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View Full Version : 82games projects J.R. Smith, J-Rich and M. Miller as top 3 shooters in 08-09



DenButsu
09-20-2008, 09:06 AM
A very good detailed look at 3-point shooting in the NBA, and where things might be going in the upcoming season:

http://www.82games.com/Adjusting.htm

JOSETHEALLSTAR
09-20-2008, 01:07 PM
dont forget battier

barreleffact
09-20-2008, 01:27 PM
all i did was glance at a few charts but it seemed to imply that iggy and lebron have better 3 point shots than kobe? IMO that destroys its credibility

BowDown32
09-20-2008, 01:54 PM
kapono

clehmun
09-20-2008, 02:19 PM
can someone explain how a great 3 pt shooter such as j-rich is such a bad freethrow shooter?

MiamiHeat
09-20-2008, 02:20 PM
Mario Chalmers :)

Chronz
09-20-2008, 03:24 PM
all i did was glance at a few charts but it seemed to imply that iggy and lebron have better 3 point shots than kobe? IMO that destroys its credibility

What graph were you looking at?

MOHA
09-20-2008, 03:32 PM
Jamal Crawford and Shane Battier.

barreleffact
09-20-2008, 03:35 PM
What graph were you looking at?

i looked down pretty far. just to see the list with them at the top 3. i decided to see where kobe was it it had lebron, cp3, iggy all above him to name a few. it was blue-greenigh and the last list on the page

SHONIE
09-20-2008, 04:02 PM
He's saying based on their specific teams, LeBron and Iggy shoot better than Kobe. So basically if Kobe were on the Cavs, he would have lower percentages than Lebron. Not that I agree with it, but that is what I think he is trying to say.

SHONIE
09-20-2008, 04:02 PM
P.S. - that is not a graph, its a table.

dre1990
09-20-2008, 04:11 PM
I think Jason richardson will suprise people this season as a allstar and a top 10 mvp vote getter along with being mo of a three point shooter

Famous03
09-20-2008, 04:25 PM
Ok????

barreleffact
09-20-2008, 04:56 PM
P.S. - that is not a graph, its a table.

yes...yes..would consider it a list more so than a table. i wasnt paying attention earlier but thank you o wise scholar. jp...im not an ***.
and i thought about that earlier. about he may have been implying that but regardless it makes no sense. 1 because its a hypothesis that cannot be tested and 2 because all signs have pointed towrd kobe being better than all of them 3 point wise. but why am i writing this, you already said you didnt agree

Chronz
09-20-2008, 06:30 PM
Barrel unless you know what hes trying to say you cant really comment on it, Im just now reading it but from the looks of it, it seems you didnt even give this thing a chance at what its trying to define or project. I guess your waiting for someone else to do that for you (some one like me) or you really are that protective of Kobe. In either case Ill add my 2 cents in abit.

Chronz
09-20-2008, 06:45 PM
Yea ok I dont know how the author expects us to evaluate his methods of projecting the players stats without the actual 3pt%. Seems like a curious model but there many of variables he has to account for such as shot selection and possibly shot location.

If he could post the historic ATPSP of all the star players in the past few years we could atleast get a general feel for how accurate the projections are, but even then injuries can derail any players career trend but thats hardly new to any projection analysis and he does make mention of 32 year olds suffering more than any age group. Should be interesting to watch Sheed and Billups this year to see if they indeed fall off.


Still my take from the Lebron-Kobe thing is that Kobe was still rated higher last year. Guess he has LeBron improving to the point where hes above Kobe and Kobe regressing as he ages. I doubt any of that happens so its pointless but his model isnt useless. Im just having trouble understanding the point of adjusting 3pt%.

Hawkeye15
09-20-2008, 06:50 PM
can someone explain how a great 3 pt shooter such as j-rich is such a bad freethrow shooter?

Bruce Bowen from a year or two ago??? The dude was a great three point shooter, and horrible free throw shooter. The only think I can think of is that three pointers come in rythm. Free throws are mental.

Hawkeye15
09-20-2008, 06:52 PM
He's saying based on their specific teams, LeBron and Iggy shoot better than Kobe. So basically if Kobe were on the Cavs, he would have lower percentages than Lebron. Not that I agree with it, but that is what I think he is trying to say.

I agree with it. Kobe has more freedom with better players around him. LeBron is hawked all over the floor. Plus, LeBron takes the most ridiculous threes, like 5 feet behind with 12 seconds on the shot clock, killing his percentages. Kobe is a better three point shooter, but he isn't that good, so it isn't saying much.

Beno7500
09-20-2008, 07:56 PM
Francisco Garcia should be there.

cmellofan15
09-20-2008, 08:02 PM
As long as JR starts some games than I don't care how well he does shooting 3's

barreleffact
09-20-2008, 08:27 PM
Yea ok I dont know how the author expects us to evaluate his methods of projecting the players stats without the actual 3pt%. Seems like a curious model but there many of variables he has to account for such as shot selection and possibly shot location.

