Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 29 of 36 FirstFirst ... 192728293031 ... LastLast
Results 421 to 435 of 539
  1. #421
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    7,303
    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    when your definition of "good pick" is 'not lighting your own underwear on fire', pretty much everything will look like a good pick.

    i think it's important to have a more critical standard than that.
    I mean, look at the hit rate for those picks over time. Statistically speaking, only about 1 in 4 guys drafted in the 2nd round will play in 100 NHL games -- that doesn't mean play well, mind you. It means (basically) be VandeVelde or better.

    About 1 in 12 will have a Top-6F, Top-4D or Starting G role.

    So, if you're going to look at it with that "critical standard", factor that into your decision-making process.

    Basically: do we think that, of the last 12 2nd & 3rd round picks Hextall has made, at least one will develop into a Top-6F, Top-4D or Starting G? If so, then Hextall is beating the odds. If he ends up with 2 or 3 players who fit that bill, he's an extreme outlier (we're talking a less than 0.0001% chance of that happening by "luck").

  2. #422
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    2,411
    About 1 in 12 will have a Top-6F, Top-4D or Starting G role.
    1 in 12 seems low.

    going back to the 06/07/08 draft classes (since all of those players should have already peaked), i count 26 2nd and 3rd rounders out of 180 that were top 6/top 4/top 40 caliber. that would put your ratio at about 1-in-6 to 1-in-8 instead of 1-in-12.
    Basically: do we think that, of the last 12 2nd & 3rd round picks Hextall has made, at least one will develop into a Top-6F, Top-4D or Starting G? If so, then Hextall is beating the odds. If he ends up with 2 or 3 players who fit that bill, he's an extreme outlier (we're talking a less than 0.0001% chance of that happening by "luck").
    that definition of luck is too narrow to be meaningful.
    So, if you're going to look at it with that "critical standard", factor that into your decision-making process.
    it was.

    to use an analogy, when i say that patrick's stock (or sandstrom's or ratcliffe's) hasn't changed, that's me saying that hextall hit a double with those picks. that's not a criticism; doubles are good.

    someone whose stock went down isn't automatically an out, either (though alot of them are). drafting rubtsov or NAK or scott laughton is more like hitting a single.

  3. #423
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    2,411
    this is a good article:
    The rise from expansion team to Cup contender in six months seems impossible. But this is real. It is not a fluke, a case of weak opponents, or Gary Bettman practicing witchcraft. General manager George McPhee and coach Gerard Gallant built this roster with a plan, and it was a proven one. Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles have combined to win seven of the last eight Stanley Cups with the same formula: elite goaltending, forward depth, and an attacking style emphasizing speed, forechecking, and forcing turnovers. Vegas did not attempt to reinvent that wheel.
    ...Start with a franchise goaltender.
    ...Second, do not take every other team’s **** contracts
    ...Third, be fast up front.
    McPhee assembled what may be the fastest top-to-bottom group of forwards in the NHL. They started with two legit top-six forwards–Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault–who toiled in relative obscurity with the Panthers. Florida apparently decided Marchessault’s 30-goal season was a fluke (it wasn’t) and Smith was a looming blight on their salary cap. David Perron and James Neal were chosen as not-too-old veterans with demonstrated scoring ability. And then came a slew of young forwards who can flat-out fly: Erik Haula, Alex Tuch, William Karlsson, William Carrier, Oscar Lindberg, Cody Eakin.

  4. #424
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    1,528
    Yo, just sayin.

    Claude Giroux - 5’11” 175lb (when drafted)
    Draft + 1 year: 48 G, 64 A, 112 P

    Morgan Frost - 5’11” 170lb
    Draft + 1 year: 42 G, 70 A, 112 P


    Just. Sayin.

  5. #425
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    4,718
    Quote Originally Posted by FlyGuys89 View Post
    Yo, just sayin.

    Claude Giroux - 5’11” 175lb (when drafted)
    Draft + 1 year: 48 G, 64 A, 112 P

    Morgan Frost - 5’11” 170lb
    Draft + 1 year: 42 G, 70 A, 112 P


    Just. Sayin.
    I mean even if he winds up being 3/4 of Giroux that's still a massive win.

  6. #426
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    3,509
    Quote Originally Posted by CasperX22 View Post
    I mean even if he winds up being 3/4 of Giroux that's still a massive win.
    Claude Giroux, MIGHT be the most under appreccieated Philadelphia athlete of my life time.

