PDA

View Full Version : Dice-k.......Cy Young?



PapelbonLester
08-20-2008, 07:11 PM
imo this man should be considered top 3 if not the cy young winner he is VERY overlooked and underrated even with that huge contract...

15-2 with a 2.77 era 109 stikeouts in only 126.2 innings pitched he's only given up 8 homers. idk tell me what you guys think. i see him and lester being top 5.

Towelie
08-20-2008, 07:13 PM
only 109 K's stop him really.Too many walks.

yaowowrocket11
08-20-2008, 07:14 PM
Honestly, him and Lester both deserve it, but I think Cliff Lee, John Lackey, or Roy Halladay get the Cy Young.

The Intimidator
08-20-2008, 07:20 PM
Lester has a better chance than Matsuzaka does, just because of the fact that Dice-K hasn't been dominant at any point this season. Teams don't fear him. They aren't scoring on him, but they still don't shake in their boots when they think about facing him. He has been amazing when it comes to getting out of the jams that he puts himself in, but the last time I checked, a Cy Young pitcher doesn't make getting into those types of situations a habit. Lester, on the other hand, is quickly gaining the respect of teams throughout the league, and will finish in the top 5 as long as he finishes with 14-15 wins, IMO.

-Lavigne43-
08-20-2008, 08:00 PM
No. He does not pitch nearly enough innings. Lee - 170.7 innings, Halladay 191 innings, Lester 167.7 innings

Brooke
08-20-2008, 08:02 PM
Lester has a better chance

Dice-K walks too many people and doesn't pitch enough innings

PapelbonLester
08-20-2008, 08:09 PM
15-2 with a 2.7 era.....cmon

futureheisman
08-20-2008, 08:10 PM
he gets the job done in the longrun but i dont believe he will win due to way he pitches.

Tragedy
08-20-2008, 08:18 PM
The numbers that the voters look at (W-L and ERA) are both pretty, but the rest are not. He's been good this year (Very shaky), but he has virtually no shot at the award.

quiksilver2491
08-20-2008, 08:34 PM
Both Matsuzaka and Lester have been great for us but they don't exactly have CY numbers. I won't deny either of their value to this team, we would probably be out of the race without them but they haven't been quite as sharp as Roy Halladay, who should win the CY.

Towelie
08-20-2008, 08:41 PM
He doesn't have the innings either.

gosawks
08-20-2008, 09:54 PM
Can't see it happening... just because ESPN put it in their SC poll today doesn't make it a realistic possibility.

Lord Byron 34
08-21-2008, 12:39 AM
I think that Dice-K looks very good when you only consider the numbers but if you watch him pitch he is not as dominating as the cy young would suggest. Certainly his W-L and ERA are very good, and he is a very good pitcher (I cannot dispute that) but he is not even the best pitcher on the sox, right now i'd say he is #3, and certainly not the cy young winner. He does not pitch enough innings. I think it should be halladay or lee, or maybe even lester, but not dice-k. If i had a vote i would go halladay.

TheKid
08-21-2008, 02:13 AM
he has what 7 possible starts left on the season?

if he wins 5 out of those starts and has no decisions in the other 2 and ends with a 20-2 sub 3 era with around 130 k don't you think he'd at least garner some attention?

granted i don't think he's gunna get it cuz i don't think he'll finish 20-2... but still if the cards align themselves correctly, he does have a shot...albeit and outside shot.

brandonwarne52
08-21-2008, 02:21 AM
Ehh....nearly 1.40 WHIP and a 1.42 K/BB ratio.

Nah, I'll pass.

sboyajian
08-21-2008, 08:16 AM
I think Dice will end in the top 15.. that's it.. he'll get a couple votes, nothing more.

Lester will likely be in the top 5.. he should be able to finish with about a 16/17 - 4 record right around 3 ERA, has a very good K/BB ratio and a very low BA ..

What kills Lester is that he's had so many damn no decisions cuz of our bullpen (10 if I remember correctly)

RedSoxtober
08-21-2008, 08:31 AM
only 109 K's stop him really.Too many walks.

OMG we almost agree! :speechless:


15-2 with a 2.7 era.....cmon

No. Lee is 17-2, 2.43 with 65% more innings. From that perspective it's like comparing Beckett to Sabathia last year: they had similar numbers but CC pitched 25% more innings so you could say that he was the top pitcher over a longer period of time. On that alone Lee beats him.

As I noted (http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6348227&postcount=39) in the "RS CY/MVP" thread, Lee leads the league in most of the things that matter: wins, wpct, starter era, starter whip, etc. Dice-Ks numbers might get him into the conversation but it will be a short stay because Lee beats the same numbers that got Dice-K there and in every significant category after that.

lil'papi
08-21-2008, 08:36 AM
He needs to go 6innings per game to even qualify. He needs a inning per game played. That's 162 innings....he will struggle to get that with five inning starts.