If he could post the historic ATPSP of all the star players in the past few years we could atleast get a general feel for how accurate the projections are, but even then injuries can derail any players career trend but thats hardly new to any projection analysis and he does make mention of 32 year olds suffering more than any age group. Should be interesting to watch Sheed and Billups this year to see if they indeed fall off.


Still my take from the Lebron-Kobe thing is that Kobe was still rated higher last year. Guess he has LeBron improving to the point where hes above Kobe and Kobe regressing as he ages. I doubt any of that happens so its pointless but his model isnt useless. Im just having trouble understanding the point of adjusting 3pt%.

it doesnt seem like you are considering it to be too great either. i gave it a decent chance till i saw the length. 3 point shooting isnt that necessaryto win IMO. i mean the spurs won 4 rings not taking many 3's. pheonix shoots a lot and have none. so u youre right that i dont really care.

HOWEVER, no matter how you spin it, the list is pretty bad. JR is a great 3 point shooter but I doubt he nor j rich wil be in the top. not trying to discredit either of their shooting abilities. but there are better shooters who will have better percentages and equal amounts of opportunities. if the list is saying that those 3 will shoot it the most, then sorry, he might be right and i just wasted a bunch of time and words to feel like a dummy but if hes basing it on efficiency? no, i do not agree

as far as what others suggested...kobe is doubled and forced to take a lot of off shots. he just has good decision making. lebron just likes to shoot 3's for who knows what reason. not saying who's a better player but when kobe is shooting there is a purpose for it. so to state that lebron or iggy, who isnt a great shooter at all yet, are better than the highly doubled kobe is rediculous. teams would gladly give lebron or iggy a shot before kobe or even cp3. so to say that if kobe was on the cavs his shots would be worse is rediculous. the fact that teams want lebron to shoot 3's would imply that he gets easier looks.

hawkeye...i dont think 3 point shooting and free throw shooting are just more mental and lacking rhythm. it may just be practice. bowen shot a lot of corner 3's religiously but other 3's were no where near as consistant. people say the mid range game is gone and now players only shoot 3's or dunk it. in short, maybe its a lack of focus or will to practice them as much. plus people have freethrow shooting rhythms and tendencies too. like j kidd will always dribble and kiss before he shoots, nash always licks his hands, some people will twirl the ball for grip, and others always dribble 3 times, etc all just to get into rhythm.

Hawkeye15
09-20-2008, 10:08 PM
it doesnt seem like you are considering it to be too great either. i gave it a decent chance till i saw the length. 3 point shooting isnt that necessaryto win IMO. i mean the spurs won 4 rings not taking many 3's. pheonix shoots a lot and have none. so u youre right that i dont really care.

HOWEVER, no matter how you spin it, the list is pretty bad. JR is a great 3 point shooter but I doubt he nor j rich wil be in the top. not trying to discredit either of their shooting abilities. but there are better shooters who will have better percentages and equal amounts of opportunities. if the list is saying that those 3 will shoot it the most, then sorry, he might be right and i just wasted a bunch of time and words to feel like a dummy but if hes basing it on efficiency? no, i do not agree

as far as what others suggested...kobe is doubled and forced to take a lot of off shots. he just has good decision making. lebron just likes to shoot 3's for who knows what reason. not saying who's a better player but when kobe is shooting there is a purpose for it. so to state that lebron or iggy, who isnt a great shooter at all yet, are better than the highly doubled kobe is rediculous. teams would gladly give lebron or iggy a shot before kobe or even cp3. so to say that if kobe was on the cavs his shots would be worse is rediculous. the fact that teams want lebron to shoot 3's would imply that he gets easier looks.

hawkeye...i dont think 3 point shooting and free throw shooting are just more mental and lacking rhythm. it may just be practice. bowen shot a lot of corner 3's religiously but other 3's were no where near as consistant. people say the mid range game is gone and now players only shoot 3's or dunk it. in short, maybe its a lack of focus or will to practice them as much. plus people have freethrow shooting rhythms and tendencies too. like j kidd will always dribble and kiss before he shoots, nash always licks his hands, some people will twirl the ball for grip, and others always dribble 3 times, etc all just to get into rhythm.

No, free throw shooting is all confidence when techniuqe is there. Three pointers come in the flow of the game. Free throws allow the brain to come into play, shots in rythm do not. So yes, there is a huge difference.

barreleffact
09-20-2008, 10:39 PM
No, free throw shooting is all confidence when techniuqe is there. Three pointers come in the flow of the game. Free throws allow the brain to come into play, shots in rythm do not. So yes, there is a huge difference.

when technique is there is the key part. however, still i disagree. most players wont shoot any shot as confidently after they've missed a few in a row. their mentality changes and they become hesitant. there is a lot of time to think before you shoot even when heavily guarded because you have to decide if shooting is the best thing to do. yes, there is more time to think on the stripe because nobody can invade your space but there is rhythm in it. you have to stay just as consistent physically as you do with any shot. lastly, EVERYTHING sport related is mental: from athleticism, defense, to shooting, and even stamina.

codes238
09-21-2008, 08:37 AM
can someone explain how a great 3 pt shooter such as j-rich is such a bad freethrow shooter?

yea this actually never made any sense to me...