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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    Kendry's and Drew had first round picks attached and were much older, this is a guy in his prime who hit 40 home runs with a 2nd rounder attached.
    How on earth was a guy like him supposed to know to take the QO?
    He is a career 96 wRC+ 3B in a market with no good third basemen.

    I thought he, Cobb and Lynn should have accepted the QO. I didn't think Holland and Arrieta would still be out there though.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    Unless your a stud, you should take the QO is what I learned from this off season.

    Teams are not going to give up their picks for you and you will get ****ed f you reject it.

    If enough teams start getting stuck paying a guy 17-20 million a year, they will stop offering QO to the next middle of the road guy.

    If your a middle of the road guy and a team is willing to give you 17-20 million for one year?, then take it and be ****ing really happy.


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    And know that they can't offer it to you again next year any way.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Collusion is a huge acquisition that people keep making, and I can say with 95% certainty, even not working in the sport, that that isn't happening.

    These teams know how bad of a value these guys are.

    It's a 2nd rounder, a 5th rounder, and $1M to their international signing bonuses (depending on which team were to sign him).

    That's more significant than a first rounder.

    And this is for players that aren't really major upgrades for a lot of organizations.

    How many contending teams had worse performances at third base last year than what Moose produced for the Royals?

    Moose produced 2.2 fWAR last year.

    18 teams in baseball produced 2.3 fWAR from third base last year from what they had in house.


    Of the other 11? (excluding the Royals here)

    D'Backs had 2.1, they were a contending team (Jake Lamb is there in 2018) and Lamb was 2.5, just Rosales as a backup was of negative value.
    Also, the D'Backs couldn't afford to bring back Martinez, so they wouldn't be chasing Moose.

    The Angels could potentially be a contending team in 2018. But they signed Cosart without the QO for 3 years and $30 something. And they still got 2.0 fWAR out of 3B from Escobar, Valbuena, and Cowart.

    White Sox are rebuilding
    Rays had Longo and traded him away for financial reasons
    Padres can't get him AND Hosmer
    Marlins can't afford him
    Braves are rebuilding and have a ton of infield prospects that he would just be blocking (I like Riley quite a bit personally)
    Red Sox have Devers
    Phillies have Franco and Crawford, could do better at 3B, seem to have spent their cash on Santana instead
    Giants traded for Longo

    Where was the market going to develop for him?

    The Yankees have a luxury tax concern, reasonably so, and the rest of the league doesn't see him as an upgrade over what they already have, or they have a young player they want to see play there everyday.

    People are blaming collusion, instead of realizing that this free agent market is lackluster, they are Boras clients who thinks they should be getting Ellsbury sized deals everywhere, and the league knows guys over 30 regress rapidly.

    The CBA needs to address how to get players paid better while younger. That will fix it.

    This is certainly not collusion. Or if it is, this isn't enough evidence to paint that picture.



    Btw, 38 home runs in a juiced year where the home run record was broken for a single season.
    He hit 38 home runs with a league average OBP.
    Logan Morrison hit 38 home runs, so did Justin Smoak. Khris Davis hit 43, Jay Bruce hit 36, etc. It's not that impressive when shown in context to what's around him.

    To put this into perspective. He hit 38 home runs. And the league hit 6105. So he hit .0062% of the leagues home runs.

    To compare that to 2014, when the league hit 4186 home runs, that's the equivalent of hitting 26 home runs that year.
    I really don't think the 2nd rounder and ESPECIALLY the 5th rounder mattered at all to any of the teams, the 1million to the international bonus pool might, but even that I doubt since, look at how many top Latin prospects bust every year, and how many unheralded guys that sign for 30k end up being big-time prospects. Those players are so far away from the majors they likely don't make any difference in regards to teams year to year plans.

    IDK at what point are we over valuing WAR though.

    Cozart could play 2nd though, they ended up spending more on Ian Kinsler to play 2nd than the royals spent on Moustakas, and Moose fits the line up a lot better.
    The Phillies do have Franco, but he was much worse last year, and has had two straight down years. Crawfrod (JP right?) is their SS of the present/future.
    I don't see why the Padres couldn't afford both, but they do have some interesting prospects, IDK how they view, Fernando Tatis Jr positionally though.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    He is a career 96 wRC+ 3B in a market with no good third basemen.

    I thought he, Cobb and Lynn should have accepted the QO. I didn't think Holland and Arrieta would still be out there though.
    You have to go pretty far back to make the case that Moustakas in his prime is a 96 wRC+ 3b, the last 3 years he's put up 117 OPS+

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    You have to go pretty far back to make the case that Moustakas in his prime is a 96 wRC+ 3b, the last 3 years he's put up 117 OPS+
    Okay (wRC+)

    114 last year
    113 over the last two years
    118 over the last three years
    106 over the last four etc (and drops each year you expand from there)

    Been better these last three years, obviously.

