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  1. #1
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    Passan: Here's why baseball's economic system might be broken

    This is not to take away from the salary cap discussion we are having in another thread right now, but this is a great read by Passan and I am surprised no one has posted it yet. It's a longer read, so check the link below and post your thoughts here in this thread.

    https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseb...224638354.html

  2. #2
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    I can't stand to read anything by Jeff 'Joe Morgan hurt my feelings' Passan

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThomasTomasz View Post
    This is not to take away from the salary cap discussion we are having in another thread right now, but this is a great read by Passan and I am surprised no one has posted it yet. It's a longer read, so check the link below and post your thoughts here in this thread.

    https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseb...224638354.html
    This feels like a giant Tony Clark slam piece lol


    Any way, a couple of thoughts.


    1. Labor lawyers are going to be better heads of unions, former players can make great advisors to those lead negotiators. That's in all walks of negotiations.
    2. I feel like some of this is slightly premature. Some of the suppression this year and last comes with the knowledge that next years free agent class is insane. Teams are going to over spend next off-season, it will most likely be the greatest financial commitment in baseball off-season in history. It could see 5-6 billion in commitments. Nobody will be writing an article like this next off-season. Doesn't make Passan wrong though. I just feel like the off-season has so much uniqeness to it that some of this stuff can pop in.
    3. I am all for a change in the free agency system, that is capless.

    I would love to see minor leaguers protected by the union
    I would love to see players controlled longer/same length, but under better paying systems that don't reward teams for suppression.
    Teams that lose a marquee franchise player in free agency (Pujols, McCutchen, Harper, Trout, etc) should get a handsome reward from the league and signing team for that.


    A few things I would unilaterally implement if I had that sort of control

    1. International draft at the age 18 with players welcomed to rejoin the draft every year after their age 18 summer if they go to college
    2. Teams control the player for 10 years from their draft date
    3. Pay for those 10 years is controlled arbitrarily.
    A. While in the minors they would have tired pay based on service time (something like $25K first year, $35K second year, etc). While in the majors, until the 8th year, they receive minimums based on service time. The final three years are through arbitration based on dollars in free agency
    B. Teams could extend players beyond that 10th year, including minor league extensions
    4. Teams could specialize tag/franchise a player once every 5 years. If that player walks in free agency, they get an additional supplemental draft pick in the upcoming draft. That pick is a new, created pick.
    5. There would be additional free agency compensation for losing a player in free agency from the acquiring team, but it wouldn't be out of hand
    6. Teams could trade draft picks, but not to the level of the NBA. A pick can not have provisions/protections.
    7. No vet can sign for less than the 7th year league minimum for a big leaguer.
    8. National media contracts are shared throughout the league. Teams keep 50% of their local tv contracts, tickets, and concessions. Merch and 50% of the local tv deals are put into revenue sharing, distributed throughout the league equally with the MLB getting it's necessary umpire and league expenses covered in there. National money would also be in that pot.

    We could also play around with service time for minor/major leaguers, but there is a lot of creative ways to do things.



    All free agents hit the market at the age of 28, unless they were drafted later because of college. Prime guys will get mega long deals. Non-prime guys will get 4-5 year deals.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 01-17-2018 at 03:22 AM.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I can't stand to read anything by Jeff 'Joe Morgan hurt my feelings' Passan
    Have you read “The Arm” by Jeff Passan?


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  5. #5
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    Passan: Here's why baseball's economic system might be broken

    Quote Originally Posted by ThomasTomasz View Post
    This is not to take away from the salary cap discussion we are having in another thread right now...

    https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseb...224638354.html
    One theme in the article is similar to the proposal that started the FA thread:

    On salaries.....Of course it doesn’t make sense,” a league official concurred. “We pay you the minimum for three years and arbitration for three or four years, and then you get paid more in free agency for your decline?”...Players’ best years come in their 20s. Most free agents, then, are asking teams to guarantee them large sums of money for multiple years based on the performance of years they’re statistically unlikely to repeat.
    Somewhere I posted information on how the ROI on multi-year, $100m deals is poor. Maybe most owners are tired of watching some players piss $20+ million down the drain *cough* Ellsbury, Heyward, etc. Pay the players the largest salaries earlier in their careers when they are most productive.


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    Last edited by Dugmet; 01-17-2018 at 12:25 PM.
    Baseball Maverick: How Sandy Alderson Revolutionized Baseball and Revived the Mets
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  6. #6
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    I had to stop reading at the first mention of collusion. It’s absurd. What’s happened is that teams have realized that there’s negative value in most FA deals and the players still think they should be paid for what they’ve done not what they will do. Martinez and Cain can threaten to hold out or whatever they want, but it’s not hurting anyone else. Theres no substance behind the threat.

    Similar things are happening in the trade market too. Teams are valuing things differently than ever before and it’s showing.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    I had to stop reading at the first mention of collusion. It’s absurd. What’s happened is that teams have realized that there’s negative value in most FA deals and the players still think they should be paid for what they’ve done not what they will do. Martinez and Cain can threaten to hold out or whatever they want, but it’s not hurting anyone else. Theres no substance behind the threat.

    Similar things are happening in the trade market too. Teams are valuing things differently than ever before and it’s showing.
    This. Teams are tired of being burned by big dollar contracts for guys who aren't elite but just happen to be the best free agents at their positions.

    I still think most of the "big" free agents this year get paid. But i don't feel bad for these millionaires just because they are going against billionaires. This article and others like it make it seem like these players families are going to starve if they don't get deals soon. I'm tired of this nonsense haha

  8. #8
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    One of the main problems with the current system is that players aren't making any money when they're at their most productive. Fixing it lies within the Arbitration process.

