PDA

View Full Version : Free Agent Pitchers



djohn2oo8
10-20-2008, 04:59 PM
If we don't get Peavy, who would you want out of the list:

Starting pitchers
Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season
Paul Byrd (38)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33)
Bartolo Colon (36)
Ryan Dempster (32)
Shawn Estes (36)
Josh Fogg (32)
Freddy Garcia (33)
Jon Garland (29)
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Jon Lieber (39)
Braden Looper (34)
Rodrigo Lopez (33) - club option for '09
Derek Lowe (36)
Greg Maddux (43)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Sergio Mitre (28)
Jamie Moyer (46)
Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout
Mike Mussina (40)
Carl Pavano (33) - $13MM club option for '09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Sidney Ponson (32)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
Glendon Rusch (34)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30)
John Smoltz (42)
Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option
Kip Wells (32)
Randy Wolf (32)

lilboytwister99
10-20-2008, 06:29 PM
Randy Wolf would be alright. Im guessing we might go for AJ Burnett or Ben Sheets. I still like Jon Garland though.

lawphin2
10-20-2008, 07:00 PM
Randy Wolf would be alright. Im guessing we might go for AJ Burnett or Ben Sheets. I still like Jon Garland though.

same here. Looper was good for the Cards, maybe add him as a 4th or 5th starter

yao pwns noobs
10-23-2008, 03:32 AM
C.C. Sabathia would be by far the best. btw no chance Roger Clemens comes back now ahahah

RelaxedFan
10-23-2008, 09:27 AM
Signing multiple FA SP scares me. Last year, San Diego brought in Wolfe, Prior and Maddux and that did not turn out well for them.

Signing Wolfe makes since because he was successful here and won't cost us a draft pick. The next SP needs to be obtained via trade. I still hope, pray and wish the Astros find a way to obtain Peavy.

Lastly, I'm a fan of signing at least one "low price, high risk, high reward SP". My top three (3) are Prior, Mulder and Hampton.

djohn2oo8
10-23-2008, 03:41 PM
I read that The braves dont want to trade their prospects and that the cardinals are out of the race for peavy. Our chances might be better.

Conquest8089
10-23-2008, 06:09 PM
I think AJ Burnett should be considered. The problem is he'll command a hefty price seeing as the Yankees are interested in him.

Trade is a great route to go. Don't have to forfeit a draft pick and can get a guy under contract. Edwin Jackson from Tampa Bay makes sense for a middle of the rotation guy.

rhino17
10-23-2008, 06:18 PM
I think they should go for Jon Garland and AJ Burnett

Wizard of O's
10-26-2008, 03:17 PM
Jon Garland and Derek Lowe

native_astro
10-27-2008, 11:53 PM
AJ Burnett and Randy Johnson(1yr deal)

Jermster
10-30-2008, 07:15 PM
The only thing about signing AJ Burnett if he opted out, would be that the Astros would lose their 1st Round Pick.

Here is the 2009 Free Agent Starters and their Type A/B Rankings:

Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season - Type A
Paul Byrd (38) - Type B
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33)
Bartolo Colon (36)
Ryan Dempster (32) - Type A
Shawn Estes (36)
Josh Fogg (32)
Freddy Garcia (33)
Jon Garland (29) - Type B
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
Jon Lieber (39)
Braden Looper (34) - Type B
Rodrigo Lopez (33) - club option for '09
Derek Lowe (36) - Type A
Greg Maddux (43) - Type B
Pedro Martinez (37)
Sergio Mitre (28)
Jamie Moyer (46) - Type A
Mark Mulder (31)
Mike Mussina (40) - Type A
Carl Pavano (33) - $13MM club option for '09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout - Type B
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27) - Type A
Andy Pettitte (37) - Type A
Sidney Ponson (32)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
Glendon Rusch (34)
C.C. Sabathia (28) - Type A
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30) - Type A
John Smoltz (42) - Type B
Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option - Type B
Kip Wells (32)
Randy Wolf (32) - Type B

native_astro
10-30-2008, 07:25 PM
The only thing about signing AJ Burnett if he opted out, would be that the Astros would lose their 1st Round Pick.

