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  1. #436
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillyeaglesman View Post
    Man I was just a pup back then haha. Barely even posted, mustíve been when I first started here. I donít think I even knew what a prospect was back then. Didnít really get into draft stuff until a few years ago.

    Time flies.
    It's quite remarkable how much has changed in the last decade. Just looking at the thread titles gives a good indication of the direction of the franchise at that time and the things that were happening. Here are some notable things and trends:

    - Briere was injured. A lot. Basically every page you flip through has a thread titled "Briere Out X-Y weeks" or "Briere Injured Again" or "How Do We Replace Briere?". I forgot how often he was injured and how the organization would literally seek trades to replace him for weeks at a time.

    - Giroux was one of the only prospects we hit on/kept around. There was much less talk about prospects at that time, which I believe was more a reflection on Holmgren's inability to draft, especially after the first round. Most guys that were hyped up never panned out. A lot of talk about Ratchuk, Bodrov, Downie, Sbisa, Randy Jones, etc. who just never made it to the orange and black full time after a lot of hype. Some just weren't talented enough, while others were never given a chance, but most were used as trade pieces.

    - We were connected a lot of big names via trade and free agency. Some names include Pronger, Lecavalier, Forsberg, Shanahan, and Bouwmeester. Pronger was rumored well before the trade happened, Lecavalier was rumored well before he signed here as a free agent. Most here tossed around the idea of trading for him with pieces like JVR and even Giroux or Carter. Forsberg and Shanahan both looked to make comebacks and had both discussed it with the Flyers and it seemed pretty close to happening for both. Bouwmeester was forever rumored in trade talks with the Flyers.

    - Cap space was always an issue. Once every off-season started a thread would pop up titled "How Do We Get Under the Cap", or something along those lines. That continued year after year and it was incredible the loopholes this organization had to jump through in order to get cap compliant. Man, what a stressful time.



    It's quite incredible to see the drastic difference in the direction of the franchise from then 'til now. When Holmgren took over for Clarke it was very apparent that he would make any acquisition he could to put the team in a win-now status. It shows by how often we were linked to this big name player and this trade and making all of these moves happen and being up against the cap each and every year. It was exciting, but not sustainable. I miss the excitement of contending for a cup and making bold trades and free agent signings, but I surely don't miss seeing prospects and assets be traded away for aging veterans on the backend of their careers on insane contracts. It happened a lot and it was actually impressive.

    I will say that we all grew accustomed to that style of management and it probably lends to the frustration we all feel now. I know for certain that I miss feeling like we would actually go out and sign Tavares to a max contract at $13 million per year because we all know Homer would have done it in a heartbeat. Again, it was exciting, but not sustainable. We are now at the opposite end of the spectrum where our prospects are actually developed and grown through the system at a (very) slow pace. The aggressive trades and signings aren't there and this is now a team largely built from within. It's a different kind of excitement, though, and that's what I'm holding on to right now. I can't remember the last time the core pieces of our team that are what make successful franchises were actually grown from within (1C, 1D, elite goalie). Couturier, Patrick, Provorov, Ghost, and Hart are the foundation pieces and will all pretty soon be the established core and all of them have been grown from within the organization. I do realize that Hart is yet to play an NHL game, but I'm a believer and really do think he will be a game changer for this franchise.

    This has been a process, but at least pieces are coming together. This isn't to say that the organization isn't without faults and Hextall still has a lot to prove this off-season, but looking back on what was, I can say that even though this is been a grueling, patient process, the foundation is set for this team to be something special and we are in position to actually make those big trades and free agent signings mean something more than that just a one-year-wonder. That's what has me excited. And maybe Hextall isn't the man to take it to that next level, but I'm willing to give him this off-season to prove he is more than just a drafter and developer. He has the opportunity to make moves that will take this team to the next level and fill holes that desperately need filling, so hopefully he can pull it off. I will keep in mind that he can only control what he can control, but the best GMs have a way of getting it done.

  2. #437
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace23 View Post
    Again, you're looking at 3 drafts. The Hockey News looked at about 50. Sample size matters.

    The other thing that's getting lost here is that Hextall doesn't draft in a vacuum. There are 29 (now 30) other GMs who are trying to do the same damn thing he is: find high quality NHL players.

    The fact that, in his worst rounds (2 & 3, by your reasoning), he is doing that at a rate that is triple the league-wide historical average is significant.
    Exactly. Of all things to be critical of Hextall, his success rate in the draft should be the last on that list.
    Last edited by CasperX22; 05-12-2018 at 11:16 AM.

  3. #438
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace23 View Post
    Also, has anyone heard tbs rumor that Pittsburgh may take a run at Tavares?

    Move Haegelin & Letang for futures/young assets. Use that money to sign Tavares at a "discount" because he wants to win.

    Roll out a top-6 of:

    Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Tavares, Guentzel & Hornqvist.

