The Quarterback Thread

[Jack the Ripper]

We have a lot of QB conversation spilling over to several other threads. Since this will be the primary topic of debate over the next month, we may as well have a thread dedicated to it.

[Jack the Ripper]

I'm not concerned with the Jets trade today. I will repeat what I posted in the NFL forum. Since 2000, there have only been two occasions in which more than two QBs were taken in the top 10. The first was in 2011, which was a weak draft, and the other in 2012. That's it, guys. Twice. We can safely assume that 2018 will be the third such draft to see three QBs go in the top 10, but the belief that will have three taken in the top 5 is silly. It won't happen that way.

Neither the Giants or Broncos are spending their picks on QBs. Right now, Cleveland will spend either the 1st or 4th pick on a QB and the Jets obviously moved up for one. One of Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield is going to escape the top 5 and I believe the Bills are going to trade up for whichever QB that is. My guess is that Tampa Bay at #7, Chicago at #8, or San Francisco at #9 will be the landing spot for our Bills and that will round out the QBs taken in the top 10. The next one won't come off the board until much later and Josh Allen is going to see a significant slide.

[smood999]

I'm not concerned with the Jets trade today. I will repeat what I posted in the NFL forum. Since 2000, there have only been two occasions in which more than two QBs were taken in the top 10. The first was in 2011, which was a weak draft, and the other in 2012. That's it, guys. Twice. We can safely assume that 2018 will be the third such draft to see three QBs go in the top 10, but the belief that will have three taken in the top 5 is silly. It won't happen that way.

Neither the Giants or Broncos are spending their picks on QBs. Right now, Cleveland will spend either the 1st or 4th pick on a QB and the Jets obviously moved up for one. One of Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield is going to escape the top 5 and I believe the Bills are going to trade up for whichever QB that is. My guess is that Tampa Bay at #7, Chicago at #8, or San Francisco at #9 will be the landing spot for our Bills and that will round out the QBs taken in the top 10. The next one won't come off the board until much later and Josh Allen is going to see a significant slide.

If Darnold or Rosen are one of the guys that are available outside of the top 5, my guess is it will be because Josh Allen went before one or both of them. I'm not confident in a team picking Mayfield before Darnold or Rosen. Allen is clearly the wildcard here.

[Jack the Ripper]

If Darnold or Rosen are one of the guys that are available outside of the top 5, my guess is it will be because Josh Allen went before one or both of them. I'm not confident in a team picking Mayfield before Darnold or Rosen. Allen is clearly the wildcard here.

I can't see Allen going that high. He's coming out of college with a career 56.2 completion percentage. That makes me believe he's going to see a significant fall.

Rosen has no connection to Cleveland from everything that I have read. Which QB the Bills see on the board seems to come down to whether the Jets moved up for Rosen or Mayfield because they will likely have their choice of both.

[smood999]

5 Reasons Lamar Jackson is the Bills’ Target in the Draft
by Fernando Henrique-Schmude 03/18/2018

The Buffalo Bills are determined to select the right QB prospect in this year’s NFL Draft to lead the team back to a Super Bowl appearance and become their first franchise QB since Jim Kelly. GM Brandon Beane and HC Sean McDermott are determined to assure they will be able to pick “their guy” to man this mission and another trade up, this time to the top 5, can be seen on the horizon. But who is the guy they’re targeting? I think it’s the electrifying Louisville product, and here are five reasons why:

The Face of “The Process”

As Erik Turner (@cover_1_) detailed in his Lamar Jackson scouting report, the former Cardinal is an impeccable prospect character-wise, thanks to dedication from his mom to keep him on the track of success. He was always the most athletically gifted guy on the field, but his discipline and commitment to always work hard on his craft was what made him evolve as a passer, year after year. Despite being only 21 years old, Jackson showed maturity in his combine interviews and made a statement when he chose to only throw at the event and not run the 40 yard dash. He’s a QB and will prove himself at the next level, just like he always did in his life. Looks like a “process” guy to me.

