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hotpotato1092
11-19-2008, 10:25 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos1

Some things I found interesting:
- Mavs have a 56.7% chance at playoffs despite a 4-7 record
- Cavs have a 48.2% chance at the top east seed despite being .5 games behind Boston and losing head to head to Boston.
- Knicks have only a 10.5% chance at playoffs despite a 6-5 record in the much easier eastern conference (the gap isn't as big but the west is still supreme)
- Memphis at 4-7 having a 19.0% chance at the playoffs while sacramento is only 2.9% with a 4-8 record.
-We're 10 games into the season and the lakers have a 100% chance at the playoffs while the clippers have a 10% chance, yup things are back to normal in tinseltown.

Ansy
11-19-2008, 10:31 PM
LOL at the Clippers worst simulated season of 1:81.

JIDsanity
11-19-2008, 10:37 PM
What a shame

JMan17
11-19-2008, 10:38 PM
Lakers at best: 77-5 :cool:

Vinny642
11-19-2008, 10:42 PM
LOL at CLippers 1-82
Hornets are under the Suns IDK y

_Sn1P3r_
11-19-2008, 10:45 PM
Dam, 1-81. Lol. It's so sad, Raps aren't even in the playoff picture no more. I know it's early in the season but still..

unwantedplayer
11-19-2008, 10:54 PM
these ratings are way too overrated

wwwhat
11-19-2008, 10:56 PM
I laughed so hard at 0.0% chance of Clips making the playoffs.

IBleedPurple
11-19-2008, 11:11 PM
I laughed so hard at 0.0% chance of Clips making the playoffs.

Seriously, that is mathematically impossible. Should've at least bumped it to .1 to make it some chance.

7 teams have less than a 10% chance, and 5 teams have less than a 3% chance :confused:

Worst use of stats EVER

ARMIN12NBA
11-19-2008, 11:13 PM
LOL @ Hollinger.

GregOden#1
11-19-2008, 11:53 PM
Gotta give it to Hollinger for applying these stats in the right way, even though they may come out a little awkward. One of the few guys that is man enough not to doctor his stats like almost every other guy out there.

JordansBulls
11-19-2008, 11:57 PM
Good to see how Hollinger uses metrics like these by using stats to make his picks instead of just being biased and picking a team to win or be better.

ARMIN12NBA
11-20-2008, 12:14 AM
Good to see how Hollinger uses metrics like these by using stats to make his picks instead of just being biased and picking a team to win or be better.

Don't forget the third option. Using your mind and knowledge of the game of basketball. He can always use that (too bad he ignores that even though I have seen him make great analysis, but then says nevermind because stats tell him to say another...and he gets burned every time).

hotpotato1092
11-20-2008, 12:26 AM
You can't make rankings like this with only stats and you can't only use your head, you have to combine stats with what you really think will happen over a full season. I'm sure the clippers aren't going 1-81

ARMIN12NBA
11-20-2008, 01:02 AM
You can't make rankings like this with only stats and you can't only use your head, you have to combine stats with what you really think will happen over a full season. I'm sure the clippers aren't going 1-81

Considering they have won 2 games, I am going to go out on a limb and say that is a pretty fair assessment.

innovator
11-20-2008, 03:49 AM
its true that the clippers has no chance cuz they suck and its sure that lakers will make it

Lakersfan2483
11-20-2008, 04:33 AM
Don't forget the third option. Using your mind and knowledge of the game of basketball. He can always use that (too bad he ignores that even though I have seen him make great analysis, but then says nevermind because stats tell him to say another...and he gets burned every time).

Agreed. I don't even pay attention to what Hollinger has to say, it's a waste of time.

Ansy
11-20-2008, 04:54 AM
You can't make rankings like this with only stats and you can't only use your head, you have to combine stats with what you really think will happen over a full season. I'm sure the clippers aren't going 1-81

He didn't predict them to go 1-81, that was the worst case scenario over 5000 simulations. Basically he was saying there's a 1/5000 chance that they go 1-81.

Tblaze
11-20-2008, 05:04 AM
He didn't predict them to go 1-81, that was the worst case scenario over 5000 simulations. Basically he was saying there's a 1/5000 chance that they go 1-81.

no he might've gotten more 1-81 simulations among those 5000. It just never got worse then 1-81 which is pretty much impossible anyway.

