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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    It is, but that's one thing I love about baseball. It doesn't mean a thing once they get playing.
    Trust me as a Cub fan, I don't need to be reminded of this. (ie Prior/Wood/Z/Clement/Maddux).

    Nonetheless, give me a rotation with talent any day of the week and I will trust that Maddon/Hickey will get the best out of these guys.
    Screw sabermetics.

  2. #47
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    We are literally watching a Cardinals and a Brewers fan fight over second place. Seems like a great signing to me!

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cubs Win View Post
    We are literally watching a Cardinals and a Brewers fan fight over second place. Seems like a great signing to me!

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
    You're right.... got a good laugh out of that. It doesn't even really matter though. IMO neither one is making the playoffs. Huge signing for the Cubs.

  4. #49
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    6 years? Mother Superior jumped the gun.


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    Baseball Maverick: How Sandy Alderson Revolutionized Baseball and Revived the Mets
    I am that Daddy Cool

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dmac View Post
    I don't. He has been declining the last few years. His walks and homeruns have gone up and his velocity has gone down. That's not a good combination. That is the reason the Cubs didn't try very hard to bring him back.
    Even with the decline I'd still prefer him over Darvish. Jake finished strong last year after a poor start. I think we've seen the best that Yu has to offer because ever since his TJ surgery the numbers haven't recovered.

    With Jake, there isn't much of a difference between Jake's sinker and change so the dip in velocity could hurt. I'm also of the belief that he could be had on a 4 or maybe even a 3 year deal.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    Even with the decline I'd still prefer him over Darvish. Jake finished strong last year after a poor start. I think we've seen the best that Yu has to offer because ever since his TJ surgery the numbers haven't recovered.

    With Jake, there isn't much of a difference between Jake's sinker and change so the dip in velocity could hurt. I'm also of the belief that he could be had on a 4 or maybe even a 3 year deal.
    Arrieta last year: 1st half 4.18 FIP 3.99 xFIP 9.06 K/9 2nd half 4.11 FIP 4.30 xFIP 8.19 K/9

    He also had a 8.38 FIP and 4.85 xFIP in sept/oct. He didn't finish strong and he wasn't better in the 2nd half last year. He's had a pretty steady regression while losing velocity. I don't always believe that FIP/xFIP does a great job of measuring guys who make a habit of getting soft contact while limiting hard contact. But those rates changed for him last year too. His hard contact spiked to 29.4% and soft contact went down to 20%. By far his worst numbers as a cub.

    In comparison here is Darvish. 1st half 3.86 FIP 3.92 xFIP 9.48 K/9 2nd half 3.78 FIP 3.18 xFIP 11.12 K/9

    In his first full season since TJ he got better as the year went on. Moving to the NL probably helped too but that is where he will now be pitching. I agree he may never get back to pre TJ numbers and his health will always be a concern moving forwards. But 2017 Darvish and Arrieta were clearly headed in different directions and Darvish doesn't have the huge red flag of lost velocity. It's not hard to see why they made Darvish a priority and wanted nothing to do with Arrieta long term.
    Last edited by Sofnr; 02-11-2018 at 12:29 PM.

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluefire View Post
    Trust me as a Cub fan, I don't need to be reminded of this. (ie Prior/Wood/Z/Clement/Maddux).

    Nonetheless, give me a rotation with talent any day of the week and I will trust that Maddon/Hickey will get the best out of these guys.
    And they even have Smyly and Montgomery as 6th starters.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

  8. #53
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    I like Darvish, but I'm glad the Astros traded for a No. 3 caliber guy like Cole over breaking the bank on a high-risk, high-reward guy like Darvish. Maybe I'm biased because I've seen the Astros destroy him a few times over the last couple of seasons, but I just don't trust paying a guy I've seen get dominated that badly $20 million+ a season.

    Big signing for the Cubs, though. That rotation is nasty, and I don't think we can completely dismiss him as an ace because of a two-game sample size in the World Series.

    Quote Originally Posted by Giannis94 View Post
    Bucks vs raptors in the ECF. Mark my words.

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by mightybosstone View Post
    I like Darvish, but I'm glad the Astros traded for a No. 3 caliber guy like Cole over breaking the bank on a high-risk, high-reward guy like Darvish. Maybe I'm biased because I've seen the Astros destroy him a few times over the last couple of seasons, but I just don't trust paying a guy I've seen get dominated that badly $20 million+ a season.

    Big signing for the Cubs, though. That rotation is nasty, and I don't think we can completely dismiss him as an ace because of a two-game sample size in the World Series.
    I'm kind of hoping for a Cubs - Astros world series next year. It would be cool to see the last two WS winners, both who went through similar rebuilds, both young teams, former division rivals, go at it. On the other hand they already scare me more then any other team in baseball and they may still grab Realmoto. Definitely would be a cool story. Who knows what happens between now and October though.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sofnr View Post
    Arrieta last year: 1st half 4.18 FIP 3.99 xFIP 9.06 K/9 2nd half 4.11 FIP 4.30 xFIP 8.19 K/9

    He also had a 8.38 FIP and 4.85 xFIP in sept/oct. He didn't finish strong and he wasn't better in the 2nd half last year. He's had a pretty steady regression while losing velocity. I don't always believe that FIP/xFIP does a great job of measuring guys who make a habit of getting soft contact while limiting hard contact. But those rates changed for him last year too. His hard contact spiked to 29.4% and soft contact went down to 20%. By far his worst numbers as a cub.