Here is the 2009 Free Agent Starters and their Type A/B Rankings:

Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season - Type A
Paul Byrd (38) - Type B
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33)
Bartolo Colon (36)
Ryan Dempster (32) - Type A
Shawn Estes (36)
Josh Fogg (32)
Freddy Garcia (33)
Jon Garland (29) - Type B
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
Jon Lieber (39)
Braden Looper (34) - Type B
Rodrigo Lopez (33) - club option for '09
Derek Lowe (36) - Type A
Greg Maddux (43) - Type B
Pedro Martinez (37)
Sergio Mitre (28)
Jamie Moyer (46) - Type A
Mark Mulder (31)
Mike Mussina (40) - Type A
Carl Pavano (33) - $13MM club option for '09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout - Type B
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27) - Type A
Andy Pettitte (37) - Type A
Sidney Ponson (32)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
Glendon Rusch (34)
C.C. Sabathia (28) - Type A
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30) - Type A
John Smoltz (42) - Type B
Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option - Type B
Kip Wells (32)
Randy Wolf (32) - Type B

I agree that if we sign Sheets, Lowe, or Burnett it's going to sting a little to lose our 1st round draft pick.

I hope that the Astros offer Doug Brocail arbritration, he declines, and then signs with another team so that we would gain an additional 1st round pick.

The fan in me would like to see the Astros go out and get a solid #2, but it appears that may not be the case. The Astros seem like they're going to try to resign Wolf and hold onto their draft picks.

Things will get interesting if Rand Wolf signs with another team. I have a feeling that he is going to sign close to home(Dodgers) no matter what he says. This stinks of Carlos Beltran. I have a feeling that Wolf is going to use the Astros to raise his price tag.

Jermster
10-30-2008, 09:42 PM
I hope the Astro offer arbitration is case he does bail so that way they at least get a pick for him.

The Astros can off arbitration to these players and get a draft pick:
Doug Brocail - Type A
Mark Lorrete - Type B
Randy Wolf - Type B

native_astro
10-30-2008, 10:18 PM
I don't know if they'll offer Mark Loretta arbitration seeing how he made 4.25 million last year, but I could be wrong. Brocail and Wolf are probably a lock to get offered arbitration.

Agstro
10-30-2008, 11:58 PM
I don't know if they'll offer Mark Loretta arbitration seeing how he made 4.25 million last year, but I could be wrong. Brocail and Wolf are probably a lock to get offered arbitration.

Loretta made 2.75 million last year. He lost is arbitration case last year...I am pretty sure he was asking for something like 4.25 million last offseason though.

lawphin2
10-31-2008, 12:53 AM
Any of the players we can offer arbitration for we should. We can use them if they come back or the picks if they leave. It's a win-win with all of them

Agstro
10-31-2008, 06:28 PM
Any of the players we can offer arbitration for we should. We can use them if they come back or the picks if they leave. It's a win-win with all of them

I agree with some of the statement. We need to offer Type A and B players aribitration. These are the only players that result in us accummulating draft picks. The rest need to be examined on a case by case basis.

Does anyone know when the free agent grading list comes out?

native_astro
10-31-2008, 06:58 PM
I agree with some of the statement. We need to offer Type A and B players aribitration. These are the only players that result in us accummulating draft picks. The rest need to be examined on a case by case basis.

Does anyone know when the free agent grading list comes out?

I agree! I would only offer arbitration to Wolf and Brocail. You do not want to offer Loretta arbritration and have it result in paying a bench player 6million or so(Loretta made 4.25 last year).

astrosmaniac
11-01-2008, 04:05 PM
pedro might be a good, low base, high incentive signing, just to see if hes got anything left

Jermster
11-02-2008, 01:22 AM
What about signing Texas Native, Greg Maddux? The only bad thing about it, is that he is a Scott Boras client?

Agstro
11-03-2008, 12:45 AM
What about signing Texas Native, Greg Maddux? The only bad thing about it, is that he is a Scott Boras client?

He only wants to play for a West Coast team, or at least he has the last couple of seasons.

texassooner
11-03-2008, 01:19 AM
I agree with some of the statement. We need to offer Type A and B players aribitration. These are the only players that result in us accummulating draft picks. The rest need to be examined on a case by case basis.

Does anyone know when the free agent grading list comes out?