He has some cy young type numbers not enough though.

If he wins out even the way he is going its hard to not give him consideration even though watching him hurts your frontal lobe.

Vthockeydad
08-21-2008, 08:52 PM
He has a great record, but has not been dominant at all. Too many pitches for innings pitched. I would guess he averages 6 innings per start. If the season were to end today, I think Lee would win it.
I am thrilled he is pitching for the Sox but I agree with some others, if a Sox pitcher were to win, Lester would have to be the choice.

Red_Sox_89
08-21-2008, 09:46 PM
Not quite.... doesn't have the innings to do it. He definitely has the potential to get it next year.

Tragedy
08-21-2008, 09:51 PM
Not quite.... doesn't have the innings to do it. He definitely has the potential to get it next year.
Well, he certainly has improved his game from last year. He used to get himself in trouble, and it turned out to be a poor overall night for him. Now he puts himself in jams, gets out of it, and is putting up quality numbers this year. Next year? Who knows, maybe he'll put it entirely together.

Raidaz4Life
08-21-2008, 10:27 PM
Not completely unlikely if he wins the rest of his starts and improves his K/BB ratio a tad more over the rest of the season

quiksilver2491
08-21-2008, 10:34 PM
Well, he certainly has improved his game from last year. He used to get himself in trouble, and it turned out to be a poor overall night for him. Now he puts himself in jams, gets out of it, and is putting up quality numbers this year. Next year? Who knows, maybe he'll put it entirely together.

Its not really that he got better though, last year he caught some bad breaks when he got into jams, this year nothing can seem to go wrong for him. He still scares me, he hasn't progressed much besides maybe being able to get out of jams, but I can guarantee that if he keeps that up it will catch up to him eventually.

beantown17
08-21-2008, 10:35 PM
I think that Lester deserves it more. Dice-k walks way too many people. And when you only go 5 innings every start, not only does that hurt your team that game, it also hurts your bullpen.

Now, I love Dice-k's stuff. He just needs to become more confident and attack the strike zone.

Lester has had an amazing year. I think the AL Cy Young will come down to Cliff Lee, Lester, and K-rod.

BoSoxGreen18
08-22-2008, 12:22 AM
ok now that the dead horse has been beat about dice giving up BB and not enough IP, we can move on and say that he deserves it just because his k/9 is solid, he has that sub-3 era which stands out... and for those who argue that he isn't feared by other teams may be right, however im not very scared of cliff lee either.

as for lester... he is just as deserving as anybody. he has really shown that he can shut teams down, and as a boston fan, i may have some bias but lester has been the stopper for this squad for a little while now and he has stepped up huge since becketts struggles, all sorts of injuries, the downfall of clay AND a shakey pen.

Tragedy
08-22-2008, 12:57 AM
Its not really that he got better though, last year he caught some bad breaks when he got into jams, this year nothing can seem to go wrong for him. He still scares me, he hasn't progressed much besides maybe being able to get out of jams, but I can guarantee that if he keeps that up it will catch up to him eventually.
But it technically that he DID get better.

2007: Got into jams, couldn't get out of them. Always had that "one inning".
2008: Constantly gets into jams, and gets out of them about 95% of the time. He's progressed in the sense that he has gotten himself out of the jams that he couldn't in 2008.

My point was nearly comical. He's still a sore to watch, but he's done a great job of doing what he could not do a year ago. Now I'm saying that he'll possible put it together and not only work his way out of jams next year, but put himself in far fewer heart attack situations.

RedSoxtober
08-22-2008, 09:06 AM
ok now that the dead horse has been beat about dice giving up BB and not enough IP, we can move on and say that he deserves it just because his k/9 is solid, he has that sub-3 era which stands out... and for those who argue that he isn't feared by other teams may be right, however im not very scared of cliff lee either.

You say this with such confidence that it's clear you have no clue about the stats themselves. If Dice-K's sub-3 era stands out, how much more does Lee's sub-2.5 era stand out? Dice-K's "solid" k/9 is not significantly better than Lee's either (it amounts to 11K on the season). So if I boil down what you're saying then Lee wins because he's better in the "deserving" stats and better in things like keeping runners off base (whip, k/bb, oba).


Player ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB OBA
Lee 2.43 1.08 7.14 5.42 .278
Dice-K 2.77 1.37 7.74 1.42 .331


as for lester... he is just as deserving as anybody. he has really shown that he can shut teams down, and as a boston fan, i may have some bias but lester has been the stopper for this squad for a little while now and he has stepped up huge since becketts struggles, all sorts of injuries, the downfall of clay AND a shakey pen.