    Because Pittsburgh needs another Hall of Fame caliber forward.
    I don't want to say it won't happen, but it seems pretty ridiculous to think that they could pull that off. Could you even imagine 3 lines being centered by Crosby, Malkin, and JT? Words can't even really describe that. Pittsburgh would have no defense to speak of, but who needs defense when you can roll out JT as your 3rd line center?

  4. #439
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    I can't see "Come in as our 3rd Line Center" and "Let us sign you at a discount" working out.

  5. #440
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCSaint View Post
    I can't see "Come in as our 3rd Line Center" and "Let us sign you at a discount" working out.
    When the other side of that is, come join the GOAT and try and help us win a 3rd title in 4 years. I think they have a solid chance.

  6. #441
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCSaint View Post
    I can't see "Come in as our 3rd Line Center" and "Let us sign you at a discount" working out.
    Depends what is motivation is. Loyalty to the franchise that drafted him, money, location, or winning a title. If winning a title is his primary motive it certainly makes sense to take a little less if he thinks Pittsburgh is the best place to do that.

  7. #442
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    Quote Originally Posted by CasperX22 View Post
    Depends what is motivation is. Loyalty to the franchise that drafted him, money, location, or winning a title. If winning a title is his primary motive it certainly makes sense to take a little less if he thinks Pittsburgh is the best place to do that.
    Eh...this also isnít the NBA where the average salary is $10M.

    I think thatíd be an easier pill to swallow if the discount heíd take would still be a really great salary. I just donít see PIT being able to clear enough cap to make that plausible.

    I think heís more likely to end up somewhere like SJ where they can contend and heíd still make a ton of money and be THE guy.

    Vegas also makes a ton of sense. They have a boat load of cap space and whether itís a fluke or not, theyíre contending this year. Imagine them signing Tavares and then using Tavares to lure Karlsson to the team the following season.

  8. #443
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    Again, you're looking at 3 drafts. The Hockey News looked at about 50. Sample size matters.
    50 years ago, 95% of NHL players were canadian. if that's your data, it's less than worthless.

    180 draft picks over 3 years is a large enough sample (imo), but if you want a few more, here goes:

    2008 (11): voynov, josi, weircoch, stepan, hamonic, scandella, markstrom, allen, stone, smith, henrique
    2007 (5): subban, simmonds, dadonov, weber, killorn
    2006 (10): neuvirth, mcginn, kulemin, petri, lucic, anisimov, enroth, mcbain, mason, marchand,
    --- those are the years i looked at previously to got my estimate of 1-in-6 to 1-in-8.
    moving on:
    2005 (10): neal, vlasic, pavelic, stastny, raymond, letang, russell, quick, franson, bishop
    2004 (13): bolland, bickell, dubinski, goligoski, krejci, soderberg, booth, stoner, sekera, emelin, edler, franzen, greiss
    2003 (9): eriksson, klein, bergeron, carle, weber, crawford, backes, howard, macarthur
    2002 (10): stoll, daley, greene, keith, stajan, hudler, boychuk, fleischmann, nielsson, filppula
    2001 (8): roy, tyutin, cammalleri, pominville, budaj, plekanic, anderson, sharp

    that's now 8 years of data, 478 total picks.
    if the hit rate was 1-in-6, you'd have 79 hits over those 8 years.
    if the hit rate was 1-in-8, you'd have 60 hits
    if the hit rate was 1-in-12, you'd have 40 hits

    the actual number of hits was 76.
    Exactly. Of all things to be critical of Hextall, his success rate in the draft should be the last on that list.
    yeah, i'm out.

  9. #444
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillyeaglesman View Post
    Eh...this also isnít the NBA where the average salary is $10M.

    I think thatíd be an easier pill to swallow if the discount heíd take would still be a really great salary. I just donít see PIT being able to clear enough cap to make that plausible.

    I think heís more likely to end up somewhere like SJ where they can contend and heíd still make a ton of money and be THE guy.

    Vegas also makes a ton of sense. They have a boat load of cap space and whether itís a fluke or not, theyíre contending this year. Imagine them signing Tavares and then using Tavares to lure Karlsson to the team the following season.
    Didn't say it was likely, but not ruling it out either because Pittsburgh always seems to pull off the improbable.

  10. #445
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    50 years ago, 95% of NHL players were canadian. if that's your data, it's less than worthless.

    180 draft picks over 3 years is a large enough sample (imo), but if you want a few more, here goes:

    2008 (11): voynov, josi, weircoch, stepan, hamonic, scandella, markstrom, allen, stone, smith, henrique
    2007 (5): subban, simmonds, dadonov, weber, killorn
    2006 (10): neuvirth, mcginn, kulemin, petri, lucic, anisimov, enroth, mcbain, mason, marchand,
    --- those are the years i looked at previously to got my estimate of 1-in-6 to 1-in-8.
    moving on:
    2005 (10): neal, vlasic, pavelic, stastny, raymond, letang, russell, quick, franson, bishop
    2004 (13): bolland, bickell, dubinski, goligoski, krejci, soderberg, booth, stoner, sekera, emelin, edler, franzen, greiss
    2003 (9): eriksson, klein, bergeron, carle, weber, crawford, backes, howard, macarthur
    2002 (10): stoll, daley, greene, keith, stajan, hudler, boychuk, fleischmann, nielsson, filppula
    2001 (8): roy, tyutin, cammalleri, pominville, budaj, plekanic, anderson, sharp

    that's now 8 years of data, 478 total picks.
    if the hit rate was 1-in-6, you'd have 79 hits over those 8 years.
    if the hit rate was 1-in-8, you'd have 60 hits
    if the hit rate was 1-in-12, you'd have 40 hits

    the actual number of hits was 76.

    yeah, i'm out.
    A ton of these guys are fringe-at-best top 6 F/ top-4 D and you know it.

