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View Poll Results: Where does Klay rank among the best players in the league?

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    11 37.93%
  • 21-25

    8 27.59%
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  1. #16
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    tough to gauge really good players on loaded teams. Klay, as a top option, asked to lead a team? Meh, I would put Harden, and Butler well ahead of him.

    A guy like Klay, we just don't know how good he is, until he is forced to face teams planning around him. He is basically the guy other teams just try and contest shots, and let him have his shots. Better than giving them to the other 2 perimeter beasts GS has.

    He is clearly in the 2nd tier of SG's, but I just don't know exactly where I would rate him.

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye15 View Post
    tough to gauge really good players on loaded teams. Klay, as a top option, asked to lead a team? Meh, I would put Harden, and Butler well ahead of him.

    A guy like Klay, we just don't know how good he is, until he is forced to face teams planning around him. He is basically the guy other teams just try and contest shots, and let him have his shots. Better than giving them to the other 2 perimeter beasts GS has.

    He is clearly in the 2nd tier of SG's, but I just don't know exactly where I would rate him.
    I think when they take curry out and Klay gets more defensive attention than Durant, it's telling.

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  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by tredigs View Post
    Klay was overrated until he became a beast of an iso defender in the playoffs. Now he can go no wrong in my book. He knows his role and plays it to perfection. Zero ego. If you're comparing his #'s to other #1 options it will paint a certain picture, but he's the perfect chess piece.
    Not sure he wasn't ever underrated, but the rest I agree with.


    Anyway, smh MBT, I was hoping you wouldn't pursue this but here we are. Fortunately I spent a few hours reading through similar threads on Reddit and have found plenty of theories and explanations for why his defense doesnt reflect in advanced metrics. I'll post links and quotes later when I have time. I see the gloves are off though MBT and now warriors fans have the green light to rip apart Houston's players.

    Sent from my Note 8 using Tapatalk

  4. #19
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    Part II: Playoffs, Defense and Value to the Warriors

    4. Klay shrinks in the posteason
    This is another relatively easy point to make, as the numbers again make the case for me. Take a look at those numbers I posted for Klay from the past four seasons and compare them to his postseason numbers for the last four years:

    13-14: 16.4 points, 3.6 assists, 3.4 rebounds on 40.8, 36.4, 79.2 percentages
    14-15: 18.6 points, 2.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds on 44.6/39/80 percentages
    15-16: 24.3 points, 2.3 assists, 3.7 rebounds on 44.4/42.4/85.4 percentages
    16-17: 15 points, 2.1 assists, 3.9 rebounds on 39.7/38.7/78.8 percentages

    And here's those postseasons in advanced metrics:

    13-14: 12.0 PER, 53 TS%, .045 WS/48, 0.6 BPM
    14-15: 14.8 PER, 55.3 TS%, .118 WS/48, 1.5 BPM
    15-16: 19.5 PER, 58.8 TS%, .143 WS/48, 2.8 BPM
    16-17: 9.3 PER, 50.7 TS%, .049 WS/48, -1.5 BPM


    So basically he's had one really good postseason, one mediocre postseason and two just truly abysmal postseasons. Let's dig a little deeper, though, and look at his Finals production:

    14-15: 15.8 points, 1.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds on 40.9/30/91.7 shooting percentages
    15-16: 19.6 points, 1.9 assists, 3.0 rebounds on 42.7/35/78.6 shooting percentages
    16-17: 16.4 points, 2.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds on 42.9/42.5/71.4 shooting percentages


    That's not great. Even in 2015-16, when Klay had the best playoff performance of his career, his numbers were pretty pedestrian compared to his regular season production. And while you can usually give a guy some leeway in the postseason, when defense is much tougher and the vast majority of players see their production drop a bit from the regular season, Klay's numbers (particularly his advanced metrics) go from All-Star level of production in the regular season to pretty much the league average or worse across the board.

    5. Overrated defense?
    So this is a little tougher argument to make, because there aren't really any good, easy-to-obtain defensive statistics that don't take into account factors other than a player's individual defensive performance. But if we use those statistics that are available to us, it doesn't exactly paint the picture of Klay as some elite defender as some might have you believe.

