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  1. #1
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    Looking at the NBA future

    I got bored and took a look into the past 5 drafts. It seems to me the same teams have been drafting top 10 out the last half decade and with some of the dominant West teams fading as their rosters age, I was curious to see if the NBA landscape is starting to change.

    Here's what I found.

    Of the last top 50 players drafted (top 10 last 5 years)
    14 of the 30 NBA teams have multiple top 10 picks on their rosters

    7 of the 30 NBA teams have 3 or more top 10 picks on their rosters
    (PHI, LAL, BOS, PHO, SAC, ORL, CHA)

    5 of the 30 NBA teams have 4 or more top 10 picks on their rosters
    (PHI, LAL, PHO, SAC, ORL) - These 5 teams hold nearly half the top 50 draft picks of the last 5 years

    Here's your teams with all the top 50 picks/players

    PHI
    Fultz #1
    Simmons #1
    Embiid #3
    Okafor #3
    Stauskas #7

    LAL
    Ball #2
    Ingram #2
    Randle #6
    KCP #7

    BOS
    Tatum #3
    Brown #3
    Smart #6

    PHO
    Jackson #4
    Chriss #7
    Bender #4
    Len #5

    SAC
    Fox #5
    Collins #10
    Hield #6
    WCS - #6

    MIN
    KAT #1
    Wiggins #1

    ORL
    Isaac #6
    Hezonja #5
    Gordon #4

    DEN
    Murray #6
    Mudiay #6

    DAL
    Smith Jr. #9
    Noel #6

    CHA
    Kaminsky - #9
    Vonleh #9
    Zeller #4

    NYK
    Nitkila - #8
    Porzingis - #4

    UTA
    Exum - #5
    Burke #9

    CHI
    Markanaan - #7
    Dunn #5
    Payton #10

    MIL
    Maker #10
    Parker #2

    Others
    TOR – Poeltl #9
    BRK – Russell #2
    DET – Johnson #7
    MIA – Winslow #10
    WAS – Porter Jr. #3
    MEM – McLemore #6
    POR - McCollum - #10
    IND - Oladipo #2

    Also of note I picked a few players who have already flashed potential beyond their draft pick #

    Best picks outside top 10 (superstar/potential to be)
    CHA – Monk #11
    IND – Turner #11
    PHO – Booker #13
    PHI – Saric #12
    DEN – Jokic #41
    MIL – Giannis #15
    ATL – Schroder #17
    UTA – Gobert #27

    Looking at the list I've come up with some teams that have MAJOR potential based solely on their drafting the past 5 years (not taking into account their financials)

    PHI
    BOS
    PHO
    MIL
    MIN - discounted because they got the #1 pick in years with an obvious selection
    ORL

    4 of the best drafting teams of the last 5 years are in the East, not the West. BOS, MIL should be in the playoffs this year and both PHI and ORL have a chance to make it. If these 4 teams make the right moves over the next year or so, they should be power houses in the NBA over the next 5-10 years.

    Out west, beyond GS, the picture is a bit bleaker. MIN looks to be on the rise (if they can ever play defense). LAL has some nice you pieces that need to develop better but are a premier destination with cap space. PHO with Booker and Chriss...Bender maybe...and cap space could find themselves back on top soon. Outside of that, a lot of question marks in the West.

    We may finally be seeing the NBA shift from decades of Western dominance. If only the Eastern teams don't screw it up along the way.
    Last edited by Oakmont_4; 12-01-2017 at 03:48 PM.

    City of Champions

  2. #2
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    Good post but kind of sloppy, many players have been traded and you have some on their traded team and some you have still on their drafted team(Oladipo, Markk etc.)

    Drafting is 1/3 of building a team, so I wouldn’t exactly predict a shift to the East in the future. Obviously if the east is “worse” they will be drafting higher.

    I don’t think Orlando is anywhere near a powerhouse. Philly definitely if things go right. Embiid and Simmons look like 2 studs. Charlotte hasn’t drafted to well either.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by CELTICS4LYFE View Post
    Good post but kind of sloppy, many players have been traded and you have some on their traded team and some you have still on their drafted team(Oladipo, Markk etc.)

    Drafting is 1/3 of building a team, so I wouldn’t exactly predict a shift to the East in the future. Obviously if the east is “worse” they will be drafting higher.

