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View Full Version : Something off with Paps?



knittingmill
07-07-2008, 09:50 AM
not just because of last night... and yes, he's still great but his era has doubled over time. I've seen him totally relying on his fastball that hitters are able to foul off and finally catch up with or draw a walk or just chew up a lotta pitches. I think he can't just get by on his fastball anymore and should be going to offspeed stuff more often.

sboyajian
07-07-2008, 10:31 AM
It's because he's had to shoulder more responsiblity with a terrible bullpen in front of him.

RedSoxtober
07-07-2008, 10:57 AM
It's because he's had to shoulder more responsiblity with a terrible bullpen in front of him.

I disagree. Only six of 38 appearances have gone longer than one inning (all of them four outs), and all but two of those occurred before May 5. The first was more about getting work in -- he'd not appeared for a week and had a day off scheduled the following day. The second was similar -- 1.1IP after having thrown only 1IP in 9 days. His blown saves never followed one of these extended sessions; they typically came on several days rest.

I believe that there are two factors at play right now. First, teams really know what to expect from him. If you can go up and guess straight fastball and be right half the time then you're going to start to have some success. This is a little concerning but hardly time to worry. Second, he's still in the 'preservation stage' of their use. His workload is more irregular because of the crappy MR/SU work (he's not needed when they've blown the game already) and the Sox are more interested in preserving him for later in the season.

By mid-August we'll probably see him every other day and he'll be throwing another pitch. The regular work will help him find the groove he's had in the past.

And let's keep in mind... we're talking about a guy who has been scored upon only ten times this season... two of those times being unearned runs. His ERA is only 2.39 which puts him about 7th among MLB closers, and that's after giving up a pair of runs over two games to the team that's seen him more than any other in MLB.

sboyajian
07-07-2008, 12:36 PM
I mean pressure wise.. Paps is generally a very intense person.. but he doesn't cope with negative pressure.. he get's worked up very easily.. on and off the field..

I think he's trying to shoulder to much and 10% of his brain is not currently on the mound with him.

Ewagner
07-07-2008, 01:00 PM
I mean pressure wise.. Paps is generally a very intense person.. but he doesn't cope with negative pressure.. he get's worked up very easily.. on and off the field..

I think he's trying to shoulder to much and 10% of his brain is not currently on the mound with him.


10% seems all he has left:D i don't think there is a lot to worry about. i think is a lot of everything. he's not coming in with three run leads. everything is kind of crapping the bed right now. i'm not worried about paps at all. that kid just fought off a lot pitches and finally got one. plus they haven't seen a lot of that kid i'm sure they will be ready the next time. sorry i don't remember that kids name and really don't feel like looking it up.

BeAn 5 ToWnE
07-07-2008, 01:04 PM
He has a new pitch, the slutter.

RedSoxtober
07-07-2008, 04:29 PM
He has a new pitch, the slutter.

A year ago that was 'new'.

J-DAWGS SOX
07-07-2008, 06:42 PM
couldnt find exact stat, but he's allowing alot of baserunners compared to innings pitched. he dont seem to be putting people away when he gets ahead of batters like we are used to seeing. imo, he will be fine in the end.

BeAn 5 ToWnE
07-08-2008, 01:50 AM
A year ago that was 'new'.

Well, still cracks me up. :p

Anyways, just saying.

lil'papi
07-08-2008, 07:50 AM
The difference is really simple, teams know him and his antics during last year set people the wrong way. They don't like him.
They try a tad harder now. He is also not throwing as hard at times. Not sure why use is certainly a factor.
He needs to shut up and pitch , one Schilling is enough. Plus he has "zilch" in the wisdom department.

He's fine. ;)

RedSoxtober
07-08-2008, 09:11 AM
Okay, let's get this in perspective. A year ago yesterday (7/7/07), Papelbon blew a save in DET. It was his first blow save of the year but he already had a pair of losses. He was 0-2, 1.93 with 20 saves, 46k/10bb/18h/32.2ip. He had 32 apperances in 86 games (39%).

