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View Full Version : Kevin Pelton on Wade's Streak (Good Statistical Insight)



Chronz
03-17-2009, 11:06 PM
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=592

March 13, 2009
Heating Up
Dwayne Wade Carries Miami
by Kevin Pelton

Compare Wade's advanced statistics over this stretch to what he has accomplished over the course of the season:

Win% ORtg DRtg TS% Usg Ast% 2P% 3P%
Season .806 114.4 103.3 .575 .358 12.1 .527 .314
Last 12 .928 123.1 102.6 .667 .356 9.3 .594 .431


There was no particular sign Wade was about to go off. In fact, his play before the All-Star break was down from what Wade he had done over the rest of the first half of the season. So why the abrupt change? One obvious explanation is the trade the Heat made just prior to the All-Star break, sending Shawn Marion (and Marcus Banks) to Toronto in exchange for Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon. O'Neal and Moon made their Miami debuts when play resumed after the break.

Unfortunately, the most recent update covers just the first six games after the All-Star break, but the numbers are still revealing. Wade and O'Neal played 167 minutes together in that span, with Wade shooting a sizzling 58.3 percent from the field. By deduction, we can find that Wade shot an even 50.0 percent in those six games when O'Neal was on the bench, more in line with his shooting percentage over the course of the season.

Why would O'Neal's presence have such a positive impact on Wade's performance? Even though he is no longer the go-to guy in the post that he once was, averaging 12.3 points per game, O'Neal still commands the respect of opposing defenses. The same certainly cannot be said of Joel Anthony, the shot-blocking specialist who started 28 games at center for the Heat prior to O'Neal's arrival. Anthony is one of the league's worst offensive players; just three other NBA regulars use a smaller percentage of their team's possessions than Anthony's 8.0 usage rate.

The Heat has allowed 115.9 points per 100 possessions, up from 107.2 over the first 52 games. That's enough to drop Miami from the league's top 10 in defense all the way to the cellar.
On paper, this makes little sense. O'Neal is a good interior defender who continues to block shots at a rate of nearly two per game. Indeed, the Heat's defense has been only slightly worse (1.5 points per 100 possessions) this season with O'Neal on the court. The plus-minus data fingers Moon as the culprit, with Miami allowing a Defensive Rating 4.4 points higher when he is in the lineup. Oddly, Moon's plus-minus numbers were consistently strong in Toronto, and the Raptors allowed 8.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with Moon.

If the Heat can get on the same page defensively while retaining much of the improved offense, the Hawks--currently a game and a half ahead in the standings--are certainly within reach. If Miami does that, Wade will certainly be a popular candidate in the MVP discussion, a notion backed up by the numbers. James has led the league in WARP since early in the season, but suddenly Wade has pulled nearly alongside him



I tried to clip out most of it as to not enrage the Mods so click on the link for the full details. But it does portray the idea that Oneal has played a crucial role in opening up driving lanes for Wade and that Moon's defense has been underwhelming to start his Heat career. Which is odd considering all the trash Raptor fans were talkin in regards to Moon's offense, hes actually been very efficient for the Heat on that end.

It turns out Marion was a far more important defensive player than Oneal, but the payoff offensively seems to have braught out the best in Wade and the Heat are a better team for it. Its still too early to say with any certainty but Im not expecting Miami to defend this poorly the rest of the year.

Derick713
03-17-2009, 11:31 PM
Obviously the more talent the Heat acquires the easier it will be on Wade to display his full ability.

Dwayne Wade had the hardest situation of all the MVP candidates. Starting the season the Heat didn't make a major addition and they lost their only free agent signing for the early part of the year. Their starting center Joel Anthony was a UN drafted free agent. Dorell Wright was injured and Daequan Cook wasn't a sure thing. Marcus Banks didn't even earn a spot in the rotation and Shawn Marion wasn't good enough on offensive to take pressure of Wade.

The Heat needs to package Blount and another to player to get a legit a center and a scoring small forward. The Heat canít let Wade carry this team at this level because it will only shorten his career so I think the Heat will find another scoring option this summer via trade.

This was a starting line-up of the Heat-

Mario Chalmers-Rookie-2nd Rounder
Dwayne Wade-Elite Player
Yakhouba Diawara-Undrafted Free Agent
Udonis Haslem-Undrafted Free Agent
Joel Anthony-Undrafted Free Agent

Ethix11
03-17-2009, 11:33 PM
Moon produces as much offense as Marion did in our system but not as good defense. Oneal picks up some of the defensive slack by clogging up the lane and the offense is a plus with him as an extra option. This extra option is what has helped Wade not get doubled as much as he did in the past. He spreads the floor well for Wade but they're still working on it. This trade was a plus overall and i do believe the Heat will improve defensively but Moon has to help out as much as he did for the Raps on that end of the floor. I wish we could of started the season with this lineup.

Derick713
03-17-2009, 11:35 PM
I think some people would've liked to see the Heat go after Brad Miller and John Salmons instead of Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon. I only say that because the Heat might not be able to retain Moon during the off-season. John Salmons has a good contract and can take pressure of Wade.

Chronz
03-18-2009, 02:36 AM
I think some people would've liked to see the Heat go after Brad Miller and John Salmons instead of Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon. I only say that because the Heat might not be able to retain Moon during the off-season. John Salmons has a good contract and can take pressure of Wade.
Yeah that wouldve helped alot offensively Brad and Salmons wouldve fit perfectly.

DerekRE_3
03-18-2009, 02:49 AM
Yeah that wouldve helped alot offensively Brad and Salmons wouldve fit perfectly.

Funny, I proposed a Salmons/Miller for Marion and a pick awhile ago, I thought it would have been good for both teams. Kings get a big expiring, and the Heat get some talent around Wade.

Chalmers
Wade
Salmons
Haslem
Miller
6th man: Beasley

Not bad at all, especially with the way Wade is playing. That's a 4 seed in the East right there.