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View Full Version : Is it worth $25M to WIN the NL East this yr?



runningcircles
02-27-2009, 11:12 AM
Apparently Manny just rejected the Dodgers latest offer of 2 yr./$45M. Now, I realize we are right at our salary restriction for this season, so this is completely hypothetical, but would it be worth going over by $25M to have Manny Ramirez for this season (and this season only)?

Here's what I'm getting at. It seems Manny is doing all he can to play for the Dodgers for the 4 yr/$100M he wants, or he's not going to play for them at all. In that case, I would assume he would take the highest offer for a ONE YEAR DEAL and then attempt to get the big time contract he obviously feels he deserves next offseason. This year would basically be another contract year for him, making him PRICELESS IMO, because he would have to give all he has to give for an entire season, to prove to the big time spenders next season that his bat in LF alone can get any team to the playoffs. There would be no trying to get out of Boston in order to have them not be able to option his contract for the following year. IMO, he would be the player he was in LA after being traded there, except for the ENTIRE length of the season.

It suits us well as well obviously. First of all, this could be Bobby's last year with the team. Second of all, we still lack the power hitter we need to bat cleanup this season. I just don't think there's any legit way to put a true value on what having Manny protecting Chipper Jones in the lineup, day in and day out, really would be. With our revamped starting rotation, our bullpen, hopefully, finally being at full strength (which makes it one of the toughest in the NL, IMO), and the way the rest of our lineup just seems to blend better if we had a true, power hitting, rbi producing, cleanup hitter to bring it together. I mean, seriously, how many RBI's do you think Manny would have raked up had he batted cleanup for us all of last season? I know things fell apart for our ballclub in the 2nd half of the season, but up until Tex was dealt away, we had 3 or 4 players in the middle of our lineup that were at the TOP of the list when it came to AB's w/RISP. The middle of our lineup struggled, so we also seemed to lead the league in LEAVING RISP, but that is NOT something that would happen with Manny. He would also be an excellent stop gap, as there's a very good chance that Heyward will be ready to play at some point the year after this one.

This doesn't even take into account all the additional revenue a Manny Ramirez signing would bring in. It's not a long term deal, so the team isn't forced to deal with the POSSIBILITY of having an aging, below average LF, making $20M+ in 2 or 3 years. It's basically "no strings attached." Not to mention all of the additional seats (as well as parking, food, beer) that will be sold on account of people wanting to see Manny. There's also the extra income that comes from all of the hats, jerseys, and other merchandise that people all across the NATION will buy because it has the last name "Ramirez" on the back of it, with the tomahawk on the front. It also doesn't take into account the extra revenue automatically brought in if Manny does get this team over the hump and into the playoffs. I'm not saying he will make the value of his contract back in revenue for the club, like he probably would in a place like L.A. with a ONE YEAR DEAL (when you're talking about 3 to 4 years the chances of that decrease significantly), but he would without a doubt generate a good portion of it back, along with giving the club a very good shot at making the postseason, if not giving us a very legit shot at a W.S. Title.

By the way, I realize there is absolutely ZERO chance that this actually happens and that I just wasted ten minutes of my life typing up this post, but I just wanted to point out that if the Dodgers don't lock Manny up long term, I really do think he will take the highest one year offer he can get anywhere BESIDES L.A. and take his chances again next offseason, which, IMO, makes him possibly the most valuable player in a contract season EVER.

runningcircles
02-27-2009, 11:14 AM
Also, before I get blasted out of my own post, I just wanted to get some of the other guy's in this forum's thoughts on whether or not they feel like Manny could be as valuable as I think he could be next season IF he signs a one year deal somewhere besides L.A.

Seamhead
02-27-2009, 11:34 AM
It depends where you have the Braves sitting on the win curve. Going by PECOTA and the CHONE projections, they are right on the sweet spot, where a couple of extra marginal wins are worth a lot. If it's the difference between no playoffs and a playoff berth, then it's worth even more. BPro estimated that a playoff berth is worth around an extra $35 mil (I might be wrong on that -- can't check since I'm at school). So, you could answer this objectively if you wanted to.

Slash
02-27-2009, 11:57 AM
but would it be worth going over by $25M to have Manny Ramirez for this season (and this season only)?

No.

