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  1. #166
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    A lot of numbers that actually back up the 3 spot is actually one of the least important spots in the lineup, especially near the top. From an analytical sense, according to a book called ďThe BookĒ, from an overal importance standpoint, your best hitters should be ordered 2,4,1,5,3 with 3 and 5 having very similar value.

    At a bit more granular level, the idea is to start your lineup construction by taking your top 2 hitters and look at their skills. If one is higher obp and the other has more power, then slot the obp guy at 2 and the power guy at 4. Then find your next best obp guy and put him at leadoff. Then look at your next two best hitters and slot them at 3 and 5, prioritizing power at 3 and obp/average at 5. Then 6-9 go in order of quality of hitter, with the only caveat being you can prioritize speed slightly higher since stringing hits together is harder for the inferior hitters near the bottom, so a stolen base can be more valuable.

    Iíve never read the entire book, which breaks down even more statistical ways to build lineups like platoons and separating righties and lefties, but at a high level, this is the optimal way to statistically build the lineup. I wouldnít marry myself to that strategy, but it does make sense. So moving yellich off of one of the more important spots to a lesser spot doesnít make sense.

    But even if you donít buy that analysis, it still doesnít make a ton of sense for me. The idea is move him from a run scoring role to a run producing role, but it hurts the run producing chances. You arenít getting another yellich to hit 2 and get on base as much as he does. So youíre minimizing the impact of the 3 hole by having less obp guys in front of it. You also ďhurtĒ either Shaw or Aguilar or both by getting them less total at bats by moving them down in the order.

    To me, moving a Braun to the 2 hole, at least at the moment, is basically rewarding a struggling player with extra at bats while punishing your producing players with less at bats, since they get moved down.

  2. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    A lot of numbers that actually back up the 3 spot is actually one of the least important spots in the lineup, especially near the top. From an analytical sense, according to a book called ďThe BookĒ, from an overal importance standpoint, your best hitters should be ordered 2,4,1,5,3 with 3 and 5 having very similar value.

    At a bit more granular level, the idea is to start your lineup construction by taking your top 2 hitters and look at their skills. If one is higher obp and the other has more power, then slot the obp guy at 2 and the power guy at 4. Then find your next best obp guy and put him at leadoff. Then look at your next two best hitters and slot them at 3 and 5, prioritizing power at 3 and obp/average at 5. Then 6-9 go in order of quality of hitter, with the only caveat being you can prioritize speed slightly higher since stringing hits together is harder for the inferior hitters near the bottom, so a stolen base can be more valuable.

    Iíve never read the entire book, which breaks down even more statistical ways to build lineups like platoons and separating righties and lefties, but at a high level, this is the optimal way to statistically build the lineup. I wouldnít marry myself to that strategy, but it does make sense. So moving yellich off of one of the more important spots to a lesser spot doesnít make sense.

    But even if you donít buy that analysis, it still doesnít make a ton of sense for me. The idea is move him from a run scoring role to a run producing role, but it hurts the run producing chances. You arenít getting another yellich to hit 2 and get on base as much as he does. So youíre minimizing the impact of the 3 hole by having less obp guys in front of it. You also ďhurtĒ either Shaw or Aguilar or both by getting them less total at bats by moving them down in the order.

    To me, moving a Braun to the 2 hole, at least at the moment, is basically rewarding a struggling player with extra at bats while punishing your producing players with less at bats, since they get moved down.
    Thames gets on base via walk a lot. I just personally think Yelich would be a great 3-hitter. What makes him fit at 2? Is he their best hitter? Or does he match up perfectly with two-hitter diagnosis? Does Cain have better obp and should hit 2? A lot of that is over analyzing IMO. I just think Yelich puts together good ABs and would be one of the best run-producers on the team. The problem though as you mentioned is not a ton of other good options at 2.

    Maybe Thames, Santana walks quite a bit but Ks a ton. Too bad Villar hasn't proven he could be trusted but I like him at 6 as he can steal and get in scoring position for Pina/Saladino who aren't as likely power sources or as likely to get a hit.

    I don't mind him at 2, I just think Yelich if there were options would be a great 3-hitter. Puts together good ABs and doesn't go in many cold spells as he has a great swing.