    Let's compare Klay's career advanced defensive metrics versus guys we know to be elite perimeter defenders:
    Klay: 0.9 SPG, 107 Defensive Rating, -1.5 DBPM
    Iggy: 1.6 SPG, 105 Defensive Rating, 1.6 DBPM
    Kawhi: 1.8 SPG, 99 Defensive Rating, 2.6 DBPM
    Allen: 1.4 SPG, 102 Defensive Rating, 2.1 DBPM
    Lebron: 1.7 SPG, 103 Defensive Rating, 1.9 DBPM
    Paul: 2.3 SPG, 104 Defensive Rating, 0.7 DBPM
    Butler: 1.5 SPG, 105 Defensive Rating, 1.0 DBPM
    Harden: 1.5 SPG, 106 Defensive Rating, 0.1 DBPM

    Since defensive win shares are a cumulative stat, let's just look at each guy's peak DWS in a season:
    Klay: 3.2
    Iggy: 4.4
    Kawhi: 5.5
    Allen: 4.1
    Lebron: 6.5
    Paul: 5.0
    Butler: 4.6
    Harden: 4.2

    You'll notice I threw Harden in there at the end as a comparison for a guy who is regularly considered to be a below average defender. And I recognize that steals are hardly a good stat to prove a player's defensive value. Frankly none of these numbers are great barometers, but when you stack these guys up to each other, clearly Klay stands out as the one who doesn't belong.

    Klay has zero All-Defensive teams, his DBPM is negative nearly every season and his DRPM this season (-0.17) is ranked 271st in the league. My eyes tell me he's a solid defender, but I also think playing for a team with multiple elite defenders has really propped him up as something he's not: a top 10 perimeter defender in the league. Hell, at best, he's maybe the third or fourth best perimeter defender on his own team, which brings me to my last point...

    6. Klay is the least valuable of the Warriors' core four by a mile
    So let's look at Klay's numbers this season within the context of his own team. Let's see how he ranks among his own teammates in key statistical areas. First, the positives:

    MPG: 2nd (first in total minutes by a ton)
    PPG: 3rd
    3P%: 2nd (and Casspi barely plays)
    3PA: 3rd
    OWS: 3rd
    OBPM: 3rd

    So, not a lot of surprises there. But he's still a valuable scorer and probably the team's best 3-point shooter this season when you factor in percentage and volume. But clearly he provides value to the team. How much value, though? Let's take a look at some of the negatives, and I'll cut out anyone who doesn't average at least 13 minutes per game to really look at the key contributors to the team:

    2P%: 12th (dead last)
    TS%: 7th
    APG: 5th
    AST%: 9th
    RPG: 6th
    TRB%: 9th
    SPG: 6th
    STL%: 12th (dead last)
    DWS: 4th
    WS/48: 8th
    DBPM: 11th (only better than Young)
    BPM: 9th
    VORP: 6th

    If you're the Warriors front office, and you're having the conversation of "Which core guy is most expendable?," don't they have to look at his total value compared to Durant, Curry and Green and immediately point to Thompson? Yes, his 3-point shooting and floor spacing is extremely valuable to the team, but considering how little he contributes to other areas, there are a dozen or more guys in the league who could replace him, shoot 38+ percent from the 3-point line and probably give the Warriors 70-80 percent of what Thompson provides every night at half the cost.

    His defensive value is overrated, and he doesn't create for others, crash the glass or force a lot of turnovers. Compared to someone like Green, who isn't nearly the scorer that Thompson is, but is such a jack of all trades and a beastly defensive presence, Thompson seems significantly less important by comparison.

    Conclusion
    So this exercise wasn't meant to infuriate Warriors fans or even to completely bash Thompson as a player. As I said at the start, I think he's a damn good basketball player, and someone I would love to have on my team. But he's basically a 3 and D guy who provides a lot more "3" than "D." And I expect a lot of people to say "But he sacrifices for the betterment of the team, and his numbers would be significantly better playing elsewhere!" But would they?

