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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    I personally think Judge's babip will be closer to the fans projection (330) than Zips or Steamer (315) because of his exit velo and consistent line drive stroke. His xWOBA was a mere 5 points higher than his actual wOBA.

    The league better hope that he doesn't find that September stroke again. That was ****ing ridiculous.
    I would gladly take 7 months of September 2017 Aaron Judge

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  2. #62
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    With Stanton, Sanchez, and to a lesser extent, Bird, it depends on where heís situated in the lineup when it comes to his patience in an AB. In many cases, pitchers pitch to the hitter in the box, but if youíve got Stanton coming up behind him, and with Gardnerís ability to get on base and steal bases, Judge might see more pitches in the zone if it goes Judge/Stanton/Sanchez. I think Judges full count ABs will fall this year. Without looking up numbers and just going on my observance last year, it seemed as though most of Judges strikeouts came from looking at strike 3. If heís seeing more pitches in the zone and is still able to square up on the ball like he did in April/May/September, I think he could have a big year regardless of whether he puts the ball over the fence 40+ times. But it really depends on where he is in the lineup, and how Sanchez/Stanton are doing at the plate.


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  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by RomineLettuce View Post
    With Stanton, Sanchez, and to a lesser extent, Bird, it depends on where heís situated in the lineup when it comes to his patience in an AB. In many cases, pitchers pitch to the hitter in the box, but if youíve got Stanton coming up behind him, and with Gardnerís ability to get on base and steal bases, Judge might see more pitches in the zone if it goes Judge/Stanton/Sanchez. I think Judges full count ABs will fall this year. Without looking up numbers and just going on my observance last year, it seemed as though most of Judges strikeouts came from looking at strike 3. If heís seeing more pitches in the zone and is still able to square up on the ball like he did in April/May/September, I think he could have a big year regardless of whether he puts the ball over the fence 40+ times. But it really depends on where he is in the lineup, and how Sanchez/Stanton are doing at the plate.


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    Judge made 67% contact. He Kd swinging plenty.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    Judge made 67% contact. He Kd swinging plenty.
    Does that really tell you that he K'd swinging comparatively? I know you're not disputing that but it's mroe me looking into how he K'd compared to other big time K hitters.

    He had a 13.1 swinging strike% which is in the worst 25 of fangraphs qualified hitters for 2017. His contact% was bottom 5 however his swing% was 128th worst (41.1%). Every other player in the bottom 5 of contact% had at least a 42.8 swing% or higher (Chris Davis and would put him at the 117th worst).

    Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Joey Gallo, Javier Baez, and Aaron Judge were all bottom 5 in contact%. All 5 were also bottom 10 in swinging strike%. Baez, Gallo, Reynolds were all in the bottom 100 for swing%. All 5 were in the top 10 for most Ks, all top 4 expect Reynolds was 10th.

    Sure, Judge probably K'd swinging plenty but I think with those numbers that you can say he took a lot more strike 3s looking than other high K guys.

    I wish I could see the numbers but I wonder if he swung a little more it'd actually decrease his K total since he may actually get caught looking more.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  5. #65
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    I'm a little surprised that it's so hard to find a sortable leaderboard for strike outs and strike out looking. Especially when they are always scored. And I'm not taking the time to go through all of his game logs.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    Does that really tell you that he K'd swinging comparatively? I know you're not disputing that but it's mroe me looking into how he K'd compared to other big time K hitters.

    He had a 13.1 swinging strike% which is in the worst 25 of fangraphs qualified hitters for 2017. His contact% was bottom 5 however his swing% was 128th worst (41.1%). Every other player in the bottom 5 of contact% had at least a 42.8 swing% or higher (Chris Davis and would put him at the 117th worst).

    Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Joey Gallo, Javier Baez, and Aaron Judge were all bottom 5 in contact%. All 5 were also bottom 10 in swinging strike%. Baez, Gallo, Reynolds were all in the bottom 100 for swing%. All 5 were in the top 10 for most Ks, all top 4 expect Reynolds was 10th.

    Sure, Judge probably K'd swinging plenty but I think with those numbers that you can say he took a lot more strike 3s looking than other high K guys.

