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JackB
02-06-2009, 11:34 PM
Ok we know we need both of these guys to return to form to be able to have any chance at all . What are your UNBIASED projections for both pitchers this year? Now think hard and use your head and NOT your heart. We all want them to pitch well. But you also need to be honest with yourself.
I know I would love to seeboth win 15 games. 180 ks and have ERAs of under 4. Which one will be the better of the two?

drewstantontime
02-07-2009, 01:13 AM
Verlander- 16-8 3.90 ERA 220 K
Bonderman- 15-8 3.90 ERA 200 K
Galaraga- 11-11 4.50 ERA 150 K

JackB
02-07-2009, 09:33 AM
Verlander- 16-8 3.90 ERA 220 K
Bonderman- 15-8 3.90 ERA 200 K
Galaraga- 11-11 4.50 ERA 150 K

This is not the way to start this going. Do you honestly think Verlander and Bonderman are going to K over 200 hitters? Verlander maybe will come close But 200 for Bonderman is way out of line. And so his an under 4.00 ERA. Has he ever had a 4.00 ERA ? I don't believe he has.
You have to be realistic here not optimistic.
We'll count that post as a trial run. Care to try again?

jsneller1985
02-07-2009, 09:52 AM
Verlander: 17-7 3.45 ERA 177 K's
Bonderman: 3-4 5.36 ERA 39 K's (injured early)

Cabrera .313 ba, 30 hr 119 rbi


BREAKOUT TIGER: Brandon Inge .281 ba, 26 hr, 99 rbi

drewstantontime
02-07-2009, 10:05 AM
This is not the way to start this going. Do you honestly think Verlander and Bonderman are going to K over 200 hitters? Verlander maybe will come close But 200 for Bonderman is way out of line. And so his an under 4.00 ERA. Has he ever had a 4.00 ERA ? I don't believe he has.
You have to be realistic here not optimistic.
We'll count that post as a trial run. Care to try again?

ya, why not? you cant deny that they have the potential to do this, so why couldnt it be this year?

JackB
02-07-2009, 11:00 AM
Because Bonderman isn't a 200 K pitcher. Verlander? maybe. And Bonderman isn't an under 4.00 ERA pitcher. Verlander Maybe close.

mark1125
02-07-2009, 11:10 AM
Bonderman- 13-10, 4.25, 170
Verlander- 16-11, 3.85, 190
Gallaraga- 12-10, 4.40, 140

babygranderson
02-07-2009, 12:27 PM
Great Thread. I like the tone set for it.

I am not a math geek, and I don’t understand/value the finer nuances of sabermetrics. However, I like the website www.fangraphs.com. The first batch of predictions is straight from (or my subjective mixture of) the James, Marcel, and CHONE 2009 projections. The second is…ahem…my homer predictions. I feel that the second batch of numbers will end up being more accurate than the first for a variety of fact-based reasons.

I honestly don’t think we can even comprehend how much better our pitchers will “become” this year based on an actual defense behind them. That circus we called a defense last year was one of the worst I have ever witnessed.

1. Verlander should bounce back. In fact, with I wouldn’t be surprised with better numbers than I penciled in for him, but I do worry about his participation in the WBC.
2. Bondo is the enigma, it is difficult to predict which way he’ll go. I truthfully think it will be all or nothing. The post that predicts his 3 win, injury season may not be wrong. On the flip side, several guys have come back BETTER after this same surgery, throwing harder. A Bondo with another mph or two and a tad crisper slide piece could be sinister. I predict a slow start, and then picking up steam in the second half – thus rendering “mediocre” numbers.
3. Galarraga I think is a solid 3, and will hover with solid showings for a number of years, but nothing too down or too great….which is OK with me.
4. Jackson is predicted by many to be lost now that he’s not on the Rays…a 14 game winner who got lucky. I disagree. His age and stuff indicate otherwise. He’s moving to an “easier” division (with ALL those games vs. Chi, CLE, KC, MN vs. NY, BOS,) and I don’t think anyone could argue that the 09 Tiger’s defense is any worse (or better) than the Rays of last year. Copa is certainly a pitcher’s park. I honestly think he may be better than the second set of numbers listed.
5. I don’t want Willis in this spot. I want Miner. I don’t think Miner will get the shot he deserves, though. At any rate, a return to health, dropped junk in the trunk, and the departure of ******* Chuck Hernandez should produce tangible numbers. (Anyone else look at Dontrelle’s BB #’s over his career? He’s never been a control freak, but over his career, his “funky delivery” Jimmy and Chuck were so fixated in correcting never put up the freak show of walks he made last year…and if you watched the games, and look at his other numbers from 08 – everything is in line except those damn walks).