Type A

Bobby Abreu (Yankees)
Doug Brocail (Astros)
A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays)
Pat Burrell (Phillies)
Orlando Cabrera (White Sox)
Juan Cruz (Diamondbacks)
Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks)
Brian Fuentes (Rockies)
Brian Giles (Padres)
Bob Howry (Cubs)
Orlando Hudson (Diamondbacks)
Raul Ibanez (Mariners)
Jason Isringhausen (Cardinals)
Derek Lowe (Dodgers)
Damaso Marte (Yankees)
Jamie Moyer (Phillies)
Mike Mussina (Yankees)
Darren Oliver (Angels)
Oliver Perez (Mets)
Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
Manny Ramirez (Dodgers)
Edgar Renteria (Tigers)
Francisco Rodriguez (Angels)
C.C. Sabathia (Brewers)
Ben Sheets (Brewers)
Russ Springer (Cardinals)
Mark Teixeira (Angels)
Jason Varitek (Red Sox)
Kerry Wood (Cubs)

That's 30 Type As, though Giles and Marte may have their options picked up and Mussina may retire.

Type B

Jeremy Affeldt (Reds)
Moises Alou (Mets)
Garret Anderson (Angels)
Joe Beimel (Dodgers)
Casey Blake (Dodgers)
Hank Blalock (Rangers)
Milton Bradley (Rangers)
Paul Byrd (Red Sox)
Mike Cameron (Brewers)
Alan Embree (Athletics)
Eric Gagne (Brewers)
Jon Garland (Angels)
Luis Gonzalez (Marlins)
Ken Griffey Jr. (White Sox)
Mark Grudzielanek (Royals)
Trevor Hoffman (Padres)
Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks)
Jeff Kent (Dodgers)
Paul Lo Duca (Marlins)
Braden Looper (Cardinals)
Mark Loretta (Astros)
Brandon Lyon (Diamondbacks)
Greg Maddux (Dodgers)
Trever Miller (Rays)
Miguel Olivo (Royals)
Brad Penny (Dodgers)
Dennys Reyes (Twins)
Ivan Rodriguez (Yankees)
Brian Shouse (Brewers)
John Smoltz (Braves)
Frank Thomas (Athletics)
Salomon Torres (Brewers)
Juan Uribe (White Sox)
David Weathers (Reds)
Randy Wolf (Astros)
Gregg Zaun (Blue Jays)

Jermster
11-03-2008, 02:06 PM
He only wants to play for a West Coast team, or at least he has the last couple of seasons.

I read the the Ranger are going to try to lure Greg Maddux. That means he may want to return to Texas and if he does, then the Astros should try to go after him.

Crzycjunx76
11-04-2008, 03:02 AM
I would like to avoid signing any class A free agents that are offered arbitration by their teams. I would like to win now and hope we can field a competitive team but signing a starter or two dosent make us a top teir contender and sacrificing the opportunity to strengthen our minors for the future of the ball club makes little sense where we stand right now. Next thing you know were going to be wondering how we wound up being the Baltomore of the NL or the Washington of the Centeral... :speechless:.

Now if I had to pick starters just from free agency who I thought would be willing to sign with us without handicapping the team payroll down the road I would probably go with-



Sergio Mitre- Not a big name with alot of success... he has never managed less that a 1.4 WHIP in a season but taking a closer look at his statistics shows that Mitre has a redicously low line drive and fly ball rate, leaving him with a ground ball rate just shy of 60%. Last season was Mitre's first to log more than 100IP with 149. His strikeout rate is low but he is a groundball pitcher and he got his walk rate to a career low last season. His opponents BABIP slightly inflated his ERA which sat at a very poor 4.65 but what really hurt Sergio was being a groundball pitcher with a poor defensive infield as his ERA adjusted for fielding drops all the way down to 3.98. I think Sergio could be had for very little commitment and he is just entering his statistical prime at 28 yrs old. He could prove a very Effective 4 or 5 starter if the Astros work on improving their infield defense.

I would also extend a 2 year offer to Randy Wolf and some low base salary offers to a recovering pitcher or two like Matt Clement, Brad Penny, Freddy Garcia, or Bartolo Colon.

TheRedMarauder
11-04-2008, 03:01 PM
I read the the Ranger are going to try to lure Greg Maddux. That means he may want to return to Texas and if he does, then the Astros should try to go after him.

Wrong. They are trying to lure Mike Maddux to be their pitching coach. Greg is most likely retiring.

TheRedMarauder
11-04-2008, 03:02 PM
The Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros "have had internal discussions about" Mike Hampton.

