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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by beldugo View Post
    I've seen him throw 100 plenty, he has a big arm, control is his problem at times.
    I don't know how I didn't realize this lol. Like I said, for some reason I thought he was around 96 or so. That's awesome though.

    Quote Originally Posted by styxlover View Post
    This game did remind me of last year in that the Braves were able to score late in the game and since they were at home was able to win on a walk-off.
    Yeah they had so many come from behind last year during their streak, it was definitely fun to watch. A pretty awesome opening day all around really. A walkoff homerun for us, Matt Davidson hit 3 home runs for the White Sox, Red Sox had an inside the park home run. Fun stuff.

  2. #17
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    It was a great opening day and don't forget Stanton hitting 2 homers for the Yanks.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by beldugo:32253545
    Great game, great start for the team, I'm still baffled on why Kapler took Nola out in the 6th with less than 70 pitches but thank you I guess. Albies showed some power right away, I can see 15+ homers for him, Freddie being Freddie and Markakis with the big hit. I think Snitker pulled Teheran a bit early too, Brothers came in and just killed Teheran's line, he didn't pitch as bad as his line looked.
    Braves postgame was killing the Phillies' embrace of analytics. They said that's why Nola got pulled. The third time through the lineup being a minefield.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamaj View Post
    Braves postgame was killing the Phillies' embrace of analytics. They said that's why Nola got pulled. The third time through the lineup being a minefield.
    Nola was breezing through our line up. Philly did us a favor. Plus Neshek being out helped as well.
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  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamaj View Post
    Braves postgame was killing the Phillies' embrace of analytics. They said that's why Nola got pulled. The third time through the lineup being a minefield.
    They pulled him because of analytics? That's really odd. I guess if the pitcher was kind of struggling and was not a great pitcher anyway you could make that case, but Nola is a good pitcher and was holding us in check all game. Really odd decision.

    Quote Originally Posted by vikingsfan0845 View Post
    Nola was breezing through our line up. Philly did us a favor. Plus Neshek being out helped as well.
    Yep, for sure. I agree with Beldugo though that I think Snit should have let Teheran finish the 6th. I think he would have had a better chance of keeping those runs off the board, so I think we made a mistake pulling our starter early too. It is opening day, so maybe that played into both teams' decisions.

  6. #21
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    Yeah, the stat was something like lineups were .200 and .230 the first 2 times seeing Nola, then it jumped to .320 the 3rd time around. I just donít see how you can justify pulling Nola, up 5-0 and cruising. He probably had 6 innings well under 100 pitches, maybe 7.

    And if you are in to advanced analytics, how long until teams realize that a LH matchup against Inciarte, Freeman, or Markakis is basically worthless? Truth is most coaches are creatures of habit and still work off of general rules AND fans expect that. If fans cared about advanced analytics, they would in part understand the decision with Nola yesterday. If a coach bucks the norm and it pays off, it is overlooked, not celebrated. But if he bucks the norm due to analytics and it fails, he is crushed.

    IMO, there has to be a balance between analytics and feel/flow of the game. I think analytics looks at the moment, not the big picture. That is not a good long term formula in a sport like baseball. Yesterday was a prime example:

    Presumably Nola was pulled due to his struggles the 3rd time through the lineup last year. But PHI pulling Nola and then using 5 guys from the bullpen yesterday makes almost no long term sense. Now more guys are tired and have been seen by opposing hitters. Nola should have been given the chance, especially with a 5-0 lead, to finish the 6th and probably the at least start the 7th. Especially when Nola is the best pitcher on your team, minus maybe Neris. While I understand the data from last year, I donít think it trumps the situation at hand or the fact that it is game 1 of 162. Even if PHI won yesterday, it still doesnít make anything I just argued less true. So is one win more important than a series? Or more important than your Ace being pissed on Day 1? If this is how Kapler manages all year, imagine the mental toll on his SPís or the physical toll on his RPís.

    I love numbers; data doesnít lie. But I think a big part of being a good baseball manager is managing the information you have/know with the idea of instant outcome v long term outcome.




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  7. #22
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    And, like Beldugo, I think Teheran should have been given the chance to continue.


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  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamaj View Post
    Braves postgame was killing the Phillies' embrace of analytics. They said that's why Nola got pulled. The third time through the lineup being a minefield.
    Quote Originally Posted by Coach100 View Post
    Yeah, the stat was something like lineups were .200 and .230 the first 2 times seeing Nola, then it jumped to .320 the 3rd time around. I just donít see how you can justify pulling Nola, up 5-0 and cruising. He probably had 6 innings well under 100 pitches, maybe 7.

    And if you are in to advanced analytics, how long until teams realize that a LH matchup against Inciarte, Freeman, or Markakis is basically worthless? Truth is most coaches are creatures of habit and still work off of general rules AND fans expect that. If fans cared about advanced analytics, they would in part understand the decision with Nola yesterday. If a coach bucks the norm and it pays off, it is overlooked, not celebrated. But if he bucks the norm due to analytics and it fails, he is crushed.

