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DenButsu
10-26-2008, 02:07 PM
My latest blog (http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/blog.php?b=36):
--------------------------------------

Rebirth: The Second Coming Of Carmelo Anthony

When speculating about upcoming NBA seasons, I've generally tended to play it safe. But it's time for me to break from that humble tradition and boldly predict:

The 2008-09 season will not only be a breakthrough for Carmelo Anthony, it will be the pivotal season of his entire career. At long last, he will arrive. He'll become the player we've all been waiting for.

Why? He has to.

After five consecutive first round playoff exits, numerous reputation damaging on and off court incidents, and a career marked by a general perception that he has fallen significantly short of expectations, Melo's back is against the wall, and his legacy is at stake. He faces a fork in the road in which the right choice leads to genuine superstardom and championships, while the wrong choice leads to the blowup of the Denver Nuggets, and his being known as one of the NBA's historic disappointments.

I think he gets this. Finally. I'm sure he'd say it differently, but all indications are that he knows what's on the line this season.

In the span of just a few months, Carmelo has just lived the life of a phoenix, consumed by fire and reborn from the ashes. This started with his arrest for drunk driving, an embarrassing and inexcusable mishap which brought back all of the old past skeletons and cast them onto the jumbotron in full relief. The timing could not have been worse, as the Nuggets proceeded to face the overwhelmingly strong Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs, where they were promptly and thoroughly trounced. Melo put in his career worst postseason performance, and appeared to add insult to injury by proclaiming that he and the team had quit. From there, however, things rapidly turned around as he rejoined the U.S. Olympic team and played a key role in helping to bring back the gold to America.

Every single account of Anthony's Olympic experience pointed to a new improved attitude. With Dwayne Wade back in full health, and a new offensive design that put LeBron James and Kobe Bryant at the forefront of the starting lineup's attack, Carmelo was asked to step back from his role as a primary shooter (he was the team's leading scorer in the previous summer's FIFA tournament), and focus instead on defense, rebounding, and "the little things" that the supporting cast must bring for effective team play.

Not only did he accept that role, he did it with not one peep of a complaint, and with that famous grin on his face the entire time. He was gushing patriotic. His happiness at playing any part on the team was evident - and, I believe, genuine. And worn on his sleeve for all the world to see, his pride in representing his country and his hometown of Baltimore. But that positive mindset was only half the story.

On the court, he played some pretty great defense, and he was aggressive on the glass. I repeat: Carmelo Anthony played defense and went after the boards. The words we were hearing from him in the press were actually finding their expression in his basketball game. This to me was the first sign of hope that he wasn't going to let the DUI and the playoff failure own his mind. Just maybe, in the best case scenario, they had sparked a reawakening in him, and might now become fuel he could use for motivating himself to get truly focused on his game, to start paying proper attention to the elements of it such as defense that he's neglected for all too long, and perhaps most importantly of all, to become the true leader by example that the Nuggets need him to be.

So that's the dream that we took going into training camp, and now that we've had the opportunity to see how things have gone in camp and in the run of preseason games, how are things looking?

Very, very good. I won't dwell on all his scouting reports and interviews from the preseason, but the short version is that off the court he's been saying all the right things, and on the court he's been a more vocal leader, he's been working hard, communicating with his teammates and (like the rest of the team) entering into a new focus on playing a more intense and defensively oriented style of ball.

But the real proof is in the pudding. Here are some key stats from Melo's preseason outings. I've calculated them per 36.4 minutes, his average from last season, and stacked them against last season's numbers. My point in doing so is not to suggest that these will be his real numbers if he plays 11 additional minutes, but just to show by way of comparison the things he's doing more - and less - than last season. Also, I should just state that I understand this sample size isn't truly significant in terms of what kind of production he's capable of, but I think it's an accurate indication of which areas of his game he's focusing on, of how he's spending his minutes on the court.


MIN FGM A % OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
26 5 12 0.417 1 4 5 3 3 0 1 4 16
24 6 14 0.429 0 9 9 5 2 0 3 2 14
24 6 14 0.429 0 9 9 5 2 0 3 2 14
28 5 9 0.556 1 5 6 6 2 0 2 2 15
23 4 11 0.364 0 6 6 0 1 0 1 2 11
Average 25 5.2 12 0.433 0.4 6.6 7 3.8 2 0 2 2.4 14
Per36.4 36.4 7.57 17.47 0.433 0.58 9.61 10.19 5.53 2.91 0 2.91 3.49 20.38

2007-08 36.4 9.5 19.2 0.492 2.3 5.1 7.4 3.4 1.3 0.5 3.3 3.3 25.7

Difference 0 -1.93 -1.73 -0.059 -1.72 +4.51 +2.79 +2.13 +1.61 -0.5 -0.39 +0.19 -5.32

So what is he doing differently? All the things everybody has always recognized as the things he'd need to start doing in order to lift his game to that higher level:

1. Shooting a little less and passing a lot more, as evidenced by the decrease in field goal attempts and the increase in assists. And in an interesting development, George Karl has actually had Melo spending some time playing as a point forward, but notice that the difference in turnovers is negligible.

