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SilverAndBlue
04-25-2009, 01:02 AM
This is getting ridiculous, it truly is. How many games can we expect to win with the lack of run support our offense has provided for the past several games. I think a shakeup of the lineup is in order. At least get Kelly out from the leadoff spot. I think it's time to give Schafer a shot. I know he was striking out a lot a week ago but he's only struck out 4 times (3 BB) over the past 5 games and is 8-19 over that 5 game spread. He's also got his OBP back up to .375. Over that same 5 game stretch, KJ is 8-22, 2 BB, 5 SO and his season OBP is .323

While the numbers are similar, Schafer gives you the speed factor that KJ doesn't possess. Not that Bobby would ever allow Schafer to steal or anything...he doesn't have even 1 attempted steal through 16 games. Bobby needs to let this guy run a little. He was 5-5 in Spring training. This offense needs SOME kind of spark.

Seamhead
04-25-2009, 01:38 AM
This is getting ridiculous, it truly is. How many games can we expect to win with the lack of run support our offense has provided for the past several games. I think a shakeup of the lineup is in order. At least get Kelly out from the leadoff spot. I think it's time to give Schafer a shot. I know he was striking out a lot a week ago but he's only struck out 4 times (3 BB) over the past 5 games and is 8-19 over that 5 game spread. He's also got his OBP back up to .375. Over that same 5 game stretch, KJ is 8-22, 2 BB, 5 SO and his season OBP is .323

Let's not overreact here. Using such a small sample size to make a point doesn't really bolster it.


While the numbers are similar, Schafer gives you the speed factor that KJ doesn't possess. Not that Bobby would ever allow Schafer to steal or anything...he doesn't have even 1 attempted steal through 16 games. Bobby needs to let this guy run a little. He was 5-5 in Spring training. This offense needs SOME kind of spark.

The numbers are not similar at all. CHONE, which incorporates minor league data, has KJ at a projected .822 OPS, and Schafer at a .679 OPS.

Plus, at the end of the day, lineup construction has been shown to not matter that much. Just give your better hitters the most PAs, and by moving KJ from the leadoff and putting Schafer there, you'd be doing the exact opposite.

SilverAndBlue
04-25-2009, 02:08 AM
oh for heaven's sake here we go again. We're not comparing statistics over an entire season. I'm not saying Schafer is a better player than KJ. What I'm saying is that it APPEARS Schafer is starting to settle down a little and he might be ready to slide into the leadoff spot to provide a spark. Bobby has made several lineup changes in the past when a certain player is hot. Schafer poses much more of a threat at the top of the lineup when stealing a base could result in a run. Right now, we just don't have much speed up there.

there's no need in comparing statistics and especially not to incorporate minor league statistics into this argument. All we're looking at is Kelly Johnson vs. Jordan Schafer, who helps the Braves the most in the leadoff spot right now. If you say it's KJ because he's a vet or something like it might put more pressure on Schafer and he may start pressing again, that makes sense. In the past few games, Schafer's numbers are just as good as KJ's numbers. Schafer poses an additional threat with his speed. That's my only argument. Don't make more of it.

Seamhead
04-25-2009, 02:14 AM
oh for heaven's sake here we go again. We're not comparing statistics over an entire season. I'm not saying Schafer is a better player than KJ. What I'm saying is that it APPEARS Schafer is starting to settle down a little and he might be ready to slide into the leadoff spot to provide a spark. Bobby has made several lineup changes in the past when a certain player is hot. Schafer poses much more of a threat at the top of the lineup when stealing a base could result in a run. Right now, we just don't have much speed up there.

there's no need in comparing statistics and especially not to incorporate minor league statistics into this argument. All we're looking at is Kelly Johnson vs. Jordan Schafer, who helps the Braves the most in the leadoff spot right now. If you say it's KJ because he's a vet or something like it might put more pressure on Schafer and he may start pressing again, that makes sense. In the past few games, Schafer's numbers are just as good as KJ's numbers. Schafer poses an additional threat with his speed. That's my only argument. Don't make more of it.

Who helps the Braves more in the leadoff spot?

Pretty simple. The much better hitter, Kelly Johnson. How much ever faster and better of a baserunner Schafer may be, it's not enough to make for .60 points of wOBA or .100 points of OPS. Sorry, but I'll take the better hitter over the .670 OPS "sparkplug".

I'd like to know where exactly I made more of it.

SilverAndBlue
04-25-2009, 02:33 AM
you made more of it by using a statistic which took into account minor league numbers.

This season, Schafer's numbers are very comparable to KJ's up to this point. He probably won't keep it up but it's worth giving it a shot IMO. What we're doing right now hasn't been working.

jmtapia
04-25-2009, 04:39 AM
Schafer is doing great where he is...and he should stay there. With very little experience above A Ball Schafer has been putting up ROY type numbers. There is no doubt that Schafer has been K alot but he has also been walking a ton...to be exact Schafer is on pace to record 75 BB...which for a Rookie would be great. This season should be all about growth and if Cox could avoid putting Schafer in a more pressure packed situation then he should....lets not forget that we are only a dozen games into the season and some of these players are barely getting into the swing of things...give KJ some time and he will go on a tear for us... KJ has been struggling against RHP but he will figure them out...

My only concern here would be Schafer's defense...to this point that, statistically, seems to be the more lacking part of his game...

rtgthree
04-25-2009, 01:04 PM
How many games can we expect to win with the lack of run support our offense has provided for the past several games. I think a shakeup of the lineup is in order.

Lineup order really isn't that important, actually. Over the course of an entire season, using an optimal lineup as compared to a less optimal one is worth only a handful of runs.


At least get Kelly out from the leadoff spot.

Why? Making critical lineup decisions based on a 67 PA sample is rarely intelligent.


I think it's time to give Schafer a shot.

Why? Making critical lineup decisions based on a 64 PA sample is rarely intelligent. I like Schafer, but I really struggle to see why you would play with fire and risk moving him out of the #8 hole where he is clearly comfortable.


While the numbers are similar, Schafer gives you the speed factor that KJ doesn't possess. Not that Bobby would ever allow Schafer to steal or anything...he doesn't have even 1 attempted steal through 16 games. Bobby needs to let this guy run a little. He was 5-5 in Spring training. This offense needs SOME kind of spark.

You make my point for me. In a Bobby Cox-led offense, speed is irrelevant.


What I'm saying is that it APPEARS Schafer is starting to settle down a little and he might be ready to slide into the leadoff spot to provide a spark.

That would seem to imply that we have just been waiting for Schafer to be ready before moving him to leadoff. I question whether that's the smart thing to do.


there's no need in comparing statistics and especially not to incorporate minor league statistics into this argument.

There is absolutely a need for both those things. We're effectively trying to predict the future here, and there's no way to do that without statistical analysis (and so you don't accuse me of using only stats, there is no way to do that without scouting and observation either). And there's no way to conduct statistical analysis without a significant sample size, which means that, for Schafer anyway, minor-league performance must be taken into account.


All we're looking at is Kelly Johnson vs. Jordan Schafer, who helps the Braves the most in the leadoff spot right now.

OK, and you want to do a Johnson vs. Schafer comparison...with no stats whatsoever? Based on what, then? Your personal observations from "watching the games"? Sorry, but I can watch the games and come away with totally different observations.


In the past few games, Schafer's numbers are just as good as KJ's numbers. Schafer poses an additional threat with his speed. That's my only argument. Don't make more of it.

It's just not a good idea to make decisions on "the past few games." Hence the minor-league numbers have to come out.

thomass
04-25-2009, 04:50 PM
johnson is a streaky hitter. Its really painful to watch. Escobar doesnt take pitches. Schafer K's way too much. The braves have no leadoff hitter and havent had one since furcal left. Its amazing that managment has yet to realize how important a leadoff hitter is. And what makes it worse is Ole' Bobby Cox who still thinks this is 1950.

sniglewhat
04-25-2009, 06:44 PM
im just wondering when talking about who would be a better leadoff hitter, why you would use OPS? if anything you would want someone with KJ's OPS hitting 5th, 6th or maybe 3rd one day like cox originally had planned.

sniglewhat
04-25-2009, 06:45 PM
johnson is a streaky hitter. Its really painful to watch. Escobar doesnt take pitches. Schafer K's way too much. The braves have no leadoff hitter and havent had one since furcal left. Its amazing that managment has yet to realize how important a leadoff hitter is. And what makes it worse is Ole' Bobby Cox who still thinks this is 1950.

Schafer also has more walks than anyone on the team. i wouldnt be surprised if he has seen more pitches than anyone on the team. although i dont have the time or patience to look this up.

NBA_Starter
04-25-2009, 10:55 PM
How did you like that offense today? :)

Seamhead
04-25-2009, 11:02 PM
Ok. No need to reply since rtg took care of it, I guess...

08Phils
04-25-2009, 11:23 PM
this is what happens when you have a two man offense.
no disrespect..
just what i think..

sniglewhat
04-26-2009, 12:43 AM
You make my point for me. In a Bobby Cox-led offense, speed is irrelevant.


otis nixon stole 72 bases in a bobby cox led offense

KingsFiend
04-26-2009, 01:00 AM
Lead off man aside, what we're really missing here is B-Mac. He was our hotest hitter starting this season, and might be the best all around hitter we have, next to Chipper "don't call me larry" Jones. And Mac has been hampered big time by his eye proplem and that has forced him to be on the DL. And what have we replaced him with behind Chipper? Casey Kotchman, and no disrespect, but he isn't 1/10 of the hitter Mac is. Not to mention our "true" opening day lineup have only played in, count them, 3 games as a whole. Mac will be back soon, lord knows about Garrett Anderson, but hopefully he will quit "tweeking" that injury and get back in the game.

nps6724
04-26-2009, 01:03 AM
otis nixon stole 72 bases in a bobby cox led offense

...18 years ago. He (3 times) and Furcal (2 times) are also the only Braves since 1991 to steal 40+ bases, and 13 times in that 18-season span we didn't have anyone top 30 SB. Those two were the exception, not the rule. And Furcal didn't even top 30 except for the 2 years he topped 40.

SilverAndBlue
04-26-2009, 10:19 AM
rtg- is your ability to reason fighting with your knowledge of statistics or something? First, you say that a lineup order really isn't that important. Then, you turn around and say it's critical. Which is it?

Bobby has changed the lineup a MILLION times over the years with even less plate appearances. Managers often go with the hot guy at their leadoff spot. If you'll look around the league, there are several teams who have already swapped batters at the leadoff hitter. It happens every year. It's not about projected what a hitter will do over the course of the year, it's about who can help you most today in that spot. You got a guy like KJ who has been struggling vs. Schafer who seems to be turning things around a little and showing more discipline and Schafer has much more speed where he can put himself into scoring position just off one of those walks. Makes all the sense in the world.

The problem with what you and a few others are trying to do with this is use stats and predict what he'll do over the course of the year. Just give a prediction for today....or for the next week. Because if Schafer goes cold and KJ gets hot, you then swap them around again. But I guess if lineup order really isn't that important we'll let our pitcher lead off the inning, bad Chipper 9th so he gets fewer ABs, etc. Please.

rtgthree
04-26-2009, 12:34 PM
im just wondering when talking about who would be a better leadoff hitter, why you would use OPS? if anything you would want someone with KJ's OPS hitting 5th, 6th or maybe 3rd one day like cox originally had planned.
You would use OPS in this specific case because there is still reason to worry about Schafer (I'm talking short-term, not long-term). He's going to be streaky, he's going to have some struggles, and it's too early to say what his season is really going to look like on the whole. That makes him a very risky play in the leadoff spot, especially when you consider that he seems to be pretty comfortable batting eighth. Yes, ideally KJ bats somewhere other than first, but I just don't think the benefit from moving KJ justifies the risk of moving Schafer.