In a year we may be debating Lester and Joba. This could be fun for a long time. I think that Lester deserves to be in the conversation but in the end he has too many NDs to win. The voter's reliace on W-L is a sad but established fact.

lil'papi
08-22-2008, 10:25 AM
He is the japanese version of criss angel .....and houdini is his middle name.
enough said.....

PapelbonLester
08-22-2008, 05:57 PM
he's deffently in the top 5. with lee, halladay, lester and JD from oakland

futureheisman
08-22-2008, 06:24 PM
cliff lee hands down

Towelie
08-22-2008, 07:10 PM
he's deffently in the top 5. with lee, halladay, lester and JD from oakland

Not really.

PapelbonLester
08-23-2008, 12:17 AM
Not really.

ok......hate on your own pitcher. just cause he makes us sweat as a fan his numbers are insane.

quiksilver2491
08-23-2008, 02:04 AM
But it technically that he DID get better.

2007: Got into jams, couldn't get out of them. Always had that "one inning".
2008: Constantly gets into jams, and gets out of them about 95% of the time. He's progressed in the sense that he has gotten himself out of the jams that he couldn't in 2008.

My point was nearly comical. He's still a sore to watch, but he's done a great job of doing what he could not do a year ago. Now I'm saying that he'll possible put it together and not only work his way out of jams next year, but put himself in far fewer heart attack situations.

The point im trying to make is I just don't see any progression besides in his luck. While his ERA is 2.77 this year it could just as easily be 4.40 like he had last year. His BABIP is extremely low at 2.64, last year it was 3.06. His Delta H/Delta R is -10/-12 last year it was 9/-3. His FIP is about 4.11 a bit better than it was last year at 4.23. His K/9 is 7.74, last year it was 8.84, his K/BB is 1.42, last year it was 2.51. WHIP has gone up a bit, HR rates down.

All in all it looks like he has been having some incredible luck this year and not much increase in peripheral stats. The Red Sox have played beyond ordinary defense when he is on the field, the difference in ERA and FIP is a lot. He has negative values for Delta stats which when negative show good luck and when postive show bad luck. BABIP spots regression at low rates which he has. It just seems to me he is better at some things this year, better at others last year, yet he seems like a completely new pitcher to people which he is not. The fact that he is even talked about in CY thread like this is amazing when in fact believe it or not Josh Beckett has been a better pitcher this year.

gcoll
08-23-2008, 06:23 AM
The best I could see Dice-K doing in Cy Young voting, is top 5.....maybe.

Too many walks, not enough innings.

lil'papi
08-23-2008, 09:41 AM
My problem with him is his penchant for making the BP work so many innings.

Luck is made. He made his luck he has always pitched this way even in Japan. He has his own formula which belies stats. I hate watching him....

But you can't take away his wins and era ...because you feel he is lucky.Better to be lucky than good.

He deserves cy young consideration , but lets see if his luck holds out first.;)

Osiagledknarf
08-23-2008, 11:02 AM
I can't dock him just because it makes me a nervous wreck to watch him pitch. I guess I'd put him top 10. His walks are horrendous...his strikeouts are average, and down from last year. He doesn't pitch the prerequisite number of innings...and lil'papi as absolutely right, Matsuzaka is murder on the bullpen.

All that being said, he does have really good movement on his pitches (albeit horrible control). His HR allowed is impressive though, for sure. His WHIP doesn't blow my mind either, but he's only allowed 97 hits in 126.2 innings, which is really good.

He's definitely not the Cy Young winner for me, for these reasons:

Cliff Lee (We have to figure he's going to get it anyway, right?)

Roy Halladay (Holy crap...he's been sick. He's lost a couple blowout games, but alot more of his losses have come with him giving up 2-4 runs. He shuts down the best lineups. His mound presence is dominant. He pitches complete games...alot. His ERA is great, his strikeouts are great, his walk totals are phenomenal. Put him on a decent team and he'd have been a 20 game winner this year...and the first pick for the Cy Young.)

Mike Mussina (Yes...I know, I'm sorry. But there's no denying what he's done this year for the Yankees. His strikeouts aren't great, but he's been pitching deep, his ERA is very good, and his walks are great. In a terrible year for Yankees pitching, he's kept them at least relevant.)

Justin Duchscherer (A disgusting ERA, decent IP, good control and good hits allowed. Simply put, he's very tough to beat and he pitches for a horrible team.)