    I don’t think Orlando is anywhere near a powerhouse. Philly definitely if things go right. Embiid and Simmons look like 2 studs. Charlotte hasn’t drafted to well either.
    Good catch, fixed Oladipo and Markk. Many more were traded so admittedly I didn't catch them all, did the best I could in a rather quick post

    Drafting is only a portion of team building, but if you can't get this part right, you're in big trouble. The best teams over the years are the best at drafting, plain and simple.

    Actually, because they East is worse, they HAVEN'T had more top draft picks. Essentially because the West is so deep, that leaves a black hole in the bottom of the conference. The really bad teams don't even try and get kicked around by the deep western conference. Whereas the east, outside of the top 1 or 2 teams, everyone is about equal talent wise. In the East the difference between the #4-8 playoff teams and the next teams 9-12 is extremely minimal. Just look at the teams that have bottom fed the West...SAC, MIN, PHO, NO...Have been some of the most frequent top 10 teams. It does seem to be flipping though.

    I don't think I called ORL a powerhouse. I just think they've done a pretty decent job drafting (comparatively). They haven't done much else right and that's why they are where they are.

    Charlotte has been one of the worst drafting teams even though they've frequented the top 10 over the years. They need change in that organization.

    City of Champions

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oakmont_4 View Post
    I got bored and took a look into the past 5 drafts. It seems to me the same teams have been drafting top 10 out the last half decade and with some of the dominant West teams fading as their rosters age, I was curious to see if the NBA landscape is starting to change.

    Here's what I found.

    Of the last top 50 players drafted (top 10 last 5 years)
    14 of the 30 NBA teams have multiple top 10 picks on their rosters

    7 of the 30 NBA teams have 3 or more top 10 picks on their rosters
    (PHI, LAL, BOS, PHO, SAC, ORL, CHA)

    5 of the 30 NBA teams have 4 or more top 10 picks on their rosters
    (PHI, LAL, PHO, SAC, ORL) - These 5 teams hold nearly half the top 50 draft picks of the last 5 years

    Here's your teams with all the top 50 picks/players

    PHI
    Fultz #1
    Simmons #1
    Embiid #3
    Okafor #3
    Stauskas #7

    LAL
    Ball #2
    Ingram #2
    Randle #6
    KCP #7

    BOS
    Tatum #3
    Brown #3
    Smart #6

    PHO
    Jackson #4
    Chriss #7
    Bender #4
    Len #5

    SAC
    Fox #5
    Collins #10
    Hield #6
    WCS - #6

    MIN
    KAT #1
    Wiggins #1

    ORL
    Isaac #6
    Hezonja #5
    Gordon #4

    DEN
    Murray #6
    Mudiay #6

    DAL
    Smith Jr. #9
    Noel #6

    CHA
    Kaminsky - #9
    Vonleh #9
    Zeller #4

    NYK
    Nitkila - #8
    Porzingis - #4

    UTA
    Exum - #5
    Burke #9

    CHI
    Markanaan - #7
    Dunn #5
    Payton #10

    MIL
    Maker #10
    Parker #2

    Others
    TOR – Poeltl #9
    BRK – Russell #2
    DET – Johnson #7
    MIA – Winslow #10
    WAS – Porter Jr. #3
    MEM – McLemore #6
    POR - McCollum - #10
    IND - Oladipo #2

    Also of note I picked a few players who have already flashed potential beyond their draft pick #

    Best picks outside top 10 (superstar/potential to be)
    CHA – Monk #11
    IND – Turner #11
    PHO – Booker #13
    PHI – Saric #12
    DEN – Jokic #41
    MIL – Giannis #15
    ATL – Schroder #17
    UTA – Gobert #27

    Looking at the list I've come up with some teams that have MAJOR potential based solely on their drafting the past 5 years (not taking into account their financials)

    PHI
    BOS
    PHO
    MIL
    MIN - discounted because they got the #1 pick in years with an obvious selection
    ORL

    4 of the best drafting teams of the last 5 years are in the East, not the West. BOS, MIL should be in the playoffs this year and both PHI and ORL have a chance to make it. If these 4 teams make the right moves over the next year or so, they should be power houses in the NBA over the next 5-10 years.

    Out west, beyond GS, the picture is a bit bleaker. MIN looks to be on the rise (if they can ever play defense). LAL has some nice you pieces that need to develop better but are a premier destination with cap space. PHO with Booker and Chriss...Bender maybe...and cap space could find themselves back on top soon. Outside of that, a lot of question marks in the West.