This year: 3-3, 2.33, 26 saves (4BS), 49k/7bb/28h/38.2IP. 39 appearances in 91 games (43%).

The two main differences appear to be that the Sox have played a week longer (5 more games) and more games with SVO. Otherwise the numbers are really far too similar to quibble about.

lil'papi
07-08-2008, 09:35 AM
Yeah, for sure he is fine. Guys just are more comfortable against him and I'm sure it's because of seeing him.

In 2006 he had six blown saves in 68+ innings , but less SVO's. 35-41
2007 he had three blown saves 37-40- 58 innings pitched....

He will be a little different every year in how they use him. This year his river dance has different steps.

..........innings are less but more SVO's. 26-30 just over half way.

He's fine. Once they settle the pen he will get better imo.

Superiority
07-08-2008, 09:33 PM
he has mediocre stuff, and if teams catch up to his fastball, he's got nothing left. Especially if his velocity is off.

papipapsmanny
07-08-2008, 10:00 PM
haha that isnt true at all his splitter is nasty, a great 97 mph fastball and a decent change

he has great stuff

knittingmill
07-08-2008, 10:18 PM
tonight i think he threw all fastballs and punto's at-bat was exactly what i'm talking about. is 'tek not calling anything else? is paps shaking him off? i don't get it.

Sc00py
07-08-2008, 11:09 PM
couldnt find exact stat, but he's allowing alot of baserunners compared to innings pitched. he dont seem to be putting people away when he gets ahead of batters like we are used to seeing. imo, he will be fine in the end.

His Whip is about .91?? how does your "a lot of baserunners" theory make sense??

Plain and simple, he has to throw a secondary pitch. He has to start throwing something other than his fastball 100% of the time!

Sc00py
07-08-2008, 11:13 PM
he has mediocre stuff, and if teams catch up to his fastball, he's got nothing left. Especially if his velocity is off.

Haha, ignorant Yankee fan. Of course he has mediocre stuff. That is why he has a 2 ERA over the last couple years. Idiot.

SHONIE
07-09-2008, 12:38 AM
I wouldn't be too worried about Paps. He's already extremely consistent. We already know he's clutch. What more do you want from him? Sure he's not riding a sub-1 ERA, but he doesn't need to be perfect. You may be expecting too much of him. He's only human.

lil'papi
07-09-2008, 07:52 AM
he has mediocre stuff, and if teams catch up to his fastball, he's got nothing left. Especially if his velocity is off.

Mediocre stuff?

Please ...who do you root for?

He is nasty ask any team in either league. He runs his FB's hard either direction he has a sick split, he has a nice change of pace. He is even throwing at times a cutter.
What is mediocre about his line?

His only flaw now is he is pulling his pants up to high not sure about that look. :eyebrow:

RedSoxtober
07-09-2008, 09:04 AM
he has mediocre stuff, and if teams catch up to his fastball, he's got nothing left. Especially if his velocity is off.

Interesting that that mediocre stuff has produced such great results.

Rivera's first 3 seasons as a reliever:
17-7, 84sv, 234k/71bb/240.2ip, 1.98era

Papelbon's service (tail end of 2005 + start of 2008 ~ roughly one season)
11-9, 99sv, 243k/52bb/200.1ip, 1.75era

I have no idea if Papelbon will continue to be as successful as he has. Like Rivera he concentrates on one primary pitch, everyone knows it's coming, and yet he remains successful.

lil'papi
07-09-2008, 09:14 AM
^^ but he doesn't pull his pants over his head. (rivera) Maybe paps can't see the signals from tek with 'em ridin so high?

anyone got farrells email.......

Superiority
07-10-2008, 01:45 AM
ok if his stuff is so "Great" and nothing is wrong why have a "Something off with Paps?" thread?

RedSoxtober
07-10-2008, 09:45 AM
ok if his stuff is so "Great" and nothing is wrong why have a "Something off with Paps?" thread?

For the same reason that the Yankee forum had "Is Mo done?" threads two years in a row when Rivera had terrible Aprils.



