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View Full Version : Cabrera is gone. So now what?



Eicholtz
12-14-2008, 12:01 PM
There have been rumors of this and that and there are people available but really nothing has happened.

I am anxious to see Troy Patton get a chance. I want to see Albers stay in the bullpen because he was a huge asset there. But if he has to start so be it. Maybe the two Japanese players will be brought in. Would you welcome Moyer back or Randy Johnson for a year to bridge the gap to the young arms? I would especially a guy like Moyer that these young guys could learn from. Or is there another trade in the future?

Who really knows?

So now that the SS situation is resolved (whether we like the choice or not) they can focus on the biggest need PITCHING. Even though that should have been the focus the whole time. Maybe now they can get back to business and finally fill that rotation out.

What is your projected rotation? Who are they going to get? Basically what do you think is gonna happen?

Brendan
12-14-2008, 12:21 PM
1. Jake Peavy
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Derek Lowe
4. Ben Sheets

:shrug:

vetoedbyangelos
12-14-2008, 09:29 PM
The Orioles' decision to non-tender Daniel Cabrera tells me they're serious about signing one or two free agent pitchers. Ben Sheets would be an excellent fit for the organization, and even though he has endured injury problems, he is one of the few pitchers who represents a genuine upgrade. I don't think the Orioles will target Jon Garland, especially since Cabrera is a much cheaper alternative who produces relatively equivalent results. Getting rid of him tells me that the Orioles are looking at more substantial upgrades - and cutting some dead flesh from their payroll.

Jeremy Guthrie and Ben Sheets would represent a formidable one-two punch. The remaining three slots would probably be populated by one veteran signed to a two-year deal, one with an expiring contract (or a one year deal), and one prospect.

Garland is probably not in the mix. Derek Lowe will get better offers, and the Mets are expected to re-sign Perez. One of the Japanese pitchers makes sense, even though I think the Orioles will hesitate - unless their goal is to overpay for a short-term deal. If so, they'd have to outbid some competitive teams - including the Braves.

With Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and Chris Tillman probably slotting into AAA to start 2009, the Orioles will be forced to sign pitchers off the scrap heap to bridge the gap. Pitchers like Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, and Freddy Garcia will draw interest with one year deals. Pavano and Clement have AL East experience, but Pavano has a better track record - despite his injuries. That's why I think the Orioles will sign Pavano to a one year deal with an option. The Orioles will then allow Baez to try working as a starter - since it's a quick way to rebuild value and trade him if he's successful.

So far, I have Guthrie, Sheets, Pavano, and Baez. The fifth starter would be one of our "experienced" prospects - somebody we aren't worried about failing. Patton will be slotted in at AAA, so he can get familiar with Wieters - Treanor will act as our starting catcher the first month.

That leaves Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, and Hayden Penn. Chris Waters, Brian Burres, and Brian Bass are spare parts - so I'm guessing the Orioles will go with someone they can finally evaluate. Since the Orioles have expressed interest in trading Olson for Pie, and since he's had run ins with management over his attitude, I think it's safe to assume he's either gone or on a very short leash.

That leaves Liz or Penn. Whichever performs better in spring training gets into the rotation, the other becomes a swingman out of the bullpen.

So, here goes:
Guthrie
Sheets
Pavano
Baez
Liz

Hayden Penn would be coming out of the bullpen. Why? Because we already have plenty of hard throwers and late-inning relievers, which is the role Liz would be best suited for. His stuff projects better, and the Orioles saw improvement from him at the end of the year.

Meanwhile, at AAA, Wieters will be working with Bergesen, Hernandez, Tillman, and Patton. As one of our starters falters or gets traded, expect to see prospects called up to work with Wieters as their catcher to help smooth out the transition and break him into the lineup.

bigity b
12-15-2008, 12:03 PM
wow ^^^ great post. I like the signing Sheets idea and even signing Pavano for a 1 or 2 year deal to prove himself (cant do any worse than Benson), but I dont know about the back-end of the rotation (i.e. Baez). We have plenty of prospects I would rather see. I think the O's have something up their sleeve and may work out a trade just because we have so many close to pros prospects and spare bullpen arms. At least thats what I hope. Actually, in all my hopes of hopes (besides signing Tex) I wish Peavy would open up his list and include the O's so we could work out a mega trade that lands us Peavy and Young and they get half our farm system.

jayfantilldeath
12-15-2008, 01:28 PM
Looks like we'll be battling it out for 5th place in the AL East

vetoedbyangelos
12-15-2008, 01:38 PM
I'm not satisfied with the rotation I put out there, but I think it's probably what we'll end up with. Baez has expressed interest in starting again, and since his value is so low, I think MacPhail would be inclined to let him - especially since we presumably have no interest in resigning him.