  7. #427
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    1,528
    Quote Originally Posted by txravis12 View Post
    Claude Giroux, MIGHT be the most under appreccieated Philadelphia athlete of my life time.
    I would agree with that 100%. I would flat out say that he just IS the most under appreciated Philadelphia athlete of all time.

  8. #428
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    3,509
    Quote Originally Posted by FlyGuys89 View Post
    I would agree with that 100%. I would flat out say that he just IS the most under appreciated Philadelphia athlete of all time.
    I still vividly remember the Abreau hate. Also the segment of the fan base that ragged on Ryan Howard because strikeouts. I also remember the McNabb hatred.

  9. #429
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    1,528
    Right now I’m on this big, fast, scoring winger kick. That’s what I need Hextall to go out and get this off-season. After watching Winnipeg, I feel like I need Wahlstrom on this team.

  10. #430
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    4,718
    Quote Originally Posted by txravis12 View Post
    Claude Giroux, MIGHT be the most under appreccieated Philadelphia athlete of my life time.
    Philly has had their fair share of them. Is he even the most underappreciated Flyer on the current roster? Until this year there has been a large contingent of fans calling him a bust.

  11. #431
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    1,528
    Just went all the way to page 68/69 for some giggles.. those were well before my time here on PSD and happened to be when Giroux was still just a prospect in our system. Very interesting to go back and read the thoughts everyone had about the different prospects and who would make an impact and who everyone was most excited about. A lot of talk about offensive defenseman Mike Ratchuk and the hard hitting Russian, Denis Bodrov. Neither played a game in the NHL, with the former being a career ECHLer and the latter staying home in Russia in the KHL.

    Also a great quote from Castan in the Giroux prospect thread that reads “***** the Penguins”.

    I highly recommend going back and reading. Very interesting stuff.

  12. #432
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    6,558
    Quote Originally Posted by FlyGuys89 View Post
    Just went all the way to page 68/69 for some giggles.. those were well before my time here on PSD and happened to be when Giroux was still just a prospect in our system. Very interesting to go back and read the thoughts everyone had about the different prospects and who would make an impact and who everyone was most excited about. A lot of talk about offensive defenseman Mike Ratchuk and the hard hitting Russian, Denis Bodrov. Neither played a game in the NHL, with the former being a career ECHLer and the latter staying home in Russia in the KHL.

    Also a great quote from Castan in the Giroux prospect thread that reads “***** the Penguins”.

    I highly recommend going back and reading. Very interesting stuff.
    Haha. I’m very consistent

  13. #433
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    South Jersey
    Posts
    15,256
    Man I was just a pup back then haha. Barely even posted, must’ve been when I first started here. I don’t think I even knew what a prospect was back then. Didn’t really get into draft stuff until a few years ago.

    Time flies.

  14. #434
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    7,303
    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    1 in 12 seems low.

    going back to the 06/07/08 draft classes (since all of those players should have already peaked), i count 26 2nd and 3rd rounders out of 180 that were top 6/top 4/top 40 caliber. that would put your ratio at about 1-in-6 to 1-in-8 instead of 1-in-12.
    that definition of luck is too narrow to be meaningful.
    it was.

    to use an analogy, when i say that patrick's stock (or sandstrom's or ratcliffe's) hasn't changed, that's me saying that hextall hit a double with those picks. that's not a criticism; doubles are good.

    someone whose stock went down isn't automatically an out, either (though alot of them are). drafting rubtsov or NAK or scott laughton is more like hitting a single.
    Again, you're looking at 3 drafts. The Hockey News looked at about 50. Sample size matters.

    The other thing that's getting lost here is that Hextall doesn't draft in a vacuum. There are 29 (now 30) other GMs who are trying to do the same damn thing he is: find high quality NHL players.

    The fact that, in his worst rounds (2 & 3, by your reasoning), he is doing that at a rate that is triple the league-wide historical average is significant.

  15. #435
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    7,303
    Also, has anyone heard tbs rumor that Pittsburgh may take a run at Tavares?

    Move Haegelin & Letang for futures/young assets. Use that money to sign Tavares at a "discount" because he wants to win.

    Roll out a top-6 of:

    Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Tavares, Guentzel & Hornqvist.

    Because Pittsburgh needs another Hall of Fame caliber forward.

Page 29 of 36 FirstFirst ... 192728293031 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •