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View Full Version : Carlos Marmol vs. Francisco Rodriguez



Doogolas
12-09-2008, 06:41 AM
Both are outstanding relievers with amazing stuff. I just want to know if money/years etc are equal, who do you take?

todu82
12-09-2008, 10:58 AM
Rodriguez

1-800-STFU
12-09-2008, 11:27 AM
Marmol. Only thing K-Rod has is ERA which doesn't matter.

It isn't even THAT close.

07MVPPatBurrell
12-09-2008, 11:55 AM
k-rod , he has the track record. but for the future , i'd probably take marmol

Doogolas
12-09-2008, 12:01 PM
Marmol. Only thing K-Rod has is ERA which doesn't matter.

It isn't even THAT close.

I was checking this, just to see if you were right... wow:

K-Rod : 68.3IP/2.24ERA/1.288WHIP/10.17K/9/4.49BB/9/.216BAA/.314OBP/.316SLG/.630OPS//3.59tRA/120tR+
Marmol:
87.3IP/2.68ERA/0.927WHIP//11.75K/9/4.23BB/9/.135BAA/.251OBP/.257SLG/.508OPS/2.49tRA/144tRA+

It really isn't close at all... I'm rather surprised, I mean, I'd take Marmol, but I'm also a Cubs fan. I figured it was a bit closer.

Though, K-Rod does have the track record. Marmol has two years.

lynchgagne
12-09-2008, 12:05 PM
i voted for K-rod he has the track and record and closed out some big games... plus im tired of cub fan on there knees begging for some marmol recognition even though everyone saw what marmol did was impressive its just that no one cares

McJoe
12-09-2008, 12:35 PM
everyone says saves are overrated but once i see Marmol come in with 2 on and nobody out in a 1 run game in the 9th inning and get the job done THEN i will consider this a comparison.

Krod's krate may be sliding and his ERA and WHIP may be high but he was still LIGHTS OUT in the 9th inning last season and set an all time record with 62 saves. Saves may be overrated as a stat but clutch 9th inning pitching cant be shown in a stat and K-rod has been a top 5 closer in baseball for years now.

Lets let Marmol show ANY of what Krod has already shown in the 9th inning and we can give him some love but this is Krod by A LOT

1-800-STFU
12-09-2008, 12:48 PM
everyone says saves are overrated but once i see Marmol come in with 2 on and nobody out in a 1 run game in the 9th inning and get the job done THEN i will consider this a comparison.

Krod's krate may be sliding and his ERA and WHIP may be high but he was still LIGHTS OUT in the 9th inning last season and set an all time record with 62 saves. Saves may be overrated as a stat but clutch 9th inning pitching cant be shown in a stat and K-rod has been a top 5 closer in baseball for years now.

Lets let Marmol show ANY of what Krod has already shown in the 9th inning and we can give him some love but this is Krod by A LOT

Marmol is more important than a closer. They save him for when they NEED him in tight spots. To close a game you need to get into the 9th with the lead. Closer as a whole is a overrated spot.

The bolded is completely untrue. Paps, Rivera, Nathan, Soria, Lidge are all better than him going by K/9 and whip which are much more telling for relievers.

Ill take Marmol, the more effective pitcher, any day.

McJoe
12-09-2008, 01:12 PM
Marmol is more important than a closer. They save him for when they NEED him in tight spots. To close a game you need to get into the 9th with the lead. Closer as a whole is a overrated spot.

The bolded is completely untrue. Paps, Rivera, Nathan, Soria, Lidge are all better than him going by K/9 and whip which are much more telling for relievers.

Ill take Marmol, the more effective pitcher, any day.

Lidge was practically in the minors before last season he had lost his job and basically lost his ROSTER spot. I have all of the other 4 ahead of him and Putz instead of Soria the previous years when Soria was a rookie.

Krod has been closing for a long time and Marmol has 8 career saves.

You are massively underrating the 9th inning, under the lights, the pressure. Have you ever saved a game at any level??? When your on the road and the game is on the line and if you blow it your gonna lose cause your team wont come back up to the plate or your gonna go to extras then the pressure can really get to you. Set up men are overrated because they know that if they blow it their teammates may be able to pick them up next inning. Not so if your closing the game out. Its a different feeling. I've never closed a game on the pro level of course but just closing a game is hard to do.

acousticmike80
12-09-2008, 01:17 PM
Look, this has got to be K-Rod.