    He'd score more, and simply by having the ball in his hands more often and being more of a focal point offensively, I think he'd get a few more assists and a few more free throw attempts. But the guy isn't suddenly going to be substantially more aggressive driving to the basket and get 6-8 free throws a night. And with the defense keyed in on him and no elite go-to playmaker to create for him, he'd have to take a lot more contested jumpers and create a lot more shots for himself. It's possible that he's capable of being that guy, but we've never seen it, and that's a key reason why I just can't understand people rating him as highly as they do. Even without Durant in Golden State, Thompson wasn't a 25+ PPG guy.

    Bottom line, Thompson is a volume scorer and a phenomenal jump shooter who is competent on defense and will occasionally bust out for 30 or 40 every once in a while. But to rank him above superior players who are required to do far more, produce at a far higher level and matter so much more to their team's success is asinine. Top 20-25? I'll buy it. Top 10? Not even close.
    Last edited by mightybosstone; 01-13-2018 at 12:39 PM.

    Quote Originally Posted by Giannis94 View Post
    Bucks vs raptors in the ECF. Mark my words.

  5. #20
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    Klay didn't make any 3's when rookie Brown guarded him last night.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by lol, please View Post
    Not sure he wasn't ever underrated, but the rest I agree with.

    Anyway, smh MBT, I was hoping you wouldn't pursue this but here we are. Fortunately I spent a few hours reading through similar threads on Reddit and have found plenty of theories and explanations for why his defense doesnt reflect in advanced metrics. I'll post links and quotes later when I have time. I see the gloves are off though MBT and now warriors fans have the green light to rip apart Houston's players.

    Sent from my Note 8 using Tapatalk
    You're missing the point here, lol. I'm not trying to start some sort of Warriors fans vs. Rockets fans war on PSD. I'm trying to take an objective look at someone I think just gets too much credit for who he is as a player. If you have counter points, I'd love to read them. That's what this is supposed to be: a legitimate conversation and debate about where Klay is as a player and why he gets overrated or underrated by fans and analysts.

    You're welcome to start similar threads about Rockets players if you'd like, and I'd enjoy debating with you about them. But if you take this as some sort of gauntlet that's been thrown down, then you're not getting the spirit of this at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Giannis94 View Post
    Bucks vs raptors in the ECF. Mark my words.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by tredigs View Post
    Klay was overrated until he became a beast of an iso defender in the playoffs. Now he can go no wrong in my book. He knows his role and plays it to perfection. Zero ego. If you're comparing his #'s to other #1 options it will paint a certain picture, but he's the perfect chess piece.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scoots View Post
    I ranked Klay below Butler in that other thread too. I think Klay is ranked where he is more because of the weakness of the position in the NBA right now than anything else.

    Klay's man defense is elite, his team defense is just okay. He's a pure shooter but he's not what I'd call a scorer in that he doesn't really score in a lot of different ways or create for himself or others.

    He's grown as a ball handler and passer in the last few years but it's not really reflected much in his stats, but he's always been kind of less than he should be in those areas and in rebounding.

    I think if he was on a team that needed more of him he'd grow to fill those roles better but on THIS team he's maximizing the main skills they want him to use.

    A BIG thing about Klay that hasn't been mentioned is his mentality ... how many multi-time all-stars would be just fine being the 4th man on a team? Klay is steady and easy as a teammate ... he does what the coach asks, he doesn't ever cause friction or trouble and he works hard at whatever the coach tells him to do. I think that comes from his Dad being a hyper-critical guy and Klay's response was to be hard on himself and work hard while just letting the rest of it just wash over him. That's not something that shows up in any stats and is hard to evaluate but it's still a critical aspect of him as a member of a team.
    This is an important point I'd like to touch on here, because I think it's something that both proves his value to the Warriors and holds him back as an individual player. He's an excellent No. 2 or No. 3 offensively. He thrives in that role, and he plays it as well as probably anybody in the league. And he never seems to ask for anything more or pout because he's not getting touches. That's a great mentality to have... as a role player.

    But that's also what separates him from No. 1 options in the league. Those guys want the ball in big moments and they need to be selfish as times, because it's just sort of built into their DNA. Klay needs more of that to really improve as a player, and until he leaves Golden State or that team loses other core players, I'm not sure he'll ever develop that instinct.