    With Braun in I think I keep lineup as it has been by and large with 3-4-5 being Aguilar-Shaw-Braun and Yelich at 2; with Santana I think Cain-Santana-Yelich-Aguilar-Shaw-Villar..

  3. #168
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    Here's the Tom Tango batting order optimization crewfan was talking about https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...your-lineup-by

    Cliff notes:

    1= Your best OBP hitter without power. Speed is nice
    2= High OBP. One of your 3 best hitters, power not quite as important.
    3= your 4th-5th best hitter. Pick the guy with more power.
    4= Best hitter with power
    5= Your 4th-5th best hitter. Pick the guy with less power.
    6-9= best to worst.

    So with the Brewers current group of players it should probably look like this:

    Cain
    Yelich
    Aguilar
    Shaw
    Braun/Santana
    Villar
    Pina
    Arcia
    Pitcher

    And what do you know, that's basically what we see.

  4. #169
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    Precisely. The article actually indicates that batting the pitcher 8th actually gives a tiny advantage of about 2 runs per year as well. But Iíd argue for a team like the brewers, who donít typically ask their starters to go deep into the game, that putting the pitcher as low as possible probably results in a few extra pinch hit appearances, which could offset those two runs.

    Thereís room for offensive improvement, but that has to come from improvement for the guys at the bottom. Iím not sure thereís much improvement that can come from lineup optimization.

    And as I said earlier as well. I wouldnít 100% marry myself to the lineup optimization strategy, but it makes sense. Id also factor in splitting up lefties and things like that, but this lineup does a good job of that. When thames returns, thereís probably an argument to try to find a way to split lefties a little better if he earns a lot of starts. But that something to worry about when/if that occurs.

  5. #170
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    I agree, splitting Shaw/Thames is the most important thing to me. Don't let the opposition bring in a lefty reliever and get to face those two back to back without having one of braun/santana/aguilar in between them. (I know Santana has been trash vs lefties this year, but i doubt that continues)

    Now that Counsell has ripped the bandaid off moving braun out of the 3 hole getting the l/r/l/r... line up should be easier.

  6. #171
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    Yelich deal update

    Yelich .307/.372./.492 1.6 WAR

    Brinson .155/.198/.257 -0.3WAR Great Defense
    Harrison .245/.324/.429 7 HR 82 K's 219 PA
    Diaz .196/.324/.340
    Yomamoto only 5 innings, injured until this past week.

    I'd say Stearns did pretty well.

  7. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    Yelich deal update

    Yelich .307/.372./.492 1.6 WAR

    Brinson .155/.198/.257 -0.3WAR Great Defense
    Harrison .245/.324/.429 7 HR 82 K's 219 PA
    Diaz .196/.324/.340
    Yomamoto only 5 innings, injured until this past week.

    I'd say Stearns did pretty well.
    Stearns is a stud GM. Deal for Shaw even better. Minor deal getting Broxton and Susac (who was just promoted to AA because he has been so good) for Jason freaking Rogers was great too. Teams might not deal with us going forward. Luc/Jeffress deal also been phenomenal as basically ended up being just Luc for Ortiz, Brinson, Cordell and basically getting Jeffress back, too. Wow. Also flyer on Guerra as first move and flyer on Aguilar have turned out to be great. Stearns and scouts have been great helping this be a very quick rebuild.

  8. #173
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    Gotta give some credit to Melvin too for the setup. The Gomez/fiers for Santana, hader, Phillips and houser was a brilliant move.

    But I think the way we did our rebuild is totally underrated. Instead of just building the farm and basically ignoring the big leagues for our rebuild, we took chances on big league guys who were controllable.

    Like, most of us probably thought guys like Shaw and Anderson were throw ins and that guys like isan Diaz and josh Pennington were the real prizes. And a lot of rebuilding teams think that way and maximize prospect talent. But we took chances on big league caliber players who had upside. Villar fits that mold as well. Instead of just building the farm, we also took chances at the big league level. Same goes with dfa guys like Aguilar and Perez. Those are guys who were basically nobodies but we gave them a shot and they panned out. Granted, we had plenty of misses, like on the nick franklins and those types, but I like taking some chances on dfa guys if you have the roster space. Youíll miss more than you hit, but a decent hit makes it totally worth it.

