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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    11,398

    Which player will regress the most?

    Saw a lot of players have career or great years in 2017. Some even played way over their heads and are likely to regress.

    Which player do you think comes back to life in 2018?

    My guess would be Tommy Pham. He'll be a quality player for the Cards but I can't see him putting up those ridiculous numbers he had in 2017 again this year.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2007
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    37,232
    Eric Thames comes to mind but he was already regressing super hard after his red hot start to 2017.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2007
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    37,232
    Zack Cozart

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
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    Aaron Judge, Hosmer (especially if he goes to SD), Justin Turner, Avisail Garcia, Chris Taylor, Justin Smoak, Cody Bellinger.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
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    52,411
    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    Eric Thames comes to mind but he was already regressing super hard after his red hot start to 2017.
    Thames def had a hot start that he couldn't sustain

    After May 1 he hit .226/.335/.455

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lincecum4CY View Post
    Saw a lot of players have career or great years in 2017. Some even played way over their heads and are likely to regress.

    Which player do you think comes back to life in 2018?

    My guess would be Tommy Pham. He'll be a quality player for the Cards but I can't see him putting up those ridiculous numbers he had in 2017 again this year.
    From the Cardinals, I'd say Paul DeJong is our regression candidate. A lot of holes in that swing to live off of popping a few homers.

    I think Tommy Pham is pretty legit though. His issue is the degenerating eye, which we have no idea how long it'll last.

    Pham has always posted beastly numbers with great athleticism. He's just always dealt with injury issues. He's finally playing healthy.

    In his 933 career AAA PA - .301/.376/.464 - and I'd say that's about the type of MLB player he should also be. Of course, that would mean he regressed some. But that should be expected from any player with a .368 BABIP.

    I think moderate regressions from Ozuna and Jose Martinez from the Cardinals should also be expected.


    Other players around the league:

    Avisail Garcia and Domingo Santana stand out. Hosmer especially.

    Pitchers:
    Lance Lynn is hard to tell because of the TJ, and if that was just rust, but he regressed in all FIP categories, while maintaing his ERA.

    Jose Urena, Ervin Santana, Jake Arrieta continues to give up more and more home runs, Jason Vargas is obvious, and Julio Teheran didn't look very good.


    Also, Richard Bleier recorded the second sub 2 ERA with less than 4 K/9 (min 50 innings), since 1992 (Hasegawa in 03, who posted a 5.16 ERA in 04)

  7. #7
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    Zack Cozart
    Cosart going from Cincy to LAA isn't going to help him at all, but he had a .909 OPS since May 1, following the hot start.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    Bloomington IL
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    9,695
    Stanton will come back down to earth... probably only mash 55 homers or so

  9. #9
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    Aug 2006
    Posts
    51,890
    For the Cubs? Ian Happ.
    We're From Philadelphia


    We. Fight.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    May 2007
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    37,232
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Cosart going from Cincy to LAA isn't going to help him at all, but he had a .909 OPS since May 1, following the hot start.
    Oh, I know he had a killer season overall. It's just that it came out of nowhere, in a contract year, and in a hitters park. He could surely be a late bloomer but chances are probably higher that he comes back down to earth in '18.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  11. #11
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    Sep 2010
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    East of the Sun, West of the Moon
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    Aaron Judge.

  12. #12
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    Sep 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I think Tommy Pham is pretty legit though. His issue is the degenerating eye, which we have no idea how long it'll last.
    I have the same condition, keratoconus. He says he is legally blind in one eye. I am legally blind in both and my vision can only be corrected to 20/40 with some distortion remaining.

    Pham fortunately underwent a procedure to stabilize his corneas -- so it will not likely get worse, but it could, and there have been some advances in scleral lens technologies which get people back to 20/20.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
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    24,960
    Judge and Bellinger are the two that come to mind for me. I think both will still have very good seasons, but it'll be interesting to see how they do in year 2. Both likely regress a little.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  14. #14
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    I have the same condition, keratoconus. He says he is legally blind in one eye. I am legally blind in both and my vision can only be corrected to 20/40 with some distortion remaining.

    Pham fortunately underwent a procedure to stabilize his corneas -- so it will not likely get worse, but it could, and there have been some advances in scleral lens technologies which get people back to 20/20.
    Thanks for that insight, I thought it was a ticking time bomb for him.

    Sorry you deal with that man.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    Bloomington IL
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Thanks for that insight, I thought it was a ticking time bomb for him.

    Sorry you deal with that man.
    same here... good to know

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