    We may finally be seeing the NBA shift from decades of Western dominance. If only the Eastern teams don't screw it up along the way.
    FIrst off....great post. One of the best I have ever seen!

    Hmmm....a lot to digest. One thing to consider with the Lakers is that they are trying to package players with bad contracts along with a good young player to free up salary cap space.

    I think at a quick glance it does look like Philly has made some good picks that just took a while to get healthy and play.

    Celtics look brilliant....Charlotte looks to have done awful with their picks.

    Minnestota and Boston have done well...but they do have a couple of number 1 picks.

    As far as the NBA landscape changing I think the east is deeper than it has been in recent years...but not top heavy. The west is top heavy....Houston and GS are the 2 best teams in the league right now IMO and when San Antonio gets healthy they could be there also. I dont see teams 5-8 being as good in the west as they have been in previous years. Things drop off drastically after Minnesota.

    T wovles should be good for many years if they are able to retain their young players.
    El Presidente

  5. #5
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    Brooklyn has traded for Okafor and Stauskas. They now have Russell (#2 - 2015), Oakafor (#3 - 2015) and Stauskas (#8 - 2014) - I guess that's one way to recoup top draft picks after trading yours.

    I actually do like this trade. Okafor has a much needed change of scenery on a team that a massive hole at C. When Tyler Zeller is playing 18 minutes a night - you have problems. Okafor should be able to score with this young group. Defense will be a problem with this team - but it already was. I think they're better and younger overall for it.

    Which is great for them now that we don't have their pick and it's sitting in CLE. Let's go Nets!

    City of Champions

  6. #6
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    I like what Brooklyn is doing!! Make the Nets pick less valuable for Cavs!

    Hope that Lakers pick conveys this year....bring in Bagley to add to the Boston Bluedevils I mean the Duke Celtics I mean....you know what I mean lol

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by CELTICS4LYFE View Post
    I like what Brooklyn is doing!! Make the Nets pick less valuable for Cavs!

    Hope that Lakers pick conveys this year....bring in Bagley to add to the Boston Bluedevils I mean the Duke Celtics I mean....you know what I mean lol
    Even if it does convey, I doubt we get Bagley. He's going #1 - which we won't have

    City of Champions

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oakmont_4 View Post
    Even if it does convey, I doubt we get Bagley. He's going #1 - which we won't have
    If Bagley is slated as the #1 pick, then I'm sure the real #1 will fall to the C's...
    "I've never been scared of contact. Now I get to bring it, that's what I love to do, so I'm going to bring it."

    Reggie Lewis



    GET OFF YOUR HEELS BILL !!!

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever35 View Post
    If Bagley is slated as the #1 pick, then I'm sure the real #1 will fall to the C's...
    Bagley will undoubtedly go #1. I'll be happy at #3-5 and pick up Porter when he falls due to his injury.

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  10. #10
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    Yeah but it’s still no definite #1 yet we’ll see at the draft HOPEFULLY he falls a little and we end up with 2-5 and snatch him lol

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oakmont_4 View Post
    Brooklyn has traded for Okafor and Stauskas. They now have Russell (#2 - 2015), Oakafor (#3 - 2015) and Stauskas (#8 - 2014) - I guess that's one way to recoup top draft picks after trading yours.

    I actually do like this trade. Okafor has a much needed change of scenery on a team that a massive hole at C. When Tyler Zeller is playing 18 minutes a night - you have problems. Okafor should be able to score with this young group. Defense will be a problem with this team - but it already was. I think they're better and younger overall for it.

    Which is great for them now that we don't have their pick and it's sitting in CLE. Let's go Nets!
    I love what Brooklyn has done the past year with taking on bad contracts along with good young players in deals. They need to pay somebody so they take on Mozgov and get a DeAngelo....they take on a DeMarre and that gets them a draft pick....Carroll is decent BTW. They take on Okafor for nothing...Trevor Booker. Great stuff. Some injuries have bogged them down this year but I like how they are trying to build even though they made so many mistakes the past few years.
    El Presidente

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oakmont_4 View Post
    Bagley will undoubtedly go #1. I'll be happy at #3-5 and pick up Porter when he falls due to his injury.
    Porter falling into our laps at 3-5 would be amazing.
    El Presidente

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by rufo4100 View Post
    Porter falling into our laps at 3-5 would be amazing.

    Yes he’s who I originally wanted in this draft, we’ll see about his back tho

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