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  1. #1
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    2018-2019 Offseason

    I know it's playoff time and way to early to discuss the offseason, but with the Kawhi Leonard speculation starting to run rampant and half the teams in the league sitting at home - the rumors will start swirling. I figured it'd be good to have a post to refer to when having this discussions to see where we stand in the offseason.

    Writers note: I hope everyone is far more focused on the playoffs and watching this young team grow. These are exciting times in Celtics history. I know big names are exciting, and I've pondered the big names myself, but it never hurts to remind ourselves that - it may just be perfectly fine to stand pat.

    Heading into the offseason here's our roster carried over.

    PG - Kyrie Irving - $20,099,188.00 (player option after season) He will decline it
    PG - Terry Rozier - $3,050,390.00 (Restricted Free Agent after the season)
    PG - Marcus Smart - 2018 Free Agent - Cap hold $13,614,060.00
    PG - Shane Larkin - 2018 Free Agent - Cap hold $1,544,951.00

    Wing - Gordon Hayward - $31,214,295.00 (1 year after the season and player option)
    Wing - Jayson Tatum - $6,700,800.00 (2 years after the season)
    Wing - Jaylen Brown - $5,169,960.00 (1 year after the season)
    Wing - Marcus Morris - $5,375,000.00 (Unrestricted Free Agent after the season)
    Wing - Guerschon Yabusele - $2,667,600.00 (2 years after the season)
    Wing - Semi Ojeleye - $1,378,242.00 (2 years after the season)
    Wing - Abdel Nader - $1,378,242.00 (1 year after the season)

    C - Al Horford - $28,928,709.00 (Player option after the season) he will pick it up
    C - Greg Monroe - 2018 Free Agent - Cap hold $6,000,000.00
    C - Aron Baynes - 2018 Free Agent - Cap hold $5,193,600.00
    C - Daniel Theis - $1,378,242.00 - (Free Agent after the season)

    I've noticed Stevens rotations generally include 3 PG's, 4 Wings, 3 C's. With an extra PG, C and 3 wings on the roster. I imagine he will keep this sort of formula.

    We'll have our own draft pick heading into the offseason (#24-28?)
    We'll be over the salary cap so we can use the tax payer MLE - $5,292,000 (Projected)

    Cap wise ($101M is projected as the cap). Counting active contracts, cap holds, and dead money we stand at $133,786,136.00, which puts us over the cap by -$32,786,136.00 and over the luxury tax by -$10,786,136.00.

    So 4 Free Agents. That's 4 roster spots to fill. One will be a draft pick (maybe 2, we have a second round pick from OKC). Allen and Bird could also be added back to the team.

    City of Champions

  2. #2
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    Using the information above. I don't expect major changes.

    I do expect the owners will want to ride the luxury tax and avoid paying it. This will be of benefit long term when we're likely to go over it the following year when we need to re-sign Kyrie Irving.

    So that means cutting about $10.7M off the roster.

    Some moves I would look to make.

    Trade Abdel Nader for nothing...He can be replaced by Allen or Bird and save maybe $500k.

    Aron Baynes will/should be allowed to leave. I like him, but he doesn't move the needle. We can find a guy to do what he does for less than $5M. Letting him walk saves us $5.2M.

    I would try and sign Greg Monroe with the MLE. It would pay him slightly more than he's making now, but less than the cap hold so we save another $700k off the cap. I like what he adds to the team. This would give us 3 solid C's in Horford, Monroe and Theis. We could add a rookie or a vet to the group as depth, but these 3 will be Stevens main group. They each have very different games. I like this mix.

    I would bring back Shane Larkin. I like him as a 4th PG. We should be able to bring him back right at his cap hold number. He knows the system and has proven effective in short spurts when needed. I don't think we could add a better guy for the small amount of money he would require.

    Next, bring back Marcus Smart. We can use bird rights to sign him, so we can offer him what we want. I imagine he'll have decent market value but he may take slightly less to stay. His cap hold is over $13M which I would not pay. I'd like to pay $8-9M but that's probably not realistic. He's probably going to get in the $10-12M range. So let's say we can bring him back for $11M....I would do it. It saves us $2+M off our cap figure from above and adds a pivotal piece back into the rotation.

    At this moment, we're still about $3-4M above the luxury tax threshold with 1 roster spot open (Center/Baynes).