He fits what this front office really values at the QB position

Donovan McNabb; Michael Vick; Cam Newton. What do those guys have in common? They were the QBs McDermott had during his NFL career prior to the Buffalo Bills. Cam was hand-picked by the Panthers to be their franchise QB, with Beane having some say in that selection. But other than that, they were able to led their teams to the big stage (McNabb and Newton to SB appearances, Vick to a pair of NFC championship games). Also, all of them were considered generational talents at some point in their college careers, and Jackson shares this recognition. The former Heisman winner is the most electrifying QB to come out of college since Michael Vick himself.

His combination of elite athleticism with a powerful arm and lightning quick release make the comparison obvious. Vick was a QB that changed the game and made everyone think what could have been if he had a better head over his shoulders back in the day. Jackson can be the answer to this previously hypothetical question. This is the type of QB Beane and McDermott are looking for, a guy around whom who you can build your offense and be successful. Jackson fits the bill; the sky is the limit for this kid.

Bobby Petrino’s and Brian Daboll’s effect

Looking at Jackson’s film, it’s easy to say his college game doesn’t translate well to the NFL. But when you look closer, that’s far from the reality. Jackson worked under former NFL head coach and QB guru Bobby Petrino at Louisville and was asked to make a lot of NFL reads playing in his pro-style offense.

Five receivers into a route, reads the defense and hits his WR

Obviously, Petrino adjusted the offense to take advantage of all of Jackson’s strengths. Now enter Brian Daboll. The former Alabama Crimson Tide OC is the perfect man to build an offense around Jackson’s skill-set. Daboll’s offense is run-oriented, just like Carolina’s offense with Newton at the helm when Beane and McDermott were there. At Alabama, Daboll had success with dual-threat Jalen Hurts as his starting QB, and we can assume Jackson would elevate that offense to a whole new level. Having LeSean McCoy as the centerpiece of the offense with Jackson as the QB could make the Bills the most dangerous rushing offense in the league.

He’s a day one starter and a dangerous one

A lot of people believe Jackson will need to sit and learn from a veteran until he refines his passing skill to become a more efficient NFL passer. I disagree, and in fact, I believe he can be an efficient and dangerous starting quarterback from day one. With Brian Daboll’s help, Jackson can be a nightmare for opposing defenses early in his career. Just like Deshaun Watson, another guy who was supposed to need to learn from the bench, Jackson can surprise a lot of people early, with everything he brings to the table as the dynamic weapon he already is. He’s far from a finished product, but he’s already a guy whom opposing DCs will need to give special attention.

Smokescreen

Here’s where I think Beane and the Bills organization are working hard to not let anyone know their true intentions. We already heard rumors about the Bills loving Josh Allen, how Darnold looks like a true McDermott guy, and even how Beane may be able to use his Dave Gettleman relationship to work on a trade with the Giants and grab Josh Rosen at #2 overall. But we’ve heard very little about a Bills-Jackson connection. Even those absurd Bill Polian Jackson-to-wide-receiver comments could be part of a huge smokescreen plan coming from One Bills Drive, given the obvious Polian-Pegula connection. What people are missing is that the move from 22 to 12 already put the Bills in striking position, and surely Beane will keep looking for a move up to assure his guy is there when the Bills are on the clock. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills select Jackson in the top 5; remember, Michael Vick was a no brainer #1 overall pick in 2001, and this kid has the very same potential. I think the Bills have taken notice.

https://www.cover1.net/5-reasons-lam...-in-the-draft/

These are a lot of the same reasons I pointed out as to why we can't rule him out. The second reason is a big one.