Marmol is extremely talented and has nasty stuff....but we are not debating "stuff" or a year or two of stats.

K-Rod has proven since 2002 that he can pitch in big spots and shut the door. It takes a special type of pitcher to do that.

If Marmol can become a lights out closer with his nasty stuff....I think this could be a very valid debate.....but at this point we are debating a proven top notch closer against a nasty young set-up man.

Stackshot
12-09-2008, 01:30 PM
Look, this has got to be K-Rod.

Marmol is extremely talented and has nasty stuff....but we are not debating "stuff" or a year or two of stats.

K-Rod has proven since 2002 that he can pitch in big spots and shut the door. It takes a special type of pitcher to do that.

If Marmol can become a lights out closer with his nasty stuff....I think this could be a very valid debate.....but at this point we are debating a proven top notch closer against a nasty young set-up man.


I, along with many other Cubs fans, will be very, very sad and angry the day they announce him as the closer.

He's much more important as the set-up man, as it has been previously said.

But yeah, I don't see how it's a good idea to force your best reliever to ONLY pitch the ninth, when as a stopper he can shut down the opposing team at any point, whenever the game is getting out of hand.

The Closer is very overrated in importance by the average fan, and will probably remain that way until the media stops educating the public in BS baseball.

ritz
12-09-2008, 02:01 PM
I can see where you guys are coming from as far as the closer spot being overrated, but as a Mets fan, I've seen that the closer by committee thing doesn't work with this team. The bullpen blew this past season and when Wagner got hurt they tried different guys to close out a game and it just didn't work.

cambovenzi
12-09-2008, 02:26 PM
ERA and saves dont matter?
now ive heard it all.

Krod has a lower ERA, and his track record shows he can keep it low regardless of whether he gives up more hits. he also has proven that he shuts the door and gets the job done when it counts.
who cares if he gives up more baserunners?

C1Bman88
12-09-2008, 02:45 PM
ERA and saves dont matter?
now ive heard it all.

Krod has a lower ERA, and his track record shows he can keep it low regardless of whether he gives up more hits. he also has proven that he shuts the door and gets the job done when it counts.
who cares if he gives up more baserunners?

It's when you see a declining strikeout rate and an increasing line drive rate along with an already high walk rate that'll make you worry about a pitcher.

The problem with Rodriguez giving up more baserunners is that if he continues this trend of declining peripherals, it'll become increasingly difficult for him to "shut the door."

Doogolas
12-09-2008, 03:47 PM
I can see where you guys are coming from as far as the closer spot being overrated, but as a Mets fan, I've seen that the closer by committee thing doesn't work with this team. The bullpen blew this past season and when Wagner got hurt they tried different guys to close out a game and it just didn't work.

Closer by committee is awful. Have a closer, just not your best guy.

Also, here is why closers are overrated:

When the home team is winning by one run in the ninth inning of a ball game, they are expected to win the game about 87% of the time, if the away team is leading in the ninth they are expected to win about 84% of the time. With a lead of two the home team should win about 95% of the time and the visiting team 94%, and finally with a three run lead the home team is expected to win the game 98% of the time while the visiting team should win 97% of games going into the bottom of the ninth with a three run lead. These numbers are all based on the fact that the closer comes into the game with nobody out and nobody on base, which is where the vast majority of their saves come from. Based on this, the average pitcher that is put in the role of closer should be able to convert higher than 84% of saves.

So basically, K-Rod, an amazing pitcher converted 62 saves last year blowing nine. That's 89%.

Here's a fun fact though, K-Rod was 19/24 in 1 run save situations, that puts him at 79%. That's below average in those almighty big games that he's a beast in.

K-Rod is awesome, but misused as a closer. Put your second best guy at closer, third if he's good enough to give you a 3.5ERA or lower.

Chances are you're going to get a save percentage between 85%-90% that way and have your best guy for the really scary times when the game is really in trouble.

johnnylee722
12-09-2008, 04:15 PM
If I were the Mets and I could only pick one guy it would be K-Rod.

yaowowrocket11
12-09-2008, 04:41 PM
K-Rod. I need to see a full season as closer from Marmol before I can rank him against other closers.