    Quote Originally Posted by Giannis94 View Post
    Bucks vs raptors in the ECF. Mark my words.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by MILLERHIGHLIFE View Post
    Klay didn't make any 3's when rookie Brown guarded him last night.
    Everyone has off shooting nights, even the greatest shooters. I'm sure it was more Klay than it was the defender.
    RIP lol, please!

    8/1/2011 - 01/28/2018

    You may not be with us anymore but your name, legacy, and what you stood for will last forever!


  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by mightybosstone View Post
    But that's also what separates him from No. 1 options in the league. Those guys want the ball in big moments and they need to be selfish as times, because it's just sort of built into their DNA. Klay needs more of that to really improve as a player, and until he leaves Golden State or that team loses other core players, I'm not sure he'll ever develop that instinct.
    I'm not sure. I remember that OKC playoff game and the guy just took over and snatched the game away from OKC, that was one of if not the critical moments of the series. I don't know if that counts as in his DNA.

  10. #25
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    I think his shooting is slightly overrated, but not given enough credit on defense. he's not going to carry a team, but he's a great 2nd/3rd best player in the lineup, and spreads the floor extremely well for obvious reasons.

  11. #26
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    Which of these guys is Klay better than:

    LeBron
    KD
    Curry
    Harden
    Kawhi
    Butler
    Westbrook
    CP3
    AD
    Cousins
    Wall
    IT
    Hayward
    Griffin
    Green
    PG
    Lillard
    Embiid
    Giannis
    Kyrie
    Drummond
    Whiteside
    Horford
    Derozan
    Lowry
    Beal
    CJ
    Oladipo
    Simmons
    Kristaps
    Aldridge
    Towns
    Jokic
    Gasol
    Conley

    I don't think all that guys are better but I would say majority are better or right there. Young guys that I think will pass him in the next 2 years at most:

    Mitchell (we may have finally found the next Wade)
    Jaylen Brown
    Tatum
    Ingram
    Wiggins
    Lauri (dark horse)

    After looking at everyone I would say with confidence he's in the 25-30 range but wouldn't be made at someone who has him in the 20-25 range. Any higher than that then I disagree.
    RIP lol, please!

    8/1/2011 - 01/28/2018

    You may not be with us anymore but your name, legacy, and what you stood for will last forever!


  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heediot View Post
    I'm not sure. I remember that OKC playoff game and the guy just took over and snatched the game away from OKC, that was one of if not the critical moments of the series. I don't know if that counts as in his DNA.
    Guys can have great performances in a big moment or two, but there's a big difference between stepping up once in a blue moon and being the best guy on the floor night in and night out for an entire season plus the playoffs.

    Quote Originally Posted by Giannis94 View Post
    Bucks vs raptors in the ECF. Mark my words.

  13. #28
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    A lesser Kevin Martin offensively with Bruce Bowen like on ball defense then. Could win 48 games on a team built around him...

  14. #29
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    People really have him as a top 10-12 player?? If so then yes overrated

    The comparisons in the op were bad, not just cuz stats arguments are inherently stupid, but also cuz all those other guys have the ball in their hands much more often. Klay plays a certain role and plays it at an elite level. Hes perfect for the warriors

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by mightybosstone View Post
    This is an important point I'd like to touch on here, because I think it's something that both proves his value to the Warriors and holds him back as an individual player. He's an excellent No. 2 or No. 3 offensively. He thrives in that role, and he plays it as well as probably anybody in the league. And he never seems to ask for anything more or pout because he's not getting touches. That's a great mentality to have... as a role player.

    But that's also what separates him from No. 1 options in the league. Those guys want the ball in big moments and they need to be selfish as times, because it's just sort of built into their DNA. Klay needs more of that to really improve as a player, and until he leaves Golden State or that team loses other core players, I'm not sure he'll ever develop that instinct.
    Eh, I think he's fine with his role dude. He's an integral piece to maybe the best team in NBA history and is getting a ton of shots + going to the Finals every season. He doesn't shy away from a thing and owns that role.

    Why would he want to leave that to be the Kings #1 option?
    Last edited by tredigs; 01-13-2018 at 02:22 PM.

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