[SacBillsFan]

I have not been a Allen supporter to this point. But I just watched 3 games from start to finish. And he was basically playing by himself.Im not sure Ive ever seen a worse offensive line. He never has any time to throw the ball.I noticed he changes plays, and setups protection. It looked to me he scans the entire field, you can see him getting to his 2,3,4 option.He made some bad throws that were his fault.There was three or four plays where as soon as he gets the ball the entire D line is on him in seconds.Im not totally sure the completion percentage is as bad as it looks on first glance. He makes things happen with his feet as well. Im not saying he is great, or anything but Im going to watch a few more games from start to finish.Maybe he growing on me.

[Old Smuggler]

If the Bills stay at #12, it is going to be hard to convince the fan base that was the plan all along, especially with the Jets beating us to the punch.

[smood999]

If the Bills stay at #12, it is going to be hard to convince the fan base that was the plan all along, especially with the Jets beating us to the punch.

It was clearly not the plan and it will be disappointing. I say that while being high on Jackson and knowing they can easily draft him and keep all of their assets. I would like to see them go all in. It's been long overdue.

[smood999]

I have not been a Allen supporter to this point. But I just watched 3 games from start to finish. And he was basically playing by himself.Im not sure Ive ever seen a worse offensive line. He never has any time to throw the ball.I noticed he changes plays, and setups protection. It looked to me he scans the entire field, you can see him getting to his 2,3,4 option.He made some bad throws that were his fault.There was three or four plays where as soon as he gets the ball the entire D line is on him in seconds.Im not totally sure the completion percentage is as bad as it looks on first glance. He makes things happen with his feet as well. Im not saying he is great, or anything but Im going to watch a few more games from start to finish.Maybe he growing on me.

Yes, but the same applies to Jackson and he had to do it against better competition, that's why I'm still worried although it is true. I believe it was Pro Football Focus that charted all of their passes and concluded that Jackson and I think Rosen suffered the most from their WRs not catching balls. It wasn't even close. I know for sure that Jackson was one of the two, I have to double check to see if Rosen was the other.

[Jack the Ripper]

Average time to throw (QB's time to pass, in seconds):
1. Mason Rudolph, 2.58
2. Sam Darnold, 2.60
3. Josh Rosen, 2.60
4. Baker Mayfield, 2.98
5. Lamar Jackson, 3.05
6. Josh Allen, 3.08

Passer rating on quick passes (thrown within 2.5 seconds of the snap):
1. Baker Mayfield, 131.9
2. Mason Rudolph, 114.9
3. Lamar Jackson, 108.9
4. Josh Rosen, 107.9
5. Sam Darnold, 100.4
6. Josh Allen, 89.6

Passer rating on longer passes (thrown 2.6 seconds or more after the snap):
1. Baker Mayfield, 139.1
2. Mason Rudolph, 116.7
3. Sam Darnold, 91.6
4. Lamar Jackson, 86.1
5. Josh Rosen, 85.5
6. Josh Allen, 84.8

[Jack the Ripper]

Here is how I could see the top 10 playing out.

1. Cleveland Browns, QB Josh Rosen
2. New York Giants, RB Saquan Barkley
3. New York Jets, QB Sam Darnold
4. Cleveland Browns, CB Denzel Ward
5. Denver Broncos, DE Bradley Chubb
6. Indianapolis Colts, DE Marcus Davenport
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, S Minkah Fitzpatrick
8. Chicago Bears, OG Quenton Nelson
9. Buffalo Bills (via San Francisco 49ers), QB Baker Mayfield
10. Oakland Raiders, LB Tremaine Edmunds

My thoughts:
After their 1st round pick, the 49ers don't draft again until #59. Their original 2nd round pick was traded to New England in the Garoppolo trade. The Bills would be an attractive trade partner to them. Picks #12, #22, and one of #53 or #56 would add up to a similar value to the Jets package to move up three spots.

I should add that I would be really happy with this scenario. I love Mayfield.

The other QB landing spots, as I see it: Josh Allen (#28, Pittsburgh Steelers), Mason Rudolph (#40, Denver Broncos), Lamar Jackson (#47, Arizona Cardinals).