Hampton was healthy enough to make just 13 starts last season and showed diminished stuff, going 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA in 78 innings. Atlanta is also said to be interested in re-signing Hampton, so he may be able to coax a two-year deal out of someone despite not logging 100 innings in a season since 2004.


General manager Ed Wade said Monday that the Astros would like to re-sign free agents Randy Wolf, LaTroy Hawkins and Doug Brocail.

"We’re still hopeful that those three particularly we can try to get back sooner rather than later, recognizing that once this market opens up, it behooves them to see what’s out there," Wade said.

rotoworld

Agstro
11-04-2008, 05:02 PM
I would also extend a 2 year offer to Randy Wolf and some low base salary offers to a recovering pitcher or two like Matt Clement, Brad Penny, Freddy Garcia, or Bartolo Colon.

What is Colon deal? I looked as his record he was 4-2 with 3.92 era. I really haven't heard anything about him as of late. This is one of the guys that seems alittle less risky to sign because he actually did pitch some this year as oppossed to Clement, Prior, and Mulder.

I would love Penny and he is from Oklahoma, so he is kinda of a local boy. However, I think the Dodgers have an option on him, so the ball is in there court.

Jermster
11-04-2008, 06:30 PM
What is Colon deal? I looked as his record he was 4-2 with 3.92 era. I really haven't heard anything about him as of late. This is one of the guys that seems alittle less risky to sign because he actually did pitch some this year as oppossed to Clement, Prior, and Mulder.

I would love Penny and he is from Oklahoma, so he is kinda of a local boy. However, I think the Dodgers have an option on him, so the ball is in there court.

Been Sheets is also a local boy,who is from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. But he has had health issues and also the Astros would lose their 1st round pick.

lawphin2
11-05-2008, 06:34 PM
What is Colon deal? I looked as his record he was 4-2 with 3.92 era. I really haven't heard anything about him as of late. This is one of the guys that seems alittle less risky to sign because he actually did pitch some this year as oppossed to Clement, Prior, and Mulder.

I would love Penny and he is from Oklahoma, so he is kinda of a local boy. However, I think the Dodgers have an option on him, so the ball is in there court.

Penny's option was declined. It would be nice if we sign him

Crzycjunx76
11-05-2008, 08:17 PM
On the cheap Penny would be nice ... his performance hinges on a good infield and a healthy shoulder.

Crzycjunx76
11-07-2008, 05:58 AM
Im a bit bored and im spending some time looking at all the free agent starting pitching that is not class A so I figured while im studying the pitchers I might as well post some of my observations.


Kris Benson - He is done... really was never that good

Paul Byrd - has a very bad strikeout rate, puts up a lot of flyballs, and 11% of his flyballs clear the fences... dont think our ballpark would be kind to him. At 38 he is in his twilight.

Roger Clemens - even if he is not in jail he is done

Matt Clement - If he is healthy he has a good strikeout rate and his groundball rate is good as well... but his walkrate has been high every year of his career... id stay away from him. At 33 he is past his prime.

Bartolo Colon - Can he stay healthy a whole season? If he does he has a good strikeout rate and an acceptable walk rate... my only concern is that he has a fairly high flyball rate and a fair ammount of those flyballs find themselves out of the park... he could be a decent pickup for the right price but would probaly look better in a different park ... either way at 36 his career is nearing its end and he could see a rapid downturn in his ability.

Shawn Estes - some guys I probaly shouldent even bother... Estes is old at 36, his strikeout rate is awful and his walkrate has never been good, the only good thing is he has a high groundball rate but I wouldent touch him.

Josh Fogg - acceptable strikeout rate, barely acceptable walk rate... combined its not a good thing and to go further he has a had a higher percentage of flyballs every season with 14% of them leaving the park last season... another dud

Freddy Garcia - a good strikeout rate and a decent walk rate are a good start, Freddy has a very high flyball rate ... the strikeout rate might be enough to cover for that but what scares me is that since 2005 (before he was hurt)freddy has lost velocity on all of his pitches at a steady rate and has lost an average of 4mph on all five pitches he throws. Garcia may still be able to be effective but my concerns would probably keep me from giving him a ML contract.