Verlander: 12-8, 3.99, 150k’s
Bondo: 8-6, 4.06, 123 K’s
Galaraga: 10-11, 4.43, 146 K’s
Jackson: 10-11, 4.59, 147K’s
Willis: 7-8, 5.26, 81 K’s


Verlander: 17-9, 3.72, 182
Bondo: 13 – 11, 4.12, 164
Galaraga: 12-11, 4.46, 143
Jackson: 14-10, 4.22, 168
Willis: 10-13, 4.52, 148

Sheffies Chef
02-07-2009, 02:53 PM
First JackB. Bondo is a 200K pitcher. He struck out 200 some in '06. That slider/FB combo is deadly. If he could get that change piece to be even remotely serviceable, he could easily K 190+/year. Barring any injuries of course.

Second, Verlander is an intriguing case. The kid has the talent to be a Cy Young candidate every year, but can he piece it together again, or was last year a sign of things to come? Who knows? Personally, I think he'll return to form (Barring injuries). Mind you, not Cy Young form, but a quality pitcher.

Galarraga will come back down to Earth this year. Not to say he won't have a very nice year and be a nice piece to the rotation, but he'll become a bit more human IMO.

Jackson is a very, very, very interesting case, and I will surely be watching him closely this year. I think honestly he can build off his performance last year. The main thing that troubled him last year IIRC, was his control at times. Well, good control is Rick Knapp's middle name.

I think that Miner takes the 5th slot, maybe not at the beginning of the year, but eventually. I also think that Willis will make starts too, to give guys some breathers.



So I guess:

Verlander: 15-6; 3.83 ERA, 170K's
Bonderman: 18-4; 3.43 ERA; 215K's
Galarraga: 14-9; 4.21 ERA; 140K's
Jackson: 15-6; 3.98 ERA; 140K's
Miner: 10-4; 3.80 ERA; 95K's
Willis: 8-4; 4.50 ERA; 60K's

I think Verlander and Bondo get to the All Star Game, and Bondo finishes in the top 3 for Cy Young.

mkool65
02-07-2009, 03:26 PM
Holy crap^ If our pitchers can somehow manage those numbers than our bullpen will have very little work to do. We will score runs, no question about that, but I think our 4-5 starters will be a thorn in our side all year.

I will say:
Verlander- 17-9 3.88 ERA 230 K's
Bondo- 15-7 4.1 ERA 190 K's
Galarraga- 15-10 4.6 ERA 120 K's
Jackson- 12-6 4.2 ERA 125 K's
Willis 14-10 4.5 ERA 140 K's (I really expect him to be good next year)

mark1125
02-07-2009, 04:39 PM
What we lack in a stud starter, we hae 7 major league starters, so I would hope that at least 4 will be effective to some degree. I like the thought of Miner in the rotation, but I bet that payroll and the desire to have a lefty in the rotation will have Willis in there.

JMDTM
02-07-2009, 06:47 PM
if willis sucks then hes gone, just like last season. robertson, well i hate the guy. id rather Miner in the pen to.

Verlander- 18-8. 3.74 ERA. 190 K's
Bondermon- 15-9. 4.0 ERA. 175 k's
Gallaraga- 12-10. 4.5 ERA. 125 K's
Jackson- 14-13. 4.25 ERA. 120 K's
Willis- 4-7. 5.4 ERA. 75 K's
Robertson- 6-6. 5.1 ERA. 120 K's.
Miner- 5-2. 4.2 ERA. 80 K's

jjrsle
02-08-2009, 01:01 AM
MAGIC 8 BALL SAYS:

Verlander 3.85 17-11 188Ks
Bonderman 4.26 13-12 175Ks

Epic89
02-08-2009, 02:50 AM
Verlander: 14-10, 3.95 ERA, 175K
Bonderman: 12-12, 4.58 ERA, 140K
Galarraga: 10-11, 4.90 ERA, 127K
Jackson: 12-9, 4.84 ERA, 133K
Robertson: 5-14, 5.70 ERA, 110K

JackB
02-08-2009, 10:15 AM
Its ONLY Bonderman and Verlander I am asking about. I'm not concerned about any of the other straters. maybe we will have a thread about them.But for now lets just stick to the two in the heading.

Sheffies Chef
02-08-2009, 02:54 PM
Well Jack, we are answering your questions about Verlander and Bondo, but we are also putting in others to enhance the conversation.

Dude, it's a forum thread. If I had a hundred dollars for every time the thread stuck only to it's proposed heading... i'd still be poor.

JackB
02-08-2009, 03:17 PM
I hear you but I'm not really interested in the others. My focus is on Bonderman and Verlander.Sorry but if I wanted the others included I would have askd for opinions. I don't want to come off as being a smart *** but if you want to post a thread with the whole staff be my guest.
My projections
Verlander 15-12 204 innings 170K's 4.01 ERA
Bonderman 10-8 156 innings 125K's 4.38 ERA
I think they don't push Bonderman . He'll be on a pitche count for a while. Maybe only go 5 innings for the first two or three months.

drewstantontime
02-08-2009, 03:45 PM
I hear you but I'm not really interested in the others. My focus is on Bonderman and Verlander.Sorry but if I wanted the others included I would have askd for opinions. I don't want to come off as being a smart *** but if you want to post a thread with the whole staff be my guest.
My projections
Verlander 15-12 204 innings 170K's 4.01 ERA
Bonderman 10-8 156 innings 125K's 4.38 ERA
I think they don't push Bonderman . He'll be on a pitche count for a while. Maybe only go 5 innings for the first two or three months.

They wont keep Bonderman on only 5 innings for 2-3 months. Maybe 2-3 weeks

JackB
02-08-2009, 04:22 PM
After surgery and being out basically the whole season I doubt very much he throws 110 pitches or more a game and throws 180-200 innings. Thats asking for trouble. They'll ease him into the season. They could do more harm pushing him. Its better to go slow.

Bondomania
02-08-2009, 05:43 PM
it wasn't major surgery though. The only thing that will be effected by the surgery will be his stamina. It isn't like he had to have any tendons repaired or tommy john surgery. I think that he will probably be on a 100 pitch count, but i could also see Jim pulling him early if he gets into the 6th and 7th innings with a reasonable pitch count. I think Knapp has also discovered why Verlander struggled this last year and has had Verlander working on some things in the offseason.

Verlander: 20-3 3.50 ERA & 190 k's
Bonderman: 16-8 4.00 ERA & 180 k's

I think that the blood clot surgery will allow Bonderman to get on top of his slider more this season. Last year he complained of having a heavy arm which was created by the constricted arteries. I think this year we see his velocity come back to 93-96 range and his slider will be back to being as nasty as it was in 2006. He has tinkered with a changeup and it is slowly getting there..

Sheffies Chef
02-09-2009, 01:07 AM
Thanks Bondo.

I don't get what all this "negative" is around Bonderman. The quotations because, it's not really negative, but not what I believe is possible.

I honestly think (and yes, my head tells me this... along with my heart), that Bonderman + Knapp + Healthy + His old stuff + New Improved Changeup + All that Talent = Potential Cy Young Year.

I could easily see him winning 20 games or so given all those things I added come true.

scottie
02-09-2009, 09:11 AM
Verlander 19-5, 3.22era, 185k's Cy Young

Bonderman 16-7 3.46era, 135k's Early All-star and Cy Young, falling off in 2nd half.

Break Out Tiger: Nate Robertson (This guy is the real deal, heart of a champion and the guts of a dragon slayer) Look for him to have his best year ever, wherever he plays.

Bondomania
02-09-2009, 10:13 AM
I am not sure Nate will be on the team. I think if he shows that he is back and throwing well in spring training, then the Tigers will try and trade him. That is assuming Dontrelle is showing progress.

also, i could see Bonderman fading in the second half due to the missed year.

Some people just develop later and i think this is the year that Bonderman takes a huge step in his development. Will he ever be the staffs ace? Probably not, but he is a really good number 2 or number 3 starter in this league. With Porcello coming up and Verlander already assuming the ace role, Bonderman doesn't need to be the staff ace.

Sheffies Chef
02-09-2009, 07:22 PM
I appreciate your enthusiasm Scottie, but weren't you the person who was stating that Todd Jones was practically a beast or something of that nature? I wish Nate all the success in the world, he's a great guy, but he has only had one year where he has shown anything really consistent (06).

scottie
02-09-2009, 08:59 PM
I appreciate your enthusiasm Scottie, but weren't you the person who was stating that Todd Jones was practically a beast or something of that nature? I wish Nate all the success in the world, he's a great guy, but he has only had one year where he has shown anything really consistent (06).

Hold on, don't go telling lies! your pretty good at that. I was and still am a huge Todd Jones fan!!!! Matter of fact it was proven last year he was Detroits best option. After they sent him packing they did far worse. Factually many of the other options that many of you Jones haters proposed, not only were worse then Jones, but a joke. Dolsi closing, or how about Rodney and Zumaya closing...funny....funny... At least I was smart enough to know that Jones was our best option at the time! Jones was far from the reason Detroit played soooo bad last year! Don't bring up stupid stuff, you look childish! Quote me: Robertsoon will have a good year for what ever team he plays for!

mark1125
02-09-2009, 10:51 PM
Hold on, don't go telling lies! your pretty good at that. I was and still am a huge Todd Jones fan!!!! Matter of fact it was proven last year he was Detroits best option. After they sent him packing they did far worse. Factually many of the other options that many of you Jones haters proposed, not only were worse then Jones, but a joke. Dolsi closing, or how about Rodney and Zumaya closing...funny....funny... At least I was smart enough to know that Jones was our best option at the time! Jones was far from the reason Detroit played soooo bad last year! Don't bring up stupid stuff, you look childish! Quote me: Robertsoon will have a good year for what ever team he plays for!

I don't think that will be with Detroit though barring injury. I see him as the odd man out. Willis, Miner and Nate are competing for that final spot.

I think if he gets a change of scenery in a low pressusre setting, he should see some improvement. I won't go far as to say good, but I"good" is relative and for Nate that would be double digit wins and an ERA under 4.50.

To get a shot in Detroit, he will need a mind blowing spring or at least total collapses or injurise by others.

Even if he has a good spring, that may get him dealt.

Epic89
02-10-2009, 01:13 AM
Hold on, don't go telling lies! your pretty good at that. I was and still am a huge Todd Jones fan!!!! Matter of fact it was proven last year he was Detroits best option. After they sent him packing they did far worse. Factually many of the other options that many of you Jones haters proposed, not only were worse then Jones, but a joke. Dolsi closing, or how about Rodney and Zumaya closing...funny....funny... At least I was smart enough to know that Jones was our best option at the time! Jones was far from the reason Detroit played soooo bad last year! Don't bring up stupid stuff, you look childish! Quote me: Robertsoon will have a good year for what ever team he plays for!

:down::down::down:

You can't be serious.

Rodney Stuckey
02-10-2009, 02:28 AM
lol go d-train

cstreid
02-10-2009, 01:45 PM
My projections
Verlander 15-12 204 innings 170K's 4.01 ERA
Bonderman 10-8 156 innings 125K's 4.38 ERA
I think they don't push Bonderman . He'll be on a pitche count for a while. Maybe only go 5 innings for the first two or three months.


For the sake of argument, why do you expect a decline in Bonderman's strike outs, are you that worried about the surgery, attributing this to pitch count? That would be his lowest strikeout total since his first season (aside from last year due to injury). On the other hand, you gave him pretty low ERA for him, that would be his second lowest, aside from last year again, which was cut short.

As for Verlander you are right where statistically he should be, though the ERA is a bit high, if you think last year was an anomally.

My predictions
Bonderman 12-11 160K 4.65 ERA
Verlander 17-10 175K 3.90 ERA

scottie
02-10-2009, 02:17 PM
:down::down::down:

You can't be serious.

Let me get this straight, you've got something negative to express, because I believe Robertson will have a good year next year and put it in writting. WoW, go post somewhere else. And yes I'm serious!

JackB
02-10-2009, 10:29 PM
Robertson has lost some weight. He wasn't that bad a couple of years ago. He seems to get into trouble in the middle innings. Almost like Vaquez. After they have seen him a couple of times. The third time through. I hope you are right Scottie.
But back to Bonderman and Verlander. I think they'll both bounce back but I'm thinking Verlander has a very good season and Bonderman is peaks and valleys. cstreid posted what I would call pretty good numbers for Bondo. Although I do think the K's are too high.

Bondomania
02-11-2009, 12:01 AM
Bonderman is going to K more than you think... i expect him to k probably just as many as Verlander.. if not more.. Verlanders K's baffle me though.. a guy with his arsenal should be striking out way more..

cstreid
02-12-2009, 12:43 PM
Just as a note, Bonderman (taking out last year) averages about 154 strikeouts per year. So my numbers are a little high, but I am thinking he will have a good year. As someone mentioned before, he has had a 200 strikeout season.

Sheffies Chef
02-12-2009, 08:42 PM
Hold on, don't go telling lies! your pretty good at that. I was and still am a huge Todd Jones fan!!!! Matter of fact it was proven last year he was Detroits best option. After they sent him packing they did far worse. Factually many of the other options that many of you Jones haters proposed, not only were worse then Jones, but a joke. Dolsi closing, or how about Rodney and Zumaya closing...funny....funny... At least I was smart enough to know that Jones was our best option at the time! Jones was far from the reason Detroit played soooo bad last year! Don't bring up stupid stuff, you look childish! Quote me: Robertsoon will have a good year for what ever team he plays for!

What lies am I telling exactly?

Dolsi wasn't necessarily a joke as a closer, he only blew one chance I believe, albeit with limited chances. The other two I can agree on though.

What stupid stuff am I bringing up that makes me look childish (And I am a child FYI, so yea, I get a pardon there)?

Ok, I will quote you, Robertson will have a good year wherever he plays. Ok, like I said, I appreciate your optimism, but having the guts and heart like you mentioned, doesn't necessarily translate into success.