Schafer also has more walks than anyone on the team. i wouldnt be surprised if he has seen more pitches than anyone on the team. although i dont have the time or patience to look this up.
You are correct. Jordan Schafer leads the team in pitches per plate appearance.

rtg- is your ability to reason fighting with your knowledge of statistics or something? First, you say that a lineup order really isn't that important. Then, you turn around and say it's critical. Which is it?
No. I simply failed to make a very important distinction (which, ironically, shows that my understanding of baseball is not solely statistical). From a statistical standpoint, lineup order isn't that big of a deal. Doesn't really matter what order guys hit in. However, that assumes that players will hit the same no matter where they bat in the order. And baseball players aren't androids. They get comfortable hitting certain places in the order, and moving them can have a very real negative impact. So in that sense, the order is critical.

Because the order doesn't matter statistically, it's imperative to find the right combination to get your guys "clicking." And Schafer's obviously doing just fine hitting eighth. Kelly has struggled lately, but he started the season doing just fine leading off. Your argument that Johnson is streaky holds no water because Schafer is just as prone to streaks as KJ.

Bobby has changed the lineup a MILLION times over the years with even less plate appearances. Managers often go with the hot guy at their leadoff spot. If you'll look around the league, there are several teams who have already swapped batters at the leadoff hitter. It happens every year.
It usually happens most often with teams that start out with the wrong leadoff hitter to begin with (take the White Sox this year). The Braves actually picked the right guy (high OBP, pretty good power).

It's not about projected what a hitter will do over the course of the year, it's about who can help you most today in that spot.
To put it simply, that's impossible. You cannot predict with any accuracy at all what a player will do on a given day. Sample size is way too small, and the effects of luck loom way too large. Trying to predict who will be the best leadoff hitter on any given day is pretty futile.

You got a guy like KJ who has been struggling vs. Schafer who seems to be turning things around a little and showing more discipline and Schafer has much more speed where he can put himself into scoring position just off one of those walks. Makes all the sense in the world.
This is the definition of short-sightedness. You're judging KJ on his last ten games after he was on fire in his first ten. You're judging Schafer on his last six games after he went ice cold the six games before that. Schafer's turnaround is very likely temporary, as just about every scouting report I've read on him warns of the possibility of streakiness as he starts his career.

A baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint, and if you make knee-jerk decisions like this, you're going to upset a lot of people on your team, not to mention lose plenty of baseball games because you won't have faith in your good players if they have a cold streak.

Because if Schafer goes cold and KJ gets hot, you then swap them around again.
Put your calculator away, dude. Players aren't androids. You think players can just move around in the lineup every other day and still perform exactly the same? Maybe you should watch some games before you start talking.

But I guess if lineup order really isn't that important we'll let our pitcher lead off the inning, bad Chipper 9th so he gets fewer ABs, etc. Please.
Well, you can't control who leads off innings unfortunately, which is one of the reasons that lineup order matters less (once you get deep in a game, it's a toss-up who will bat with men on base, etc.). The only reason to order the lineup the way teams do is because you do want to get your best hitters more plate appearances.

rtgthree
04-26-2009, 12:54 PM
Another thing I just thought of, Silver. You like to play small ball, and if that's the case, who would be better hitting eighth than Jordan Schafer? He gets on with less than two outs, steals second and then the pitcher bunts him over to third. Voila, man on third. There's definitely an argument to be made for having a "second leadoff man" who bats ahead of the pitcher...with, say, David Ross batting there, you might not even be able to sacrifice bunt all that successfully.

SilverAndBlue
04-26-2009, 08:48 PM
Another thing I just thought of, Silver. You like to play small ball, and if that's the case, who would be better hitting eighth than Jordan Schafer? He gets on with less than two outs, steals second and then the pitcher bunts him over to third. Voila, man on third. There's definitely an argument to be made for having a "second leadoff man" who bats ahead of the pitcher...with, say, David Ross batting there, you might not even be able to sacrifice bunt all that successfully.

you say it's impossible to predict what a player will do on any given day. That's very true...just as much as it is to predict what a player will do in any given year. You can project a player to bat .300 because he's hit .300 for 10 years straight but then he might just have a bad year. I can't even remember what else you wrote right now. I'm brain dead from watching the draft.

You would think it would work hitting Schafer 8th but Bobby Cox refuses to let his baserunners be aggressive. We're near the bottom of the league, if not on the bottom, in both SB attempt and SBs. bobby would rather schafer get on, then get bunted over rather than schafer get on, steal, then get bunted to 3rd with 1 out. I don't get it but anyways.

You talked about players getting comfortable in a particular spot in a lineup and you're dead on with that. i do have to say though, KJ has always hit better at the back end of the lineup. What's he hitting now like .212 with a .307 OBP. I would say he's uncomfortable right now haha.

rtgthree
04-26-2009, 09:35 PM
you say it's impossible to predict what a player will do on any given day. That's very true...just as much as it is to predict what a player will do in any given year. You can project a player to bat .300 because he's hit .300 for 10 years straight but then he might just have a bad year.

You can never be sure, but you have a much better chance of being accurate if you predict over a larger sample size, since things like luck and the quality of opposition will tend to even out the bigger your sample gets. Predicting day-to-day is literally next to impossible; predicting over the course of a season is a much more exact science.


You would think it would work hitting Schafer 8th but Bobby Cox refuses to let his baserunners be aggressive. We're near the bottom of the league, if not on the bottom, in both SB attempt and SBs. bobby would rather schafer get on, then get bunted over rather than schafer get on, steal, then get bunted to 3rd with 1 out. I don't get it but anyways.

I agree with you completely, but you seem to think that Schafer's speed is a reason to bat him first. You at least need to be consistent...if you think that his SB ability is a reason for him to hit 1st, then you also need to count it as a reason for him to hit 8th. Personally, I think it's a total moot point since I almost doubt that the Braves even have a sign for "steal second."


You talked about players getting comfortable in a particular spot in a lineup and you're dead on with that. i do have to say though, KJ has always hit better at the back end of the lineup. What's he hitting now like .212 with a .307 OBP. I would say he's uncomfortable right now haha.

But is that discomfort with his lineup spot or just the fact that he's a streaky player and right now he's in the middle of a cold streak? I acknowledge that KJ might be more comfortable hitting in the middle of the order, but someone has to hit leadoff, and Schafer's not going to be any less streaky than Johnson. I prefer to at least leave the veteran there who ostensibly ought to be better able to adjust to something he's uncomfortable with. On his career, Kelly has an .802 OPS leading off, so I'm not really that worried about his comfort level.

robdizzle3
04-26-2009, 10:49 PM
Another thing I just thought of, Silver. You like to play small ball, and if that's the case, who would be better hitting eighth than Jordan Schafer? He gets on with less than two outs, steals second and then the pitcher bunts him over to third. Voila, man on third. There's definitely an argument to be made for having a "second leadoff man" who bats ahead of the pitcher...with, say, David Ross batting there, you might not even be able to sacrifice bunt all that successfully.

That could works as well to,but if you have a runner on base that is a threat to steal,the pitcher tends to rush his delivery and throw more fastballs,and that's what Yunel would love to see,seeing how he loves to swing at that first pitch.As long as we start to win it really doesnt matter what we do,but if we keep losing,and start to become a streaky team,then it would be time for a change

SilverAndBlue
04-26-2009, 10:56 PM
wait now, first you knock me for calling KJ a streaky player by calling me short-sighted and then you turn around and do the same????

I agree in the stolen bases department. it's ridiculous that we're not more aggressive on the base paths. I still think Schafer poses more of a threat in the leadoff spot over the 8 hole and certainly over the 7 hole where he's been lately. The way I see it, KJ is a streaky player...right now he's in a slump. If you call Schafer a streaky player too, then at least one of them has some speed and might be able to still get an inning going by walking and stealing. So in essence, it would still be like he led off with a double from a walk...but then again...he's got to get the go ahead on the steal

I guess if Cox will never allow Schafer to steal I really don't care where he hits. His speed is nullified anyways if Cox wont let him use it. So I guess I agree with you. If we're not going to steal, then I agree KJ should stay at 1. If he allows him to steal though, then Schafer should hit @ 1.

rtgthree
04-26-2009, 11:06 PM
wait now, first you knock me for calling KJ a streaky player by calling me short-sighted and then you turn around and do the same????

Please quote where I "knocked" you for calling Johnson a streaky player. I absolutely acknowledge that he's streaky. But for me, that means nothing. I don't think you can sit and switch KJ back and forth between first and eighth depending on whether he's hot or cold...if you do that, he'll never get into a rhythm. I also don't think his value goes down at all because he's streaky: if I could choose between a guy that hits a home run every game and a guy who hits four homers every fourth game, I'd say they were both exactly the same so long as it all comes out the same in the end.


I agree in the stolen bases department. it's ridiculous that we're not more aggressive on the base paths. I still think Schafer poses more of a threat in the leadoff spot over the 8 hole and certainly over the 7 hole where he's been lately. The way I see it, KJ is a streaky player...right now he's in a slump. If you call Schafer a streaky player too, then at least one of them has some speed and might be able to still get an inning going by walking and stealing. So in essence, it would still be like he led off with a double from a walk...but then again...he's got to get the go ahead on the steal

I guess if Cox will never allow Schafer to steal I really don't care where he hits. His speed is nullified anyways if Cox wont let him use it. So I guess I agree with you. If we're not going to steal, then I agree KJ should stay at 1. If he allows him to steal though, then Schafer should hit @ 1.

I'm not the biggest fan of the stolen base in general, but even so I think Cox is way too conservative. Still that doesn't change the fact that he IS conservative, and hitting a guy at the top of the lineup because he can run is no advantage if the coaches constantly chain him to the first base bag.

SilverAndBlue
04-27-2009, 11:34 AM
Please quote where I "knocked" you for calling Johnson a streaky player. I absolutely acknowledge that he's streaky. But for me, that means nothing. I don't think you can sit and switch KJ back and forth between first and eighth depending on whether he's hot or cold...if you do that, he'll never get into a rhythm. I also don't think his value goes down at all because he's streaky: if I could choose between a guy that hits a home run every game and a guy who hits four homers every fourth game, I'd say they were both exactly the same so long as it all comes out the same in the end.



I'm not the biggest fan of the stolen base in general, but even so I think Cox is way too conservative. Still that doesn't change the fact that he IS conservative, and hitting a guy at the top of the lineup because he can run is no advantage if the coaches constantly chain him to the first base bag.

