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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Posts
    17,634

    2018 Red Sox Projections

    Bill James' 2018 projections for the current Red Sox:

    Sandy Leon: .229 BA, 27 R, 5 HR, 29 RBI, .649 OPS
    Skinny: Not encouraging. But Leon has made a career out of defying projections. That, and playing outstanding defense.

    Christian Vazquez: .268 BA, 47 R, 6 HR, 38 RBI, .701 OPS
    Skinny: If his second half in 2017 was to be believed, Vazquez isnít done developing and is capable of putting up better numbers than shown here. Under a new manager, will he be an everyday player?

    Hanley Ramirez: : .268 BA, 62 R, 20 HR, 69 RBI, .802 OPS
    Skinny: Probably close to his ceiling, assuming the all-or-nothing slugger rebounds from shoulder surgery and regains bat speed in 2018.

    Dustin Pedroia: .293 BA, 65 R, 9 HR, 58 RBI, .774 OPS
    Skinny: James also projects 482 at-bats. The Red Sox should name a road after Pedroia if, coming off knee surgery, heís able to play that well, that often.

    Xander Bogaerts: .277 BA, 95 R, 14 HR, 76 RBI, .753 OPS
    Skinny: Itís almost a mirror image of his injury-plagued 2017 season. A repeat performance like this would surely be considered a huge disappointment by most of the Fenway regulars.

    Rafael Devers: .270 BA, 82 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, .824 OPS
    Skinny: Nothing like prospect hype. Actually, these are basically Deversí rookie year numbers that are expanded for 140-plus games in 2018.

    Andrew Benintendi: .281 BA, 79 R, 20 HR, 88 RBI, .825 OPS
    Skinny: Itís a bet that Benintendi wonít become the home-run-hitting superstar that others with the Red Sox hope he can be. Not in 2018, at least.

    Mookie Betts: .301 BA, 101 R, 26 HR, 108 RBI, .882 OPS
    Skinny: Nothing flashy here, but thatís MVP-caliber production when baserunning and defense are added to the mix.

    Jackie Bradely, Jr: .251 BA, 71 R, 17 HR, 65 RBI, .753 OPS.
    Skinny: In this projection, either Bradley never catches his annual hot streak, or he does, but itís surrounded by five truly horrible months.

    Source: Boston Herald

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Posts
    17,634
    The infielders' projections demonstrate the challenge to James' projections. I doubt that Pedroia's numbers reflect his surgery, Bogaerts' as a healthy player, or Devers battling through a long sophomore season. James' system relies on trends which is reasonable, but it has difficulty dealing with the ramp at the beginning of a career and the decline at the end. It's also difficult to quantify the impact of injuries.

    Take it all with a grain of salt. Or post your own.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    4,788
    Well the Sox finished last in home runs hit by a team in 17. Looks like 18 could be no better.
    "Just because the path is well beaten. That doesn't mean it's the right way to go"

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    A place called Paradise
    Posts
    15,040
    No way Hanley hits like that and only 20 HRS, if he rebounds I'm willing to bet at least 25 HR.

    I'd knock Devers down to 27/28 HRs, Bentintendi at 22 HRs, JBJ aroun 20 and Bogaerts around 18
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Stonington CT
    Posts
    4,724
    I think Xander has a huge bounce back year. I think he finally hits 25 HRs

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