    But even at 114 last year, that is 10th out of the 22 qualifying third basemen, a position whose league average is 102. The equivalent of Eric Thames over the league average 1B.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    I really don't think the 2nd rounder and ESPECIALLY the 5th rounder mattered at all to any of the teams, the 1million to the international bonus pool might, but even that I doubt since, look at how many top Latin prospects bust every year, and how many unheralded guys that sign for 30k end up being big-time prospects. Those players are so far away from the majors they likely don't make any difference in regards to teams year to year plans.
    It's the sheer volume of all that, plus the lose in draft signing bonuses that allow for upside picks throughout the draft for a 2 win player who will regress.

    It's all of that combined that creates this negative value before you even sign the guy.

    That on field, down the line value, is pretty tremendous. Even if we just give the average 2nd rounder a surplus value of $2M, and the average 5th rounder a surplus value of $500K, and the average $1M IA bonus money a surplus value of $2M, and the aggregate lost value of signing dollars another $500K, that's $5M in surplus value that is lost off the bat, before the guy even takes the field.

    Then you are going to pay retail to watch his inevitable decline?


    IDK at what point are we over valuing WAR though.
    I guess it depends?

    He is a 2 win player. A team should expect to win 2 more games a year that has Moose playing third base for them all season over a replacement level AAAA player.

    Cozart could play 2nd though, they ended up spending more on Ian Kinsler to play 2nd than the royals spent on Moustakas, and Moose fits the line up a lot better.
    The Phillies do have Franco, but he was much worse last year, and has had two straight down years. Crawfrod (JP right?) is their SS of the present/future.
    I don't see why the Padres couldn't afford both, but they do have some interesting prospects, IDK how they view, Fernando Tatis Jr positionally though.
    Sure, but all of this is a stretch to fit in a guy that isn't really worth a team expanding their comfort zone for.

    It's the combo effect.


    No market
    Too high of an asking price
    lost farm system value
    Player profile has limited upside and he is really a 1.5 tool player (power and adequate defense at third for now)

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Okay (wRC+)

    114 last year
    113 over the last two years
    118 over the last three years
    106 over the last four etc (and drops each year you expand from there)

    Been better these last three years, obviously.

    But even at 114 last year, that is 10th out of the 22 qualifying third basemen, a position whose league average is 102. The equivalent of Eric Thames over the league average 1B.
    More so what I'm getting at is....how many teams are going to shell out big bucks, and lose prospects for the 10th best third basemen in the league?

    If the market showed a lack of good third basemen on contending teams, then he probably gets that 5/$85M.

    If there were 3 .500 or better teams lacking a decent third basemen on their roster or anywhere else, and Moose was the guy on the market, then he probably finds that deal. But nobody needed him, and Boras really misread the market.

    He comes off as arrogant about creating markets when the demand isn't even there.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 03-09-2018 at 07:48 PM.

  8. #23
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    The Phillies are getting Machado soooo


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  9. #24
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    This was a really smart move by Moustakas as long as he doesn't get hurt, the Yankees and diggers aren't in the bidding next year those teams can be used in negotiations. He went where he's comfortable.

    If he happens to not do well he has a player option which the royals will have money and have no reason to not pick it up in the mutual option if he wants too. Especially when he could be used for a trade this year or next.

    I'm not sure if he gr a bo trade clause but if he is traded he could require acquiring team to make it a player option instead of mutual option. He guaranteed himself 22 million this way. He probably signs a decent deal best offseason 4/60

  10. #25
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    Royals re-sign Mike Moustakas

    Angels offered Mous 3/45m earlier this winter MLBTR


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    Baseball Maverick: How Sandy Alderson Revolutionized Baseball and Revived the Mets
    I am that Daddy Cool

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    Angels offered Mous 3/45m earlier this winter MLBTR


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    Another player that overvalued his worth. He should have taken it. Cobb was offered 3/42 by the Cubs a few months ago. I bet he wishes he would have taken that as well. I don't know why Cobb thought he would be worth more than that given his injury history and limited success.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    And know that they can't offer it to you again next year any way.
    Yup, so take that 17-20 million and run with it because odds are that now you will be lucky to get a 2 year deal worth that.


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  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    Angels offered Mous 3/45m earlier this winter MLBTR


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    https://www.thescore.com/news/1502064
    A club official from the Angels later told Buster Olney of ESPN that the three-year, $45-million deal was not offered.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    I would suspect that there was language about a 3/$45 deal, and Moose/Boras said that wouldn't be accepted, so technically it was never offered.


    Boras can say it was never offered. And the Angels can say it was.

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