I agree that Jake Peavy would be an incredible asset, but even if he signed off on a trade to the Orioles, the Padres would want something substantial in return - like Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta. As much as I like Peavy, that's too high of a price - especially with so much uncertainty in our farm system.

I could see Matt Albers slipping into the rotation, but I think the Orioles want to proceed cautiously with him because of last year's injury. Odds are, he'll work exclusively out of the bullpen - and so would Dennis Sarfate. Logically, the Orioles figure they could assemble a patchwork rotation fronted by two good starters that can still be effective when their prospects are ready in 2010.

Peavy would block one more spot in the rotation, eliminate prospects, and increase our payroll. It's the same reason that the Yankees didn't pull the trigger on Johan Santana. It's okay to give up cash or prospects, but in today's climate, not both.

The Orioles also need to properly evaluate Hayden Penn, and since his injury history is staggering, I think they'd want to use him in moderation out of the pen - under controlled circumstances. They haven't made up their mind about Liz, and the last thing they want is to see him develop like Edison Volquez did in Cincinnati - while he's with another team.

They're not in a position to give away any future aces - no matter how good Peavy is (and he is extremely good). The only question in my mind is who gets added to the rotation? Will it be Pavano, one of the Japanese pitchers, another free agent, or a trade acquisition. I'm inclined to think Pavano, but with Krivsky being appointed to the O's front office, it could be a Reds pitcher that he recommends to MacPhail. MacPhail likes nothing better than poaching from other teams based on former employees recommendations.

I think Chris Young is attainable, and the price is probably in line with what we're willing to give up. Also, it could free up some cash and buy time for Towers to make a Peavy deal elsewhere. Doesn't mean it will happen. That's the problem with fan-made trade proposals - they often fall on deaf ears.

I'm okay with Guthrie, Sheets, Pavano, Baez, and Liz - but I do think they'll sign another crusty veteran and stash him at AAA, in case of injuries. The ideal candidate would be Freddy Garcia, who is desperately trying to re-establish his career.

The reason I'm so sure of their direction is simple. If Pavano, Baez, or Garcia excel - they'll be able to net prospects at the summer deadline. If not, they're low risk investments. It's like adding Ryan Freel, it adds flexibility and options for MacPhail to make his next move - without compromising the future.

I'm also going to take a stab at the order the Orioles recall their prospects.
1. Troy Patton - we just want to make sure he's healthy first
2. Brad Bergesen - good control and durability give him an edge here
3. David Hernandez - will probably get a preview out of the bullpen
4. Chris Tillman - possible September call-up, just to tease the fans
5. Brian Matusz - could break camp in 2010 with the Orioles, not a lock
6. Jake Arrieta - no rush bringing him up, but he might force his way in by 2010

Jason Berken will probably emerge as our "AAAA" pitcher, the new Brian Burres. Young arms will probably be auditioned out of the bullpen because MacPhail would put Baez as a starter and look at dealing Jamie Walker to save cash.

I'm also beginning to think that MacPhail is a great fit to work with Scott Boras and land Teixeira. Both are extremely meticulous and deliberate in their actions, and Boras knows if Teixeira goes to Baltimore that it could be the beginning of a beautiful relationship - just like the one he had with the Tigers.

TChef02
12-15-2008, 02:44 PM
I am not sold on Baez; I would much rather see Penn get a shot at the 5th spot in the rotation and the idea of signing Sheets I would support fully. I think he's a great starter and could add a lot to our rotation.

bigity b
12-15-2008, 02:53 PM
^^ question on last paragraph - doesnt it feel to you like Boras is trying to hand deliver Tex to the Red Sox and using the O's and Nats to drive up the price. Thats what i think. I also think its weird all contract offers have been made public (Angels, O's, Nats) except for the Red Sox, and they're the front runners? The other guys arent even given a chance, just some feel-good pr stories.

As to your second-to-last paragraph and list of call-ups, etc, it reminded me - what about all the pitchers that were in the majors/minors last year. Where do they all go? I'm talking about the list that includes Burres, Waters, Olson, Hoey, etc. If we dont make deals, we have a lot of extra young arms....