    I wish I could see the numbers but I wonder if he swung a little more it'd actually decrease his K total since he may actually get caught looking more.
    He said most of his Ks came looking and I don't even need to see the comparative numbers to say that is not correct. A lot of them surely were - probably even a substantial % more than his peers - but no way were most of them.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I'm a little surprised that it's so hard to find a sortable leaderboard for strike outs and strike out looking. Especially when they are always scored. And I'm not taking the time to go through all of his game logs.
    Yeah why the hell hasn't bref done this yet. I remember in 2015 we had this same defense of Bryant and somebody had to go through the logs and calculate them himself lol

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I'm a little surprised that it's so hard to find a sortable leaderboard for strike outs and strike out looking. Especially when they are always scored. And I'm not taking the time to go through all of his game logs.
    Yup, was thinking the same thing and the same internal response, "I'm not looking through his gamelogs" lol.

    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    He said most of his Ks came looking and I don't even need to see the comparative numbers to say that is not correct. A lot of them surely were - probably even a substantial % more than his peers - but no way were most of them.
    It started as me disputing your contact% as reasoning for him striking out swinging more than looking but that post more turned into me just talking to myself about how he probably did strike out looking more than other high strike out guys.

    I'd say once you get passed a certain number, you're more likely to have more K's swinging than looking in players.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    Yeah why the hell hasn't bref done this yet. I remember in 2015 we had this same defense of Bryant and somebody had to go through the logs and calculate them himself lol
    Do you happen to remember, not the exact numbers, if it favored swinging over looking considerably?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  10. #70
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    Found this from 2013.

    http://www.captainsblog.info/2013/05...ikeouts/20121/

    Entering play today, there have been 10,199 strikeouts, good for one in every five plate appearances this season. Of that total, just over 75% have been the result of a swinging strike, while approximately 24% were called by the umpire (the other 1% are bunt-related events). Unfortunately, strikeout classification data are not readily available, so a full historical comparison isnít an easy task. However, by comparing this yearís two-month results to a similar period in 2003, when the strikeout rate was a prior decade low 16.4%, we can get a sense about which type of strikeout has fueled the overall trend.
    Over the same period in 2003, 27% of strike outs resulted from a called third strike, or 3% more than this season. Is this increase significant? The best way to determine that is by looking at the different rates on a per plate appearance basis.
    Showing both 2013 and 2003 and how they aren't that deviated from eachother, I'd be certain Judge struck out swinging more than looking.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    Found this from 2013.

    http://www.captainsblog.info/2013/05...ikeouts/20121/





    Showing both 2013 and 2003 and how they aren't that deviated from eachother, I'd be certain Judge struck out swinging more than looking.
    That sounds about right.

    3 out of every 4 strike outs are from swinging, 1 in every 4 is a take.

    Just perception based, but that sounds about right.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    Do you happen to remember, not the exact numbers, if it favored swinging over looking considerably?
    Like 3:1 swinging IIRC

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    Yup, was thinking the same thing and the same internal response, "I'm not looking through his gamelogs" lol.



    It started as me disputing your contact% as reasoning for him striking out swinging more than looking but that post more turned into me just talking to myself about how he probably did strike out looking more than other high strike out guys.

    I'd say once you get passed a certain number, you're more likely to have more K's swinging than looking in players.
    This is exactly what I was inferring. Basically if a guy seemingly takes a lot of called 3rd strikes some of us think initially, oh his K rate was because of taking pitches, but it's highly likely not to be the case.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    This is exactly what I was inferring. Basically if a guy seemingly takes a lot of called 3rd strikes some of us think initially, oh his K rate was because of taking pitches, but it's highly likely not to be the case.
    I'd say in Judge's case, though, he'd probably not be in the 75% swinging Ks since he did swing less than a lot of other hitters. But, that's without knowing how many he had.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  15. #75
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    So I looked it up, only took about 20 minutes and getting OT for it anyway lol. I missed 1 K but out of the 207 I did get, he struck out swinging 144 times; looking 63. So he's at about 70% swinging K vs 30% looking. That's right in line with the numbers I posted.

    I'm going to guess 63 is the most Ks looking last season considering Judge had the most Ks in general and he struck out looking 5% more than average.

    There were also a few games where he struck out looking more times than he did swinging. That could make it seem like he struck out looking more too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

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