:up:

Hawkize31
05-15-2009, 01:54 AM
So what does it calculate specifically, all team points, rebounds, blocks, assists, steals minus all that stuff for the other team?

DenButsu
05-15-2009, 02:12 AM
yet another statistic in which Allen Iverson ranks better than Chauncey Billups:up:

To me the more relevant stat is:

DET 39-43
DEN 54-28


/off topic

madiaz3
05-15-2009, 02:14 AM
To me the more relevant stat is:

DET 39-43
DEN 54-28


/off topic

Agreed.

abe_froman
05-15-2009, 02:41 AM
yay another stat to ***** about when(insert fav player)isnt at the top of

madiaz3
05-15-2009, 03:29 AM
yay another stat to ***** about when(insert fav player)is at the top of

lol someone had to say it

montazingmvp
05-15-2009, 05:05 AM
looking at those names at the top. make this seem like a reliable stat...

but what exactly does it calculate...?

SteveNash
05-15-2009, 12:55 PM
I think statistical +/- pretty much proves that it's useless by not coming close at times to actually predicting a players +/-.