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View Full Version : When LeBron hits his 3's, the Cavs win



jetsfan28
03-04-2009, 11:40 PM
OK, so after seeing the results of today's game, I decided to look a bit farther into LeBron's 3 point shooting and how it impacts the Cavs. We all know that when LeBron's hitting his jumpers, and especially his 3's, he's unstoppable (see game 6 vs. Detroit), and when he's unstoppable, his team is. But to what degree?

Here's what the Cavs do when LeBron shoots 40% this year:

11/8 vs. Chicago - Win (.571)
11/15 vs. Utah - Win (.429)
11/25 vs. New York - Win (.429)
11/28 vs. Golden State - Win (.750)
12/9 vs. Toronto - Win (.400)
12/21 vs. OKC - Win (.500)
12/28 vs. Miami - Win (.500)
1/2 vs. Chicago - Win (.667)
1/9 vs. Boston - Win (.429)
1/21 vs. Portland - Win (.467)
1/23 vs. Golden State - Win (.400)
1/30 vs. Clippers - Win (.500)
2/3 vs. Toronto - Win (.400)
2/10 vs. Indiana - Loss (.571) - Lost on last second foul
2/20 vs. Milwaukee - Win (.727)
2/24 vs. Memphis - Win (.500)
2/26 vs. Houston - Loss (.400)
2/27 vs. Sacramento - Win (.500)
3/2 vs. Miami - Win (.857)
3/4 vs. Milwaukee - Win (.800)


Now, I may have made a mistake. If so, I'm sorry. If not, the Cavs are 18-2 (.900) when LeBron shoots 40% or better from 3. That means when he doesn't, the Cavs are 30-10 (.750). That's a HUGE difference.


So I decided to look back to last year. Last year, they were 13-8 (.619) when he shot 40% or better from 3, 31-23 when he didn't (.574), not counting the 1-6 when he didn't play.


In 2006-2007, 17-7 when he shot 40% from 3 (.708), and one of those losses came when he only took 2 3's, .556 when he didn't, not counting the 3-1 when he didn't play.






Just found it to be interesting. Basically, when he shoots 40% from 3 or better, they are much, much better according to their record. Your thoughts?


Note: I'm aware the fact that he shoots more than 40% of those teams may just be due to weak competition, and it may be a coincidence. Just something I found interesting. Sorry for any errors I may have made.

superkegger
03-04-2009, 11:44 PM
Interesting stuff. I guess it's not all that surprising. I mean, the scouting report would tell you, make him a jumpshooter. So if he's hitting shots, especially 3's, you can't just lay back on him, but if you're guarding him tight on the perimeter, he obviously has the size and speed to either get the step on you or bully by you. So this makes a ton of sense.

Chronz
03-05-2009, 12:10 AM
Good stuff man, his 3pt shooting has been hot since the start of Feb, maybe a sign of him improving, good sign for the Cavs.

Joshtd1
03-05-2009, 12:17 AM
Nice research. If hes on, there is no stopping him.

jetsfan28
03-05-2009, 12:48 AM
Plus, i don't think it's only him that improves when he hits his 3's. If the D has to play a step farther out on him, that's more room for Delonte and Mo to get to the hoop. I think that's why it's more pronounced this year than last year, they have both of those guys all year to capitalize on it.

what54!?
03-05-2009, 12:52 AM
When lebron is on there's no stopping him. If his jumper becomes consistent, its over...

DerekRE_3
03-05-2009, 12:52 AM
Yeah when Lebron is hitting jumpers, he is impossible to guard.

lakersrock
03-05-2009, 01:01 AM
Like I've been saying for two years. When he finally starts hitting his shot, he'll be virtually impossible to defend....thus leading to wins.

sixer04fan
03-05-2009, 01:06 AM
don't the cavs win when he doesn't hit his threes too?

CHief_0_o_Wahoo
03-05-2009, 01:08 AM
That is very interesting.

jetsfan28
03-05-2009, 08:04 AM
don't the cavs win when he doesn't hit his threes too?

Read the post please. I very clearly put their winning percentage when he does and doesn't. For each of the last 3 seasons, they're better when he does.

zipsbgsu
03-05-2009, 08:55 AM
Good stats but this is like saying when Kobe scores over 80 the Lakers win.

BRADY4MVP
03-05-2009, 09:39 AM
good research, but couldnt you kind of use that for many teams/guys??

if pierce/allen goes for 40, celts win

if chris paul gets a triple double, hornets win

etc.

fredv
03-05-2009, 10:49 AM
Houston locked him down! ZERO assists

ottograham14
03-05-2009, 12:36 PM
Houston fan, respect the post and calm down. No one is in here to talk about when there team locked down who and when. It was a great post and good research which seems to be needed more in these forums than people hating on other people and their teams.

lakersrock
03-05-2009, 01:06 PM
To be fair though, he usually hits more of them against bad defensive teams.

Kenny
03-05-2009, 01:21 PM
To be fair though, he usually hits more of them against bad defensive teams.

jeez! Laker fans are so pathetic on this site..

cmstophe
03-05-2009, 03:08 PM
Houston locked him down! ZERO assists

In the second game they played, anyway....

What that has to do with the topic, I dont know.

jetsfan28
03-05-2009, 08:56 PM
good research, but couldnt you kind of use that for many teams/guys??

if pierce/allen goes for 40, celts win

if chris paul gets a triple double, hornets win

etc.

True, but this isn't a volume statistic as much as an efficiency one. But yes, I'm sure there are plenty of statistics like that, this is just the one I happened to notice, because it is a very significant difference.

And yes lr, you are correct, like I said in the first post, the quality of team likely does have something to do with it (although this year, he has shot 40% from 3 in wins against, among others, Utah, Boston, Portland, Toronto twice, and Miami, so not only terrible teams).