2. Being much, much more aggressive on the defensive glass.

3. Playing more aggressive defense, as seen by his impressive steal numbers, while at the same time doing so efficiently, with a negligible difference in fouls.

4. Intangibles. Leadership. Doing the little things better. These things of course don't show up in the stats, but as they did in training camp, they are also happening on the court in real game action.


Carmelo seems to be genuinely focused this season, and to be more serious than I've ever seen him before about truly stepping up his game and assuming the responsibility of being the team's leader. I think he means it this time, although it's understandable that many of you will remain skeptical. I admit, my optimism is tentative - but it's real.

So, these are the reasons I'm making my prediction, and I'll stand by it (and, I'm sure, eat crow if it doesn't come to pass):

This is the season when Melo will elevate his game from that of a star to that of a superstar, and by season's end, he will be widely recognized as a top 10 player in the league.

DenButsu
10-27-2008, 04:47 AM
:bump:

arlubas
10-27-2008, 04:56 AM
I don't think Melo can have a breakthrough season mainly for the fact that he has had great numbers throughout his career so a breakthrough would be for him to average 40 pts and 18 rebounds which ain't happening. With that said however there are some parts of his game in which he could develop and those parts involve some mental maturing which Melo is supposed to have had this summer. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

DenButsu
10-27-2008, 05:05 AM
I don't think Melo can have a breakthrough season mainly for the fact that he has had great numbers throughout his career so a breakthrough would be for him to average 40 pts and 18 rebounds which ain't happening. With that said however there are some parts of his game in which he could develop and those parts involve some mental maturing which Melo is supposed to have had this summer. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I guess I should have been more specific in framing the question (although that's hard to do in the space of a poll :cool: ). But if you read my blog I think you'll see that by "breakthrough" I don't really mean in the traditional sense of going from 12 to 18 ppg or something as easily measurable as that. What I really mean, first and foremost, is that he'll become a more complete player, key components of which are a) playing good defense, b) focusing more on defensive rebounding (and being effective at it), and c) becoming a player who is more of a team leader and who also has a hand in making his teammates better (which is where assists factor in).

So only two of those three points can really be measured statistically, but the type of breakthrough I'm envisioning is really even less tangible than that. And also, scoring at the same or even a slightly lesser rate would be perfectly acceptable, provided that inversely he's helping others on his team to score more.

arlubas
10-27-2008, 05:20 AM
I guess I should have been more specific in framing the question (although that's hard to do in the space of a poll :cool: ). But if you read my blog I think you'll see that by "breakthrough" I don't really mean in the traditional sense of going from 12 to 18 ppg or something as easily measurable as that. What I really mean, first and foremost, is that he'll become a more complete player, key components of which are a) playing good defense, b) focusing more on defensive rebounding (and being effective at it), and c) becoming a player who is more of a team leader and who also has a hand in making his teammates better (which is where assists factor in).

So only two of those three points can really be measured statistically, but the type of breakthrough I'm envisioning is really even less tangible than that. And also, scoring at the same or even a slightly lesser rate would be perfectly acceptable, provided that inversely he's helping others on his team to score more.
Yeah I understood from your piece that was what you were aiming at but usually a "breakthrough" season is identified by a significant boost in individual numbers. A more appropriate title would've been "Is Carmelo ready to become a true leader this season?" or something along those lines cause I think that is what you are getting at anyway with this.

DenButsu
10-27-2008, 05:54 AM
Yeah I understood from your piece that was what you were aiming at but usually a "breakthrough" season is identified by a significant boost in individual numbers. A more appropriate title would've been "Is Carmelo ready to become a true leader this season?" or something along those lines cause I think that is what you are getting at anyway with this.

Actually, if Melo becomes more of a true leader for his team and more of a true superstar, it will indeed be a "breakthrough" for him in the truest definition of the word.

Not to nitpick English with you, or anything. :cool:

arlubas
10-27-2008, 06:06 AM
Actually, if Melo becomes more of a true leader for his team and more of a true superstar, it will indeed be a "breakthrough" for him in the truest definition of the word.

Not to nitpick English with you, or anything. :cool:

Haha well if there's anyone that can nitpick english DB that's you. :p

sp1derm00
10-27-2008, 06:40 AM
It's preseason...

Kobe averages about the same number of steals this preseason as he does in the regular season in far less minutes. Taken far less shots, and not frequently at all. Lets others on the team try and make plays while he does make some sometimes.

We could say Kobe has dropped his primary option tag on the Lakers and taken his Olympic role as a defender and not a primary scorer... but it's just not true.

We know that once the regular season hits, Kobe is gonna be Kobe. Melo is gonna be Melo.

DenButsu
10-27-2008, 06:53 AM
It's preseason...

Kobe averages about the same number of steals this preseason as he does in the regular season in far less minutes. Taken far less shots, and not frequently at all. Lets others on the team try and make plays while he does make some sometimes.

We could say Kobe has dropped his primary option tag on the Lakers and taken his Olympic role as a defender and not a primary scorer... but it's just not true.

We know that once the regular season hits, Kobe is gonna be Kobe. Melo is gonna be Melo.

