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Wilson
10-28-2008, 02:11 PM
OK, I know TMQ isn't a basketball column, but I thought this was interesting:


B-Ball Guys, Forget "One and Done;" Stay in School to Be Drafted Higher and Earn More Overall Through Your Career: Following the NFL draft, TMQ noted that the NFL's advisory committee, which gives underclassmen an estimate of where they will be drafted, and draftnik commentary in general, both overstate a player's odds of being drafted high, or drafted at all. I cited examples of football players who had been enticed by such overestimates to give up their senior years because they expected to be drafted high, then were drafted low or not drafted at all.

The same tendency to overestimate draft chances is drawing underclassman basketball players out of college. In the run-up to the NBA draft, ESPN.com's Insider ranked the top 100 prospects and estimated their draft slots. The estimates had 19 players going in the lottery (where there are 14 positions), 44 players going in the first round (there are 30 choices) and 69 players going in the 30 choices of the second round (that adds up to more than 100 owing to some players listed as likely to go in the "late first to early second" round). Many basketball touts and hangers-on were urging players on the bubble to jump out of college, in part by overestimating their draft prospects. Jump early and become a star, like Kobe Bryant, and you maximize your lifetime earnings. Jump early and struggle -- like the majority of those who jump early to the NBA -- and you cost yourself millions of dollars.

Underclassman basketball players ranked by touts as likely to be drafted in the first round, including Mario Chalmers, DeAndre Jordan and Chris Douglas-Roberts, gave up the rest of their college experience only to last until the second round. After the draft, John Denton of ESPN.com wrote, "Chalmers, the Final Four's Most Outstanding Player and a hero for hitting the clutch 3-pointer that forced overtime, looked on in disbelief on draft night as the first round came and went without his name being announced ... Douglas-Roberts ... has fumed about his horrifying draft experience." I attended the Final Four, and while watching CDR, I thought, "He is a potential star but there is no way he's ready." Egged on by overstated estimates, CDR left college and declared for the draft, only to discover the NBA consensus was that he should have stayed in school.

JaVale McGee left college as a sophomore but after playing for only one year -- he did not start as a freshman, and was not dominant when he did play as a soph. Perhaps he believed projections of himself as a lottery pick; instead McGee went 18th overall, to Washington. Had he stayed in college longer and become a great player, plus well-known, fans would be saying, "Wow, the Wizards got JaVale McGee!" Instead fans are saying, "Who is JaVale McGee?" Because McGee jumped too soon, the odds are he will have a hard climb to be more than an NBA backup, because at the pro level, he's not going to get the minutes he needs to improve his game. In turn, he will have a nice income in the next two years, versus no income had he remained in college. But his lifetime income will likely drop way down because he may never advance to a mega-contract. Jordan was a particularly sad case because he jumped after his freshman year, expecting to go in the first round. Had he stayed in school he had an excellent chance of reaching the high first round and substantially increasing his lifetime earnings. Instead, he went in the second round, will struggle to get minutes, and is now much more likely to have a minimum-scale NBA career than ever advance to a mega-contract. Jumping early may have reduced his lifetime sports earnings by tens of millions of dollars.

Will current college basketball players learn the lesson of overestimation of draft status? Already ESPN Insider is listing the top 100 prospects for the 2009 NBA draft. Seventeen are listed as going in the 14 lottery positions, 56 in the 30 positions of the first round and 71 in the 40 possible positions of first round to early second round. There may be many cases where the universe of basketball agents, gossip Web sites and AAU hangers-on is overestimating the chances that underclassmen will be first-round NBA draft choices if they declare early. Most of these underclassmen will be better off -- and have higher career earnings -- if they stay in school.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/081028&sportCat=nfl

Shouldn't the NBA protect draft-hopefuls better than this? The age limit is one thing, but I'm sure there's a way the league could give people a better understanding of where they might get drafted, or if they'll get drafted at all. It seems like a contradiction of the age limit to allow so many people to drop out of college to come to the NBA, only to be looking for a job a few years later, with no college education to fall back on.

Couldn't the players association and GMs work out a fair way to help college players better evaluate their chances in the draft?

Thoughts?

