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Thread: Bryce Harper

  1. #16
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    I highly doubt his BABIP will be this low all season long. If his numbers continue in this direction it might hurt him slightly during free agency but teams will be playing for his youth, potential, and what he can do for them in the future and not past production.

  2. #17
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    He's pretty much had an excellent career up to this point. 400 million good? Not a chance. He's had one MVP type of season, and people think he's going to paid like that. I don't expect it at all.

    Using Fangraphs WAR, and Fangraphs rating, here's his career before this season.

    2012 139 games/4.4/All Star player

    2013 118 games/4.1/All Star player

    2014 100 games/1.6/Role player

    2015 153 games/9.3/MVP player

    2016 153 games/3.0/Solid to Good player

    2017 147 games/4.9/All Star player

    He's also missed a ton of games over his career. Fluke injuries or not, he has still missed a substantial amount of playing time.

    I'm also not a big fan of overpaying a player for something he did with another team in the past. I know he's still very young, but I would cap his contract at about 250-300. This is going to be the year that we find out if last years market was the beginning of a new FA market, or just an unusual off season.

  3. #18
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    He's an elite talent.

    The Trout comparisons need to stop though, unless something changes. Nobody's in the same sentence as Trout. Not Harper, not any current player. There's a handful of guys that have the capability to amass some Trout-esque seasons; nobody at this juncture can realistically hope to match his achievements on a consistent year in, year out basis though.

    I mean, you can even make the case if you squint hard enough that Harper is the closest, but he's still not close. Which speaks only to the greatness of Trout, and doesn't diminish any of these other guys whatsoever.


  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    Honestly he should do what trout did and just take a big deal now and bank on himself later... health/sub par season for what he should be.. He will get top dollar nomatter what he does but he isnt coming close to 400 million like he was expected. At this point MM will get the bigger contract and rightfully so. Bryce Harper even if he is unlucky continues to disappoint in terms of what he should be... This is suppose to be a top 2 player in the game and he isnt/hasnt been. We can use advanced stats all we want but he isnt what he should be esp when you factor how good he thinks he is which he isnt. He will def get paid and rightfully so but he isnt touching 300 million let alone 400.
    No way he takes the QO. Even if Harper is only a 5 win guy, he is still only 25 (soon to be 26). That's an incredibly valuable player on the open market.

    He is looking at 30 AAV no matter what, same with Machado

    As for who has been better between the two.

    Machado had the better 2016, and has been better so far this year. 2014 they were about equal (edge to Machado for defense). Otherwise, Harper is the better player (2012, 2013 - though Machado had the WAR, the offensive differences are too much, 2015, and 2017.

    We'll see how both play out the rest of this year, but both are 30 AAV guys right now.

    As for the comps to Trout, they should stop with Harper and Trout unless Harper can show he can consistently play like it's 2015.


    I think Harper gets himself into trouble by being a little too patient at the plate though. Takes some pitches he probably shouldn't.

  5. #20
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    If he has a sub-par year he will ask for an opt out in the contract - no doubt.
    Baseball Maverick: How Sandy Alderson Revolutionized Baseball and Revived the Mets
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  6. #21
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    350 million over 10 years.

    Averages 4.5 WAR a season and it's worth it. He has potential for plenty of 7-8 WAR seasons. Even a down year for him in his prime is 3 WAR so that's not much risk, unless he has a huge season ending injury early in season. But you can't give contract on that assumption

  7. #22
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    He's still gonna get paid

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  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    TBH you guys are the same guys arguing him for years but at the same time his potential is enormous but he either gets injured or underachieves in terms of what he should be... yes he will end up at 5war but he gets talked about like a 9 war player.


    Bryce harper the 400 million dollar man is hitting 226... I am all for advanced stats but 226 says a ton. He has been talked about on mike trout levels and never lives up to the hype and there is always excuses.
    I basically agree with all of this.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    even for their careers he hasnt... he has the best season compared to the 2 but MM has been more consistent.
    Harper- .381 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 28.7 WAR

    Machado- .348 wOBA, 118 wRC+, 26.6 WAR

  10. #25
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    Consistentcy is why if I were a GM I wouldn't be paying 400 mil to either Machado or Harper. Neither player is worth that contract but right now Machado should be in line to get a bigger deal than Harper imo. Can't trust these guys to be consistently great. Only player who would be worth close to $400 mil today is Mike Trout. 2018 WAR: Harper .8 War, Machado 1.8 WAR because of his defensive stats I guess, Trout 6.1 WAR, Max Muncy 1.7 WAR...lmao.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    350 million over 10 years.

    Averages 4.5 WAR a season and it's worth it. He has potential for plenty of 7-8 WAR seasons. Even a down year for him in his prime is 3 WAR so that's not much risk, unless he has a huge season ending injury early in season. But you can't give contract on that assumption
    300 mil is the max I would offer over 10 years. An elite season every now and then doesn't warrant a paycheck bigger than Mike Trout's AAV. Yasiel Puig has a better WAR this season (.9) than Harper does lmao and he batted .188 in April. lol. BTW I know Harper is a better all around player than Puig. Just saying, Harper isn't performing much better than the notable alternative RF that will be available this offseason.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rush View Post
    Harper- .381 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 28.7 WAR

    Machado- .348 wOBA, 118 wRC+, 26.6 WAR
    MTM must be going off of rWAR, not fWAR.

    Harper - 26.9 rWAR
    Machado - 29.8 rWAR

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by otatop View Post
    MTM must be going off of rWAR, not fWAR.

    Harper - 26.9 rWAR
    Machado - 29.8 rWAR
    Its fine really... MM has been the more consistent and there is value in that from year to year... Even if they are equal throughout the years the hype train for harper is about 100 times bigger.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    Its fine really... MM has been the more consistent and there is value in that from year to year... Even if they are equal throughout the years the hype train for harper is about 100 times bigger.
    Harper

    12- .352 wOBA/121 wRC+
    13- .371 wOBA/137 wRC+
    14- .338 wOBA/115 wRC+
    15- .461 wOBA/197 wRC+
    16- .343 wOBA/112 wRC+
    17- .416 wOBA/156 wRC+
    18- .361 wOBA/127 wRC+

    Machado

    12- .317 wOBA/97 wRC+
    13- .325 wOBA/102 wRC+
    14- .332 wOBA/111 wRC+
    15- .370 wOBA/135 wRC+
    16- .366 wOBA/130 wRC+
    17- .328 wOBA/102 wRC+
    18- .395 wOBA/153 wRC+

    Machado hasn't been that consistent either if you think about it. Even when Harper isn't having a superhuman season he still puts up equivalent production.

  15. #30
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    Yeah, I dunno what all this noise about Machado being consistent is coming from

    There was talk last year that he wouldn't be able to get a big deal because of how awful he started the year.

    A year ago today, he had a .714 OPS and a .292 OBP. He's never had a .360 OBP, and twice he's had a .500 slugging.

    Last year was a drag for Machado, and this year is looking like a career year.

    Harper has a lot of that too.

    Neither is consistent at all.

    Trout is consistent. Kris Bryant is consistent. Harper and Machado are not.

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