I understand your point, and that's why I went out of my way in my blog to specifically say that I'm not trying to extrapolate these preseason numbers to suggest they can directly translate into his regular season numbers. I'm only using them to demonstrate that he has been, in fact, playing differently. I'm really not even trying to make the case that in the preseason he's been playing better. What I am saying, though, is that he's focusing on elements of his game that he really does need to pay more attention to, and that that is a reflection of a new, more serious intent to play a more complete style of basketball and, yes, to be more of a team leader. And while of course I could be wrong, I do think it will pay off in big dividends.

I'm not trying to focus on Melo's statistical production, I'm trying to use it to illustrate his shift in how he's applying his energies on the court. And even that is just part of the reason why I think he'll transcend his previous level of play.

BkOriginalOne
10-27-2008, 07:27 AM
I think he will improve, because like you said, he just HAS to.

These are his numbers from last season.
25.7ppg 7.4rpg 3.4apg 1.3 spg 0.5 bpg.

This is what the nuggets lose from Marcus Camby
9.1ppg 13.3rpg 3.3apg 1.1spg 3.6 bpg (34.9 mpg)

These numbers, especially the rebounds have to go somewhere. Nene and Kmart will get some, sure, but don't expect their rebound numbers to jump by 6 boards. With that, melo can grab at at least an extra 3-4 boards a game.

This season, in order for melo to be considered to have a breakout, look for him to get something like

28.0ppg 9.8 rpg 4.5 apg 1.7spg 0.8 bpg

Allen Iverson will fall back to second option, and more board for melo equal more points and more trips to the line.
In theory, all Karl has to say to Melo is "Hey, get me 3 more boards, 2 more dimes, 1 more block and 1 more steal a game" His numbers will look like that if he tries to come close to that.
He can do it!

michaellui11
10-27-2008, 08:57 AM
go home melo
ai will have much better stats than u

CELTICS4LYFE
10-27-2008, 10:12 AM
ummm what exactly would b him steppin up his game??? 40 ppg??? lol :confused:

DenButsu
10-27-2008, 10:17 AM
This is what the nuggets lose from Marcus Camby

That entire point is very good, and also gets into the chicken or egg question about his defense. Conventional wisdom holds that the Denver D will suffer for his departure, and it's probably safe to say that our blocks and rebounding will in fact take a hit. But another way of looking at it is that Camby enabled lazy defense (eman made this point in the Nuggets forum just now) especially on the perimeter, since they knew if guys got past there was a last line of protection there. Now, not only will they have to play it a little more honest, but also with Camby replaced by Nene - who unlike him is a legitimate post defender - it should facilitate better defensive rotations since they'll no longer be defending 5 with 4. All of which is to say that if ever Melo was going to prove he can be a capable defender - and he's showing the willingness to do so - now is the opportune moment.

kswissdaf
10-27-2008, 11:31 AM
he already is a star

DenButsu
10-27-2008, 11:45 AM
he already is a star

True, but most NBA fans wouldn't put him in their top 10 lists right now. That's the kind of progression I'm talking about - breaking into the elite ranks.

JordansBulls
10-27-2008, 12:12 PM
My latest blog (http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/blog.php?b=36):
--------------------------------------

Rebirth: The Second Coming Of Carmelo Anthony

When speculating about upcoming NBA seasons, I've generally tended to play it safe. But it's time for me to break from that humble tradition and boldly predict:

The 2008-09 season will not only be a breakthrough for Carmelo Anthony, it will be the pivotal season of his entire career. At long last, he will arrive. He'll become the player we've all been waiting for.

Why? He has to.

After five consecutive first round playoff exits, numerous reputation damaging on and off court incidents, and a career marked by a general perception that he has fallen significantly short of expectations, Melo's back is against the wall, and his legacy is at stake. He faces a fork in the road in which the right choice leads to genuine superstardom and championships, while the wrong choice leads to the blowup of the Denver Nuggets, and his being known as one of the NBA's historic disappointments.

I think he gets this. Finally. I'm sure he'd say it differently, but all indications are that he knows what's on the line this season.

In the span of just a few months, Carmelo has just lived the life of a phoenix, consumed by fire and reborn from the ashes. This started with his arrest for drunk driving, an embarrassing and inexcusable mishap which brought back all of the old past skeletons and cast them onto the jumbotron in full relief. The timing could not have been worse, as the Nuggets proceeded to face the overwhelmingly strong Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs, where they were promptly and thoroughly trounced. Melo put in his career worst postseason performance, and appeared to add insult to injury by proclaiming that he and the team had quit. From there, however, things rapidly turned around as he rejoined the U.S. Olympic team and played a key role in helping to bring back the gold to America.

Every single account of Anthony's Olympic experience pointed to a new improved attitude. With Dwayne Wade back in full health, and a new offensive design that put LeBron James and Kobe Bryant at the forefront of the starting lineup's attack, Carmelo was asked to step back from his role as a primary shooter (he was the team's leading scorer in the previous summer's FIFA tournament), and focus instead on defense, rebounding, and "the little things" that the supporting cast must bring for effective team play.

