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DenButsu
08-29-2008, 11:23 PM
Graph image (http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080829ObamaRegains1_dalwla.gif)


Gallup: Obama Regains Support of Conservative Democrats

Barack Obama's gain in support among registered voters from Monday to Wednesday of this week was in part the result of gains among conservative Democrats -- the group among whom the Democratic nominee had lost ground last week as he slipped to an overall tie with John McCain.

Obama and McCain were tied 45% to 45% among voters in interviewing conducted last week (Aug. 18-24). This represented a small decline for Obama, and analysis of the trend line of support for the two candidates among subgroups showed that it was due to a slippage among the relatively small group of Democrats with a conservative ideology. Now, with Obama holding a 6-point lead over McCain Monday through Wednesday of this week (Aug. 25-27), Obama has gained back that support and then some, moving from a 63% to a 77% level of support among conservative Democrats.

...It is likely that conservative Democrats consist disproportionately of Hillary Clinton supporters, although this cannot be documented from the tracking data because no question about prior support of candidates is included. Analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from May, however, shows that conservative Democrats disproportionately supported Clinton over Obama for the Democratic nominationgallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/109915/Obama-Regains-Support-Conservative-Democrats.aspx)

ari1013
08-30-2008, 09:06 AM
That's who he was afraid of losing to McCain. so it looks like he was able to consolidate his base. now the ball's in McCain's court.

As I said, there are more Dems than Republicans. So if Obama can get his base% up to McCain's level, he should win.

Bosox Believer
08-30-2008, 11:36 AM
Very encouraging. Let's see if the bump can hold through the GOP Convention though...

DenButsu
08-30-2008, 11:47 AM
Very encouraging. Let's see if the bump can hold through the GOP Convention though...

I am very, very interested to watch the GOP convention now.

The Dem themes were not suprising ("unity" and "change"), but were surprisingly consistent and on message in a disciplined way throughout the entire convention.

How long have the Republicans *really* known this Palin pick was coming? How much have they had the chance to integrate her into the convention? What will be the over-arching themes (besides just bashing Obama)? The answers to lots of unanswered questions will soon be revealed...

Bosox Believer
08-30-2008, 11:58 AM
I think the themes would be "kitchen sink" energy policy. (Plays well with voters, but I hate any policy that increases drilling)
"Win the War" (I just hope for once someone can define what it means to "win" this one)
"Experience" (Which I believe will fall flat now)

Basically a continuation of what we have been seeing. I personally don't believe it will be enough to win in Nov.