G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Apr '07 9 0 1 2 1 0 0 7.2 11 9 9 1 3 8 10.57 1.83 .333
Apr '06 8 0 0 2 4 0 0 9.2 10 4 4 0 2 7 3.72 1.24 .270
Apr '05 7 0 2 1 3 0 0 6.2 8 6 2 1 4 6 2.70 1.80 .276


It's possible to get concerned about short term performance problems without thinking that their stuff is bad. Maybe a legit question is whether "something off with Paps" suggests an injury, overuse, ... There are lots of reasons why "something might be off" that have nothing to do with stuff.

But while you're still hanging around, please go back and deal with the facts. In this case (as with Rivera's the past three seasons) the numbers have settled in to be nearly identical to what they have been at this point in the season. k-rate, whip, etc are all within a small tolerance of where they were in 2007 and 2006. Given that he was one of the top closers in the game for those seasons, what does that suggest to you?

Superiority
07-10-2008, 01:08 PM
http://www.inside-edge.com/teams/allstars_al07/reports/p8.htm


ok...while his stuff may be above mediocre, i still would not call it "nasty"

according to Inside edge his slider has a "Small Break" and last year alone hitters hit .429 off of his "nasty" slider. Meanwhile teams hit .214 off of his great splitter, which is average in the Major Leagues. Bottom line, It's no wonder he throws 10 straight fastballs to someone like Nick Punto.


he has a nice change of pace.

funny, isn't that what everyone was complaining about regarding Papelbon, his basic non-use of his secondary pitches?

knittingmill
07-10-2008, 03:17 PM
of course, the same can be asked about beckett but there the differences are so complex that what's the point.

sboyajian
07-10-2008, 03:24 PM
ok if his stuff is so "Great" and nothing is wrong why have a "Something off with Paps?" thread?

because apparently the thoughts and opinions of the single person who made the thread suggests that everyone else feels the same way.

RedSoxtober
07-10-2008, 03:54 PM
http://www.inside-edge.com/teams/allstars_al07/reports/p8.htm


ok...while his stuff may be above mediocre, i still would not call it "nasty"

according to Inside edge his slider has a "Small Break" and last year alone hitters hit .429 off of his "nasty" slider. Meanwhile teams hit .214 off of his great splitter, which is average in the Major Leagues. Bottom line, It's no wonder he throws 10 straight fastballs to someone like Nick Punto.

1. I might be worried about .429 if it represented more than 7 AB. Go look up 'sample size'.

2. "Average" on his splitter at .214... on 14 AB.

3. Interesting that you'd ignore his dominant fastball (.130) and the overall success (.163).

4. I'm also curious to know how the 2007 pitches scouted impacts the question of what's going on today. Are you suggesting that he's done nothing to change his approach or refine his pitches?

lil'papi
07-11-2008, 08:38 AM
http://www.inside-edge.com/teams/allstars_al07/reports/p8.htm


ok...while his stuff may be above mediocre, i still would not call it "nasty"

according to Inside edge his slider has a "Small Break" and last year alone hitters hit .429 off of his "nasty" slider. Meanwhile teams hit .214 off of his great splitter, which is average in the Major Leagues. Bottom line, It's no wonder he throws 10 straight fastballs to someone like Nick Punto.



funny, isn't that what everyone was complaining about regarding Papelbon, his basic non-use of his secondary pitches?

Go re-read what I said. please.......his slider is "nasty" are you quoting me? I never said it.....

I said he has NASTY stuff based on performance and other teams success against him. He throws what works for him that particular night. Rivera throws one pitch. He is NASTY too.

You always work off the FB ...so secondaries are setup pitches for the FB. When he runs two seamers away and four seamers in on your hands, you might see where nasty comes from.

I'm NOT complaining about his use of secondaries either. He has been real successful with as you say mediocre stuff. Which BTW is laughable....

He changes pace well too. One FB is 93mph the next 97mph in case thats not listed in some stat. :eyebrow:

Is he perfect heck no. 97mph with late life is nasty in my book.