You called my shortsighted when I said Johnson was streaky. Maybe I misunderstood you but you kind of made it seem like KJ was a homerun threat or something. KJ only hit 12 homeruns last year. I wouldn't exactly say that's knocking the cover off the ball. He might hit a homerun in back-to-back games and not hit another for a month. If you look at how much he strikes out compared to his homerun total, you can certainly draw the conclusion that he's overly aggressive at times. KJ's OBP dropped 26 pts last season from his 2007 total. While we don't have much to go on yet this year, he certainly isn't providing any optimism that he'll be improving on that number this year. In fact, he looks like he might even have his OBP drop again. Not something you want out of a leadoff htiter.

vtgriff09
04-27-2009, 01:09 PM
i agree....let's not over react by leading off with Schaefer......dumb move. The 8 man should have one of the highest obp's of any player on a national league team. He has the pitcher hitting behind him, and will be pitched around and walked because of it. As mentioned before, KJ is projected to have an obps of around .150 pts higher than Schaefer. KJ is actually pretty fast, but it's not bobby's game to run a lot. KJ is a good player, schaefer is having a ok streak against cincy pitching......let's not get too worked up.

SilverAndBlue
05-03-2009, 12:58 PM
You know I'm not generally the type person that says I told you so, but yeah...I told you so. Schafer will lead off today for the Braves. I guess Cox also has a little common sense and knows when to go with change at the top of the lineup.

SilverandBlue 1
Opponents 0

nps6724
05-03-2009, 03:47 PM
You know I'm not generally the type person that says I told you so, but yeah...I told you so. Schafer will lead off today for the Braves. I guess Cox also has a little common sense and knows when to go with change at the top of the lineup.

SilverandBlue 1
Opponents 0

And he struck out 3 times. And we lost. And we only scored 1 run. Excellent call by Bobby :clap:

rtgthree
05-03-2009, 05:46 PM
And he struck out 3 times. And we lost. And we only scored 1 run. Excellent call by Bobby :clap:

And he got picked off twice. Don't forget that part. Look, Silver, just because the Braves chose to do it doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do. I never said the Braves wouldn't do it. I just said they shouldn't.

JohnnyBoy5
05-03-2009, 06:14 PM
...18 years ago. He (3 times) and Furcal (2 times) are also the only Braves since 1991 to steal 40+ bases, and 13 times in that 18-season span we didn't have anyone top 30 SB. Those two were the exception, not the rule. And Furcal didn't even top 30 except for the 2 years he topped 40.

Good point

JohnnyBoy5
05-03-2009, 06:14 PM
You can never be sure, but you have a much better chance of being accurate if you predict over a larger sample size, since things like luck and the quality of opposition will tend to even out the bigger your sample gets. Predicting day-to-day is literally next to impossible; predicting over the course of a season is a much more exact science.



I agree with you completely, but you seem to think that Schafer's speed is a reason to bat him first. You at least need to be consistent...if you think that his SB ability is a reason for him to hit 1st, then you also need to count it as a reason for him to hit 8th. Personally, I think it's a total moot point since I almost doubt that the Braves even have a sign for "steal second."



But is that discomfort with his lineup spot or just the fact that he's a streaky player and right now he's in the middle of a cold streak? I acknowledge that KJ might be more comfortable hitting in the middle of the order, but someone has to hit leadoff, and Schafer's not going to be any less streaky than Johnson. I prefer to at least leave the veteran there who ostensibly ought to be better able to adjust to something he's uncomfortable with. On his career, Kelly has an .802 OPS leading off, so I'm not really that worried about his comfort level.


lol

SilverAndBlue
05-03-2009, 10:06 PM
And he got picked off twice. Don't forget that part. Look, Silver, just because the Braves chose to do it doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do. I never said the Braves wouldn't do it. I just said they shouldn't.

oh of course....future hall of famer Bobby Cox should have consulted with you first right...because you know a little more than he right??? RIIIIIIIIGHT. Cox sees that his team is struggling offensively and he knows he has to shakeup the lineup to get something going. You dont' wait until half the season is over to do that after you've completely fallen out of any pennant race....just for the sake of having a large sample proportion that you like to talk about. Please. Your argument has now become laughable.

A_Brave_Pack
05-03-2009, 10:11 PM
^^^Dude. You're a little out of line. This is ZERO need to insult people's intelligence. Have a dissenting opinion, back it up with facts, and be willing to listen and respond accordingly.

By the way, his argument is not laughable.

AustinTheGreat
05-03-2009, 10:50 PM
This team will never win with this offense. Every team has at least 2-3 guys that have potential to hit 30 homers . We have none. Frenchy i think could get into the high 20s if he has a year like 2 years ago and his 2006 year. CHipper wont get close. Mccann could of maybe gotten into the high 20s with frenchy but i doubt it now with this injury he missed nearly a month. This team has no power whatsoever. We used to be a get two on hit a three run homer type of team. Now i have no idea what type of team this is. Get on and hope to get more hits? This lineup is simply not a threat to pitchers. Chipper is showing his age and limited power. i saw a stat early this year that last year despite chippers great AVG he had the least extra base hits of his whole career. Diaz would not start on any other MLB team. KJ is overrated and streaky. He will hit great in 2-3 series to ballon his AVG and then go cold for 2-3 series where he hits like .200 or less to bring it down. Kotchman is our clean up hitter and he has no homers...kotchman on another team would be a low order hitter. 6th, 7th or 8th. I wish i could say that we could make a trade and be right in there but i just cant. Because realistically i think the braves have no chance on winning the divison and none the less get in the playoffs. And this is frustrating and surprising for me to say on May 3, when im usually telling others to not jump on the band wagon so quick but this team simply does not have the weapons and tools to win this divison where alot of runs are scored. The pitching is the best part of this team and i think we could trade Jojo reyes and it wouldnt hurt us. We have to make room for hansen and i heard a guy named medlan? is doing good. My dream would be to trade KJ and JoJo for a left fielder but i dont think in a million years that would happen b/c bobby believes*. Ive been a huge bobby fan and defended him but what if his style is just wearing off. We've seen it in other coaches, sometimes its just time to call it quits and the organization gets a new coach , new attitude, and a shake up and boy does this team need it.

- A very frustrated braves fan

runningcircles
05-03-2009, 11:12 PM
I was reading what you guys were writing back and forth, and could really make sense out of both sides of the argument, but, our offense is so inept at this point in the season, and the team is so frustrating to watch right now, I can't read any more about stats, important or not.

The thing I'd like to know is what Kelly Johnson's stats are as a leadoff hitter. He just DOESN'T seem comfortable hitting in that spot in the order. It seems as if we've had him there for parts of each of the last 3 seasons, and he's always struggled in that spot, then begun to flourish when he was moved out of that spot, and into a lower spot in the order. I also remember Escobar hitting first in the order for a short time last season, and he seemed even less comfortable in that spot.

For those reasons alone, I think Schafer should almost be the leadoff hitter based on default. Unless Infante is in the lineup, who doesn't seem to mind where he hits, I can't think of anybody better to hit there than Schafer at this point in time. Everybody else seems to struggle in that spot, and I'd honestly rather have one of our more PROVEN hitters (KJ) hitting in a spot where he feels more comfortable.

I was going to make this argument, but I then read where RTG explained himself in a later post. I'll still touch on it. It may be proven that over a course of a year, lineup order, has little to no effect on total runs scored over a season, but I don't think that takes into account for a player's "comfort" hitting in a certain spot in the order. I think we need to have much more CONTINUITY and COMFORT in our lineup, meaning players know what to perhaps EXPECT from the player hitting in front of, and behind, them in the order. For that reason, I think we're better set going ahead and getting our lineup that we expect to have at the end of the season, as our current everyday lineup. I think we put everybody where they are best suited to hit, then fill in the holes with the hitters we don't know much about yet. The only hitter we don't know much about yet is JS, the weakest spot in the lineup we have on an everyday basis is leadoff hitter, not to mention Schafer has been spoken of as an everyday leadoff hitter for the last 2 years, so I think he is as good a fit as we have to hit there.

runningcircles
05-03-2009, 11:21 PM
Also, I should probably mention, my argument probably makes zero sense, can't be backed up by any statistical analysis (not any that I've done, I may be right about KJ consistently hitting better in a lower spot in the order rather than leadoff, but I haven't looked it up, so I don't know), and I probably contradicted myself all throughout it, but I'm just as frustrated as every other Braves fan out there, because the only thing the hitters have done consistently this season, is to be as inconsistent as a lineup as I can ever remember watching.

It probably doesn't matter what we do with our lineup until we have an everyday, successful hitting, cleanup hitter to give Chipper better pitches to hit and have an effect on everybody else hitting in the order. That means it probably doesn't matter until McCann comes back, and his eye problems are well behind him. Let's just hope and pray that the glasses are comfortable, and he is able to come back and be the hitter he was at the beginning of the year, as early as he possibly can.

Probably doesn't even matter either way though, as I'm sure that by the time McCann comes back and gets it going, Chipper will pull a hammy, or bruise a thumb, or destroy another one of his often injured feet. That's just how things have gone for us the last few seasons.

If nothing else, it proves just how valuable having Mark Teixeira was on our everyday lineup for that full year we had him (yes, watching the Rangers game tonight, we probably gave up 2 everyday starters, along with 2 top of the rotation starting pitchers, and an excellent relief pitcher here and there, all for less than 162 games of Big Tex). I'd like to see what Chipper's batting average was for AB he hit in front of Tex the previous 2 years. I know last year he was hitting close to .400 for most of the first half of the season, when Tex was still with us, and ended up at somewhere around .365, for the season, meaning he had a much lower average over the 2nd half of the year, most of which Teixeira was no longer a Brave.

Jon93405
05-03-2009, 11:42 PM
Kotchman/Jo-Jo for a slugging first baseman or B. Jones/Jo-Jo for a slugging outfielder would be a big boost right now. Getting a guy with a couple years left on a contract at either position would be ideal.

I like Kotchman, and I like B. Jones... but not both in the same lineup at the 2 positions we should be getting the best offense from.

Looking at the teams falling out of it early:

Orioles... 9-16 in impossible division, bad and feeble pitching, Luke Scott and/or Aubrey Huff would give a nice offensive boost.

The Orioles could give Jo-Jo what he needs, an environment where he can just go out and throw every 5 days without being expected to win.

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 12:30 AM
^^^Dude. You're a little out of line. This is ZERO need to insult people's intelligence. Have a dissenting opinion, back it up with facts, and be willing to listen and respond accordingly.

By the way, his argument is not laughable.

I didn't insult anyone's intelligence and I certainly wasn't out of line if you will take the time to read this entire thread. To try and back your argument by saying that what Cox did was wrong...because YOU don't think so, IS laughable. Maybe not to you because you probably disagree with me, but it is actually very funny.

nps6724
05-04-2009, 12:56 AM
I didn't insult anyone's intelligence and I certainly wasn't out of line if you will take the time to read this entire thread. To try and back your argument by saying that what Cox did was wrong...because YOU don't think so, IS laughable. Maybe not to you because you probably disagree with me, but it is actually very funny.

Results with Schafer leading off: 2-for-5, 1 2B, 3 SO, 0 SB, 1 CS, picked off once, 0 walks, 0 runs, lost 5-1

The 2 times he actually made contact he got hits, but he got himself out both times he got on base. He may have well as struck out all 5 times because the end result was the same: no one on base.

Say what you want, but in the 1 game he was leading off, he did NOTHING to help the team offensively and produced 5 outs on his own. So to say it's laughable to disagree with Bobby is just plain ignorant. He's not infalliable and he's made more than enough mistakes over the past 19 years to be questioned. For all those regular-season wins and playoff appearances, he still only led us to one World Series victory. With probably the greatest pitching staff to ever live. So yeah, many of his decisions SHOULD be questioned.