    I would trade Marcus Morris. I like what he adds and would prefer to keep him but I don't think it's a great match. Few things to consider here. 1. Morris will be a Free Agent after the season, with Kyrie, Rozier and Theis also hitting Free Agency in the same here. It's unlikely we'd be able to pay Morris what he wants to stay. 2. I don't think Morris likes coming off the bench and with Hayward returning, his role will diminish further. 3. The money. $5M is a bargain for what he brings, but if it means getting under the luxury tax, he's probably a goner. Marcus Morris is not a guy Danny can convince ownership to pay the luxury tax to keep. Especially considering long term consequences.

    Ideally we can trade Morris along with our draft pick to move up in the draft and snag a big man we like. With Horford and Morris getting older, but still playing well...It's a perfect time to take a big man that fits Stevens system and maybe has some good upside but a bit raw. He'd have a limited role here year 1 anyways.

    So now, we're finally under the luxury tax by $1-2M. We have 1 roster spot open from the Morris trade. A vet minimum guy for depth, hopefully a decent wing looking for a ring. I'd like this player to be of the sharp shooter variety. Someone who can come in with low minutes but high efficiency shooting. This will help to replace the loss of Morris scoring ability, along with Haywards return.

    2018-2019 might look rather similar to this season - but hopefully healthy and more progress from the kids.

    PG Kyrie Irving
    PG Terry Rozier
    PG Marcus Smart

    PG Shane Larkin

    Wing Gordon Hayward
    Wing Jayson Tatum
    Wing Jaylen Brown

    Wing Vet Free Agent
    Wing Guerschon Yabusele
    Wing Semi Ojeleye
    Wing Allen/Bird

    C Al Horford
    C Greg Monroe
    C Daniel Theis

    C 2018 rookie first rounder

    Bold = Main rotation
    Italics = New additions
    Last edited by Oakmont_4; 04-19-2018 at 06:50 PM.

    City of Champions

  3. #3
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    Now I'll cave to the Kawhi Leonard hysteria.

    Using the same outline as above and a trade proposal I've previously mentioned. Here's the "Kawhi offseason"

    Trade
    BOS trades: Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, Guerschon Yabusele, Abdel Nader, LAC and MEM firsts
    BOS receives: Kawhi Leonard

    Similar moves as listed above. Re-sign the following under the same terms
    Marcus Smart
    Greg Monroe
    Shane Larkin

    Our first rounder we're likely to stand pat at our pick. I'm still taking a C

    We have 2 additional roster spots to fill from above so I'll sign 2 Vet wings and a Vet PG

    PG Kyrie Irving
    PG Marcus Smart
    PG Shane Larkin

    PG Vet Free Agent

    Wing Kawhi Leonard
    Wing Gordon Hayward
    Wing Jayson Tatum

    Wing Vet Free Agent
    Wing Vet Free Agent
    Wing Semi Ojeleye
    Wing Kadeem Allen
    Wing Jabari Bird

    C Al Horford
    C Greg Monroe
    C Daniel Theis

    C 2018 rookie first rounder

    This team isn't as deep as the one above. This team also cruises past the luxury tax (about $25M over), but going back to my statement from above, Marcus Morris isn't a guy you go over the luxury tax for - however - Kawhi Leonard is. This will be an expensive group to keep together but the top end talent is greater now and still for the future. With this roster 2 of Kyrie, Kawhi, Gordon and Tatum can be on the court at all times. You can hide players very easily playing alongside talent like that. I would venture to say this is easily a top 2-3 team in the NBA assuming health and would immediately contend for championships. The window will close faster on a group like this but it is more of a certainty to win than the previous projection.

    City of Champions

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oakmont_4 View Post
    Now I'll cave to the Kawhi Leonard hysteria.