Not only did he accept that role, he did it with not one peep of a complaint, and with that famous grin on his face the entire time. He was gushing patriotic. His happiness at playing any part on the team was evident - and, I believe, genuine. And worn on his sleeve for all the world to see, his pride in representing his country and his hometown of Baltimore. But that positive mindset was only half the story.

On the court, he played some pretty great defense, and he was aggressive on the glass. I repeat: Carmelo Anthony played defense and went after the boards. The words we were hearing from him in the press were actually finding their expression in his basketball game. This to me was the first sign of hope that he wasn't going to let the DUI and the playoff failure own his mind. Just maybe, in the best case scenario, they had sparked a reawakening in him, and might now become fuel he could use for motivating himself to get truly focused on his game, to start paying proper attention to the elements of it such as defense that he's neglected for all too long, and perhaps most importantly of all, to become the true leader by example that the Nuggets need him to be.

So that's the dream that we took going into training camp, and now that we've had the opportunity to see how things have gone in camp and in the run of preseason games, how are things looking?

Very, very good. I won't dwell on all his scouting reports and interviews from the preseason, but the short version is that off the court he's been saying all the right things, and on the court he's been a more vocal leader, he's been working hard, communicating with his teammates and (like the rest of the team) entering into a new focus on playing a more intense and defensively oriented style of ball.

But the real proof is in the pudding. Here are some key stats from Melo's preseason outings. I've calculated them per 36.4 minutes, his average from last season, and stacked them against last season's numbers. My point in doing so is not to suggest that these will be his real numbers if he plays 11 additional minutes, but just to show by way of comparison the things he's doing more - and less - than last season. Also, I should just state that I understand this sample size isn't truly significant in terms of what kind of production he's capable of, but I think it's an accurate indication of which areas of his game he's focusing on, of how he's spending his minutes on the court.


MIN FGM A % OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
26 5 12 0.417 1 4 5 3 3 0 1 4 16
24 6 14 0.429 0 9 9 5 2 0 3 2 14
24 6 14 0.429 0 9 9 5 2 0 3 2 14
28 5 9 0.556 1 5 6 6 2 0 2 2 15
23 4 11 0.364 0 6 6 0 1 0 1 2 11
Average 25 5.2 12 0.433 0.4 6.6 7 3.8 2 0 2 2.4 14
Per36.4 36.4 7.57 17.47 0.433 0.58 9.61 10.19 5.53 2.91 0 2.91 3.49 20.38

2007-08 36.4 9.5 19.2 0.492 2.3 5.1 7.4 3.4 1.3 0.5 3.3 3.3 25.7

Difference 0 -1.93 -1.73 -0.059 -1.72 +4.51 +2.79 +2.13 +1.61 -0.5 -0.39 +0.19 -5.32

So what is he doing differently? All the things everybody has always recognized as the things he'd need to start doing in order to lift his game to that higher level:

1. Shooting a little less and passing a lot more, as evidenced by the decrease in field goal attempts and the increase in assists. And in an interesting development, George Karl has actually had Melo spending some time playing as a point forward, but notice that the difference in turnovers is negligible.

2. Being much, much more aggressive on the defensive glass.

3. Playing more aggressive defense, as seen by his impressive steal numbers, while at the same time doing so efficiently, with a negligible difference in fouls.

4. Intangibles. Leadership. Doing the little things better. These things of course don't show up in the stats, but as they did in training camp, they are also happening on the court in real game action.


Carmelo seems to be genuinely focused this season, and to be more serious than I've ever seen him before about truly stepping up his game and assuming the responsibility of being the team's leader. I think he means it this time, although it's understandable that many of you will remain skeptical. I admit, my optimism is tentative - but it's real.

So, these are the reasons I'm making my prediction, and I'll stand by it (and, I'm sure, eat crow if it doesn't come to pass):

This is the season when Melo will elevate his game from that of a star to that of a superstar, and by season's end, he will be widely recognized as a top 10 player in the league.

Believe it or not in 2006-2007 before the 15 game suspension Carmelo was actually playing slightly better than Lebron. However once he came back he came back he wasn't as effective anymore.

DenButsu
10-27-2008, 12:39 PM
Believe it or not in 2006-2007 before the 15 game suspension Carmelo was actually playing slightly better than Lebron. However once he came back he came back he wasn't as effective anymore.

Which would lead us to... why did that happen? And can he recover that previous form and it potential and carry it forward?

superkegger
10-27-2008, 12:44 PM
I would love to think so, and I've read your arguments as to why the nuggets will be better this season than before, but I just don't see, with the pieces around Melo, that he can lead them to anything great. Could he become a better leader, teammate and player, better defensively, yes, but with the West as tough as it is, and the nuggets looking, um, different, I don't see them headed to anything but a first round exit. And if that is the case, it would be hard to label it as a breakout season if they get bumped in the 1st round.
I'd love to be wrong, cause I'm a Melo fan, but I just don't think he and AI can coexist. It just doesn't work.

UofA
10-27-2008, 01:05 PM
not this year

b_rad23
10-27-2008, 01:17 PM
I think he can break into the elite ranks but the Nuggets won't be elite.

