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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Greenville, SC

    2018 Red Sox Projections

    Bill James' 2018 projections for the current Red Sox:

    Sandy Leon: .229 BA, 27 R, 5 HR, 29 RBI, .649 OPS
    Skinny: Not encouraging. But Leon has made a career out of defying projections. That, and playing outstanding defense.

    Christian Vazquez: .268 BA, 47 R, 6 HR, 38 RBI, .701 OPS
    Skinny: If his second half in 2017 was to be believed, Vazquez isnít done developing and is capable of putting up better numbers than shown here. Under a new manager, will he be an everyday player?

    Hanley Ramirez: : .268 BA, 62 R, 20 HR, 69 RBI, .802 OPS
    Skinny: Probably close to his ceiling, assuming the all-or-nothing slugger rebounds from shoulder surgery and regains bat speed in 2018.

    Dustin Pedroia: .293 BA, 65 R, 9 HR, 58 RBI, .774 OPS
    Skinny: James also projects 482 at-bats. The Red Sox should name a road after Pedroia if, coming off knee surgery, heís able to play that well, that often.

    Xander Bogaerts: .277 BA, 95 R, 14 HR, 76 RBI, .753 OPS
    Skinny: Itís almost a mirror image of his injury-plagued 2017 season. A repeat performance like this would surely be considered a huge disappointment by most of the Fenway regulars.

    Rafael Devers: .270 BA, 82 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, .824 OPS
    Skinny: Nothing like prospect hype. Actually, these are basically Deversí rookie year numbers that are expanded for 140-plus games in 2018.

    Andrew Benintendi: .281 BA, 79 R, 20 HR, 88 RBI, .825 OPS
    Skinny: Itís a bet that Benintendi wonít become the home-run-hitting superstar that others with the Red Sox hope he can be. Not in 2018, at least.

    Mookie Betts: .301 BA, 101 R, 26 HR, 108 RBI, .882 OPS
    Skinny: Nothing flashy here, but thatís MVP-caliber production when baserunning and defense are added to the mix.

    Jackie Bradely, Jr: .251 BA, 71 R, 17 HR, 65 RBI, .753 OPS.
    Skinny: In this projection, either Bradley never catches his annual hot streak, or he does, but itís surrounded by five truly horrible months.

    Source: Boston Herald

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Greenville, SC
    The infielders' projections demonstrate the challenge to James' projections. I doubt that Pedroia's numbers reflect his surgery, Bogaerts' as a healthy player, or Devers battling through a long sophomore season. James' system relies on trends which is reasonable, but it has difficulty dealing with the ramp at the beginning of a career and the decline at the end. It's also difficult to quantify the impact of injuries.

    Take it all with a grain of salt. Or post your own.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Well the Sox finished last in home runs hit by a team in 17. Looks like 18 could be no better.
    "Just because the path is well beaten. That doesn't mean it's the right way to go"

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    A place called Paradise
    No way Hanley hits like that and only 20 HRS, if he rebounds I'm willing to bet at least 25 HR.

    I'd knock Devers down to 27/28 HRs, Bentintendi at 22 HRs, JBJ aroun 20 and Bogaerts around 18
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Stonington CT
    I think Xander has a huge bounce back year. I think he finally hits 25 HRs

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