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  1. #1
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    Harper vs Machado 2018 FA class

    Which player should get the biggest FA deal? Both are 25 years old

    Last 3 years:

    Machado: 16.3 WAR, 105 HR (.286, .294, .259 AVG)

    Harper: 17.8 WAR, 95 HR (.330, .243, .319 AVG)

    Each player has pros/cons. Machado playing SS should really help his value and he’s been healthy for three straight years. He lacks the OBP compared to Harper. But he also plays really good defense.

    Which player SHOULD get more money?

  2. #2
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    Harper

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Harper
    Eh if he can come in and show he can play SS at a high level I think he would be more valuable than Harper.


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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brewersfan255 View Post
    Eh if he can come in and show he can play SS at a high level I think he would be more valuable than Harper.


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    His bat profiles really nicely for a long term contract.

    Machado needs his athleticism more. Harper could mash even if he was a DH.

    When two players are equal in values, and you want to project...take the better hitter.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    His bat profiles really nicely for a long term contract.

    Machado needs his athleticism more. Harper could mash even if he was a DH.

    When two players are equal in values, and you want to project...take the better hitter.
    What type of contract do you think both should get?


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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    His bat profiles really nicely for a long term contract.

    Machado needs his athleticism more. Harper could mash even if he was a DH.

    When two players are equal in values, and you want to project...take the better hitter.
    My thoughts exactly.


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  7. #7
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    Did you really just post their batting averages...

    Harper takes so many walks that even when he hit 240 he still posted a higher OBP than Machado ever has.

    I'm taking Harper all the way. Manny is great but he's more of a free swinger and he also has a reconstructed knee. Not crazy about throwing that guy a 10 year deal.
    Last edited by WOwolfOL; 12-30-2017 at 04:27 PM.

  8. #8
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    I don't think either player will be worth the deal they sign. While there is valid concern around Machado's reconstructed knee, he hasn't had any issues since that surgery happened. Meanwhile, Harper's missed more time with a wider variety of injuries and has only put together one true "elite" season. Manny has three 6-plus WAR seasons, while Harper has one season over 5.0 wins, which was his stellar 2015 campaign at 9.5.

    If both require a $400 million commitment, let me extend 2 of my players and bring in 2-3 others for that same cost of just one player. FA spending is getting absurd.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brewersfan255 View Post
    What type of contract do you think both should get?


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    hard to tell. Teams could heavily backload and offer opt-outs. Teams could give lifetime contracts. I imagine they'll be looking for 10-13 year contracts with some abilities to opt-out. Probably 34-40M per year range.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThomasTomasz View Post
    I don't think either player will be worth the deal they sign. While there is valid concern around Machado's reconstructed knee, he hasn't had any issues since that surgery happened. Meanwhile, Harper's missed more time with a wider variety of injuries and has only put together one true "elite" season. Manny has three 6-plus WAR seasons, while Harper has one season over 5.0 wins, which was his stellar 2015 campaign at 9.5.

    If both require a $400 million commitment, let me extend 2 of my players and bring in 2-3 others for that same cost of just one player. FA spending is getting absurd.
    Harper/Machado will likely be worth the contract they sign in 2018 and the reason is opt-outs and that you can game the Luxury Tax a little. I expect both will be paid in the 34-40m range for the first few years, but will likely have multiple opt-out points and a contract that's backloaded in years to take the AAV down (Lux Tax calculates from AAV, not yearly salary).

    Wins on the FA market are around $8m or so from what I last checked. Both are easy 5 win players. Even at $40m, while they may not provide a ton of surplus value, they'll be worth their deal. For teams who can afford it, it's anything but ridiculous. A single 5 win player = more than two 2-3 win players when you take into account roster size and limited number of players making consistent contributions in the lineup.

    I would expect both Harper and Machado to opt out within 4 years.
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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Harper/Machado will likely be worth the contract they sign in 2018 and the reason is opt-outs and that you can game the Luxury Tax a little. I expect both will be paid in the 34-40m range for the first few years, but will likely have multiple opt-out points and a contract that's backloaded in years to take the AAV down (Lux Tax calculates from AAV, not yearly salary).

    Wins on the FA market are around $8m or so from what I last checked. Both are easy 5 win players. Even at $40m, while they may not provide a ton of surplus value, they'll be worth their deal. For teams who can afford it, it's anything but ridiculous. A single 5 win player = more than two 2-3 win players when you take into account roster size and limited number of players making consistent contributions in the lineup.

    I would expect both Harper and Machado to opt out within 4 years.
    This really depends on the market and who’s signing them. A smaller market team really couldn’t afford to tie up 40% of their payroll on one player no matter how good they are.


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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brewersfan255 View Post
    This really depends on the market and who’s signing them. A smaller market team really couldn’t afford to tie up 40% of their payroll on one player no matter how good they are.


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    Well, that doesn't need to be said. Of course a team like the Marlins couldn't afford Harper or Machado. But they couldn't likely add two $15m players, either, on the market.

    The teams involved in Harper and Machado are the teams the ability to do that. That's how free agency works. In the end, it doesn't change what a contract is worth on the free market. Teams, on average, pay a certain amount for a win. Whether certain teams sit out, it doesn't change that.
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  13. #13
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    Harper would be the smarter investment IMO. I dont know for some reason i think Machado will be a bust once he gets his big contract.


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  14. #14
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    I think Harper gets the better deal but both will clear 300 million and might get close to 400 but if money doesn't matter I take Harper.
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  15. #15
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    If Machado has another lackluster season I have a hard time seeing him topping 300 million. Something along the lines of 250 would be more realistic.

    If he bounces back then 300 million is obtainable.

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