SUNDUNDIDIT
10-27-2008, 01:24 PM
I would love to think so, and I've read your arguments as to why the nuggets will be better this season than before, but I just don't see, with the pieces around Melo, that he can lead them to anything great. Could he become a better leader, teammate and player, better defensively, yes, but with the West as tough as it is, and the nuggets looking, um, different, I don't see them headed to anything but a first round exit. And if that is the case, it would be hard to label it as a breakout season if they get bumped in the 1st round.
I'd love to be wrong, cause I'm a Melo fan, but I just don't think he and AI can coexist. It just doesn't work.



Regardless...Nuggets will be better this year, then they have been all decade...Mark my words...NENE is a more complete center then Camby,[if only he doesn't get injured], and balkman and anderson add on a defense we didn't have last year....Now will nuggets be a championship contender team???? No, but we are definately a playoff team...And I if we get a better PG, then anything can happen. Bet.

JOSETHEALLSTAR
10-27-2008, 01:32 PM
Yes, he's finally ready, willing and able to take his game to the next level.

BkOriginalOne
10-27-2008, 01:41 PM
Regardless...Nuggets will be better this year, then they have been all decade...Mark my words.

Saying that the nuggets will be better than all decade is not saying much at all.
The real question is: Will the nuggets improve on their 50-32 season. Thats the marker for how well they will be doing. Can they do better? Thats the tough question to answer. With camby, everyone can say, why not?

I'll go out on a limb and say they'll be 52-30.
Assuming Melo gets, 28,9,4.5
and AI can throw up 25 and 9 dimes
And if Jr smith adds an extra 18-20 points
Everyone else just defend and get out of the way!

SUNDUNDIDIT
10-27-2008, 01:52 PM
Saying that the nuggets will be better than all decade is not saying much at all.
The real question is: Will the nuggets improve on their 50-32 season. Thats the marker for how well they will be doing. Can they do better? Thats the tough question to answer. With camby, everyone can say, why not?

I'll go out on a limb and say they'll be 52-30.
Assuming Melo gets, 28,9,4.5
and AI can throw up 25 and 9 dimes
And if Jr smith adds an extra 18-20 points
Everyone else just defend and get out of the way!


SMH...Me saying "Nuggets will be better this year, then they have been all decade", is implying that nobody can confidentially assume we wont make the playoffs....We still have an adequate line up, and a determination to improve on everything critics criticize....Just because the nuggets are going to be better then they have for years, doesn't result in a better record...Because other teams may have gotten better also.....Whether if the improvement of the nuggets will adjust to how other teams improved, is all speculation.....By i'm not speculating...Nuggets will be a playoff team this year..Period.

DreamShaker
10-27-2008, 02:23 PM
I understand your intentions and I fully agree....Melo has always come up short and had a career drenched in frustration....being drafted 3rd when he fully expected to be drafted first or second....leading his team to the playoffs in his rookie year and putting up great numbers just to be runner-up to Lebron....the 04 Olympics fiasco....getting dominated in the post season while watching Wade and Lebron leading their teams to the Finals....the stop snitching tapes....the DUI....the fight and suspension....but this summer something FINALLY went right for his pro career (after of course leading his team to a national title in college) by winning a gold medal and he did it by playing the right way....if he can channel that energy and selflessness this season the guy could become a top 10 player in this league....

sp1derm00
10-27-2008, 03:29 PM
After thinking about it...

I think both MJ and Kobe have acknowledged Melo as having great fundamentals and being an extremely talented player. LBJ and Wade both rely entirely too much on their athleticism and aren't as fundamentally sound as Melo is.

I think it's entirely possible that Melo could develop into a better player than Lebron and Wade because of this. MJ and Kobe both are/were fundamentally sound when coming into the NBA... then they accumulated more and more NBA experienced and became the players they became. MJ used less of his athleticism as his career progressed and became a better player for it. The same could be said about Kobe.

Lebron and Wade, as good as they are... are likely to peek early. MJ and Kobe's 30 is like their 26/27 because they don't have the fundamentals... they will start to accumulate injuries and lose some of their athleticism whereas Melo could become a better, wiser player over time.

BkOriginalOne
10-27-2008, 04:01 PM
SMH...Me saying "Nuggets will be better this year, then they have been all decade", is implying that nobody can confidentially assume we wont make the playoffs....

Is that really what that statement means?
We will be better than we have been in the past 8 years = nobody can confidentially say that they won't make the playoffs?

Is anyone else seeing this, or is just me?

a team can have a record of about 20-62 for those years, and you say that statement, they will be better than they have been all decade. Thats supposed to mean that nobody can say they won't make the playoffs?