    IMO, there has to be a balance between analytics and feel/flow of the game. I think analytics looks at the moment, not the big picture. That is not a good long term formula in a sport like baseball. Yesterday was a prime example:

    Presumably Nola was pulled due to his struggles the 3rd time through the lineup last year. But PHI pulling Nola and then using 5 guys from the bullpen yesterday makes almost no long term sense. Now more guys are tired and have been seen by opposing hitters. Nola should have been given the chance, especially with a 5-0 lead, to finish the 6th and probably the at least start the 7th. Especially when Nola is the best pitcher on your team, minus maybe Neris. While I understand the data from last year, I donít think it trumps the situation at hand or the fact that it is game 1 of 162. Even if PHI won yesterday, it still doesnít make anything I just argued less true. So is one win more important than a series? Or more important than your Ace being pissed on Day 1? If this is how Kapler manages all year, imagine the mental toll on his SPís or the physical toll on his RPís.

    I love numbers; data doesnít lie. But I think a big part of being a good baseball manager is managing the information you have/know with the idea of instant outcome v long term outcome.




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    I agree 100%. Data doesn't lie, but numbers are meaningless without a real world understanding of what they're telling you. If the numbers are from last year alone then they are cross-sectional and thus pretty limited. If Nola had multiple years where this was the case then you can maybe get at some causality there, but in this case they are assuming that Nola's talent/knowledge is fixed at what it was last year. That's not the case. He's young, and it can be assumed he'd improve this year as a thrower and from a mental standpoint.

  9. #24
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    I'd like to look at the data and see what Nola's pitch count was when he faced a lineup the third time around. If he's throw 100+ pitches by that point, it may be explained by fatigue rather than lineups suddenly figuring him out.

    All this said, if your bullpen gives up 8 runs over ~3 innings, hard to blame the manager for that. Can only use the talent his organization acquired.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamaj View Post
    I'd like to look at the data and see what Nola's pitch count was when he faced a lineup the third time around. If he's throw 100+ pitches by that point, it may be explained by fatigue rather than lineups suddenly figuring him out.

    All this said, if your bullpen gives up 8 runs over ~3 innings, hard to blame the manager for that. Can only use the talent his organization acquired.
    But again, the win/loss is sort of irrelevant big picture to both of these teams. It still doesnít change any of the other, non box score outcomes.

    - Nola upset.
    - Pen worked more than needed in game 1 of a series.
    - Braves have now seen more arms in game 1 of a series.
    - Game 1 as manager and Kapler is already taking heat. In a city like Philly, that canít be overlooked.

    I agree - use the talent you have. You leave your #1 SP in the game when he has thrown 63 pitches and given up 3 hits in 5.1 innings. Donít pull him to go to lesser talent because some data suggests he may start to struggle. Nola had zero leash the 3rd time through the lineup. That is crazy IMO.


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  11. #26
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    Only two pitchers stayed in the game 3rd time though the lineup yesterday in all of baseball. Corey kluber and Clayton Kershaw. No starters broke 100 pitches.

  12. #27
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    I do not think Philly is at a disadvantage in using so many relievers because the Braves used just as many.

    I think both managers pulled the starter too early.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrench View Post
    Only two pitchers stayed in the game 3rd time though the lineup yesterday in all of baseball. Corey kluber and Clayton Kershaw. No starters broke 100 pitches.
    Context is needed here...

    How many went past 68 pitches?
    - All of them. In fact, only 4 SPs other than Nola threw less than 80 pitches and all of them were being hit hard.

    How many had allowed 4 base runners and had a shutout going?
    - None. Blach from SF went 5 IP with 3 hits and 3 BB. He was also at 81 pitches and was PH for in the top of the 6th.

    How many had 48 strikes/20 balls (2.5/1 ratio)?
    - None.

    I get your point, but at the rate Nola was going he was not over worked at all. Kapler simply was playing 1 of 2 thoughts:

    1) Nola didnít need to keep going through the line-up a 3rd time. I actually donít believe this. It just makes too little sense.

    2) He was playing the lefty-lefty matchup against Freeman with a guy who had some success against him. This, I believe, is the real thought process. But I donít think you take out your ace, with that lead and that few pitches, at that point in the game.

    Lastly, why let Nola go out for the 6th at all? PH for him in the top of the 6th (a 4 run inning that Nola ended with runners on 1/3) to have him come out and knowingly face Inciarte & Freeman?

    It was a really short-sighted decision on Kaplerís part IMO.


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  14. #29
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    I don't think Philly's manager will last long. I'm not sure what that replay was about. As a Braves' fan, I want him to get a lifetime contract.

    Folty is a weird game, and Suzuki hasn't done him a lot of favors. Loving the strikeouts, though.
    Last edited by iamaj; 03-30-2018 at 08:51 PM.

  15. #30
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    Suzuki hit on the right wrist while batting. He's staying in.

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