    Stearns has been really good so far. I really liked his yellich and Cain moves as well. But itíll be interesting to see how he handles potentially contending on a smaller payroll. Heís been good so far, but 1 or 2 bad free agent deals can absolutely sink you in a small market.

  9. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Gotta give some credit to Melvin too for the setup. The Gomez/fiers for Santana, hader, Phillips and houser was a brilliant move.

    But I think the way we did our rebuild is totally underrated. Instead of just building the farm and basically ignoring the big leagues for our rebuild, we took chances on big league guys who were controllable.

    Like, most of us probably thought guys like Shaw and Anderson were throw ins and that guys like isan Diaz and josh Pennington were the real prizes. And a lot of rebuilding teams think that way and maximize prospect talent. But we took chances on big league caliber players who had upside. Villar fits that mold as well. Instead of just building the farm, we also took chances at the big league level. Same goes with dfa guys like Aguilar and Perez. Those are guys who were basically nobodies but we gave them a shot and they panned out. Granted, we had plenty of misses, like on the nick franklins and those types, but I like taking some chances on dfa guys if you have the roster space. Youíll miss more than you hit, but a decent hit makes it totally worth it.

    Stearns has been really good so far. I really liked his yellich and Cain moves as well. But itíll be interesting to see how he handles potentially contending on a smaller payroll. Heís been good so far, but 1 or 2 bad free agent deals can absolutely sink you in a small market.
    Thank goodness the Mets nixed that trade for Flores and Wheeler. Brewers got a haul I don't think they expected to get with Santana, Hader, Hauser, Phillips. Stearns has been great I agree.

  10. #175
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    Itís crazy to think about, but from the point of that trade forward, we might have gotten the 3, possibly 4 most valuable players. I donít think houser develops enough to surpass Gomez and fiers, but hader, Phillips and Santana are probably the 3 best players in that deal.

  11. #176
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    My God is this offense frustrating.

  12. #177
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    Get used to it man. Itís the way baseball is going. Lots of offenses are really streaky. Just hope when your offense is down that you can sneak out a few wins and make hay when the bats come back alive.

  13. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Get used to it man. Itís the way baseball is going. Lots of offenses are really streaky. Just hope when your offense is down that you can sneak out a few wins and make hay when the bats come back alive.
    Like last two vs. Phillies. Wow a welcomed sight! Ji-Man Choi hasn't been great but he has had some very big hits for this team. Add another today with GS. Good to see Braun driving in runs as well. Aguilar continues to deliver big hits also with RISP.

  14. #179
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    Felt great to finally get a series vs the Cubs. Their pitching still shut down the Brewers offense for the most part, but the Brewers pitchers really stepped up outside of the blow up 11th inning by Albers.

    Hopefully this series exorcizes the cubs demons for the year and the Brewers play a little more relaxed. I think you can tell they've been pressing so far. On edge.

  15. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by long ball View Post
    Felt great to finally get a series vs the Cubs. Their pitching still shut down the Brewers offense for the most part, but the Brewers pitchers really stepped up outside of the blow up 11th inning by Albers.

    Hopefully this series exorcizes the cubs demons for the year and the Brewers play a little more relaxed. I think you can tell they've been pressing so far. On edge.
    Agreed on both points. Obviously great to get a series win over Cubs. But, man this offense has to find a way to manufacture more runs. Had numerous chances with runner on third less than two outs and failed every time. Hope this does help team relax vs. Cubs as you said were pressing and it was visible.

    Wonder what is going to happen with Brewers at SS, C and SP. The last one because team needs a frontline pitcher and can't expect Nelson to come back at close to 2017 form. Still not even on a mound yet. Kratz is having a stretch like Sogard did for 3 weeks that you know won't last. Pina has been putrid at the dish and Arcia is in a really bad way. Maybe Brewers can buy low on Lucroy. Can't think it'd take much to get him. Hitting just .258 with 1 HR in 186 ABs with Oakland and split time with Pina, who is a very good defensive catcher.

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