Jon Garland - Garland has a bad strikeout rate... no way around it. However Garland has also been a horse, with 3000+ pitches thrown for more than 4 consecutive seasons. Garland has to keep the ball down and his walkrate low to be sucessful. He actually showed an increase on the velocity of all of his pitches to levels he hasnt exceeded since 2005... I dont think he will manage the flyball rate he had last season again as it was 7% lower than his career average... and even though his BAD strikeout rate scares me I wouldent mind offering him 4th starter money for 3 years given the other options in this group.

Tom Glavine - nope

Mike Hampton - as often as hampton is broken if he gets more than a minor league deal from anyone I will be shocked... he is 36 and neither his strikeout rate or his walk rate have been acceptable since 2003... actually he has never had a good walkrate. I love groundball pitchers and he has a wonderfully low flyball percentage but groundball pitchers with a high walkrate who are made of glass are not a good investment.

Mark Hendrickson - Dont think I would mess with this guy... low strikeout rate soft tosser who dosent have a high groundball percentage and has never had success.

Livan Hernandez - a few years ago Livan began to loose velocity on his pitches... not alot but enough apparently because his strikeout rate went from ok to dismal... not someone I would consider

Orlando Hernandez - foot surgery and age = no

Jason Jennings - I am still bitter so im not even going to look and see... though other than Taylor Buchholz as a reliver the people we traded havent been good either.

Randy Johnson - God he is old... and his back must be constantly sore... but he can still pitch... High strikeouts, good walkrate, low linedrive rate... not an amazing groundball rate but hey he is the Big Unit... he makes his living on K's not infield ground balls. If he wanted a one year deal as a 3 starter I would do it in a heartbeat might even be tempted to give him two starter money.

Kenshin Kawakami- at the urging of a fellow poster I looked into the possible imports with a little more detail and while I still feel neither will stack up to Kuroda this guy has the stuff to be a decent four starter. The keys to his sucess will be keeping his walkrate down and hoping his lack of a deceptive delivery dosent get him hammered. If he fails to do one or the other he will get hammered and may not make a rotation.

Jon Lieber - another old fogey (39), personally I think he will retire.. if he dosent he isint a horrible pitcher.. he has a slightly high line drive rate and I doubt he is good for very many innings... he is a slightly better Brian Moehler

Braden Looper - Low strikeout rate but a low walkrate and a high groundball rate offset that.. at 34 his best years are just ending. He is nothing special a 5th starter/ spot starter bullpen arm. I wouldent go for him unless we were just trying to fill the rotation and then the price would have to be Moehleresque.

Rodrigo Lopez - Coming off TJ in 07, Braves have an option for 09. If he is healthy and the Braves dont exercise the option I think he has the ability to be a near league average starter. Decent strikeout rate, acceptable walk rate, the only real problem I have with him is the TJ and his high linedrive rate. (Mental note... not a whole lot of healthy pitchers who are league average in this group)

Greg Maddux - If he dosent retire he isint coming here.

Pedro Martinez - Seems like he is always hurt but his strikeout rate is still good, his walk rate was abnormally high in the 100 or so innings he pitched and his linedrive rate was Way up from his career average. This is a risk VS reward situation if ive ever seen one... it falls on the medical and coaching staff to work Pedro out and determine if he is healthy and if he is in the condition to weather a full season... if they do my only concert is Pedro's Fly ball rate could be a concert...

Mark Mulder - Of all the people who are attempting injury comebacks Mulder concerns me the most... im not sure if he will ever be right again. Oh but if he is he has a better than average strikeout rate a and a good walkrate over his career and his groundball tendencies are perfect for our park (maybe not our infielders though). Once again you have to work Mark out... make sure his arm slot has returned to its proper place and that he is healthy... I would only offer him a minor league deal but if the coaching staff thinks he is healthy I dont see how you could pass up the potential to have Mulder in the lineup on the cheap.

John Parrish - Didint even know who this guy is... and with good reason. I wouldent persue him.

Carl Pavano - Another injury risk, his strikeout rate was never good and his only good seasons have come when his BABIP and walkrate were down. Maybe this is just an arbitrary decision but his strikeout rate was already declining below acceptable levels before he got hurt and I just dont think he is worth the risk at anything but a minor league deal.

Brad Penny - Everything about Penny hinges on the health of his shoulder... if it is he has an acceptable strikout rate and walk rate with a good groundball percentage... Penny Will NEVER have another season like 2007 he is not an ace but I would sign him to a 2-3 year contract paying high 3 starter money .. if he can keep his K/BB ration above 2 he will be well worth it and a better option than most of the pitchers on this list.