Nevermind.
I think it's problematic to define a breakout year for melo in terms of numbers. He can defiitely become a more efficeint player, better defender, better passer, and more pronounced leader. His numbers can do much breaking out, but i think that he will at least get about 9rpg, and thats a nice stepg up. Add 4.5 apg and thats looks like a nice improvement as well.
As far as him having a breakout year, his character can certainly have a breakout.
I honestly think that if Melo gets number like I listed above (28,9,4.5) the nuggets can make the playoffs. The hardest part is avoiding the lakers and the spurs. The easiest way to do that is to win the NW division. Which is not all that impossible if they play better and get some wins within that division.

futureheisman
10-27-2008, 04:16 PM
exactly 40 18 and 12 what is a breakout year in your mind

BkOriginalOne
10-27-2008, 04:22 PM
A breakout year for melo to me is:
28ppg 9.8rpg, 4.5apg 1.7spg 1.0bpg shooting about .520 from the floor
38% on threes with about 1.5 made a game. 8-9 trips to the line a game, shooting about 82% from the line.
And the nuggets getting over 50 wins. MVP talk, all star nod, and all nba 1st team selection (2nd team is understadable though)
Sounds about right.

THE MTL
10-27-2008, 04:32 PM
What? A breakthrough year for Melo? Last time I checked he averaged 26pts and 7.5 rebounds and in the playoffs he averaged 23pts and 9.5 rebs. And wait he even shoots 50%. And Melo is a 2-time allstar and all-nba team member.

Please tell me what a breakthrough year is?????
Does the guy need to average 35pts 14rebs??????

_Sn1P3r_
10-27-2008, 04:42 PM
He's got the offense now the D has to come in. I definitely think he can breakthrough this year. All about his work ethic.

Chronz
10-27-2008, 04:47 PM
He can but honestly Id rather see Melo play the same way just increase his scoring effectiveness, with that alone teams will pay more attention to him and try to take the ball out of his hands and thats how he could involve his teammates. I dont like him as facilitator of the offense, hes never seemed like a top of the key type player to me. He could probably do it, but it may take away from his own game.

As far as rebounding and defense, he will have to improve if hes to be an elite player. Not so much his rebounding since hes already a monster there.

And finally, the true marker of an elite player is to raise your game come playoff time. Id like to see Melo dominate the playoffs, he was the single biggest playoff disappointment outside of Josh Howard last year, in fact I dont think any star has struggled as much as Anthony has adjusting to the extra defensive pressure seen in the playoffs






What? A breakthrough year for Melo? Last time I checked he averaged 26pts and 7.5 rebounds and in the playoffs he averaged 23pts and 9.5 rebs. And wait he even shoots 50%. And Melo is a 2-time allstar and all-nba team member.

Please tell me what a breakthrough year is?????
Does the guy need to average 35pts 14rebs??????

Read the first post please...

SUNDUNDIDIT
10-27-2008, 04:52 PM
Is that really what that statement means?
We will be better than we have been in the past 8 years = nobody can confidentially say that they won't make the playoffs?

Is anyone else seeing this, or is just me?

a team can have a record of about 20-62 for those years, and you say that statement, they will be better than they have been all decade. Thats supposed to mean that nobody can say they won't make the playoffs?


So the nuggets have been 20-62 every year since 2000???? Fu#$ outta here...


I'm saying we are better then the past Nugget teams that have been knocked out the 1st round of the playoffs the past couple of years, plus the other Nugget teams since 2000....Your making rocket science out of an elementary equation..Is it really that hard to comprehend??? Do math.

Lakersfan2483
10-27-2008, 04:53 PM
My latest blog (http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/blog.php?b=36):
--------------------------------------

Rebirth: The Second Coming Of Carmelo Anthony

When speculating about upcoming NBA seasons, I've generally tended to play it safe. But it's time for me to break from that humble tradition and boldly predict:

The 2008-09 season will not only be a breakthrough for Carmelo Anthony, it will be the pivotal season of his entire career. At long last, he will arrive. He'll become the player we've all been waiting for.

Why? He has to.

After five consecutive first round playoff exits, numerous reputation damaging on and off court incidents, and a career marked by a general perception that he has fallen significantly short of expectations, Melo's back is against the wall, and his legacy is at stake. He faces a fork in the road in which the right choice leads to genuine superstardom and championships, while the wrong choice leads to the blowup of the Denver Nuggets, and his being known as one of the NBA's historic disappointments.

I think he gets this. Finally. I'm sure he'd say it differently, but all indications are that he knows what's on the line this season.

In the span of just a few months, Carmelo has just lived the life of a phoenix, consumed by fire and reborn from the ashes. This started with his arrest for drunk driving, an embarrassing and inexcusable mishap which brought back all of the old past skeletons and cast them onto the jumbotron in full relief. The timing could not have been worse, as the Nuggets proceeded to face the overwhelmingly strong Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs, where they were promptly and thoroughly trounced. Melo put in his career worst postseason performance, and appeared to add insult to injury by proclaiming that he and the team had quit. From there, however, things rapidly turned around as he rejoined the U.S. Olympic team and played a key role in helping to bring back the gold to America.

Every single account of Anthony's Olympic experience pointed to a new improved attitude. With Dwayne Wade back in full health, and a new offensive design that put LeBron James and Kobe Bryant at the forefront of the starting lineup's attack, Carmelo was asked to step back from his role as a primary shooter (he was the team's leading scorer in the previous summer's FIFA tournament), and focus instead on defense, rebounding, and "the little things" that the supporting cast must bring for effective team play.