1-800-STFU
12-09-2008, 05:40 PM
Marmol closing is probably the worse possible thing for him. Stopper > Closer.

S.P.
12-09-2008, 06:34 PM
Closer by committee is awful. Have a closer, just not your best guy.

Also, here is why closers are overrated:

When the home team is winning by one run in the ninth inning of a ball game, they are expected to win the game about 87% of the time, if the away team is leading in the ninth they are expected to win about 84% of the time. With a lead of two the home team should win about 95% of the time and the visiting team 94%, and finally with a three run lead the home team is expected to win the game 98% of the time while the visiting team should win 97% of games going into the bottom of the ninth with a three run lead. These numbers are all based on the fact that the closer comes into the game with nobody out and nobody on base, which is where the vast majority of their saves come from. Based on this, the average pitcher that is put in the role of closer should be able to convert higher than 84% of saves.

So basically, K-Rod, an amazing pitcher converted 62 saves last year blowing nine. That's 89%.

Here's a fun fact though, K-Rod was 19/24 in 1 run save situations, that puts him at 79%. That's below average in those almighty big games that he's a beast in.

K-Rod is awesome, but misused as a closer. Put your second best guy at closer, third if he's good enough to give you a 3.5ERA or lower.

Chances are you're going to get a save percentage between 85%-90% that way and have your best guy for the really scary times when the game is really in trouble.
That was a good post.

mnrlgry
12-09-2008, 08:41 PM
Why in the world would you have your second best pitcher at closer?! It makes no sense, Cubs fans are trying to rewrite the book on bullpens because Marmol was a set up guy last year.

PunkShizzle
12-09-2008, 10:03 PM
Why in the world would you have your second best pitcher at closer?! It makes no sense, Cubs fans are trying to rewrite the book on bullpens because Marmol was a set up guy last year.

Did you read his post? It's a good summation of the argument, and is more than valid. At least comment on the points made.

NYMetros
12-09-2008, 11:47 PM
It's K-Rod.

Marmol isn't a closer. I really don't get how this is even close.

NYMetros
12-09-2008, 11:49 PM
If I were the Mets and I could only pick one guy it would be K-Rod.

Over Papelbon, Nathan, and Soria?

con_artist
12-09-2008, 11:59 PM
K-Rod, he's one of the better closers in the league, while Marmol has yet to prove himself in the closer's role

Matchstckman
12-10-2008, 12:08 AM
If you think K-Rod is a better pitcher, that's fine. But if you say K-Rod is better because he's a closer and Marmol was a set-up man that's stupid.

djeller1139
12-10-2008, 12:16 AM
K-Rod....for now

Marmol definitely will be better though, maybe even after this season.

Stackshot
12-10-2008, 12:34 AM
Why in the world would you have your second best pitcher at closer?! It makes no sense, Cubs fans are trying to rewrite the book on bullpens because Marmol was a set up guy last year.

It's not Cubs fans trying to "rewrite the books on bullpens". One of the main proponents of this is a very obvious Sox fan.

Stop believing things just because "that's how it's done". There's multiple myths and misunderstandings sadly stuck in some baseball fans minds. The truth is, the #2 hitter shouldn't be a ****** weakling, don't judge starters by their records, stolen bases aren't as important as the average fan thinks they are. Lastly, the closer role is less than or equal to the stopper role, with a leaning towards the less than.

Forcing your best reliever to stick to the 9th, no matter who is coming up to bat that inning, when using him in the 6th 7th or 8th in more important situations would be better for the team. If you don't have a good stopper to get you out of big-time jams, then you never see the closer.


The closer role is overrated when you acknowledge that the set-up/stopper role is slightly more important.


Stopper > Closer.

Stackshot
12-10-2008, 12:42 AM
Closer by committee is awful. Have a closer, just not your best guy.

Also, here is why closers are overrated:

When the home team is winning by one run in the ninth inning of a ball game, they are expected to win the game about 87% of the time, if the away team is leading in the ninth they are expected to win about 84% of the time. With a lead of two the home team should win about 95% of the time and the visiting team 94%, and finally with a three run lead the home team is expected to win the game 98% of the time while the visiting team should win 97% of games going into the bottom of the ninth with a three run lead. These numbers are all based on the fact that the closer comes into the game with nobody out and nobody on base, which is where the vast majority of their saves come from. Based on this, the average pitcher that is put in the role of closer should be able to convert higher than 84% of saves.