Odalis Perez - I really dont understand Perez... his supporting numbers are not bad but his performance never matches up. The only thing I can come up with is he simply dosent have good enough stuff to avoid being hit. His only really good season came when his line drive rate was lower than he has come close to being since and his groundball percentage was much higher than his career average. He has had some bad luck with his BABIP so he may be worth a look as part of the lower end of the rotation.

Sidney Ponson - His strikeout rate has never been good nor has his walkrate, he gets by on the strength of his groundball percentage. I might be tempted to give him a look if I hadnt learned my lesson about pitchers with personal issues from Chacon.

Mark Prior - If healthy I would sign him in a heartbeat... but it would have to be quite a commitment to keep him off the west coast... I still might be temped to do it but he will probably be a inexpensive 1 year option for the Padres.

Kenny Rogers - No

Glendon Rusch - His linedrive rate has always been his problem

Curt Schilling - Like Randy Johnson he is still a good pitcher but can he come back from injury and still be effective. He probably wouldent play a full season even if healthy (might sign late) and probably wants to go to someone in contention.

John Smoltz - Another Old/Good pitcher.... I find it hard to belive he would pitch for anyone but Atlanta.

Koji Uehara - The other potential Japaneese import. Dosent have the stuff you usally want out of a starting pitcher but he may be able to get by on his location and deceptivness if he manages to induce lots of groundballs. If he has a high flyball percentage he is going to get crushed and even with his excellent location his lack of quality pitches could make him very hittable. I would probalby consider him a fifth starter but his durability concerns may make him a bullpen arm.

Kip Wells - Id rather see Brandon Backe pitch. If Kip could just get the walks down he would be a decent pitcher... dosent seem likely to change at this point in his career though.

Randy Wolf - What part of 08 was the abberation, the first half or the second? Wolf has a good strikeout rate but a bad walk rate. Wolf's linedrive rate returned to his career average last season after spending two seasons at a lower rate. All in all what we saw in an Astros uniform is probably as good as it gets for the lefty and over the length of the season we would probably see something inbetween the two extremes Wolf reached last year which is closer to his career numbers.

Wow I feel vaugely depressed after all of that .. "the Old the Bad and the Injured" sounds about right and you can subistute risky for injured if you would like... of course some of the pitchers fit all three criteria old bad and injured. Im not sure who I would target if I had to take into account Risk, age, and quality of pitcher.

I would make suggestions on who I would pursue but Its late and I have to be up in about 2 hours so ill leave that for some other time.

Jermster
11-07-2008, 01:08 PM
Im a bit bored and im spending some time looking at all the free agent starting pitching that is not class A so I figured while im studying the pitchers I might as well post some of my observations.


Kris Benson - He is done... really was never that good

Paul Byrd - has a very bad strikeout rate, puts up a lot of flyballs, and 11% of his flyballs clear the fences... dont think our ballpark would be kind to him. At 38 he is in his twilight.

Roger Clemens - even if he is not in jail he is done

Matt Clement - If he is healthy he has a good strikeout rate and his groundball rate is good as well... but his walkrate has been high every year of his career... id stay away from him. At 33 he is past his prime.

Bartolo Colon - Can he stay healthy a whole season? If he does he has a good strikeout rate and an acceptable walk rate... my only concern is that he has a fairly high flyball rate and a fair ammount of those flyballs find themselves out of the park... he could be a decent pickup for the right price but would probaly look better in a different park ... either way at 36 his career is nearing its end and he could see a rapid downturn in his ability.

Shawn Estes - some guys I probaly shouldent even bother... Estes is old at 36, his strikeout rate is awful and his walkrate has never been good, the only good thing is he has a high groundball rate but I wouldent touch him.

Josh Fogg - acceptable strikeout rate, barely acceptable walk rate... combined its not a good thing and to go further he has a had a higher percentage of flyballs every season with 14% of them leaving the park last season... another dud

Freddy Garcia - a good strikeout rate and a decent walk rate are a good start, Freddy has a very high flyball rate ... the strikeout rate might be enough to cover for that but what scares me is that since 2005 (before he was hurt)freddy has lost velocity on all of his pitches at a steady rate and has lost an average of 4mph on all five pitches he throws. Garcia may still be able to be effective but my concerns would probably keep me from giving him a ML contract.