Not only did he accept that role, he did it with not one peep of a complaint, and with that famous grin on his face the entire time. He was gushing patriotic. His happiness at playing any part on the team was evident - and, I believe, genuine. And worn on his sleeve for all the world to see, his pride in representing his country and his hometown of Baltimore. But that positive mindset was only half the story.

On the court, he played some pretty great defense, and he was aggressive on the glass. I repeat: Carmelo Anthony played defense and went after the boards. The words we were hearing from him in the press were actually finding their expression in his basketball game. This to me was the first sign of hope that he wasn't going to let the DUI and the playoff failure own his mind. Just maybe, in the best case scenario, they had sparked a reawakening in him, and might now become fuel he could use for motivating himself to get truly focused on his game, to start paying proper attention to the elements of it such as defense that he's neglected for all too long, and perhaps most importantly of all, to become the true leader by example that the Nuggets need him to be.

So that's the dream that we took going into training camp, and now that we've had the opportunity to see how things have gone in camp and in the run of preseason games, how are things looking?

Very, very good. I won't dwell on all his scouting reports and interviews from the preseason, but the short version is that off the court he's been saying all the right things, and on the court he's been a more vocal leader, he's been working hard, communicating with his teammates and (like the rest of the team) entering into a new focus on playing a more intense and defensively oriented style of ball.

But the real proof is in the pudding. Here are some key stats from Melo's preseason outings. I've calculated them per 36.4 minutes, his average from last season, and stacked them against last season's numbers. My point in doing so is not to suggest that these will be his real numbers if he plays 11 additional minutes, but just to show by way of comparison the things he's doing more - and less - than last season. Also, I should just state that I understand this sample size isn't truly significant in terms of what kind of production he's capable of, but I think it's an accurate indication of which areas of his game he's focusing on, of how he's spending his minutes on the court.


MIN FGM A % OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
26 5 12 0.417 1 4 5 3 3 0 1 4 16
24 6 14 0.429 0 9 9 5 2 0 3 2 14
24 6 14 0.429 0 9 9 5 2 0 3 2 14
28 5 9 0.556 1 5 6 6 2 0 2 2 15
23 4 11 0.364 0 6 6 0 1 0 1 2 11
Average 25 5.2 12 0.433 0.4 6.6 7 3.8 2 0 2 2.4 14
Per36.4 36.4 7.57 17.47 0.433 0.58 9.61 10.19 5.53 2.91 0 2.91 3.49 20.38

2007-08 36.4 9.5 19.2 0.492 2.3 5.1 7.4 3.4 1.3 0.5 3.3 3.3 25.7

Difference 0 -1.93 -1.73 -0.059 -1.72 +4.51 +2.79 +2.13 +1.61 -0.5 -0.39 +0.19 -5.32

So what is he doing differently? All the things everybody has always recognized as the things he'd need to start doing in order to lift his game to that higher level:

1. Shooting a little less and passing a lot more, as evidenced by the decrease in field goal attempts and the increase in assists. And in an interesting development, George Karl has actually had Melo spending some time playing as a point forward, but notice that the difference in turnovers is negligible.

2. Being much, much more aggressive on the defensive glass.

3. Playing more aggressive defense, as seen by his impressive steal numbers, while at the same time doing so efficiently, with a negligible difference in fouls.

4. Intangibles. Leadership. Doing the little things better. These things of course don't show up in the stats, but as they did in training camp, they are also happening on the court in real game action.


Carmelo seems to be genuinely focused this season, and to be more serious than I've ever seen him before about truly stepping up his game and assuming the responsibility of being the team's leader. I think he means it this time, although it's understandable that many of you will remain skeptical. I admit, my optimism is tentative - but it's real.

So, these are the reasons I'm making my prediction, and I'll stand by it (and, I'm sure, eat crow if it doesn't come to pass):

This is the season when Melo will elevate his game from that of a star to that of a superstar, and by season's end, he will be widely recognized as a top 10 player in the league.

Good thread and write up.

In regards to Melo, he has the talent to be an elite player, but in order for him to go to the next level, he has to make others around him play better. He has to impact the game more in terms of taking over a game during crunch time.

After getting the opportunity to play with guys like Kobe, Lebron, and CP3, I think Melo was able to observe how impactful each guys was in terms of putting team success over personal success. If Carmelo is willing to create more for his teammates and make the committment to play sound defense, he can be a top ten player in the league. He also must take an active role as the leader of the Nuggets' team. I think Melo will have a better year this season, but I don't think they have solved their issues on defense.

Lakersfan2483
10-27-2008, 05:01 PM
He can but honestly Id rather see Melo play the same way just increase his scoring effectiveness, with that alone teams will pay more attention to him and try to take the ball out of his hands and thats how he could involve his teammates. I dont like him as facilitator of the offense, hes never seemed like a top of the key type player to me. He could probably do it, but it may take away from his own game.

As far as rebounding and defense, he will have to improve if hes to be an elite player. Not so much his rebounding since hes already a monster there.

And finally, the true marker of an elite player is to raise your game come playoff time. Id like to see Melo dominate the playoffs, he was the single biggest playoff disappointment outside of Josh Howard last year.






Read the first post please...



Good post.

BkOriginalOne
10-27-2008, 05:04 PM
So the nuggets have been 20-62 every year since 2000???? Fu#$ outta here...