So basically, K-Rod, an amazing pitcher converted 62 saves last year blowing nine. That's 89%.

Here's a fun fact though, K-Rod was 19/24 in 1 run save situations, that puts him at 79%. That's below average in those almighty big games that he's a beast in.

K-Rod is awesome, but misused as a closer. Put your second best guy at closer, third if he's good enough to give you a 3.5ERA or lower.

Chances are you're going to get a save percentage between 85%-90% that way and have your best guy for the really scary times when the game is really in trouble.

Just quoting it to get it shown again, because I couldn't say it any better.

Doogolas
12-10-2008, 04:39 AM
Here are people's save+hold (Because they're literally the same thing just not in the ninth inning. Most of these guys are closers anyways so the numbers are literally the exact same thing) conversion rates over the years. Next to it is how many saves they'd have converted out of the 69 opportunities K-Rod got last season:


1. Brian Wilson: 88% 61/69
2. Hoffman: 89% 62/69
3. Cordero: 85% 59/69
Jenks: 88% 61/69
Valverde: 88% 61/69
Dempster: 87% 60/69
Rodriguez: 88% 61/69 (though he got 62/69 in actuality, slightly higher than his career mark)
Danny Graves: 83% 57/69
Papelbon: 88% 61/69
Wagner: 86% 59/69
Fuentes: 88% 61/69
Nathan: 90% 62/69
Lidge: 89% 62/69
Saito: 89% 62/69
Benitez: 86% 59/69
Smoltz: 91% 63/69
Isringhausen: 85% 59/69
Koch: 85% 59/69
Todd Jones: 85% 59/69
Bob Howry: 86% 59/69
Farnsworth: 84% 58/69
Tom Gordon: 84% 58/69
Dan Kolb: 85% 59/69
Derrick Turnbow: 88% 61/69
Joe Borowski: 84% 58/69
Solomon Torres: 86% 59/69
Brandon Lyon: 85% 59/69
CJ Wilson: 90% 62/69
Sherrill: 90% 62/69
BJ Ryan: 87% 60/69
Derek Lowe: 84% 58/69
Bob Wickman: 84% 58/69
Mike Williams: 86% 59/69
Octovio Dotel: 84% 58/69
Ugeth Urbina: 85% 59/69
36. John Rocker: 85% 59/69

(Not in order of skill. The first three are just pointed out because they're considered "ELITE" The 36 is just showing the sample size.)

What I said was that you should expect EVERYONE to have between an 85-95% conversion rate. In fact, it's closer than I thought, only a 7% difference between the high and low.

Really, not a big difference. I'd venture to guess it costs them two games, but having K-Rod available for times earlier in games to come in and dominate would probably have won them more than the two more losses.

Just adding this to the fun:
In one run closing situations over the last 2-3 years for closers (Expected rate should be between 80-85%):

Hoffman: 22/30 73%
Rivera: 24/27 89%
Valverde: 29/37 78%
Wilson: 21/23 91%
Jones: 19/22 86%
Rodriguez: 31/38 82%
Lidge: 26/30 87%
Dempster 27/34 80% (05/06/07 numbers had to use three to get a a decent sample 14 of them came from 05)
Papelbon: 24/29 83%
Wagner: 32/40 80% (06-08 numbers because of very small number from 08)
Nathan: 29/35 83%
Total: 284/345 82%

Also something to keep in mind: These are there saves/BS which means that the team did not necessarily LOSE the game, the closer simply didn't hold the lead. Which makes the numbers actually make perfect sense considering the home team wins 87% and away 84% when up by 1 run in the ninth. The overall total being currently at 82% is actually perfect for showing this point. Only Rivera and BRIAN FREAKING WILSON are above the percentage for both home and away team expected win% when leading by 1 in the final inning. Lidge is equal to the home expected and nobody else except Jones is above the Away% in these situations.

There is no real pattern with the great closers, Hoffman has sucked in these situations, Wagner has been meh, while Rivera and Lidge have been good but then Brian Wilson and Todd Jones have been great and good in these situations respectively.

futureheisman
12-24-2008, 10:55 AM
Hamels

MJ-BULLS
01-20-2009, 01:47 PM
k rod is better but marmol has chance of being better nasty stuff