Jon Garland - Garland has a bad strikeout rate... no way around it. However Garland has also been a horse, with 3000+ pitches thrown for more than 4 consecutive seasons. Garland has to keep the ball down and his walkrate low to be sucessful. He actually showed an increase on the velocity of all of his pitches to levels he hasnt exceeded since 2005... I dont think he will manage the flyball rate he had last season again as it was 7% lower than his career average... and even though his BAD strikeout rate scares me I wouldent mind offering him 4th starter money for 3 years given the other options in this group.

Tom Glavine - nope

Mike Hampton - as often as hampton is broken if he gets more than a minor league deal from anyone I will be shocked... he is 36 and neither his strikeout rate or his walk rate have been acceptable since 2003... actually he has never had a good walkrate. I love groundball pitchers and he has a wonderfully low flyball percentage but groundball pitchers with a high walkrate who are made of glass are not a good investment.

Mark Hendrickson - Dont think I would mess with this guy... low strikeout rate soft tosser who dosent have a high groundball percentage and has never had success.

Livan Hernandez - a few years ago Livan began to loose velocity on his pitches... not alot but enough apparently because his strikeout rate went from ok to dismal... not someone I would consider

Orlando Hernandez - foot surgery and age = no

Jason Jennings - I am still bitter so im not even going to look and see... though other than Taylor Buchholz as a reliver the people we traded havent been good either.

Randy Johnson - God he is old... and his back must be constantly sore... but he can still pitch... High strikeouts, good walkrate, low linedrive rate... not an amazing groundball rate but hey he is the Big Unit... he makes his living on K's not infield ground balls. If he wanted a one year deal as a 3 starter I would do it in a heartbeat might even be tempted to give him two starter money.

Kenshin Kawakami- at the urging of a fellow poster I looked into the possible imports with a little more detail and while I still feel neither will stack up to Kuroda this guy has the stuff to be a decent four starter. The keys to his sucess will be keeping his walkrate down and hoping his lack of a deceptive delivery dosent get him hammered. If he fails to do one or the other he will get hammered and may not make a rotation.

Jon Lieber - another old fogey (39), personally I think he will retire.. if he dosent he isint a horrible pitcher.. he has a slightly high line drive rate and I doubt he is good for very many innings... he is a slightly better Brian Moehler

Braden Looper - Low strikeout rate but a low walkrate and a high groundball rate offset that.. at 34 his best years are just ending. He is nothing special a 5th starter/ spot starter bullpen arm. I wouldent go for him unless we were just trying to fill the rotation and then the price would have to be Moehleresque.

Rodrigo Lopez - Coming off TJ in 07, Braves have an option for 09. If he is healthy and the Braves dont exercise the option I think he has the ability to be a near league average starter. Decent strikeout rate, acceptable walk rate, the only real problem I have with him is the TJ and his high linedrive rate. (Mental note... not a whole lot of healthy pitchers who are league average in this group)

Greg Maddux - If he dosent retire he isint coming here.

Pedro Martinez - Seems like he is always hurt but his strikeout rate is still good, his walk rate was abnormally high in the 100 or so innings he pitched and his linedrive rate was Way up from his career average. This is a risk VS reward situation if ive ever seen one... it falls on the medical and coaching staff to work Pedro out and determine if he is healthy and if he is in the condition to weather a full season... if they do my only concert is Pedro's Fly ball rate could be a concert...

Mark Mulder - Of all the people who are attempting injury comebacks Mulder concerns me the most... im not sure if he will ever be right again. Oh but if he is he has a better than average strikeout rate a and a good walkrate over his career and his groundball tendencies are perfect for our park (maybe not our infielders though). Once again you have to work Mark out... make sure his arm slot has returned to its proper place and that he is healthy... I would only offer him a minor league deal but if the coaching staff thinks he is healthy I dont see how you could pass up the potential to have Mulder in the lineup on the cheap.

John Parrish - Didint even know who this guy is... and with good reason. I wouldent persue him.

Carl Pavano - Another injury risk, his strikeout rate was never good and his only good seasons have come when his BABIP and walkrate were down. Maybe this is just an arbitrary decision but his strikeout rate was already declining below acceptable levels before he got hurt and I just dont think he is worth the risk at anything but a minor league deal.