THE_FLASH_21
02-27-2009, 12:35 PM
it is but where the hell is that money gonna come form??? It will be an insult to G.Anderson. He wanted to play at least 100 games... Manny would start instantly...

Chipper
02-27-2009, 02:59 PM
No.

x 2

MrJones
02-27-2009, 03:06 PM
I'd rather "Manny be Manny" somewhere else... there's a reason the Dodgers are the only team interested.

hawksd911
02-27-2009, 04:23 PM
No we just got G Anderson.

jmtapia
02-27-2009, 05:16 PM
No.

GLASSMAN
02-27-2009, 09:01 PM
I'd rather "Manny be Manny" somewhere else... there's a reason the Dodgers are the only team interested.

I agree but the Giants are still somewhat involved according to Boras. I was hoping he'd end up back in the AL but what the heck.

Seamhead
02-27-2009, 09:42 PM
I'd rather "Manny be Manny" somewhere else... there's a reason the Dodgers are the only team interested.

Yes, because he's very bad defensively.

GLASSMAN
02-27-2009, 10:23 PM
Not sure this belongs in this forum but it is interesting/funny/absurd.

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/2009/02/source-boras-as.html

He may need to change his name to Money Ramirez if Boras has his way.

runningcircles
02-28-2009, 01:13 AM
I didn't mean to sound like the most ignorant Braves fan on the planet! In case I did, I realize that we just signed Garrett Anderson. I also realize that we don't have the extra $25M for payroll. Like I said earlier, the whole point of the post was probably a waste of time, because there is absolutely, positively, no doubt that we will NOT be getting into the Manny Ramirez stakes. I guess the point that I was trying to make was completely different from the way it came across.

Let me see if I can get it right (but I'm not going to waste too much more of my or any of yall's time!) this time in explaining what I'm saying. What I'm saying is, that I am of the belief that Manny, for a ONE year contract, could be the single most important signing for just about any club in baseball. I'm saying that if he were to sign a one year contract, he would be PLAYING for a long term contract next off-season. This, IMO, takes away any of the possibility of "Manny being Manny!" I realize he'll still be his quirky old self but I see no way that even he would be dumb enough to pull any of the stunts he pulled that forced Boston (a team in the middle of a playoff hunt, coming off of a WS title, with a legit shot at another one) to trade him at last year's deadline. I'm saying that if he were to sign a one year contract with any club besides LA, that club would be getting the Manny Ramirez that LA had from August 1st on last season, for the entire season this year. That Manny Ramirez would put any "bubble" team over the hump, and make them not only a legit division winning threat, but possibly also a WS contender. I made the example with the Braves, just because that's the only team I care about, and he fills the only true hole we still have in our lineup, but the same could be said for many a team around the majors. He would do the same for the Marlins, Mets, Yanks, Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, D-Rays, Phils, and D-Backs. He's just that good of a player when he's giving his all. The problem with him is when he isn't giving his all, which is more than likely why no team in their right mind wants to lock him up long term!

So I guess what I'm saying is, would THIS Manny Ramirez signing (the one where he signs for just ONE SEASON) be worth a club somehow re-budgeting their payroll to afford the extra money that it would cost to sign him for a single season? Can a G.M. go to his owner(s) and realistically tell them that there's a very good chance that extra payroll will come close to paying for itself in additional revenue for that one single season, not to mention give their team a realistic shot at winning a WS? I think that when you figure in all the additional revenue from just the extra postseason games themselves, not to mention the extra cash brought in from the hype that a signing like him will effect come ticket sales (and everything that goes along with ticket sales, as in parking, food, alcohol) and jersey/hat sales. I really think that Manny at whatever price he brings in (should be somewhere between $20-$25M if he signs anywhere BESIDES LA, because I don't think he'll sign with LA unless they offer him the money he wants, meaning he could have to take a little less over one season w/another club in order to get that big contract next season) over the course of one season (he WON'T pay for himself over a course of a 3 or 4 year contract b/c you can't predict how good he'll be at that time, or how hard he'll play once he's already guaranteed that money) in a place like Atlanta.

Anyway, the whole thing was just a real hypothetical, no shot in hell of happening, question that ran through my mind. Basically, if Manny is giving his all, at the current level of his talent, is he good enough to take a team like the Braves from being a borderline playoff baseball team, to being a favorite for it's division, and having a realistic goal of winning the WS next year? If so I would think it would be worth it for any owner who has winning at the top of his priority list to "find" the additional payroll needed to make the signing.