JordansBulls
10-28-2008, 02:24 PM
OK, I know TMQ isn't a basketball column, but I thought this was interesting:



http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/081028&sportCat=nfl

Shouldn't the NBA protect draft-hopefuls better than this? The age limit is one thing, but I'm sure there's a way the league could give people a better understanding of where they might get drafted, or if they'll get drafted at all. It seems like a contradiction of the age limit to allow so many people to drop out of college to come to the NBA, only to be looking for a job a few years later, with no college education to fall back on.

Couldn't the players association and GMs work out a fair way to help college players better evaluate their chances in the draft?

Thoughts?

I think when guys stay longer in school they become more impact players as soon as they get into the league. Guys who stay 1 year or who don't even go to school seem to struggle a good 2-3 years before they become that impact player.

I would prefer knowing my #1 pick is a guy who is for sure going to be a star and not a guy I am just hoping to become one.

Kaptain Kanada
10-28-2008, 02:55 PM
I think when guys stay longer in school they become more impact players as soon as they get into the league. Guys who stay 1 year or who don't even go to school seem to struggle a good 2-3 years before they become that impact player.

I would prefer knowing my #1 pick is a guy who is for sure going to be a star and not a guy I am just hoping to become one.



Yeah, talk to us Raptor fans about that one. At least most of these kids go to college... Bargnani is not looking like #1 overall pick these days.

Wilson
10-28-2008, 03:03 PM
This idea was more to help protect the players than the teams (although it would help protect the teams in a way). I just don't think it's fair for the players who go undrafted and then struggle for a living, who have been convinced they're going to get drafted. The NBA should be giving these kids better giudance before they're officially in the league.

IndyRealist
10-28-2008, 03:30 PM
Most of these kids where never cut out for college regardless, they go because the NBA mandates it. They only barely make the grades and get marginal SAT or ACT scores. Additionally at certain big name colleges that shall remain nameless, star athletes barely if ever show up for classes and still recieve passing grades. You don't fail the varisty starting center.

blackjack_119
10-28-2008, 04:07 PM
This idea was more to help protect the players than the teams (although it would help protect the teams in a way). I just don't think it's fair for the players who go undrafted and then struggle for a living, who have been convinced they're going to get drafted. The NBA should be giving these kids better giudance before they're officially in the league.

Sorry if I am totally apathetic to the "plight" of stock falls. I will never shed a tear for Mario Chalmers or DeAndre Jordan. As disappointed as Chalmers was to fall out of the first round, his contract guarantees him $1.47M for a commitment to play basketball for two years. If he stays in college for one more season and earns his degree, but blows out his knee and goes undrafted, how long will it take him to earn the equivalent financial security of his second round salary scale.

As for those who declare early but go undrafted, they are not overly burdened. They simply find themselves in the situation of every other student in this nation. They may have to pick up a summer job to pay for tuition rather than attending college on athletic scholarship. Or they may have to play in the less glamorous leagues like the Spanish, Russian or Italian leagues. Undrafted players can still make a living playing the game outside of the NBA... they just have to apply themselves.

The article doesn't take into account the inherent risk of staying in college. There are two main concerns: 1) Injury. While people can speculate over the monetary fluctuations that can occur by honing your game in college and entering the draft as a developed player, there is no escaping the realization that every prospect is one injury away from never playing the game again.

2) Proper evaluation. While you can say for every Kobe Bryant, there are 100 cautionary tales, there are also dozens of examples of players who made the proper choice (we call them draft busts) each year several early entrants receive huge contracts and never pan out. If these people stayed in college, they likely would never have earned the amount that they did. Where would Kwame Brown have been drafted had he come into the league as a college grad in 2003? No.1 ahead of Lebron? Melo? Wade? Bosh?

We act as if it is a travesty that a player only make $2M when he thought he would make $12M. How can argue with telling an 18 y/o that they should take a guaranteed $1M and put it in the bank... and if the NBA doesn't work out, you will have a nice nest egg to help you determine what you really would like to do in life?

Hellcrooner
10-28-2008, 05:06 PM
put a new rule

guys under 22 cant be drafted higher than 10th pick.

njnets
10-28-2008, 05:35 PM
put a new rule

guys under 22 cant be drafted higher than 10th pick.

that would NEVER work.