    The way the system currently works is the first 3-4 years of a players career they’re making league min. so that means potentially their most productive years they’re making only 2 million.
    And while teams can pay a guy above league min if they want, there usually isn’t to much reason for the teams to go far above that amount.

    People also regularly talk about how expensive super 2’s are, now imagine if every year(besides the rookie year) players were in arbitration. Or making it so all players get bonuses (things like All-Star games, awards, etc) built into their rookie contracts, unless they do a guaranteed deal with the team. That would serve to get more money to the younger players in their primes while encouraging teams to sign free agents who are more (cost controlled) because you know what they’re going to get.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    One of the main problems with the current system is that players aren't making any money when they're at their most productive. Fixing it lies within the Arbitration process.

    The way the system currently works is the first 3-4 years of a players career they’re making league min. so that means potentially their most productive years they’re making only 2 million.
    And while teams can pay a guy above league min if they want, there usually isn’t to much reason for the teams to go far above that amount.

    People also regularly talk about how expensive super 2’s are, now imagine if every year(besides the rookie year) players were in arbitration. Or making it so all players get bonuses (things like All-Star games, awards, etc) built into their rookie contracts, unless they do a guaranteed deal with the team. That would serve to get more money to the younger players in their primes while encouraging teams to sign free agents who are more (cost controlled) because you know what they’re going to get.
    I agree, the system needs to change, for some. Make it to the bigs by 21 and it's not the same issue. Get the call at 26, and this is what we have. Maybe they need a system more like basketball or hockey where after your first few years you can become unrestricted with rights to match and draft pick compensations and all of that. Or just make it so teams have so many years of control from year of signing or drafting instead of 6 years upon reaching the bigs.

    If these guys would take shorter deals, they'd be signed already. If Martinez topped out at 4 and Cain at 3, they would have been signed already. I understand that guys want "security", but it's not up to GM's to provide 3-4 extra years of security to get 2-3 years of prime type production.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    I had to stop reading at the first mention of collusion. It’s absurd. What’s happened is that teams have realized that there’s negative value in most FA deals and the players still think they should be paid for what they’ve done not what they will do. Martinez and Cain can threaten to hold out or whatever they want, but it’s not hurting anyone else. Theres no substance behind the threat.

    Similar things are happening in the trade market too. Teams are valuing things differently than ever before and it’s showing.
    I got a little further and it doesn’t get much better. Collusion is the word of the week these days. People are claiming collusion on kaepernick in the nfl. It’s the hot phrase these days.

    But you’re absolutely right. Teams finally offering smarter contracts doesn’t mean they are colluding. JD martinez has been between 2-3 wins the last 3 years by baseball reference WAR. The last calculation I saw estimated 1 win being worth between $7-8 mill in the open market. So $20 mill per year for Martinez isn’t unreasonable. Same thing for hosmer. His WAR by season has been all over the map. He’s had good and bad seasons. So offering him $21 mill per year for 7 years (allegedly the offer he’s received) hardly seems unfair.

    It would be a different story if none of these guys were receiving offers. But, at least allegedly, it seems like at least most of the top guys have gotten relatively decent offers. We probably aren’t even having this discussion of hosmer and martinez would accept the seemingly reasonable deals the allegedly have been offered.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I got a little further and it doesn’t get much better. Collusion is the word of the week these days. People are claiming collusion on kaepernick in the nfl. It’s the hot phrase these days.

    But you’re absolutely right. Teams finally offering smarter contracts doesn’t mean they are colluding. JD martinez has been between 2-3 wins the last 3 years by baseball reference WAR. The last calculation I saw estimated 1 win being worth between $7-8 mill in the open market. So $20 mill per year for Martinez isn’t unreasonable. Same thing for hosmer. His WAR by season has been all over the map. He’s had good and bad seasons. So offering him $21 mill per year for 7 years (allegedly the offer he’s received) hardly seems unfair.

    It would be a different story if none of these guys were receiving offers. But, at least allegedly, it seems like at least most of the top guys have gotten relatively decent offers. We probably aren’t even having this discussion of hosmer and martinez would accept the seemingly reasonable deals the allegedly have been offered.
    Guys can have collusion, and guys can still receive offers. There was collusion for 3 straight years in the 80's, and players still signed contracts, guys like Andre Dawson going to the cubs for like 1 million.

  12. #12
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    But the reported offers are far from 1 yr $1 mill contracts. Do you not think 7/$147 is fair for hosmer? Or is 5/$100 or so a bad deal for Martinez?

  13. #13
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    The truth is baseball can spend as little as it wants. ( besides the obvious minimum wage x roster spot )
    There is nothing forcing them to spend at all. The players are at the owners mercy.
    If the owners want to wait another year to spend the players have to wait.
    Last edited by mariner4life; 01-18-2018 at 10:44 AM.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by mariner4life View Post
    The truth is baseball can spend as little as it wants. ( besides the obvious minimum wage x roster spot )
    There is nothing forcing them to spend at all. The players are at the owners mercy.
    If the owners want to wait another year to spend the players have to wait.
    As with any business

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    But the reported offers are far from 1 yr $1 mill contracts. Do you not think 7/$147 is fair for hosmer? Or is 5/$100 or so a bad deal for Martinez?
    I agree with you 100% on this. I think a lot of teams are looking at the FA Market and just saying, "it isn't that great this year."
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