View Full Version : Jermaine Oneal Impact

Master P
07-23-2008, 11:27 PM
For those of you who are interested, I did a mathematically study how of having both the Jermaine O'Neal will impact the Raptors. Basically I took the games TJ Ford was injured for last season, and then eliminated Rasho's contribution and determined JO's contribution. The study went far enough to use Jermaine's averages from his good years (02-05) and his bad years (05-08). Check out the study at:



07-23-2008, 11:47 PM

Highlights of the study:

- Study period Record with Rasho: 14 – 12
- Study period Record with O'Neal: 20 – 6
- Celtics study period Record: 19 – 7

- Projected Season Record with Rasho: 44 – 38
- Projected Season Record with O'Neal: 63 - 19

- Home Record with Rasho: 7 – 5
- Home Record with O'Neal: 9 - 3
- Road Record with Rasho: 7 - 7
- Road Record with O'Neal: 11 – 3
- East Opponent with Rasho: 8 – 6
- East Opponent with O'Neal: 9 – 3
- West Opponent with Rasho: 6 – 6
- West Opponent with O'Neal: 9 – 3
- +.500 Opponent with Rasho: 5 – 8
- +.500 Opponent with O'Neal: 7 – 6
- -.500 Opponent with Rasho: 9 – 4
- -.500 Opponent with O'Neal: 13 – 0
- Longest Winning Streak with Rasho: 3
- Longest Winning Streak with O'Neal: 7
- Longest Losing Streak with Rasho: 3
- Longest Losing Streak with O'Neal: 1

Wow, that's pretty good lol

07-23-2008, 11:47 PM
The Article is actually pretty well done.

07-23-2008, 11:50 PM
The Article Also mentions the new jersey's..

Raptors New Look

Just days after Shaq was photographed wearing an old-school, purple trim Raptors jersey, fans can now focus on the teams new 3rd uniform. Here is Jose Calderon showing off possible looks, however, rumours indicate the team will unveil a black uniform with red trim along the lines of the bottom middle image. Look for the Raptors to sport this new look for twelve games next season.

07-23-2008, 11:57 PM
Good to see all the good new posters in the Raptors forum. Welcome guys!

07-24-2008, 12:29 AM
Well done Master P it will definitly be an exciting year. Although I do suspect you have a little too much time on your hands. I for one will comment next May about how the Raptors fared in 08/09. I love hearing all the positive ideas/threads but there is no way of knowing what is going to happen until the season plays itself out. All this talk about if JO is healthy all year, CB4 healthy all year???????????Who knows who will be healthy next year? Maybe Bargs will take that huge leap frwrd next year???Who knows? The resigning of Calderone is a fantastic move .....good ridence TJ (tried to take over way too many games for a guy with a less than proven track record 3pt fg% slightly more than his weight but not much this is for all you tj lovers to grow a hate on for me but I dont Give a fck, tj good luck in Indy) anyways enough about that. What scares me is a Jose injury at the same time as a JO/CB injury pick one or the other dont matter. Injury is a fact of sport it happens I'm surprised in didn't happen in Celtic land last year but seems to me that Toronto is cursed when it comes to injuries. Maybe Wince Carter aka wc15 or dub c15 what ever made it all the rage at the t. Injuries worry me with a lack of depth that we will have next year. Anyways a long story that meant to be short but turned out to be a long one anyways, our team is a lot more "shallower" than it has been in recent years so I just want our players to do what they do best.
Jose create
Parker quick turn arounds/3's/drive
Bosh......just be Bosh
Oneal be the player I hated years ago when we played you welcome to T.O
Moon please slash please dunk please get some ft's please shoot the ball avg close to 50% when he shot
Kapono shoot shoot shoot shoot you lead the league in 3%
Hump your a role player not a star
Bargs relax your keeping raps fans on the edge of their seat with your potential
Joey attack/hustle
Jawaii welcome to Toronto have fun I hope you learn lots
Roko about damn time you got here have fun rook

The Wise 1
07-24-2008, 01:22 AM
The only problem I see and maybe I just misread but if you subtracted Rasho's FGM and added Oneal's FGM, I have a question that could damge the formula. Where did all the extra possessions come from? Oneal took way more shots and therefor would take away other people's FGA.