I'm saying we are better then the past Nugget teams that have been knocked out the 1st round of the playoffs the past couple of years, plus the other Nugget teams since 2000....Your making rocket science out of an elementary equation..Is it really that hard to comprehend??? Do math.

What part of my post refers to the nuggets going 20-62? I beleive I said "A TEAM" Do some Math, Do some reading!

its just not saying much to say that the nuggets will be better than they have been in the whole decade:
2000-01 40 42 .489
2001-02 27 55 .329
2002-03 17 65 .207
2003-04 43 39 .529 Lost First Round Minnesota 4, Denver 1
2004-05 49 33 .598 Lost First Round San Antonio 4, Denver 1
2005-06 44 38 .537 Lost First Round LA Clippers 4, Denver 1
2006-07 45 37 .543 Lost First Round San Antonio 4, Denver 1
2007-08 50 32 .610 Lost First Round LA Lakers 4, Denver 0

You're saying that they will be better than they have been all decade, which just means they have to win 51 games. or maybe win more than 1 playoff game. You have to see that.
Saying that they will be better then they have been in the past decade doesn't even equal a playoff spot. Techincally, they could win 51 games and the west could be SUPER competitive and that wouldn't even garner a playoff spot. NOTE: That is a hypothetical statement - I know how you like to blow simple anaolgies out of the water.

Can anyone else not agree with me here? Damn! HAHA

Melo's Breakout year is all about defense and leadership. Period.

SUNDUNDIDIT
10-27-2008, 05:11 PM
What part of my post refers to the nuggets going 20-62? I beleive I said "A TEAM" Do some Math, Do some reading!

its just not saying much to say that the nuggets will be better than they have been in the whole decade:
2000-01 40 42 .489
2001-02 27 55 .329
2002-03 17 65 .207
2003-04 43 39 .529 Lost First Round Minnesota 4, Denver 1
2004-05 49 33 .598 Lost First Round San Antonio 4, Denver 1
2005-06 44 38 .537 Lost First Round LA Clippers 4, Denver 1
2006-07 45 37 .543 Lost First Round San Antonio 4, Denver 1
2007-08 50 32 .610 Lost First Round LA Lakers 4, Denver 0

You're saying that they will be better than they have been all decade, which just means they have to win 51 games. or maybe win more than 1 playoff game. You have to see that.
Saying that they will be better then they have been in the past decade doesn't even equal a playoff spot. Techincally, they could win 51 games and the west could be SUPER competitive and that wouldn't even garner a playoff sport. NOTE: That is a hypothetical statement - I know how you like to blow simple anaolgies out of the water.

Can anyone else not agree with me here? Damn! HAHA

Melo's Breakout year is all about defense and leadership. Period.



My dude, you tried using your ignorant example of "20-62" team, against my point for the nuggets.....I can't do math or read your posts, because it doesn't add up, and doesn't make sense...

Nuggets are better then last years team....They got more defense,and a MORE well rounded center, as long as he stays healthy.....Records don't have nothing to do with it, because anything can change....But in order for Portland or Clippers to beat us out for a playoff spot, they would have to be better then what the nuggets were in the last decade, and that means last years team....Again, you mAking rocket science outta a elementary equation, and thats why nobodys agreein or cosiginin your ignorance.

BkOriginalOne
10-27-2008, 05:17 PM
I can't deal with incompetence.
It simply pisses me off

DenButsu
10-27-2008, 11:57 PM
Bk, SUN, you both think the Nuggets are going to be better this year, and you're both fans. Stop sniping at each other, por favor. Thanks.

pauljames
10-28-2008, 12:47 AM
i think he will the year after next. Once AI is gone. He will become a superstar. Melo/JR Smith is gonna be so dope.

dre1990
10-28-2008, 12:56 AM
he can be 2nd teamer and maybe take his team out of the 1st round

Lebron23
10-28-2008, 01:05 AM
He's one of the best scorers in the game. Melo just needs to improve his man to man defense.

Chronz
10-28-2008, 03:00 AM
He's one of the best scorers in the game. Melo just needs to improve his man to man defense.

If he only improve his man to man defense it wont be enough to be a truly elite player man. He has alot of areas in which to improve offensively.

mrblisterdundee
10-28-2008, 12:04 PM
He can have a defensive breakthrough to go along with his offensive dominance, but the Nuggets are still going to need more talent so they don't squander Anthony and Iverson's talents.

DenButsu
10-28-2008, 07:16 PM
He can have a defensive breakthrough to go along with his offensive dominance, but the Nuggets are still going to need more talent so they don't squander Anthony and Iverson's talents.

All we really lack at this point is a better point guard. I think people have been so laser focused on the Camby thing that they haven't noticed we actually have pretty solid depth in the frontcourt now: K-Mart, Nene, Klieza, Juwon, Birdman, Balkman, Hunter... and of course AI-JR-Melo have that 2-3 more than well covered. It's the damn pg position that we still are hurting in. But that alone. (If Chucky ever gets healthy, he may be able to be a real contributor, but since he's been injured ever since picking him up, we have yet to find out).