[SacBillsFan]

Yes, but the same applies to Jackson and he had to do it against better competition, that's why I'm still worried although it is true. I believe it was Pro Football Focus that charted all of their passes and concluded that Jackson and I think Rosen suffered the most from their WRs not catching balls. It wasn't even close. I know for sure that Jackson was one of the two, I have to double check to see if Rosen was the other.

Im not getting sold on Jackson....Not to say you dont have a point.When I watch him its different.He does not get off his first option.Let alone his 3rd or 4th.He takes off and runs to much for me.I want a QB that I can have a gameplan to attack a D where it weakest.Not this we have to have a gameplan for our QB because he limited.He might be decent.But really coach got rid of Cardale Jones,big strong arm kid and drafted Peterman.someone who was suppose to be able to throw into windows, and go under center.Then they get rid of TT, and get AJ. Got rid of a moble QB for once again a better passer of the football.I dont see Jackson as a option.Getting rid of Cardell Jones makes me think Allen may not be a option for them either.I get they did not draft Cardale.Also getting rid of TT makes me think Jackson is not there type either.

[smood999]

Im not getting sold on Jackson....Not to say you dont have a point.When I watch him its different.He does not get off his first option.Let alone his 3rd or 4th.He takes off and runs to much for me.I want a QB that I can have a gameplan to attack a D where it weakest.Not this we have to have a gameplan for our QB because he limited.He might be decent.But really coach got rid of Cardale Jones,big strong arm kid and drafted Peterman.someone who was suppose to be able to throw into windows, and go under center.Then they get rid of TT, and get AJ. Got rid of a moble QB for once again a better passer of the football.I dont see Jackson as a option.Getting rid of Cardell Jones makes me think Allen may not be a option for them either.I get they did not draft Cardale.Also getting rid of TT makes me think Jackson is not there type either.

Not about selling you on Jackson. It has more to do with Allen. He is the last option of the five for me.

[SacBillsFan]

Average time to throw (QB's time to pass, in seconds):
1. Mason Rudolph, 2.58
2. Sam Darnold, 2.60
3. Josh Rosen, 2.60
4. Baker Mayfield, 2.98
5. Lamar Jackson, 3.05
6. Josh Allen, 3.08

Passer rating on quick passes (thrown within 2.5 seconds of the snap):
1. Baker Mayfield, 131.9
2. Mason Rudolph, 114.9
3. Lamar Jackson, 108.9
4. Josh Rosen, 107.9
5. Sam Darnold, 100.4
6. Josh Allen, 89.6

Passer rating on longer passes (thrown 2.6 seconds or more after the snap):
1. Baker Mayfield, 139.1
2. Mason Rudolph, 116.7
3. Sam Darnold, 91.6
4. Lamar Jackson, 86.1
5. Josh Rosen, 85.5
6. Josh Allen, 84.8

I have a question...When watching Allen he would run for his life and then have to throw the ball on the run or with someone in his face. I have only watched 3 games from start to finish.Is this the 3 seconds they claim he has to throw?Or is this added in? In the 3 games Ive watched its clear he does not have a clean pocket more ofter then not, but really makes great plays just moving around to free a second to throw.Im still not 100 percent a Allen supporter.But I think its unfair to make it look like on paper he has all this time.

[Jack the Ripper]

I have a question...When watching Allen he would run for his life and then have to throw the ball on the run or with someone in his face. I have only watched 3 games from start to finish.Is this the 3 seconds they claim he has to throw?Or is this added in? In the 3 games Ive watched its clear he does not have a clean pocket more ofter then not, but really makes great plays just moving around to free a second to throw.Im still not 100 percent a Allen supporter.But I think its unfair to make it look like on paper he has all this time.

These numbers came straight from PFF. You bring up a valid question, but I'm unsure what the answer is.