Brad Penny - Everything about Penny hinges on the health of his shoulder... if it is he has an acceptable strikout rate and walk rate with a good groundball percentage... Penny Will NEVER have another season like 2007 he is not an ace but I would sign him to a 2-3 year contract paying high 3 starter money .. if he can keep his K/BB ration above 2 he will be well worth it and a better option than most of the pitchers on this list.

Odalis Perez - I really dont understand Perez... his supporting numbers are not bad but his performance never matches up. The only thing I can come up with is he simply dosent have good enough stuff to avoid being hit. His only really good season came when his line drive rate was lower than he has come close to being since and his groundball percentage was much higher than his career average. He has had some bad luck with his BABIP so he may be worth a look as part of the lower end of the rotation.

Sidney Ponson - His strikeout rate has never been good nor has his walkrate, he gets by on the strength of his groundball percentage. I might be tempted to give him a look if I hadnt learned my lesson about pitchers with personal issues from Chacon.

Mark Prior - If healthy I would sign him in a heartbeat... but it would have to be quite a commitment to keep him off the west coast... I still might be temped to do it but he will probably be a inexpensive 1 year option for the Padres.

Kenny Rogers - No

Glendon Rusch - His linedrive rate has always been his problem

Curt Schilling - Like Randy Johnson he is still a good pitcher but can he come back from injury and still be effective. He probably wouldent play a full season even if healthy (might sign late) and probably wants to go to someone in contention.

John Smoltz - Another Old/Good pitcher.... I find it hard to belive he would pitch for anyone but Atlanta.

Koji Uehara - The other potential Japaneese import. Dosent have the stuff you usally want out of a starting pitcher but he may be able to get by on his location and deceptivness if he manages to induce lots of groundballs. If he has a high flyball percentage he is going to get crushed and even with his excellent location his lack of quality pitches could make him very hittable. I would probalby consider him a fifth starter but his durability concerns may make him a bullpen arm.

Kip Wells - Id rather see Brandon Backe pitch. If Kip could just get the walks down he would be a decent pitcher... dosent seem likely to change at this point in his career though.

Randy Wolf - What part of 08 was the abberation, the first half or the second? Wolf has a good strikeout rate but a bad walk rate. Wolf's linedrive rate returned to his career average last season after spending two seasons at a lower rate. All in all what we saw in an Astros uniform is probably as good as it gets for the lefty and over the length of the season we would probably see something inbetween the two extremes Wolf reached last year which is closer to his career numbers.

Wow I feel vaugely depressed after all of that .. "the Old the Bad and the Injured" sounds about right and you can subistute risky for injured if you would like... of course some of the pitchers fit all three criteria old bad and injured. Im not sure who I would target if I had to take into account Risk, age, and quality of pitcher.

I would make suggestions on who I would pursue but Its late and I have to be up in about 2 hours so ill leave that for some other time.

For all the injury prone pitcher, sign them to a incentive laden contract and/or a invite to spring training. Imagine 20 or so pitcher competing for jobs in the Astros rotation or bullpen.

Crzycjunx76
11-07-2008, 02:50 PM
I would focus it up just a little bit more... Mulder, Martinez, and Prior are by far the highest reward possibilities out of the injured pitchers but either of them could fail to contribute completley if things go wrong. I would honestly offer both if they looked healthy in a workout. I would give Prior a deal in the 3mil range with incintives trying to pry him away from San Diego and as for Mulder I would have to be impressed by his apparent health to give him anything more than a minor league deal but if he did impress I would go with Major league minium and incintives, as for Pedro Martinez, I would give him a minor league deal... or if we had already missed out on the other two perhaps a 1mil with incintives major league deal like Prior got last season.

Out of the old I would also offer Randy Johnson a contract for one year at decent 2-3 starter money. I would go for either Penny if his shoulder his healthy, or failing that Garland, and I would offer both fourth starter money for about a three year deal.

If we manage to get three major league starters out of that group that would be great but if we only managed to get two pitchers then I would love to add someone like Odalis Perez or Kenshin Kawakami for lower end contracts similar to Moehler's only with incintives and two years in an attempt to send Moehler to the pen as a long/middle reliver.

Oswalt
Rodriguez
Johnson
Penny
Kawakami

or

Oswalt
Prior
Rodriguez
Garland
Perez

or any combination really