Chronz
11-20-2008, 04:15 PM
Don't forget the third option. Using your mind and knowledge of the game of basketball. He can always use that (too bad he ignores that even though I have seen him make great analysis, but then says nevermind because stats tell him to say another...and he gets burned every time).

When? and LINK please

fredv
11-20-2008, 04:39 PM
Wow. Portland has a 96.3% chance of making the playoffs. Thats funny. And SanAn has a 19.9% chance of making them.

There's no such thing as stats and chance. ;)

Portland can go from 96.3% to 0.0% if there lineup dies in a plane accident. But then again, whats the percentage of having a full lineup die in a plane crash?
Kobe can break his leg while crossing the street...

Just useless stats and the season is long.

JMKnick33
11-20-2008, 04:51 PM
Indiana Pacers as the fifth seed?!

Hmmm...we'll see about that....

who they got? granger, dunleavy, ford, murphy, and nesterovic..

that 5 is better than 76ers, raptors, and knicks starting 5???

ARMIN12NBA
11-20-2008, 09:36 PM
When? and LINK please

I don't feel like searching for a link, but I am sure you can remember this (or even search for it). He was talking (last year) about how good the Lakers were and how quickly they were gaining chemistry...But then said the Jazz were going to beat the Lakers in the second round of the playoffs because of some statistics. As a Laker fan, I remembered that. Those moments are one of the main reasons I HATE Hollinger. The guy makes good analysis and is capable of making the smart observation (combining watching the games with stats), but he ditches it for pure stats. He is getting better as of late, but picked the Jazz to win the WC championship this year again because of stats. It is pretty ridiculous.

Lakersfan2483
11-20-2008, 09:51 PM
I don't feel like searching for a link, but I am sure you can remember this (or even search for it). He was talking (last year) about how good the Lakers were and how quickly they were gaining chemistry...But then said the Jazz were going to beat the Lakers in the second round of the playoffs because of some statistics. As a Laker fan, I remembered that. Those moments are one of the main reasons I HATE Hollinger. The guy makes good analysis and is capable of making the smart observation (combining watching the games with stats), but he ditches it for pure stats. He is getting better as of late, but picked the Jazz to win the WC championship this year again because of stats. It is pretty ridiculous.


Hollinger's analyses are a joke.

Mr.Grizzly
11-20-2008, 10:14 PM
yeah grizz

IBleedPurple
11-20-2008, 10:14 PM
Gotta give it to Hollinger for applying these stats in the right way, even though they may come out a little awkward. One of the few guys that is man enough not to doctor his stats like almost every other guy out there.

That is the dumbest comment I have ever seen. His stats are garbage, what is the point?

EricGordon#10
11-21-2008, 08:58 AM
HAHA they have Washington last just wait till the team is healthy.

JJ81
11-21-2008, 09:31 AM
Lakers at best = 79-3

:clap:

DenButsu
11-21-2008, 09:33 AM
Wow. Portland has a 96.3% chance of making the playoffs. Thats funny. And SanAn has a 19.9% chance of making them.

There's no such thing as stats and chance. ;)

Portland can go from 96.3% to 0.0% if there lineup dies in a plane accident. But then again, whats the percentage of having a full lineup die in a plane crash?
Kobe can break his leg while crossing the street...

Just useless stats and the season is long.

I'm not going to go back and re-read that stuff, but if you look at his breakdown, IIRC he explicitly states that early in the season it's less accurate (sample size) and it increasingly grows in accuracy as the season progresses. I think it has been a fairly good predictor at times. Just luck? Maybe. It's just one device that analyzes a certain set of information. But if you think stats are "useless", you'll have about every coaching staff and scout in the league disagreeing with you.

DenButsu
11-21-2008, 09:35 AM
His stats are garbage

What exactly do you mean by that?

What precisely is your criticism of his process of analyzing the stats? What is he doing wrong?

jimbobjarree
11-21-2008, 09:47 AM
how the hell are portland so high?

Fool
11-21-2008, 11:44 AM
I doubt that the gap between the 1st and second team in the west will be that many games. 64 wins for the 1 seed and 49 for the second?

NYMetros
11-21-2008, 11:48 AM
Wow, the Lakers have over a 50% chance of winning the NBA Finals.

Very interesting projections.