Slash
02-28-2009, 02:12 AM
Yes, because he's very bad defensively.

He's bad at every aspect of the game except for hitting.

Slash
02-28-2009, 05:48 AM
Here's what I'm getting at. It seems Manny is doing all he can to play for the Dodgers for the 4 yr/$100M he wants, or he's not going to play for them at all. In that case, I would assume he would take the highest offer for a ONE YEAR DEAL and then attempt to get the big time contract he obviously feels he deserves next offseason. This year would basically be another contract year for him, making him PRICELESS IMO, because he would have to give all he has to give for an entire season, to prove to the big time spenders next season that his bat in LF alone can get any team to the playoffs. There would be no trying to get out of Boston in order to have them not be able to option his contract for the following year. IMO, he would be the player he was in LA after being traded there, except for the ENTIRE length of the season.

I think you are missing a few points.

1) Boras and Manny stupidly misread the offseason because they LEFT $40M on the table. Manny was already under contract for another $40 and they walked away.

2) The reason why they stupidly left $40M on the table was that this is probably the last year Manny can sign that 4 or 5 year deal. No one is going to sign him for 4 years a couple years from now. So they stupidly thumbed their nose at $40M in order to get 4 or more years at more than $100M. It isn't going to happen.

3) Since it isn't going to happen, look for him and Boras to try an get the Dodgers to bid against themselves. The Dodgers know that no one else wants him so they will not bid against themselves.

4) Why doesn't any other team want him? Because Manny has shown that he will quit when he thinks $40M for 2 years is unfair.

5) Worse than quitting, Manny will actually tank while playing so that he isn't played while his team in on the playoff bubble. Everyone here knows my opinion on Andruw, but you know what? While he was stubborn and refused to listen to anyone else, at least he didn't quit. He ran his fat *** down the bases as fast as he could. Manny is one of the best hitters in the past 30 years and his own teammates were happy to see him leave. Consider that for a sec.

6) If Manny signs a one year deal this year then he will almost certainly get a one year or two year deal at best next year. That isn't acceptable.

7) By turning down the $25M for one or $45M for two, Boras and Manny have painted themselves into a corner.

8) There is a chance that Manny busts *** for the year. There is the certainty that Manny goes into "Operation 6 sec run to first" if that team isn't in the playoffs so he can force a trade to another team. Think that other team is going to pick up his remaining salary?

9) Boras and Manny have made Manny into a pariah and the quintessential money hungry player that doesn't care about anything else except getting his check.

No team wants or needs that type of player in the clubhouse.

MrJones
02-28-2009, 10:55 AM
I agree but the Giants are still somewhat involved according to Boras. I was hoping he'd end up back in the AL but what the heck.

I doubt there's any serious talks going on between the two.. but then again AJ turned down a chance to play with the Yanks to audition for a job w/ the Rangers...

GLASSMAN
02-28-2009, 01:19 PM
Maybe they're waiting on a signed terms sheet from the Giants to take to Colletti.

Joe Smoe
02-28-2009, 01:53 PM
Maybe they're waiting on a signed terms sheet from the Giants to take to Colletti.

Ouch! lol, But I think your right.


Would Manny make the lineup more deadly? Depends on the Manny your getting. Will he call out due to a hang nail on his pinky? Or make a pitcher more nervous then a cup cake at fat camp.


At this point only one team is bidding for him, and he still has not signed. This shows one of two possible things ...he wants to avoid playing during spring training and will sign shortly afterwards, or he would be willing to not play this year if he does not get what he wants. The man is not a poor and most likely does not need more money....ever. My bet is, he will make the Dodgers swet until after ST then sign shortly afterwards. I dunno I call that lazy, others say it just Manny.

The guy however, if he did truly commit to a team and play the game to his full potential, could make any team way over the money spent. He is a X factor in that lineup. But, you might as well get a few Elephants, and Lions to go with that circus. I dont think Cox likes Lions.

Spiderman 1nner
03-01-2009, 11:22 AM
this thread is dum, braves dont have 25 mil to spend, manny is not coming to the braves