Master P
07-24-2008, 01:34 AM
I accounted for that. lets say rasho took 6 shots in one game. the one oneal study had him average 18. that's a difference of 12 shots. so what you are worried is that this would mean the raptors would magically have 12 more field goal attempts. i thought of this also, and here is how i worked around that.

lets say the raptors went 36 for 72. Rasho took 6 shots, lets say making 3. so first I eliminate rasho, bringing the raptors down to 33 of 66 (for a 50% team average. then i would subtract the difference between rasho's field goal attempts and JO average field goal attempts (in this case 12 shots). this would bring the raptors field goal attempts down to 54, and using their actual FG % from the game their field goal attempts made would drop to 27. then add JO's average field goals made and attempted and the new raptors would go 35 for 72 that game. offensive rebounds compared to rasho also played in, as the raptors could get 1 or 2 extra field goal attempts per game, but that's all.

Master P
07-24-2008, 01:35 AM
also, yes i do have too much time on my hands...im only working part time this summer. ah well.

07-24-2008, 04:04 AM
Everbody is talking about Jermaine O'Neal stats what about his impact on this team practise time?

I Seen a lot of posts in the past in this forum on how the raptors needed to get an assistant couch for the bigs and especially andrea bargnani.

I see Jermaine O'Neal more than just stats filler but also a teacher and mentor to Andrea Bargnani and Nathan Jawai.

What Bargnani lacks is mental toughness and if you heard Jermaine O'Neal interviews thats all he talks about as the major impact on every player, so i think he will be a great mentor for Andrea.

07-24-2008, 06:52 AM
what sucks is that even with JO, we're still 7-6 against teams +.500

07-24-2008, 11:52 AM
JO is going to have a big impact, if he gets 15-10-2 blocks, his production will still be more valuable than that of TJ Ford just simply based on the amount of the load that will be taken off of Bosh's back.

I think JO will be healthy and play around 70 games, I believe his story about his injury and that he is healthy now. It's an exciting time to be a Raptors fan, I can't wait until opening night, I'll be there :D

Well done article.

07-24-2008, 12:14 PM
Well done, thorough article.

Only thing that you obviously can't calculate is the effect of surrounding teamates, motivation and maturity/ age, coaching, specific role differences, level of competition, etc - that will ultimately have a major affect on the Raptor's/ O'Neal's production and results.

07-24-2008, 12:15 PM
63-19 ?

07-24-2008, 12:18 PM

Wow, that's pretty good lol

This is a good detailed study, but there are still many factors that aren't included. Such as injuries. Not just to JO, but to anyone on the team.

There is no way the Raptors will win 63 games this year, but 50 isn't out of the question at all. They could be a tough team this year if most of their top players can stay healthy & gel. Also, I don't expect Calderon to perform quite as well as he did in relief of Ford last season. He will still be a darn good PG, but when Ford went down Calderon was playing as the top PG in the NBA -- up there with Chris Paul. And I simply don't see him maintaining that torrid pace. That's no knock on him, just reality. With that being said, he is a solid bet to average a double double this season.

07-24-2008, 12:49 PM
I can see JO getting numebrs such as 16 9 and 2 blocks in 32-34 minutes a game.

07-24-2008, 08:04 PM
It was a very interesting article. It gives us a better picture of what we would have looked liked in 07-08. But this is a new year and players are that much older/experienced. Take in the fact that when you have a guy like JO on the team the whole style and strategy change. There are many confounding variables in that study. But again it gives us a better picture and room for optimism. I think the most important thing is that Smitch spend the entire offseason thinking up ways to utilize the skills of both JO and CB4 along with the rest of the team. It would be nice if JO helps this upcoming year in the WIN column but I would take that study with a grain of salt ...

Good read though ...

07-24-2008, 08:11 PM
JO is going to avg 51.2 ppg, 29.7 rpg, 15.8 apg and a surprisingly high 60.4 bpg

07-24-2008, 08:22 PM
JO is going to avg 51.2 ppg, 29.7 rpg, 15.8 apg and a surprisingly high 60.4 bpg

i understand trying to be comical but this isn't even funny..

07-25-2008, 01:43 AM
i understand trying to be comical but this isn't even funny..

it wasnt meant to be funny milhouse.

Master P
07-25-2008, 02:59 AM
i thought it was funny.

07-25-2008, 08:29 AM
Good analysis. If raptors win over 60 games this season, its sure feels like the days when blue jays won the AL East, which they haven't done for so so so many years.

But, to achieve an accurate statistical comparison, wouldn't the rosters of all the other teams need to be modified as well?

For instance, 76ers stats would be improved dramatically.

How would that change the odds?

Master P
07-25-2008, 10:57 AM
i am not crazy enough to start figuring out other teams. the level of competition was pretty high during the study period, with the western roadtrip, lakers coming to town, two games against the celtics and pistons.

07-25-2008, 11:08 AM
Big time deal, One thing if he stay healthy he will be big Impact on your team.

07-25-2008, 10:13 PM
Big time deal, One thing if he stay healthy he will be big Impact on your team.

Yup, healthy is the key word.