    In comparison here is Darvish. 1st half 3.86 FIP 3.92 xFIP 9.48 K/9 2nd half 3.78 FIP 3.18 xFIP 11.12 K/9

    In his first full season since TJ he got better as the year went on. Moving to the NL probably helped too but that is where he will now be pitching. I agree he may never get back to pre TJ numbers and his health will always be a concern moving forwards. But 2017 Darvish and Arrieta were clearly headed in different directions and Darvish doesn't have the huge red flag of lost velocity. It's not hard to see why they made Darvish a priority and wanted nothing to do with Arrieta long term.
    I forgot he crapped the bed in September after a solid July/August. The contact numbers also are cause for concern considering Arrieta is a ground ball pitcher. I also see he took a hit in that category (GB%) last year as well. If it were Jake on a 6 year deal then I'd probably go with Darvish but in my World I wouldn't give either of them 6 years. I'd still take Jake for 3 or 4 over Darvish for 6 though.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by mightybosstone View Post
    I like Darvish, but I'm glad the Astros traded for a No. 3 caliber guy like Cole over breaking the bank on a high-risk, high-reward guy like Darvish. Maybe I'm biased because I've seen the Astros destroy him a few times over the last couple of seasons, but I just don't trust paying a guy I've seen get dominated that badly $20 million+ a season.

    Big signing for the Cubs, though. That rotation is nasty, and I don't think we can completely dismiss him as an ace because of a two-game sample size in the World Series.
    If you can't completely dismiss him as an ace then he's likely worth 21m AAV

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    I forgot he crapped the bed in September after a solid July/August. The contact numbers also are cause for concern considering Arrieta is a ground ball pitcher. I also see he took a hit in that category (GB%) last year as well. If it were Jake on a 6 year deal then I'd probably go with Darvish but in my World I wouldn't give either of them 6 years. I'd still take Jake for 3 or 4 over Darvish for 6 though.
    I can certainly understand that. I think Darvish is the better pitcher over the next 3-4 years and I just love the potential of this rotation now. But the end of that contract is likely rough and I won't completely discount the possibility of Jake bouncing back. He's an extremely hard and dedicated worker. He may be able to adjust and continue to have some success but I doubt he can keep it up for long. I would've preferred not to give Darvish 6 years but I'm gonna leave that potential headache for another day

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartlee23 View Post
    You're right.... got a good laugh out of that. It doesn't even really matter though. IMO neither one is making the playoffs. Huge signing for the Cubs.
    I'd say they are the 4th and 5th best projected teams in the NL. Nationals, Dodgers, and Cubs, then Cards and Brewers for wild card.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I'd say they are the 4th and 5th best projected teams in the NL. Nationals, Dodgers, and Cubs, then Cards and Brewers for wild card.
    I think most current projections would disagree with the Brewers being up there, mainly because of the rotation. I do fully expect them to add atleast one more starter though. It doesn't make any sense for them not to go for it at this point.

  15. #60
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    Jun 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    No they don't

    Cards have Fowler, Carpenter, Ozuna, and Pham

    Last year wRC+
    Pham - 148
    Ozuna - 142
    Carpenter - 123
    Fowler - 121

    All higher than
    Shaw - 119
    Yelich - 115
    Cain - 115
    Braun - 110

    And this ignores that the Cardinals also have superior hitters basically everywhere else...except for catcher.

    Last year, the Cardinals had a 100 wRC+ (9th best in baseball), and got rid of two of their weaker hitters (Piscotty and Grichuk) to land a superior hitter in Ozuna.

    The Brewers had a 93 (20th best in baseball) and added two 115 wRC+


    I like the improvements for the Brewers, but let's remember the massive regression they are staring down at for 2017 with this same roster. They don't have their best starter (Nelson) until halfway into the season, and the rest of the rotation is lackluster at best (of course, they are still going to add a starter and could easily add two). And Davies and Anderson both beat their FIP by half a run per 9.

    I like the Brewers bullpen better, but that's really it.

    Their current projected standings on Fangraphs is 78. I think that's low but I don't think it's very likely they out do the Cardinals in 2018 (88 projected wins according to Fangraphs - Cubs at 94 btw - that includes Darvish)
    You talk about regression but don’t mention the potential cardinals regressions?

    Pham had a 1.6 WAR in 2015 and 0.1 in 2016. Molina is getting older. Paul DeJong came out of nowhere really.

    The only consistent hitters are Carpenter/Ozuna/Fowler

    The rest have had ups and downs


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