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 02:11 AM
what's even more laughable is how some of you argued with me about sample size, then turn around and use 1 GAME to make an argument against Schafer. Good job...good job

nps6724
05-04-2009, 07:40 AM
what's even more laughable is how some of you argued with me about sample size, then turn around and use 1 GAME to make an argument against Schafer. Good job...good job

The point is that the numbers that are available, however small they may be, do not agree with Bobby's decision so for you to say it's laughable for anyone to disagree with him is just dumb. It wasn't even a partial success; it was an out-and-out failure due to Schafer's baserunning mistakes.

vtgriff09
05-04-2009, 09:46 AM
aubrey huff would be ideal.....he can play 1b, 3b or of......problem is i think he makes a little over 9 mill a yr. Can we afford him?

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 10:47 AM
The point is that the numbers that are available, however small they may be, do not agree with Bobby's decision so for you to say it's laughable for anyone to disagree with him is just dumb. It wasn't even a partial success; it was an out-and-out failure due to Schafer's baserunning mistakes.

I'm not disagreeing with you that Schafer had a bad game in his shot at leadoff. He was being overly aggressive and paid the price. However, for you to argue that Kelly Johnson didn't have enough sample size after MANY games to be replaced yet and then turn around and say Schafer had one bad game, let's get him outta there, shows me that you aren't real consistent with your stance.

At this point I'm with running circles. It really doesn't matter who hits leadoff or anywhere else for that matter. This team has essentially no power. Our pitching is good enough to keep us close in the games but our offense is horrid. Only 5 teams in the entire league have scored less runs than the Braves. Of those 5 teams, only 2 have a winning record at this point in the season. The braves need a power hitting RH bat, just like they needed one prior to the season. Until they do, I hold no confidence that we can compete with the rest of our division.

nps6724
05-04-2009, 10:51 AM
I'm not disagreeing with you that Schafer had a bad game in his shot at leadoff. He was being overly aggressive and paid the price. However, for you to argue that Kelly Johnson didn't have enough sample size after MANY games to be replaced yet and then turn around and say Schafer had one bad game, let's get him outta there, shows me that you aren't real consistent with your stance.

Care to point out where I said KJ's sample size was too small? I think you aren't real consistent with who you're arguing with. I think KJ is the best leadoff guy we have at the moment, despite his struggles so far. Schafer isn't ready and Infante, who has done well thus far leading off, doesn't play everyday.

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 01:08 PM
Care to point out where I said KJ's sample size was too small? I think you aren't real consistent with who you're arguing with. I think KJ is the best leadoff guy we have at the moment, despite his struggles so far. Schafer isn't ready and Infante, who has done well thus far leading off, doesn't play everyday.

you are correct. You have not argued sample size. I guess I have taken a "me against everyone" approach on this forum as it seems a little cliquish. At any rate, I still disagree with you that KJ is the best leadoff hitter we have right now. Just for kicks, say out team was only lacking a lead off hitter right now. KJ and Schafer are performing pretty much on the same level. Both are too inconsistent and unreliable right now batting first. Infante has bill murdering the ball. Maybe the Braves should start considering giving him a little more playing time at 2B. Not saying that would be an answer long term, but for now when everyone seems to be struggling at that position except him, why not just leave him there. Right now, he's one of our most consistent hitters.

nps6724
05-04-2009, 01:13 PM
I agree with Infante, but he's not getting to play everyday so he's not a viable option.

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 01:28 PM
I agree with Infante, but he's not getting to play everyday so he's not a viable option.

but if he's outperforming everyone else, he should be playing everyday right? Since coming to the Braves, when given a chance, he's done nothing but play sound, smart baseball. The Braves...I think...signed him to a 2 year contract with 2011 being a club buyout option year. He's only 27 years old. Why not make a trade using Kelly Johnson/Jo Jo Reyes/and another prospect...maybe Brandon Jones for a RH power hitter with a few years left on his contract. Maybe that's not the right combination of players or whatever but I think now is the time to make a move if this season is going to be salvaged. The Braves cannot expect the Phillies, Mets and even the Marlins to continue to play as poorly as they have up to this point. They have way too much talent to do so. The Braves however, are offensively inept.

nps6724
05-04-2009, 01:34 PM
but if he's outperforming everyone else, he should be playing everyday right? Since coming to the Braves, when given a chance, he's done nothing but play sound, smart baseball. The Braves...I think...signed him to a 2 year contract with 2011 being a club buyout option year. He's only 27 years old. Why not make a trade using Kelly Johnson/Jo Jo Reyes/and another prospect...maybe Brandon Jones for a RH power hitter with a few years left on his contract. Maybe that's not the right combination of players or whatever but I think now is the time to make a move if this season is going to be salvaged. The Braves cannot expect the Phillies, Mets and even the Marlins to continue to play as poorly as they have up to this point. They have way too much talent to do so. The Braves however, are offensively inept.

Well, that's the call of one Bobby Cox. I think Infante has done more than enough to warrant starting everyday, whether or not it's at the same position everyday. He just knows how to play. And if Bobby won't let him be the everyday 2nd, then what I wouldn't mind seeing is him playing 2nd 4 games, LF 1-2 games, and 3rd 1 game (to give Chipper a day off) out of every 7 games. So he'd play 7 games and could be moved around based on matchups. That would leave Prado/KJ at 2nd, Diaz/GA in LF, and obviously Chipper at 3rd on the days Infante doesn't play in that spot. One thing I am sure of, Infante deserves to play everyday. But OTOH, Diaz "earned" the right to play everyday after 2 great years hitting-wise and he dropped hard last year before his injury.

atl_braves_fan
05-04-2009, 02:22 PM
But OTOH, Diaz "earned" the right to play everyday after 2 great years hitting-wise and he dropped hard last year before his injury.

In my opinionDiaz should have lost that opportunity by now. He hit well a few years ago, but his bat is not nearly good enough to make up for his horrible glove right now. He is 31 years old too ... maybe he just is what he is going to be (i.e. a decent bench player that shouldn't be an everyday player).

nps6724
05-04-2009, 02:30 PM
I think that's why GA was signed.

A_Brave_Pack
05-04-2009, 02:48 PM
Silver,

My bad. In the context of the discussion, your post I commented was a little brash, but you are correct, it was not the attack I initially took it to be. I should not be so quick to reprimand anyone. After all, that is not my job. My job is to, instead, come online and discuss the Braves (and my other teams). I don't want you to feel like it is "you against the world" here. You bring a very polarizing dissenting opinion, and without people like you who bring up these opinions, this forum would be very vanilla, and boring.

Here's to you. :cheers:

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 02:53 PM
Silver,

My bad. In the context of the discussion, your post I commented was a little brash, but you are correct, it was not the attack I initially took it to be. I should not be so quick to reprimand anyone. After all, that is not my job. My job is to, instead, come online and discuss the Braves (and my other teams). I don't want you to feel like it is "you against the world" here. You bring a very polarizing dissenting opinion, and without people like you who bring up these opinions, this forum would be very vanilla, and boring.

Here's to you. :cheers:

It's all good Brave Pack. I hold no ill will towards anyone on this forum, no matter how much I may disagree with them on various topics. You're correct. Without a difference of opinions, this forum would suck because we would all be yessing each other.

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 03:05 PM
just read where GA refused a rehab assignment in the minors. You know I've tried to remain patient with this guy but he's starting to piss me off. He's been virtually useless so far and he can't even take a few rehab starts in the minors to get on track after recovering from an injury? What a jerk.

BRAVE KID
05-04-2009, 03:18 PM
GA a jerk? I don't think that is the case, he may be stubborn but not a jerk, I just think he wants to eagerly help out the club...although a couple of games in the minors wouldn't hurt. He is a solid pro hitter, he knows himself better than we do and if this is what he thinks is best for him then so be it.

atl_braves_fan
05-04-2009, 03:19 PM
just read where GA refused a rehab assignment in the minors. You know I've tried to remain patient with this guy but he's starting to piss me off. He's been virtually useless so far and he can't even take a few rehab starts in the minors to get on track after recovering from an injury? What a jerk.

That was my initial reaction to the headline as well, but Bobby Cox left it up to him and he said that he didn't feel that he needed it to come back. He has probably been around long enough to know whether he needs to see some pitches or not (he certainly has lots of practice over the past few years coming off of injuries). At this point, the Braves may as well activate him and put him in the lineup -- it is not going to be any worse with him in there.

A_Brave_Pack
05-04-2009, 03:29 PM
GA a jerk? I don't think that is the case, he may be stubborn but not a jerk, I just think he wants to eagerly help out the club...although a couple of games in the minors wouldn't hurt. He is a solid pro hitter, he knows himself better than we do and if this is what he thinks is best for him then so be it.

BK, I think GA is being unreasonable if not a jerk. The Braves asked him to go to Gwinnett tonight and get one game in before activating him tomorrow. He told management "No, I don't need a rehab assignment" when he has only racked up 25ABs this year (and is hitting an impressive .200P), and has proven less than a 'company man' since he has gotten here.

The Braves were not asking him to delay his activation on Tuesday. They were merely asking him to drive 45mins to Gwinnett for tonight's game, get a little sweat, and be ready for tomorrow. Instead, GA decided he would kick back for one more night before tomorrow night. GA has not done a whole lot to endear himself to the Atlanta Braves fan, and now, with this refusal, he has now began to lift the middle finger to the Braves FO.

I would not be shocked to see GA released if he keeps down the track he has gotten on since signing with Atlanta.

nps6724
05-04-2009, 03:30 PM
...and has proven less than a 'company man' since he has gotten here.

How so? I'm not being condescending, I honestly don't know.

atl_braves_fan
05-04-2009, 03:35 PM
The only thing that GA needs to do to endear himself to this Braves fan is get onto the field and produce. I was not a fan of his signing and I thought that the Braves should have explored the trade market a little more, but at this point (i.e. with no better option until late in the summer which may be too late) I am not ready to say that he should be released. He has to be better than what the Braves have put out there in the lineup so far this season.

BRAVE KID
05-04-2009, 03:44 PM
BK, I think GA is being unreasonable if not a jerk. The Braves asked him to go to Gwinnett tonight and get one game in before activating him tomorrow. He told management "No, I don't need a rehab assignment" when he has only racked up 25ABs this year (and is hitting an impressive .200P), and has proven less than a 'company man' since he has gotten here.

The Braves were not asking him to delay his activation on Tuesday. They were merely asking him to drive 45mins to Gwinnett for tonight's game, get a little sweat, and be ready for tomorrow. Instead, GA decided he would kick back for one more night before tomorrow night. GA has not done a whole lot to endear himself to the Atlanta Braves fan, and now, with this refusal, he has now began to lift the middle finger to the Braves FO.

I would not be shocked to see GA released if he keeps down the track he has gotten on since signing with Atlanta.as I said he is an established professional hitter (a career .296 hitter to be exact) I think he knows by now what he needs/or doesn't need in this case in order to be prepared. is he being unreasonable? possibly, I don't disagree with that, but I don't think he has made a history of this (correct me if I am wrong), I'm willing to give him some leeway with this statement.

HOWEVER, if he doesn't produce then my patience will be nonexistent.

A_Brave_Pack
05-04-2009, 03:50 PM
How so? I'm not being condescending, I honestly don't know.