    Using the same outline as above and a trade proposal I've previously mentioned. Here's the "Kawhi offseason"

    Trade
    BOS trades: Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, Guerschon Yabusele, Abdel Nader, LAC and MEM firsts
    BOS receives: Kawhi Leonard

    Similar moves as listed above. Re-sign the following under the same terms
    Marcus Smart
    Greg Monroe
    Shane Larkin

    Our first rounder we're likely to stand pat at our pick. I'm still taking a C

    We have 2 additional roster spots to fill from above so I'll sign 2 Vet wings and a Vet PG

    PG Kyrie Irving
    PG Marcus Smart
    PG Shane Larkin

    PG Vet Free Agent

    Wing Kawhi Leonard
    Wing Gordon Hayward
    Wing Jayson Tatum

    Wing Vet Free Agent
    Wing Vet Free Agent
    Wing Semi Ojeleye
    Wing Kadeem Allen
    Wing Jabari Bird

    C Al Horford
    C Greg Monroe
    C Daniel Theis

    C 2018 rookie first rounder

    This team isn't as deep as the one above. This team also cruises past the luxury tax (about $25M over), but going back to my statement from above, Marcus Morris isn't a guy you go over the luxury tax for - however - Kawhi Leonard is. This will be an expensive group to keep together but the top end talent is greater now and still for the future. With this roster 2 of Kyrie, Kawhi, Gordon and Tatum can be on the court at all times. You can hide players very easily playing alongside talent like that. I would venture to say this is easily a top 2-3 team in the NBA assuming health and would immediately contend for championships. The window will close faster on a group like this but it is more of a certainty to win than the previous projection.
    That'd be an absolute haul for SA. I would not be willing to sacrifice that much for KL. I like what we have with Rozier and Brown. I'd be more willing to let Smart walk and draft a guard with our 1st pick or a defensive Center. Let Baynes go. Bring back Monroe. I'd like to see one season of our current team healthy before making another serious move. Only players I'd be willing to make a move for are AD and KAT

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by corky831 View Post
    That'd be an absolute haul for SA. I would not be willing to sacrifice that much for KL. I like what we have with Rozier and Brown. I'd be more willing to let Smart walk and draft a guard with our 1st pick or a defensive Center. Let Baynes go. Bring back Monroe. I'd like to see one season of our current team healthy before making another serious move. Only players I'd be willing to make a move for are AD and KAT
    It's a good trade for both sides. When healthy, KL is a top 5 NBA player. He's better than anyone on our roster right now. I like the players we'd give up for him in this scenario but in the NBA you always want to get back the best player. This trade accomplishes that. There are very few opportunities to land a player like KL. Don't let this past season cloud your judgment on just how good KL is.

    In 2017 KL had GS down by 25 points in the playoffs game 1. He gets hurt before the end of the game which literally killed the Spurs season. He was carrying that team on his back, by himself. He alone was going toe to toe with the best team in the league. He's at his best come playoff time. Before getting hurt in 2017, in 12 games he averaged 28ppg with a TS% of .672. Oh and he rebounds and passes when he's not scoring averaging over 7RPG and nearly 5APG

    In 15 and 16 he was an All Star both seasons. Averaging 20+ ppg and shooting insane percentages. He was incredibly efficient despite logging 33mpg and a 25-30% usage.

    You pair a healthy Leonard and Irving together in the playoffs and they can take you to the promise land alone. Having Hayward, Tatum and Horford playing along side them...I just don't see how you can stop that.

    Depth is great. Youth is great. Upside is great. But the real deal, a true franchise player trumps all in the NBA.

    City of Champions

  6. #6
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    Another thing to keep in mind...BOS is in a great spot right now, but they still need to keep getting better and at a fast rate.

    As of now LBJ is still in the East. He and his team are declining but he's still the best player in the NBA. Generally come playoff time, the team with the best player wins.

    AND we have a huge PHI problem. That team is on a meteoric rise right now. Embiid if he can stay healthy, is on track to be a top 5 NBA player. Simmons is looking like a top 10 guy in the near future. I don't think any of the guys on our roster have the top end potential that both Embiid and Simmons have.

    Danny NEEDS to keep pushing the envelope and exploring bigger and better moves to keep ahead of PHI. Standing pat and developing at current rates for both teams...PHI will be better than us in a year or two.

    It'd be nice to stand pat and just develop what we have. I fear that won't be good enough in short order. PHI and BOS are on track to own the east for the next 5 years. This has the makings of some throw back years...CHI/DET of the early 90's, BOS/PHI of the 80's.

    City of Champions

  7. #7
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    If Hayward didn't get injured and the C's made a deep run in the playoffs, then IMO DA would kick the tires on Leonard...

    But with JT and JB starting from day one and being very productive, I would think DA assumes that next years roster with Hayward will definitely make a deep run to at least the Finals...
    "I've never been scared of contact. Now I get to bring it, that's what I love to do, so I'm going to bring it."