As for final moves on the rotation, I'm all for signing the likes of Garcia for win-win reasons. How much do you think it'll take to sign Sheets - $10 mil per? Do you think any future signings depend on where Tex lands first?

bauer77
12-15-2008, 03:40 PM
i think that boras is using the nats and o's to drive up the price defintly. he wants tex to go to the red sox. he wants to go to a winning team. if he were to take the nats or o;s offer that would show he is jus playin for the money.

I also think we should sign sheets. idk if he is lookin to come here but that would b a great fit. it would also b good to sign pavano. Maybe he could revive his career. B as good as he was b4 he was with the yanks and he could b a steal.

vetoedbyangelos
12-15-2008, 03:48 PM
^^ question on last paragraph - doesnt it feel to you like Boras is trying to hand deliver Tex to the Red Sox and using the O's and Nats to drive up the price. Thats what i think. I also think its weird all contract offers have been made public (Angels, O's, Nats) except for the Red Sox, and they're the front runners? The other guys arent even given a chance, just some feel-good pr stories.

As to your second-to-last paragraph and list of call-ups, etc, it reminded me - what about all the pitchers that were in the majors/minors last year. Where do they all go? I'm talking about the list that includes Burres, Waters, Olson, Hoey, etc. If we dont make deals, we have a lot of extra young arms....

As for final moves on the rotation, I'm all for signing the likes of Garcia for win-win reasons. How much do you think it'll take to sign Sheets - $10 mil per? Do you think any future signings depend on where Tex lands first?

First things first. ESPN might as well have a Red Sox pennant flying next to the anchors' desk. Other stations have shown more restraint in their coverage, especially when it comes to handicapping where Tex will sign. The Orioles' offer, according to reports, offers the highest annual salary.

I think the Orioles might be a surprise front runner, even if it's not being reported. MacPhail has been surprisingly talkative, and Angelos has taken a personal interest in bringing Teixeira to Baltimore. Boras will use the news, however, to spin it that the Red Sox are all in on Teixeira and try to get the Orioles to bump their offer to 8-10 years. Boras always uses misdirection, and media reports surrounding his clients can't be trusted.

It might also be his way of letting the Red Sox know where their competition is sitting. If the Red Sox come in with a big offer, focus will shift to another phantom offer for even more money. MacPhail has the patience to endure this, other GMs might not.

As far as our pitchers go, I think Olson might be done in an Orioles uniform. We've already shopped him once, and the team wasn't impressed by his work ethic and attitude while he was getting shelled. Liz is still in the mix.

James Hoey is a reliever by trade, so he won't get blocked behind high-profile starters. Chris Waters, Brian Burres, and Brian Bass are what a lot of people call "AAAA" pitchers. Not good enough for big league action, but serviceable enough to work in small stretches. Bass is the most intriguing, and he might get bullpen work in 2009 - but the others are simply live arms our organization uses to plug in the holes. If talent dictates, these players could be left unprotected in future Rule 5 drafts, given their outright release, or end up in a new town.

Ben Sheets will probably require a 4-year deal worth about $13m per, just because of supply and demand. In my opinion, that's a fair price. The market for him isn't very big, and we could swoop in with a good offer and get things done quickly. I think the Orioles might try to make a hard and fast play for Sheets, knowing if they sign him it would increase Teixeira's interest in Baltimore. If things are going to drag out with Teixeira, and the Orioles know it, they'll probably take a more laid back approach and use the time to dump a little more salary and make sure there's enough free for both players.

VBCrazy8
12-16-2008, 05:49 PM
Apparently the O's are very interested in Tim Redding after he was released by the Nationals. In the same article, they also mention interest in Carl Pavano.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081216&content_id=3719170&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal

Tim Redding will be 31 years old next season w/ a career ERA of .492 and 476 K's over the last 7 seasons.

Carl Pavano will be 33 with a career ERA of .462 and 692 K's over 10 seasons.

If the O's would sign these two guys, with Guthrie that would give us 3 solid right-handed starting pitchers. I'm not totally sold on Pavano, but he better than anything we've had in recent years. Now we need to find a leftie or two to balance out that rotation. Here's to hoping we can sign at least one of these guys.:rock:

thegreatone08
12-16-2008, 07:40 PM
All we need to get is some veterans that will give us some quality innings. Our offense is good enough that if we can get some decent pitching we can 70+ games. I'm tired of just throwing in young guys and hoping they do good. Sign 3 vets to 2 year deals each. Lets get these young guys a couple more years in the minors, sure up our lineup and we should be competing around 2011.