I understand what you mean. Perhaps it was an unfair statement, but what I meant was that GA has not proven much to the FO to justify the money spent on him this off-season.

I know, I am not in the Braves clubhouse, so I do not see all the work that GA is putting in. It is just strange to me that he could pull three muscles within the first month of signing a contract with the Braves.

AustinTheGreat
05-04-2009, 04:05 PM
Kotchman/Jo-Jo for a slugging first baseman or B. Jones/Jo-Jo for a slugging outfielder would be a big boost right now. Getting a guy with a couple years left on a contract at either position would be ideal.

I like Kotchman, and I like B. Jones... but not both in the same lineup at the 2 positions we should be getting the best offense from.

Looking at the teams falling out of it early:

Orioles... 9-16 in impossible division, bad and feeble pitching, Luke Scott and/or Aubrey Huff would give a nice offensive boost.

The Orioles could give Jo-Jo what he needs, an environment where he can just go out and throw every 5 days without being expected to win.

I have the same feeling. Kotchman, diaz and KJ could be in the lineup if they werent all in the lineup together. We can have one or two but not all. I think kotchman would be a great 6th-8th hitter and hes under contract for the next couple years so thats good. So i would try to move Jojo and KJ or B jones or someone for a leftfielder or 2ndbaseman. Luke scott could play left and huff probably could too hes one of those players that can play anywhere.

rtgthree
05-04-2009, 04:08 PM
The thing I'd like to know is what Kelly Johnson's stats are as a leadoff hitter.
He's a career .263/.354/.440 hitter batting leadoff, which is decidedly not bad. The reason he's struggling this year has nothing to do with where he's hitting and everything to do with the fact that his BABIP is .224. Bump his BABIP up 70 points to normal, and suddenly he's hitting .289 with an OBP near .400. He just needs his luck to even out.

Everybody else seems to struggle in that spot, and I'd honestly rather have one of our more PROVEN hitters (KJ) hitting in a spot where he feels more comfortable.
Wait...wouldn't you rather have the rookie hitter in a spot where he's comfortable?! The veteran should be able to adjust, but putting a rookie in an uncomfortable spot seems like suicide.

I'm just as frustrated as every other Braves fan out there, because the only thing the hitters have done consistently this season, is to be as inconsistent as a lineup as I can ever remember watching.
I can understand your frustration, but making decisions and/or judgments while frustrated is rarely a good idea.

I'd like to see what Chipper's batting average was for AB he hit in front of Tex the previous 2 years. I know last year he was hitting close to .400 for most of the first half of the season, when Tex was still with us, and ended up at somewhere around .365, for the season, meaning he had a much lower average over the 2nd half of the year, most of which Teixeira was no longer a Brave.
I ran the numbers a while ago during a discussion about lineup protection. From 2007-08, Chipper's OPS with Teixeira was only negligibly higher than his OPS without Tex. Teixeira helped by creating runs himself; he didn't make Chipper any better or worse.

what's even more laughable is how some of you argued with me about sample size, then turn around and use 1 GAME to make an argument against Schafer. Good job...good job
No one's using one game to make an argument against Schafer. Here's what you don't understand about sample size: it only really matters if something unexpected happens. So if a player is on fire or ice cold, you can easily say "oh, the sample size is too small." But if a player is doing exactly what you expect him to do based on previous performance, then sample size is pretty much irrelevant. Schafer struggling in the leadoff spot is expected, because he's still learning the ropes of the major-league game. It's not surprising.

I grant that one game is not even close to enough to make an accurate judgment, and I hope he succeeds leading off. I really do. And one thing I haven't taken into account is that, for a team in free fall (like the Braves are now), it can't hurt to take their chances. But I guarantee this: Johnson's performance is going to improve as his BABIP rises (from .224), and Schafer's performance is going to suffer as his BABIP falls (from a ludicrous .400). Bobby has to be able to pull the trigger and switch them back when that shift takes place; I just fear that if Schafer gets entrenched up there, Bobby will keep him there. I'm not even worried about wins and losses...with Schafer, I'm worried about the effect that a slump might have on his long-term development.

but if he's outperforming everyone else, he should be playing everyday right?
Wrong. That line of thinking is how Willie Harris got 391 plate appearances in 2007. I don't mind playing the hot hand, but the problem with doing that is that often the long-term gets lost. Kelly Johnson's luck is going to turn around...it's inevitable. And that can't happen if he rides pine four times a week. You come out worse off. There's a very delicate balance between getting the hot bats in the lineup and playing the guys who are most talented and thus most likely to succeed over longer periods of time. And any time you tip that balance one way or the other, you risk real problems (either you play a hot hand too long and he gets cold, or your lineup suffers because you refuse to rest a starter that's struggling). Cox is doing the right thing, getting Kelly a couple days of rest but certainly not taking away his starting job.

One thing I am sure of, Infante deserves to play everyday. But OTOH, Diaz "earned" the right to play everyday after 2 great years hitting-wise and he dropped hard last year before his injury.
Be very careful. Diaz is a great example of a guy that does great in limited duty but who can easily get overexposed playing too much. I like Infante, don't get me wrong. But last year, he posted a .755 OPS, which makes him a barely-above-average second baseman or shortstop, and WAY below average at third or in left (even setting aside the fact that his outfield defense is poor). I am a HUGE fan of resting starters when you have talented backups, so I see no reason why Infante shouldn't spell Yunel Escobar at least once a week and pick up a start here and there against LHPs at second base and for Chipper to keep the #3 hitter healthy. I'd love to see Omar play more...but every day is a stretch.

AustinTheGreat
05-04-2009, 04:08 PM
but if he's outperforming everyone else, he should be playing everyday right? Since coming to the Braves, when given a chance, he's done nothing but play sound, smart baseball. The Braves...I think...signed him to a 2 year contract with 2011 being a club buyout option year. He's only 27 years old. Why not make a trade using Kelly Johnson/Jo Jo Reyes/and another prospect...maybe Brandon Jones for a RH power hitter with a few years left on his contract. Maybe that's not the right combination of players or whatever but I think now is the time to make a move if this season is going to be salvaged. The Braves cannot expect the Phillies, Mets and even the Marlins to continue to play as poorly as they have up to this point. They have way too much talent to do so. The Braves however, are offensively inept.

Who knows maybe imanfte can hit like .300 with some homers and provide alot of runs or something. He has shown he can hit. THe question is the sample size but i think theres nothing to lose because in my eyes KJ kills us because of his inconsistant play. We could trade jojo and KJ and upgrade pretty well for a Leftfielder. Kj and jojo is a pretty good offer that could land a huff or luke scott or one of those type of OFer that are underrated but produce quietly.

rtgthree
05-04-2009, 04:15 PM
I understand what you mean. Perhaps it was an unfair statement, but what I meant was that GA has not proven much to the FO to justify the money spent on him this off-season.

I know, I am not in the Braves clubhouse, so I do not see all the work that GA is putting in. It is just strange to me that he could pull three muscles within the first month of signing a contract with the Braves.
I agree. I think Anderson's been a pretty ornery presence since Day 1. Doesn't really talk to the media, reported to be a pretty stubborn guy. And now to refuse a rehab assignment? Sorry, but when your team tells you to do a rehab assignment, you do it. If my employer told me to go take a training class to help me do my job better, they would be appalled if I said no, regardless of whether or not I thought I needed the extra training.

Kotchman, diaz and KJ could be in the lineup if they werent all in the lineup together.
So true. We have tons of solid secondary players...the only problem is they are all being counted on as primary players. But let's face it: we knew that going into the season, and we were just crossing our fingers for the best.

So i would try to move Jojo and KJ or B jones or someone for a leftfielder or 2ndbaseman. Luke scott could play left and huff probably could too hes one of those players that can play anywhere.
I question Brandon Jones' trade value. I think he's a prospective fourth outfielder at best, and he hasn't shown enough at the top levels to really bring that much back in trade. As for trading Kelly Johnson to the Orioles, that's not going to work because of this guy named Brian Roberts, who just signed a huge extension to stay in Baltimore.

Trading KJ right now would be a huge mistake anyway. He is way too talented, and he's going to improve as his BABIP rises (and it will rise). Infante and Prado are both playing over their heads right now also, so let's not get carried away. Deals don't get made at this time of the year anyway, and if Johnson is still struggling like this come July, it won't even be worth trading him because we'll be so far out of contention that it won't matter.

Jon93405
05-04-2009, 04:15 PM
It's just a shame that we really don't have a single power bat in AAA or AA we can even consider to help boost the offense.

AustinTheGreat
05-04-2009, 04:15 PM
This is all just useless talk because the braves wont do anything. They came into this season thinking that this lineup could compete. Little did they know they are terribly wrong. They did great with pitching. We could think of trades like Jojo and KJ or B jones for a leftfielder but they signed Anderson and he hasnt even played yet. So in their eyes once GA comes back then it will be fixed.

rtgthree
05-04-2009, 04:21 PM
This is all just useless talk because the braves wont do anything. They came into this season thinking that this lineup could compete.
I disagree. I think the Braves came into this season HOPING that this lineup could compete. Honestly, I can't see anything they could have really done this winter to make the offense better. There was talk of trading for Ryan Ludwick but the Cardinals wanted a king's ransom (KJ plus a significant pitching prospect). And by the time they got done fixing the pitching, there wasn't any money left for an Adam Dunn or a Bobby Abreu. I don't think there was really any place to cut back on the pitching side; they absolutely needed three new starters. There was no choice but to stick with what we had and hope it would work.

But let's not be hasty: get McCann back, get Johnson hitting again, get a little something out of Brandon Jones, and it's a ballgame again.

AustinTheGreat
05-04-2009, 04:27 PM
possibly OFer i would trade for maybe: Cuddyer, or Kubel.
The twins OF is crowded with gomez, cuddyer, span, kubel, and delmon young...they could trade one. And their 2nd baseman doesnt provide much for them.
Athletics have Travis buck and Jack Cust..and could use a 2nd baseman b/c ellis is always injured and crosby hits under 240.

AustinTheGreat
05-04-2009, 04:29 PM
I disagree. I think the Braves came into this season HOPING that this lineup could compete. Honestly, I can't see anything they could have really done this winter to make the offense better. There was talk of trading for Ryan Ludwick but the Cardinals wanted a king's ransom (KJ plus a significant pitching prospect). And by the time they got done fixing the pitching, there wasn't any money left for an Adam Dunn or a Bobby Abreu. I don't think there was really any place to cut back on the pitching side; they absolutely needed three new starters. There was no choice but to stick with what we had and hope it would work.

But let's not be hasty: get McCann back, get Johnson hitting again, get a little something out of Brandon Jones, and it's a ballgame again.

True , we do get mccann back and if GA gets healthy and hits around .280-.300 with 15ish homers like last year maybe we will be ok. But u said get johnson hitting again? he will hit for a couple series and then go dead again.

rtgthree
05-04-2009, 04:34 PM
But u said get johnson hitting again? he will hit for a couple series and then go dead again.

That's not necessarily true. The only reason he's cold right now is bad luck, not streakiness. He hit consistently in the second half last year, and was picking up right where he left off until his luck on balls in play went through the floor. A rising tide raises all boats: his BABIP will come back to normal, and he'll be that .275/.375/.475 hitter we all knew and loved.