    Reggie Lewis



    GET OFF YOUR HEELS BILL !!!

  8. #8
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    Oakmont, not going to quote the entire post by yours cause i agree with most of it except for one part about Baynes. How does he not move the needle and who are you replacing him with?

    Among NBA players who played at least 50 games this season. He ranked first in the entire NBA in defensive win shares per 48 minutes. How does that not move the needle. Literally the best in the league on a per 48 minutes defensively.
    "Talent sets the floor, character sets the ceiling." - Bill Belichick

  9. #9
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    I think that to get Leonard it's going to take something like:

    Tatum / Yabusele / Rozier / '19 SAC / Semi / Nader

    And I'd do it.

    Like I said in the Leonard thread, do that deal, then re-sign Smart (bird exemption) and Baynes (non-bird exemption) and use the taxpayers MLE on a shooter like Bellinelli.

    Kyrie / Smart
    Leonard / Bellinelli
    Hayward / Brown
    Horford / Morris
    Baynes / Theis


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    I think that to get Leonard it's going to take something like:

    Tatum / Yabusele / Rozier / '19 SAC / Semi / Nader

    And I'd do it.

    Like I said in the Leonard thread, do that deal, then re-sign Smart (bird exemption) and Baynes (non-bird exemption) and use the taxpayers MLE on a shooter like Bellinelli.

    Kyrie / Smart
    Leonard / Bellinelli
    Hayward / Brown
    Horford / Morris
    Baynes / Theis
    No thanks to that... If Stevens can't make the 18'/19' Finals with Horford, Hayward and Kyrie leading the way, we gots problems...

    IMO trading for Leonard will set this franchise back and make those great BK picks very forgettable...
    "I've never been scared of contact. Now I get to bring it, that's what I love to do, so I'm going to bring it."

    Reggie Lewis



    GET OFF YOUR HEELS BILL !!!

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever35 View Post
    No thanks to that... If Stevens can't make the 18'/19' Finals with Horford, Hayward and Kyrie leading the way, we gots problems...

    IMO trading for Leonard will set this franchise back and make those great BK picks very forgettable...
    I don't think it would be very forgettable if those BRK picks end up being a top 5 player (Leonard), a top 15 player (Kyrie) and then Jaylen Brown who I think can be an all star.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox47 View Post
    Oakmont, not going to quote the entire post by yours cause i agree with most of it except for one part about Baynes. How does he not move the needle and who are you replacing him with?

    Among NBA players who played at least 50 games this season. He ranked first in the entire NBA in defensive win shares per 48 minutes. How does that not move the needle. Literally the best in the league on a per 48 minutes defensively.
    I'm not saying he's a bad player...But how much of that is due to Stevens and playing on the #1 defensive team in the league?

    City of Champions

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    I think that to get Leonard it's going to take something like:

    Tatum / Yabusele / Rozier / '19 SAC / Semi / Nader

    And I'd do it.

    Like I said in the Leonard thread, do that deal, then re-sign Smart (bird exemption) and Baynes (non-bird exemption) and use the taxpayers MLE on a shooter like Bellinelli.

    Kyrie / Smart
    Leonard / Bellinelli
    Hayward / Brown
    Horford / Morris
    Baynes / Theis
    I would not do that trade

    City of Champions

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever35 View Post
    No thanks to that... If Stevens can't make the 18'/19' Finals with Horford, Hayward and Kyrie leading the way, we gots problems...

    IMO trading for Leonard will set this franchise back and make those great BK picks very forgettable...
    You do realize Leonard is 26 right? He's still in his prime years. Keeping Tatum and Brown with an eye for 2025 would be foolish. We can't keep saying "the future, the future". At some point you have to go for it and sacrifice some long term assets for championships now.

    A Kyrie - Leonard combo has a solid 5 year window (assuming health) and that's very conservative.

    City of Champions

  15. #15
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    My ideal scenario in a Kawhi offseason would be ...

    S&T Smart for an expiring contract.

    Use that player we get from Smart in a Leonard trade.

    Tatum, Morris, Yabusele, Nader, MEM 2019, LAC 2019, BOS 2018 first rounder

    Re-sign Baynes and Monroe (MLE)

    Sign Seth Curry

    Kyrie/Rozier
    Hayward/Curry
    Leonard/Brown
    Horford/Theis
    Baynes/Monroe

    City of Champions

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