
Originally Posted by
Zspooner
I think the Gruden takes are interesting. Supposedly he got good with the Glazers (Bucs owners) and he might come back as HC if they can Koetter. It's a really interesting scenario considering the guy has been connected to just about every single open HC position since he's been on ESPN -- probably just a really good agent on his end. Anyway, I think going down the Gruden road is pretty dangerous. Guy hasn't coached in a decade and had 10 wins or more just once since the super bowl win on the Bucs. I think meddling with them older/retired coaches is just a wild play. It COULD work, sure, but to think any of those dudes would absolutely re-create previous success is kinda iffy to me. Outside of the SB win, I don't know how Gruden really is that much different than Caldwell. He calls plays, I think? But even that is an overrated ability. There's only a few coaches in the past quarter century that've maintained HC play calling on either side of the ball for more than a few years.
If you're going to hire away a candidate, I just hope you get your first option because I don't think there's a lot out there. If you want a Sean McVay type, you pretty much have to go for the Jets OC, who I don't know the name of but has made their talent-less offense into a pretty competent bunch. After that? McDaniels or Patricia is the obvious connection. Maybe you hope for a good HC to get fired due to a meh run? Only guy I can see that happening to is John Harbaugh, which I'd like to have, but if he didn't get fired last year I doubt it happens this year. Do ya'll think Bill O'Brien is good? He might be on his way out. I think the Lions talked to him in the past (also a former Patriot).
Just a rough position. It's why I think Caldwell should just stay here until the talent materializes. Will we win a playoff game with him? I don't know, i mean we got robbed of one, but the team did play like **** in the 2nd half and we've had 2nd half issues with Caldwell as long as he's been here (lack of strategy or unwillingness to change the strategy). I just am not on the boat with the talent on the roster. I don't think there's a legitimate hire that turns us from a possible 9-7/10-6 team that's a 1 and done to a 12-4 type team that can make a run. I just don't think that dude exists based on the talent we have.
When Caldwell got here, the core was Stafford-Calvin-Suh. Then after they left it was Stafford-Ansah-Slay. Now it's just Stafford-Slay-Quin. Quin obviously is on the wrong side of 30 and probably won't be this good for all that much longer. We need a D Line BAD. I think if we subbed out our D line for just a competent one, say, like the Falcons maybe? I think we'd be the division leader. Our roster has simply gotten worse, and while Quinn has done okay with the reserves (ST is really good and our back ups have been solid until injuries forced them into starters), but we need to gun for legitimate starting talent this offseason at multiple positions. They have the money + draft capital, and they have to hit.
Another reason I think it's dangerous to ditch Caldwell right now is because there exists a legitimate chance that our coaching situation gets worse. Let's all recognize that you can count the amount of game changer coaches (positive game changing coaches, that is) on a hand. There's Belichick, Carroll, Reid, Harbaugh and Payton who have sustained success at making their teams better. All but Belichick/Carroll (at least in his current stint), have gone through rough patches. Reid has been fired before, Harbaugh was almost fired last year, and until the Saints GM finally added defensive talent, it looked like Sean Payton might be on the verge of Jeff Fisher irrelevance until they tore it down or he went elsewhere. There are some new guys in recent years that look to be okay (Zimmer/McVay/Pederson), but Zimmer is the only one with more than a couple years of legitimate success, and even then he has as many playoff wins as Caldwell since they've both been hired to their respective spots. Pretty much, what I'm getting at is that we're in the HCing middle class. Is Caldwell the worst? No, he's not Gus Bradley, Hue Jackson or Dirk Koetter. Is he Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll, again, no. But is he decent? Yeah, and we're a decent team with or without him. If we fail and pick the wrong coach, we'll waste Slay/Stafford and whoever else, like Schwartz wasted Suh/Calvin. I think it is important to have the right roster in place before firing/hiring the head coach.
Considering we've been on the topic of Gruden a good bit -- look at the Bucs post-Gruden. He got fired after 2 seasons of 9-7. He pretty much put up Caldwell's record with a similar team talent-wise (except that Bucs team was aging rather than young). They've been through 3 coaches since then, and since 2009 (first year post-gruden), they've had 4 sub 5 win seasons and may be on their way to a fifth. They've made the playoffs zero times, had double digit wins once (10 wins), and as a total been over .500 just twice since his firing.
Keeping on with Gruden, think about how he got the Bucs job. The Bucs had a roster in place that they thought should contend (turned out it had a couple HOFers on it, we don't have any so this isn't similar in the slightest, but for the future let's consider this...). Dungy didn't cut it for them. He actually had an impressive run, but they decided they needed the next step to win it all (we need much more than one next step). After losing 2 consecutive wild card games, Gruden steps in and gets them to the promise land. Ideally, that's the scenario where Caldwell gets fired/replaced. I don't think we're there yet. However, I think a bad hire can ruin us like they have the Colts (RIP Andrew Luck).