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 06:44 PM
That was my initial reaction to the headline as well, but Bobby Cox left it up to him and he said that he didn't feel that he needed it to come back. He has probably been around long enough to know whether he needs to see some pitches or not (he certainly has lots of practice over the past few years coming off of injuries). At this point, the Braves may as well activate him and put him in the lineup -- it is not going to be any worse with him in there.

actually Cox didn't leave it up to him. It's in GA's contract that it be left up to him. Here's my deal with it, you don't see other players refusing to take minor league assignments after an injury. I think even Chipper has recently taken some minor league assignments and I know McCann has. So why is GA so special? Forget the fact that it was in his contract to have the final decision. He should have taken the minor league assignment until he's proven ready to take up a roster spot on the MLB team. It's even being reported that management was shocked by his decision to refused a minor league assignment. I'm not giving the guy a pass on this one.

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 06:55 PM
No one's using one game to make an argument against Schafer. Here's what you don't understand about sample size: it only really matters if something unexpected happens. So if a player is on fire or ice cold, you can easily say "oh, the sample size is too small." But if a player is doing exactly what you expect him to do based on previous performance, then sample size is pretty much irrelevant. Schafer struggling in the leadoff spot is expected, because he's still learning the ropes of the major-league game. It's not surprising.

I grant that one game is not even close to enough to make an accurate judgment, and I hope he succeeds leading off. I really do. And one thing I haven't taken into account is that, for a team in free fall (like the Braves are now), it can't hurt to take their chances. But I guarantee this: Johnson's performance is going to improve as his BABIP rises (from .224), and Schafer's performance is going to suffer as his BABIP falls (from a ludicrous .400). Bobby has to be able to pull the trigger and switch them back when that shift takes place; I just fear that if Schafer gets entrenched up there, Bobby will keep him there. I'm not even worried about wins and losses...with Schafer, I'm worried about the effect that a slump might have on his long-term development.

Wrong. That line of thinking is how Willie Harris got 391 plate appearances in 2007. I don't mind playing the hot hand, but the problem with doing that is that often the long-term gets lost. Kelly Johnson's luck is going to turn around...it's inevitable. And that can't happen if he rides pine four times a week. You come out worse off. There's a very delicate balance between getting the hot bats in the lineup and playing the guys who are most talented and thus most likely to succeed over longer periods of time. And any time you tip that balance one way or the other, you risk real problems (either you play a hot hand too long and he gets cold, or your lineup suffers because you refuse to rest a starter that's struggling). Cox is doing the right thing, getting Kelly a couple days of rest but certainly not taking away his starting job.


actually, there was a few people arguing to remove Schafer after the one game. That comment was not directed at you so I'm not sure why you felt the need to reply to me on it. Maybe you just took interest, I don't know. I understand about sample size. I just disagree with it. The problem with your argument is that you're attempting to use statistics to project what a player will do over the course of an entire season. Right now, the Braves just need to put a player in the leadoff spot that can get on. That's obviously not KJ and it became even more evident when the loyal Cox removed him from the spot. It's about right now, not at the end of the season. That's why sample size is useless in this situation. You go with the hot hitter. Right now, that's Omar Infante.

I don't doubt that KJ will turn things around. He's definitey better than a .200 hitter. The fact remains though that he's incredibly streaky. When he's on, you can't get him out, when he's not, he's garbage. Right now, he's garbage.

I think maybe you're confused about something. As you know, I'm not a big fan of Kelly Johnson. I'm not for putting KJ on the bench and starting Infante. I'm for using Johnson as trade bait, allowing Infante a chance to fill the role, and bring in some power to Atlanta.

rtgthree
05-04-2009, 08:21 PM
actually Cox didn't leave it up to him. It's in GA's contract that it be left up to him. Here's my deal with it, you don't see other players refusing to take minor league assignments after an injury.
The announcers on Peachtree TV just cleared this up quite nicely. According to Chip Caray and Joe Simpson, Bobby Cox gives all his veterans the choice to rehab or not. Anderson was given the option, and decided that he didn't need the rehab time, preferring to return to the major-league lineup sooner rather than later. Sounds like it's no big deal.

actually, there was a few people arguing to remove Schafer after the one game. That comment was not directed at you so I'm not sure why you felt the need to reply to me on it.
And the rule that I can only speak when spoken to is...where?

I understand about sample size. I just disagree with it.
Uh, on what grounds? Sample size is a pretty basic, pretty indisputable statistical concept. I mean take the simplest example: if you try to predict which way a flipped coin will land in one flip, you'll be right 50% of the time. But if you try to predict which way the coin will land flipping it 100 times, you can be a lot more accurate: over more and more flips, it will likely get closer and closer to 50/50 heads/tails. You can be a ton more precise predicting over a large sample size. I'm not even sure that's something you CAN disagree with.

The problem with your argument is that you're attempting to use statistics to project what a player will do over the course of an entire season.
Right, because predicting one coin flip is blind luck. Predicting 1000 coin flips is much, much easier. Predicting a player's performance in one game is blind luck. Predicting over 162 games is far more precise.

Right now, the Braves just need to put a player in the leadoff spot that can get on. That's obviously not KJ and it became even more evident when the loyal Cox removed him from the spot.
And "loyal Cox" has KJ back in the leadoff spot today. What exactly is your conclusion here?

It's about right now, not at the end of the season. That's why sample size is useless in this situation. You go with the hot hitter. Right now, that's Omar Infante.
Yeah, but by this logic, David Ross would continue to catch even after Brian McCann returns from the DL. Go with the hot hand, right? Why pull Ross out of the lineup when he's hot? Obviously I'm caricaturing to make a point, namely, that there's a balance between playing the hot hand and playing the more talented hand and counting on talent to shine in the long run.

I think maybe you're confused about something. As you know, I'm not a big fan of Kelly Johnson. I'm not for putting KJ on the bench and starting Infante. I'm for using Johnson as trade bait, allowing Infante a chance to fill the role, and bring in some power to Atlanta.
Using Johnson as trade bait is knee-jerk, short-sighted reactionism. It's the definition of being frustrated with Johnson's current slump and wanting to get rid of him. That makes no sense. Replacing Johnson's .800-ish OPS with Infante's .750-ish OPS...where does that start to be a good idea? You might try to argue that we will bring in a power bat for left field. But who would we bring in exactly? To begin with, teams don't trade in May. For another thing, the Cardinals wouldn't even give us Ryan Ludwick for Johnson (and Ludwick isn't exactly a sure bet himself)...who are we going to get that really would make a difference?

CrippledRam
05-04-2009, 08:46 PM
possibly OFer i would trade for maybe: Cuddyer, or Kubel.
The twins OF is crowded with gomez, cuddyer, span, kubel, and delmon young...they could trade one. And their 2nd baseman doesnt provide much for them.
Athletics have Travis buck and Jack Cust..and could use a 2nd baseman b/c ellis is always injured and crosby hits under 240.

Kubel can't play of. Full-time DH

rtgthree
05-04-2009, 11:07 PM
^^^Agreed. Of the four guys mentioned in this thread, the only one I would want is Luke Scott. He's a solid hitter and fielder, and Matt Diaz would give him the platoon partner he badly needs. Aubrey Huff had a total fluke year in 2008, and his "versatility" is only an illusion because he's a poor defender no matter where he plays. Kubel can't play defense either, and doesn't hit much better than your average fourth outfielder anyway. Michael Cuddyer doesn't impress me either...he's always struggled to be just average as a hitter in the outfield.

Trading for a mediocre guy like Huff or Cuddyer is a waste of the Braves' time. Either they need to get a real difference maker, or they need to just hold on to their prospects.

SilverAndBlue
05-04-2009, 11:22 PM
Right, because predicting one coin flip is blind luck. Predicting 1000 coin flips is much, much easier. Predicting a player's performance in one game is blind luck. Predicting over 162 games is far more precise.

And "loyal Cox" has KJ back in the leadoff spot today. What exactly is your conclusion here?

Yeah, but by this logic, David Ross would continue to catch even after Brian McCann returns from the DL. Go with the hot hand, right? Why pull Ross out of the lineup when he's hot? Obviously I'm caricaturing to make a point, namely, that there's a balance between playing the hot hand and playing the more talented hand and counting on talent to shine in the long run.

Using Johnson as trade bait is knee-jerk, short-sighted reactionism. It's the definition of being frustrated with Johnson's current slump and wanting to get rid of him. That makes no sense. Replacing Johnson's .800-ish OPS with Infante's .750-ish OPS...where does that start to be a good idea? You might try to argue that we will bring in a power bat for left field. But who would we bring in exactly? To begin with, teams don't trade in May. For another thing, the Cardinals wouldn't even give us Ryan Ludwick for Johnson (and Ludwick isn't exactly a sure bet himself)...who are we going to get that really would make a difference?

**we're not talking about coins. we're talking about baseball.

**My conclusion is that Cox is hoping the time off will get KJ turned around.

**no my logic wouldn't say that Ross would start. The difference in the situation with McCann and Ross is that McCann is essentially injured. KJ is not. He's just sucking right now.

**trading Johnson isn't a knee-jerk short sighted reaction. You like to discount it because you have more faith in Johnson than do I. I've made it pretty clear I don't think KJ is a worthy starter for the Braves and that I even think Martin Prado could do a better job if given the chance. On it being shortsighted, you just don't know what you're talking about. KJ will be a free agent in 2012. He's already arbitration up until that time meaning his salary will likely continue to escalate. Why not either use Infante, who is also signed through 2012 or either the much cheaper Martin Prado and save that money to spend on a bat. So shortsighted, maybe you should do your homework before you start throwing those kind of comments out. A trade using KJ could benefit the Braves right now and in the future if they could acquire a power hitting RH bat.

AustinTheGreat
05-04-2009, 11:42 PM
**** u guys are right. I dont know why im thinking of getting these mediocre players. Maybe cuz i dont want to give away our pitchers that im likeing so much. To be honest i think this team cant compete unless we have a player in his prime in left field. We have none or one batter in his prime. Mccann. but he still can get better and hes injured. The rest are either over the hill declining (chipper, GA, and kotchman) or they arent developed all the way yet ( escobar, schafer, frenchy). Or in my eyes players that have reached their peak of average and i dont see signs of improvement KJ and diaz. KJ could be a great supporting player but in this offense we count on him too much. To balance out this young and old players we need a LF in his prime to be a .300 type hitter and be a threat with power. And the only way to get that is to trade an ace. I love Vazquez but i dont see braves trading lowe, or JJ...and vazquez would be the biggest chip to sell....sucks we finally get pitching and now i have to suggest tradding a strikeout wizard for offense. I think Vazquez plus players can land a great LF.

nps6724
05-04-2009, 11:59 PM
**** u guys are right. I dont know why im thinking of getting these mediocre players. Maybe cuz i dont want to give away our pitchers that im likeing so much. To be honest i think this team cant compete unless we have a player in his prime in left field. We have none or one batter in his prime. Mccann. but he still can get better and hes injured. The rest are either over the hill declining (chipper, GA, and kotchman) or they arent developed all the way yet ( escobar, schafer, frenchy). Or in my eyes players that have reached their peak of average and i dont see signs of improvement KJ and diaz. KJ could be a great supporting player but in this offense we count on him too much. To balance out this young and old players we need a LF in his prime to be a .300 type hitter and be a threat with power. And the only way to get that is to trade an ace. I love Vazquez but i dont see braves trading lowe, or JJ...and vazquez would be the biggest chip to sell....sucks we finally get pitching and now i have to suggest tradding a strikeout wizard for offense. I think Vazquez plus players can land a great LF.

What amazes me is how the Braves can't develop good young hitters at all. Besides Chipper and McCann and Furcal, who else have we developed who has been a good hitter in the past 20 years? Andruw, besides 1 year, did nothing but swing for the fence. Frenchy has been a complete enigma (good power in 2005 and 2006, good BA in 2007, nothing in 2008, sorta all-around in 2009 so far). 3 players in 20 years who were guys you could legitimately say was a top 5 hitter at his position. I guess all those years as contenders kept us from ever developing anyone because we didn't develop any pitchers in that span either besides Millwood and of course Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery. Pretty much all of our key players for the past decade+ were either rentals or the guys like Smoltz and Chip who had already been around for awhile.

AustinTheGreat
05-05-2009, 12:20 AM
You may be right above...

Lets think of this though (nothing to do with our farm) but what if we had a Matt Holiday like player in LF. Are we having this conversation??
KJ
Escobar
chipper
Holiday
mccann
frenchy
Kotchman
shafer

That way Shafer is not relied on and he can struggle and grow as a hitter by him being a rookie.
KJ instead of being so depended on can be his usual steak .260-.270 hitter with decent homers
Kotchman is a vetern smart hitter that is mostly limited to singles and clearing any left over people on base.
Mccann and frenchy go to the midlineup where their production is not the main production but second tire b/c of holiday.

We are looking at players saying they are the problem but i think the lack of power, star, prime player is the problem and he could play LF. Do i think this could happen??? i doubt it b/c wren and bobby think GA could do it and IMO i disagree..too old and hes just another poor mans chipper. In order to get a player of the calibur im talking about we'd have to give up Vazquez probably. I love vazquez, love his Ks and have wanted a player like him but i dont see braves trading lowe, jj or KK and vazquez is the best trading chip. Any agree?

nps6724
05-05-2009, 12:22 AM
Well yeah, but name 1 decent team whose lineup isn't instantly better and credible with a guy like Holliday batting 4th. That's not much of a revelation.

AustinTheGreat
05-05-2009, 12:29 AM
Well yeah, but name 1 decent team whose lineup isn't instantly better and credible with a guy like Holliday batting 4th. That's not much of a revelation.

Its relevant b/c this lineup is doomed to fail. Theres no way it can succeed. THe only way our offense can be good enough to be a threat in the divison or wild card is if everyone plays their absolute best.

GA gets healthy and hits near .300 with around 15+ homers and keep diaz out of the lineup b/c hes not a threat
Chipper finds his power again..he had his worst year is extra base hits last year
Kotchman finds his power that is yet to be seen
KJ finds consistantcy and hits near 17 homers with .280 avg.
Frenchy hits like .280 with 20+ homers
Mccann stays healthy and has allstar year
escobar has to step up and be a .300 + hitter like renteria
Schafer near the bottom of the lineup needs to have a decent .250 avg with like 10 homers and mayb some steals...

all this i think would need to happen for this offense to succeed....is this possible??? I doubt it b/c Chipper cant play everday...neither can GA..

This is relevant b/c we need another player in the lineup.

rtgthree
05-05-2009, 11:36 AM
**we're not talking about coins. we're talking about baseball.
Oh, right. Thanks for the reminder. The coin example was only an illustration, because the statistical concept is the same, whether you're talking about baseball or coins. Predicting results over a large sample size is much more precise than predicting over a small one. Like I said, that's not really disputable.

**no my logic wouldn't say that Ross would start. The difference in the situation with McCann and Ross is that McCann is essentially injured. KJ is not. He's just sucking right now.
Dude, are you reading what I write? I know you aren't saying that; hence the "Obviously I'm caricaturing to make a point..." Anyway, how is KJ ever going to stop sucking if he doesn't ever play? His bad luck can't turn into neutral luck if he's on the bench. If he plays, his luck WILL turn around...that's inevitable.


I've made it pretty clear I don't think KJ is a worthy starter for the Braves and that I even think Martin Prado could do a better job if given the chance.
You've made it clear that you think that. What you haven't done is make any kind of objective case for why it's true.

On it being shortsighted, you just don't know what you're talking about. KJ will be a free agent in 2012. He's already arbitration up until that time meaning his salary will likely continue to escalate. Why not either use Infante, who is also signed through 2012 or either the much cheaper Martin Prado and save that money to spend on a bat. So shortsighted, maybe you should do your homework before you start throwing those kind of comments out. A trade using KJ could benefit the Braves right now and in the future if they could acquire a power hitting RH bat.
Dude, the last thing you want to do is accuse me of "not doing my homework." I know when Johnson will be a free agent. Using Prado or Infante is replacing a superior player with an inferior player. Infante's .755 OPS last year is barely above-average. If you gave Prado's ridiculous good luck to Johnson, KJ would be hitting like Chase Utley...so it's hard to say what Prado's production would look like. Granted, Prado's small-sample production this season shows some striking improvement: his walk rate is way up, and his BABIP is back to normal with no loss in batting average. His power, which looked fluky last year, remains. The Braves need to make sure he plays to see if all that's for real; I suspect it's not, but it could be. Either way, it's not safe to trade an established regular like Johnson without having a bigger sample on Prado.

But here's the homework YOU need to do: tell me what precedent there is for teams making big trades in May, and tell me what significant RH power bat we could get in return for Kelly Johnson, who wasn't even enough to get us Ryan Ludwick.

And the only way to get that is to trade an ace. I love Vazquez but i dont see braves trading lowe, or JJ...and vazquez would be the biggest chip to sell....sucks we finally get pitching and now i have to suggest tradding a strikeout wizard for offense. I think Vazquez plus players can land a great LF.
No, no, please no. All season we begged and pleaded for Frank Wren to get us some reliable starting pitching. He went out and did that, and now you want to start giving it away? That is NOT the solution.

Lets think of this though (nothing to do with our farm) but what if we had a Matt Holiday like player in LF.
Then we'd be making a huge mistake. Go look at Holliday's home/road splits and think again how much you want him. He's Albert Pujols at Coors and far more pedestrian everywhere else. The A's are learning that lesson the hard way...let's hope the Braves don't think they can get different results from the same experiment.

runningcircles
05-05-2009, 11:55 AM
RTG, thanks for giving me the stats I was talking about earlier. I was absolutely SHOCKED to see that KJ's average was that high in the leadoff spot, because it seemed as if he's ALWAYS struggled when hitting first in the order. In actuality, his numbers there are nowhere near as low as I guessed they would be, especially when you figure in the downright awful numbers he's had over his last 50, or so, at bats of this season. I'm also shocked that Chipper's stats are only marginally better with Teixeira hitting behind him, than they are without having him there. I guess I have a secondary question to go along with that. I'm assuming you're figuring in Chipper's stats for his entire career, which it makes it much easier to understand, because he's been such a great hitter for such a long time, and has actually had some solid cleanup hitters hitting behind him over the course of his career. I'm going to have to run the stats, because I'm interested in seeing Chipper's stats with Teixeira hitting behind him, and now his stats AFTER Teixeira left the team. I know it's hard to use such a small sample size (less than a full year) when you're talking about a guy with 15 years in the league, but I'm still interested, nonetheless, because it just feels like he was always on base when Tex was here, and now it feels very much quite the opposite!

After watching a few more games, I've given up on the idea of force feeding JS into the leadoff spot. It's not like we're getting the wrong guys to the plate when we've got runners on base, we don't ever even have runners on base when ANYBODY comes to the plate, so until SOMEBODY starts hitting a little smarter, and a little more like a major league baseball player, it's probably beyond IRRELEVANT where everybody in the lineup hits. Makes it much easier (and more enjoyable, when losing like this) to watch when my expectations are much lower to begin with, and I'm just watching to see our young players evolve their game and, hopefully, begin to blend together as a team.

baseballislife7
05-05-2009, 11:57 AM
If KJ was a little more consistent it would be great. I believe they need to look at the tape and see what he does against LHP b/c he hits so much better against lefties. I know its a timing thing they need to figure out. Sitting him against LHP isn't going to help him. Last night 0-3 I have always hated the idea of him as leadoff. I love him batting 7th. I have been one for Schafer. The only thing about Atlanta's offense is even if you have a fast man on base, if they don't stealy 2nd, Yunel is a double play waiting to happen. I thinkk Kotchman would make a good lead off or two hitter and move guys accordingly. He was used w/the Angels as a #2 hitter and you know Figgins on base a lot he had to be used in hit and runs. Kotchman isn't a 4,5 batter. No power. I think you could switch KJ and Kotchman, and make more people happy. Although I believe he would be a great #2 and I know people are going to start bashing me, but why not let Kotchman lead off. He is a singles and doubles hitter, doesn't strike out much, high avg & on base %, I know he is lacking the speed, but so is he on the power. Put KJ in the 5/6 hole, w/Frenchy in the clean up until BMac comes back. Frenchy had one game in the clean up spot and went 2-4, HR and 3 RBI.

runningcircles
05-05-2009, 12:05 PM
Question. Speaking of our offensive woes, does anybody else feel that when the ENTIRE lineup is struggling up and down, as it is right now, there should be a little more blame thrown on Terry Pendleton? I mean, I understand that coaches don't go out there and hit the ball, but they should be in the players' ears at all times, and should be able to assist the guys at making the necessary adjustments, based on how they're being pitched. I have ALWAYS felt as if TP's lineups consistently go through stretches where the entire lineup is very hot, or the entire lineup is very cold, not something that usually resembles winning teams over the course of 162 game seasons.

Not to mention, under the study of TP, two of our playes, AJ and JF have had seasons where they all but fell apart at the plate. Frenchy actually went and saw the hitting coach for the Rangers, who seems to have just made some small adjustments that have helped him mightily at the start of the season, and AJ is now playing part time in Texas, where he was hitting over .340 with 3 bombs as of Sunday evening, a far cry from his last couple of years in Atlanta and last year in LA.

As for JF, shouldn't it always be your hitting coaches responsibility to make sure you are as fundamentally sound as your stance allows (or change the stance in extreme circumstances) and be able to help making the necessary adjustments to remove the holes that pitchers always find in hitters' swings.

nps6724
05-05-2009, 12:08 PM
I like the idea of Kotch batting 2nd and I wouldn't mind seeing this lineup:

KJ
Kotch
Chip
Mac
Frenchy
Esco
Diaz/GA
Schafer
Pitcher

Then when Schaferi s ready to leadoff:

Schafer
Kotch
Chip
Mac
Frenchy
KJ
Diaz/GA
Esco
Pitcher

Kotch actually leads the team in XBH with 9 (Frenchy has 8), he sees 3.75 pitches per PA compared to Esco seeing 3.03, he's hit into fewer DPs than Esco (5 to 2), his BA and OBP are almost the exact same as Esco's, but Esco is driving in more runs. Kotch is a waste batting 4/5 and neither guy has much speed so you aren't sacrificing that. I think we could actually do decent with that setup.

nps6724
05-05-2009, 12:25 PM
Question. Speaking of our offensive woes, does anybody else feel that when the ENTIRE lineup is struggling up and down, as it is right now, there should be a little more blame thrown on Terry Pendleton? I mean, I understand that coaches don't go out there and hit the ball, but they should be in the players' ears at all times, and should be able to assist the guys at making the necessary adjustments, based on how they're being pitched. I have ALWAYS felt as if TP's lineups consistently go through stretches where the entire lineup is very hot, or the entire lineup is very cold, not something that usually resembles winning teams over the course of 162 game seasons.

Not to mention, under the study of TP, two of our playes, AJ and JF have had seasons where they all but fell apart at the plate. Frenchy actually went and saw the hitting coach for the Rangers, who seems to have just made some small adjustments that have helped him mightily at the start of the season, and AJ is now playing part time in Texas, where he was hitting over .340 with 3 bombs as of Sunday evening, a far cry from his last couple of years in Atlanta and last year in LA.

As for JF, shouldn't it always be your hitting coaches responsibility to make sure you are as fundamentally sound as your stance allows (or change the stance in extreme circumstances) and be able to help making the necessary adjustments to remove the holes that pitchers always find in hitters' swings.

1) Our offense this year wasn't expected to do well anyway so them struggling is more of a talent issue IMO.

2) The HC can only do so much. Each player has their own idea of what they want to do. Last year, JF wanted to be a power hitter so he tried to do that. There's nothing TP could've done IMO to fix him because it was JF who wasn't listening. As for AJ, let's remember this is his 1st time in the AL so the changing of leagues could be aiding his fast start. But he never changed as a hitter through 12 years with several different HCs (Baylor, Rettemund, TP, whoever the Dodgers had last year).

I don't think TP is a great HC (let's remember this is his first foray into coaching), but a lot of it has to do with the talent he's given. I haven't seen a ton of talent offensively on this team in a while.

bigmj
05-05-2009, 12:50 PM
Quick look at the stats...

Average - 19th (.258)
Hits - 23rd (203)
Runs and Rbi's - 25th (98, 92)
Home Runs - 25th (19)
Walks - 7th (101 - led by Schafers 18)
GDP - 7th (22 - led by Frenchy and Escobar 5 each)
OBP - 12th (.346)
SLG - 20th (.405)
OPS - 17th (.752)
3B - 7th (5)
SB - 30th (4)


These stats show a team that has no power, but yet we continue to sit around and wait for the three run homer, a shot that never comes.
This team needs to learn to manufacture runs and get aggressive on the basepaths. More 3B than SB is pathetic.

This is a .500 team at best, and once again we are staring mediocrity in the face.
But don't blame FW who was happy with our current outfield rotation and saw no need to upgrade.

We need major help in LF, 2B, 1B, and cather if the glasses don't work.

The talent level on this team is below average, and the reserves (minor leagues) has all but dried up.

And don't get me started on middle relief :(

baseballislife7
05-05-2009, 01:05 PM
We do need to do the little things a little better. The one game we try hit and run and we score like three runs of Adam W. We were doing the little things in like three innings and scoring runs. We haven't tried it before or since then. We need to force our hitters to hit the ball with runners moving. No straight steals b/c we don't have the speed, that or get a runner on and bunt them over. I believe hit and run is also a way to get hitters out of slumps b/c they are only thinking of hitting the ball, plus it gets the defense moving. Put pressure on the opposing team and good things can happen.

AustinTheGreat
05-05-2009, 04:40 PM
"No, no, please no. All season we begged and pleaded for Frank Wren to get us some reliable starting pitching. He went out and did that, and now you want to start giving it away? That is NOT the solution."

I know iknow we begged for pitching and he delivered some great pitchers. But if we dont get some offense then those pitchers are for nothing. We cant win a World Series with this lineup, who are we kidding? I dont want to trade him at all b/c i think hes mayb our best pitcher with his Ks. But our offense is disastrous and if we have depth Hudson at the end of year and next year maybe he takes pay cut, and hansen..We dont have room for all these pitchers. I think matt holiday would do great at turner field. Look at the As stadium, its HUGE. Its a big pitchers park. Turner is medium. I think he would be a .300 30 homer type player at turner.

AustinTheGreat
05-05-2009, 04:46 PM
Quick look at the stats...

Average - 19th (.258)
Hits - 23rd (203)
Runs and Rbi's - 25th (98, 92)
Home Runs - 25th (19)
Walks - 7th (101 - led by Schafers 18)
GDP - 7th (22 - led by Frenchy and Escobar 5 each)
OBP - 12th (.346)
SLG - 20th (.405)
OPS - 17th (.752)
3B - 7th (5)
SB - 30th (4)


These stats show a team that has no power, but yet we continue to sit around and wait for the three run homer, a shot that never comes.
This team needs to learn to manufacture runs and get aggressive on the basepaths. More 3B than SB is pathetic.

This is a .500 team at best, and once again we are staring mediocrity in the face.
But don't blame FW who was happy with our current outfield rotation and saw no need to upgrade.

We need major help in LF, 2B, 1B, and cather if the glasses don't work.

The talent level on this team is below average, and the reserves (minor leagues) has all but dried up.

And don't get me started on middle relief :(


THANK YOU. i agree completely. I have some doubts about the coaching too. We wait for the homerun like u said b/c we use to be that team. Get a runner or two on and then hit a homer but now we have noone to hit that homer. So what bobby should do is put pressure on teams and try to steal..does he do that? no..Bobby is way to concerative and doesnt risk stealing yet our team isnt good enough just to hit and hit till we score. Josh anderson should be happy hes in Detroit theres no way he would have that many SB in ATL. Chippers power has diminished and we have no andruw or Tex. So that Homer never comes. Power hitting star LF is a glaring need. To solve one point of the middle relief i thiink we can switch KK to long reliever and spot starter and bring up hanson.

rtgthree
05-05-2009, 04:51 PM
I know iknow we begged for pitching and he delivered some great pitchers. But if we dont get some offense then those pitchers are for nothing. We cant win a World Series with this lineup, who are we kidding? I dont want to trade him at all b/c i think hes mayb our best pitcher with his Ks. But our offense is disastrous and if we have depth Hudson at the end of year and next year maybe he takes pay cut, and hansen..We dont have room for all these pitchers. I think matt holiday would do great at turner field. Look at the As stadium, its HUGE. Its a big pitchers park. Turner is medium. I think he would be a .300 30 homer type player at turner.

The solution is that we need to find offense without giving up the core of our pitching staff. And that's 100% possible. Get some improvement from the guys we already have (McCann as he gets his vision back, Johnson as his luck normalizes, Schafer as he adjusts to the big-league game, Francoeur as he really internalizes his new approach). Get an infusion of help from the farm: Gorkys Hernandez will be ready to go next year and Jason Heyward may not be far behind him. Then go get a bat either via free agency or by trading with pieces not named Jurrjens, Vazquez and Lowe. Tim Hudson isn't taking a pay cut, so don't even entertain that possibility. Pitching wins...Braves fans should know that. It's in our interests to keep the quartet of Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens and Hudson. Tack Hanson on the end and improve the offense as much as possible with the rest of the money and talent.

Dude, did you actually go look at Holliday's splits? At Coors, he's Pujols. Everywhere else (and I mean EVERYWHERE, not just the A's stadium), he's closer to Shane Victorino. Victorino's good, don't get me wrong, but Holliday will cost WAY more than the Flyin' Hawaiian. Acquiring Holliday would be a mistake.

AustinTheGreat
05-05-2009, 05:13 PM
The solution is that we need to find offense without giving up the core of our pitching staff. And that's 100% possible. Get some improvement from the guys we already have (McCann as he gets his vision back, Johnson as his luck normalizes, Schafer as he adjusts to the big-league game, Francoeur as he really internalizes his new approach). Get an infusion of help from the farm: Gorkys Hernandez will be ready to go next year and Jason Heyward may not be far behind him. Then go get a bat either via free agency or by trading with pieces not named Jurrjens, Vazquez and Lowe. Tim Hudson isn't taking a pay cut, so don't even entertain that possibility. Pitching wins...Braves fans should know that. It's in our interests to keep the quartet of Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens and Hudson. Tack Hanson on the end and improve the offense as much as possible with the rest of the money and talent.

Dude, did you actually go look at Holliday's splits? At Coors, he's Pujols. Everywhere else (and I mean EVERYWHERE, not just the A's stadium), he's closer to Shane Victorino. Victorino's good, don't get me wrong, but Holliday will cost WAY more than the Flyin' Hawaiian. Acquiring Holliday would be a mistake.

Matt Holiday was simply just a example by the way. I didnt tell you that but i said it in another trade. A Matt holiday like player. A player that can hit in the .300 area and produce runs with like 30 homers+. It doesnt have to be holiday.
He was just an example.

That makes sense what you wrote and i would agree with that but thats also just throwing in the towel for this year. See im thinking of it like win now. Chipper is not getting any younger and by the time all these young players are developed he will be retired.

baseballislife7
05-06-2009, 11:09 AM
What left fielder would you guys want, w/Heyward coming soon? There isn't many of them out there. Not that I would want anyway. I was hoping when we didn't get Dunn we would go with Jones/Diaz platoon. I hope GA starts hitting. If he could become anything like he was last year that would be a + right now. I'm rooting for him b/c we need him.

Thibs34
05-06-2009, 09:53 PM
Infante should be giving Schafer some days off and Johnson SHOULD be in the game. Kelly has proved again this year what he proved last year. He is not a leadoff hitter. That doesn't mean he should be taken out of the lineup. He has shown he can hit in the 6 or 7 hole consistently. Why he is not getting that chance to do that this year is beyond me. Infante is our utility guy(backup CF) and Schafer obviously needs some days off.

baseballislife7
05-12-2009, 10:02 AM
Offense is starting to click. Its amazing though, that BMac comes back and Chipper gets hurt. That is the way it has been going. Line-up still hasn't been together for an extended period of time. I think they are starting to really get it going though, they have scored 4 or more runs every game on this road trip and as I said before give these pitchers 4 or more runs and we are going to win a lot of games.

CrippledRam
05-12-2009, 10:18 AM
# Rosenthal notes the Braves' surplus of quality minor league arms, and suggests they're well-equipped to trade for a bat. The Braves rank 11th in the NL with 4.41 runs scored per game.
# The White Sox's rotation is looking a bit shaky given the ineffectiveness of Jose Contreras. Rosenthal says "the team eventually figures to be in the market for a starter." The Sox are hanging in there at 3.5 games out with a 14-17 record.

mlbtr

Jo-Jo and pieces for Dye and cash? Dunno just throwing it out there...Does Kenny think JoJo has "it"?

rtgthree
05-12-2009, 10:40 AM
^^^I kind of doubt that we'd have the money to bring in Dye, but do look for the Braves to move some of their young pitchers for a bat if we remain in contention.

nps6724
05-12-2009, 10:44 AM
Dye's having a pretty good season thus far. He's played in 29 games already and has 10 XBH and 17 RBI, both 3rd on the team. But he's not hitting lefties at all and as a RH bat, he needs to. Especially with GA being a LH hitter. OTOH, thus far GA isn't hitting against righties well but he's been hurt.

I don't see exactly where Dye fits. We already have Diaz and GA and Dye isn't a major upgrade over their production except for power. The combo of GA and Diaz have matched Dye's RBI total and his XBH total. Even if we got him, he'd be in a platoon with GA. We need to get a full-time starter if we're going to make a change.