Jon Lester (Very good IP, walks allowed, HR allowed, and decent strikeouts. He's been super tough to beat and has actually been a stopper on losing streaks. His ERA is great.)

James Shields (Good ERA and strikeouts, great IP and BB allowed. If you've seen him pitch, you know he can turn your happy baseball watching night into a bad experience. He's been a big piece of the Rays success.)

I think those guys all knock Matsuzaka out of the top 5 for me...but, I still love that we have him! He's defintely got the cards to at least be at the table...but I don't think he's got the numbers this year.

sboyajian
08-23-2008, 12:21 PM
ok......hate on your own pitcher. just cause he makes us sweat as a fan his numbers are insane.
no one is hating on him.. but he's not Cy Young candidate..

he has to many walks.. to low of innings..

Wins are not everything and that's really all he has.

He is top 15.. 10 if he's incredibly lucky..

Lester is top 5 right now.

lil'papi
08-24-2008, 08:41 AM
Oops, where's Lester now? :D

lil'papi
08-24-2008, 08:43 AM
The BEST pitcher in the AL is Halladay. Then Lee. Dicek will get consideration absolutely he will. I mean if his luck holds out.
Just because you get consideration doesn't make you a candidate. Think Hillary here......

Bronx77
08-24-2008, 12:00 PM
imo this man should be considered top 3 if not the cy young winner he is VERY overlooked and underrated even with that huge contract...

15-2 with a 2.77 era 109 stikeouts in only 126.2 innings pitched he's only given up 8 homers. idk tell me what you guys think. i see him and lester being top 5.

i say no chance at a top 3... while his record is impressive... he is borderline terrible in almost every start with the walks. He may be a top 10 but certainly NOT a top 3.

Ervin Santana, Mike Mussina & Cliff Lee are probably your top 3.

Osiagledknarf
08-24-2008, 07:29 PM
i say no chance at a top 3... while his record is impressive... he is borderline terrible in almost every start with the walks. He may be a top 10 but certainly NOT a top 3.

Ervin Santana, Mike Mussina & Cliff Lee are probably your top 3.


Haha...Moose has been great, but realistically there's no way he beats out Halladay for a top 3 spot.

Bronx77
08-24-2008, 09:55 PM
Haha...Moose has been great, but realistically there's no way he beats out Halladay for a top 3 spot.

Yes.. you are correct.. i think... i forgot about him when coming up with my top 3... however, with the yankees starters injuries and no posada and other major injuries, if Mussina wins 20 games.. i think he get more votes then Halladay. If the Blue Jays get hot... Halladay is the man here.

Osiagledknarf
08-25-2008, 12:04 AM
Yes.. you are correct.. i think... i forgot about him when coming up with my top 3... however, with the yankees starters injuries and no posada and other major injuries, if Mussina wins 20 games.. i think he get more votes then Halladay. If the Blue Jays get hot... Halladay is the man here.

Eh...the Jays have their own set of woes...managerial shake up, horrible line up, Halladay gets sporadic run support. Anyway you slice it, I think Halladay is better than Mussina, and gets more votes.

Nighthawk
08-25-2008, 01:29 AM
Hell, Cliff Lee hasnt shown one bit that he is a fluke. Hes the real deal. Dice-K could only win if he wins out and Lee struggles BIG TIME. It looks like Lee will win AL and Webb/CC will battle it out for the NL

celticfan
08-25-2008, 10:52 AM
I think that Lee has been to impressive to overlook. Has 18 wins for an awful team. I think that Lee wins at least 21 games

Osiagledknarf
08-26-2008, 01:31 AM
Hell, Cliff Lee hasnt shown one bit that he is a fluke. Hes the real deal. Dice-K could only win if he wins out and Lee struggles BIG TIME. It looks like Lee will win AL and Webb/CC will battle it out for the NL


No one's coming close to Webb in the NL.

lil'papi
08-26-2008, 09:45 AM
He evidently disagrees.....


http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/2008/08/23/breaking-down-the-nl-cy-young-webb-vs-lincecum/

Osiagledknarf
08-26-2008, 10:03 AM
I read the article...and he makes great points...but he also makes my argument for me when he says:

"Yes, I know Brandon Webb has 19 victories. Webb could become the first NL pitcher to win 25 games since Steve Carlton in 1972. And he’s pitching like it’ll happen. (Yikes, 6-0 in his last six starts, 1.60 ERA over that span.)"

Lincecum is ridiculous right now, no doutb...but it's tough to argue with what Webb is doing. That's my view at least.

Cronin
08-26-2008, 10:11 AM
Dice for CY and Youk for MVP!

Osiagledknarf
08-26-2008, 10:22 AM
Heh...yeah, yeah.