    Kulemin? McBain? McGinn? Bickell? Soderberg? Enroth? Mason Raymond? Franson? Klein? Greiss? Booth? Stoner? MacArthur? Budaj? Hudler? Stajan?

    You can believe whatever you'd like, steagles. But at the end of the day, if the hit rate on 2nd & 3rd round picks was 1-in-6, there wouldn't be a shortage of NHL talent.

    These are barely mediocre role players -- not bona fide, top-6 players. Hell, I think Greiss may have started 200 games in his 10 year career. Bickell was so good, Chicago had to package him with a top prospect just so Carolina would take him. Matt Stajan is a 3C/4C on the Flames... and I think he may have cracked 50 points once in his career. Jonas Enroth has about 150 NHL decisions (not starts, mind you) in 9 seasons. Not a 1G.

    Guys like Vlasic, PK Subban, Krejci, Bergeron, Neal, Weber, Letang, Crawford, Howard, Marchand, Simmonds, Lucic, Keith, Statsny etc.

    Those are the definition of a top-6 F, a top-4 D or a 1G.
    Last edited by Ace23; 05-12-2018 at 07:32 PM.

  11. #446
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  12. #447
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    Frankly, statistically speaking, it's still to early to judge really any of Hextall's drafts completely. Only a handful of players have more than 50 NHL games under their belt (Provorov, TK, Patrick). You can maybe throw Sanheim in there since he had 49 games and should have played a lot more, but overall, that's still just 4 players.


    I'd say based on the career paths of the players to date, he's done quite well and at this point that's all you can really ask for of him. People can argue some of the picks were no-brainers all they want. Most point to Patrick and Provorov in those arguments. I have time for Patrick being the no-brainer, but 6 teams passed on Provorov and I don't think anyone would have balked at Hextall if he would have taken Barzal or Werenski or Meier or Rantanen. Did Hextall make the best pick there? That remains to be seen but I would say he did quite well.


    If you're looking at criticizing Hextall's drafting skills at this point, you're not going to have a real strong argument on which to stand.

    2018 SUPER BOWL CHAMPION PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

  13. #448
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    We also have to look at his track record as well. After all, he has been in player development and management positions since retiring. He was immediately hired as a scout and personnel development manager by the Flyers and most would argue the early 2000s were some of the most successful years for the Flyers as a franchise in terms of player development. Hextall was in charge of that department. When Holmgren took over as GM, Hextall left to be the assistant GM in LA. Again, he headed up the personnel development department and had a ton of success, which we all know led to a Stanley Cup in his 6th year there. Meanwhile, the Flyers basically tanked and resorted to trading away almost all of their assets while seeking big name players with massive contracts and trades. Our internal system was depleted and fell apart after Hextall left. The Kings became a powerhouse in the West and grew almost entirely from within while adding key pieces in stretch runs via trades and free agency. Thatís not to say Hextall was entirely responsible for the success of the Kings during their run, but I donít think itís any coincidence that the success and downturns of these franchises have all occurred during Hextallís exits and entrances, especially in regards to player development. We are on much the same path as the Kings were in the late 2000s. The only real difference is that Hextall had to get this team out of the grave of cap trouble Holmgren had dug.

  14. #449
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillyeaglesman View Post
    Frankly, statistically speaking, it's still to early to judge really any of Hextall's drafts completely. Only a handful of players have more than 50 NHL games under their belt (Provorov, TK, Patrick). You can maybe throw Sanheim in there since he had 49 games and should have played a lot more, but overall, that's still just 4 players.


    I'd say based on the career paths of the players to date, he's done quite well and at this point that's all you can really ask for of him. People can argue some of the picks were no-brainers all they want. Most point to Patrick and Provorov in those arguments. I have time for Patrick being the no-brainer, but 6 teams passed on Provorov and I don't think anyone would have balked at Hextall if he would have taken Barzal or Werenski or Meier or Rantanen. Did Hextall make the best pick there? That remains to be seen but I would say he did quite well.


    If you're looking at criticizing Hextall's drafting skills at this point, you're not going to have a real strong argument on which to stand.
    Agreed

  15. #450
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    Anyway, for a UFA mention, Calvin de Haan could be an interesting target. Injuries have hurt him but he is a really solid D man.

    If the Flyers decide to move on from Gudas or by some miracle, AMac, de Haan would likely be a pretty cheap option.

    Not sure if this has been mentioned.

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