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  1. #16
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    I mean if anyone argues completion percentage and doesn't also factor ypa, they're an idiot.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    I think it's over and under rated at the same time.

    It's overrated when people don't apply context to what's going on and it's underrated when people manage to apply the context.

    Take your example. It's overrated when it's just put on the paper. But when you explain that Cam played in a run and gun offense and his Y/C were really high; and meanwhile Sam played in a spread/rhythm passing offense with lower Y/C and based on YAC.

    I think the most overrated QB stat is ESPN's QBR. Mostly because we don't have a formula. The other week, DeShne Kizer's sub-200 passing yard game, 1 rush touchdown was a 70-something; meanwhile Jared Goff's 300+ yard, 4 TD day was rated a 44.4. I want that explained. How in the hell is that possible?

    these new nerd stats make my point for me because all you would really have to do is watch the games and know that Goff was more impressive than Kizer just on eye test alone stat wise even though I think Kizer is a better talent

    the new age nerds are running laps around those who fall for the NBA/NFL/MLB alphabet boys material

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    Finishing drives in the opposing end zone is far more important.
    So completion percentage then. That's the best way to tell whether or not drives ended in the end zone.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    So completion percentage then. That's the best way to tell whether or not drives ended in the end zone.
    Absolutely not.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    So completion percentage then. That's the best way to tell whether or not drives ended in the end zone.
    Fake news.

    PROCESSING

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    Fake news.
    The Dolphins are last in scoring and Cutler is 9th in completion percentage.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    The Dolphins are last in scoring and Cutler is 9th in completion percentage.
    Can't make this stuff up.

    PROCESSING

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    In my opinion it's completion percentage.

    It has been increasing consistently for decades; both through changes in offensive scheme like the West Coast offense or more recently the spread offense, and through rule changes that benefit QBs and receivers. It factors heavily into passer rating, which is also on a steady incline.

    Since football games are decided by points, I personally am a much bigger fan of TD percentage, especially when combined with a relatively high number of attempts.

    Compare these two QB stat lines from recent seasons:
    Code:
    Att Comp% TD%
    
    552 71.6  3.6
    495 59.8  7.1
    Which one would you rather have?

    Well, the first line is Sam Bradford in 2016 and the second line is Cam Newton in his 2015 MVP season.

    I'd take the latter every time.

    Last season, Wentz had 38.9 attempts/game with a 62.4 comp.% and a 2.6 TD%.
    This season, he has 32.3 attempts/game with a 60.5 comp.% and a whopping 7.9 TD%.
    I'm a much bigger fan of his performance this season.

    Naturally, a defense helps their QB's TD% to some extent in shortening the field for the offense. The Eagles are currently 8th in average starting field position per drive. The Rams are 1st, the Cowboys 2nd, and the Saints 3rd. The defense also helps in holding a lead which usually means the QBs has to throw fewer and less dangerous passes. A run game helps as well but how much the opposing defense focuses on it (allowing for play action, etc.) is much harder to quantify statistically. So there's a lot that factors into TD% but looking through history, a high number still means the QB was having a great season. Which can't be said of completion percentage.

    BTW, Deshaun Watson while still averaging more than 30 attempts/game in his 6 starts, had a ridiculously high TD% of 9.3 this season. That's the highest in the league since Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (9.0), Tom Brady in 2007 (8.7), and Peyton Manning in 2004 (9.9). It really sucks that Watson tore his ACL because at that pace he was on track to have a truly historical rookie season.
    Lol, I came here to spout off about completion percentage being the worst. You did all my work for me. Well done.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    So completion percentage then. That's the best way to tell whether or not drives ended in the end zone.
    Are you going for some Guinness record for being wrong about football or something?

  10. #25
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    Alex Smith had a completion percentage of 67.5% today.

    It's completions like this that are the best way to tell whether or not this drive ended in the end zone:


  11. #26
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    Lol. Back to his cowardly ways.

    Sadly my team has a coward QB too

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    Completion percentage is directly linked to Y/A because every incompletion counts as an attempt for 0 yards.

    Finishing drives in the opposing end zone is far more important. A dink and dunk offense that achieves this regularly is no disadvantage at all. If a QB can't pull this off, then a defense forcing an offense into this mode puts it at an obvious disadvantage. Without a running game those numbers could still be high but not result in scoring drives and wins.

    Take Aaron Rodgers this season: he's 8th in completion percentage, 19th in Y/A, but 3rd in TD%. So leaving out that last number, the stats wouldn't reflect his greatness.

    Matt Ryan is 6th in both comp% and Y/A, but his struggles this season are reflected in him being 18th in TD%.
    Blake Bortles scored a lot of TDs a couple years ago as well

  13. #28
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    Bullseyed off the mark, again.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by jason View Post
    Blake Bortles scored a lot of TDs a couple years ago as well
    Garbage time is weird, isn't it?

    Still, his TD% was 5.7 which is very good but not exceptional.

    I should note that me talking about how overrated comp% is, and how underrated TD% is, doesn't mean I believe you can evaluate a QB by his stats. Never have. I mean, I spent a paragraph in my opening post talking about how the defense and the run game affects TD%, stating those are just two factors among many.

  15. #30
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    Jun 2011
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    TD% Rank and QB Record

    1. 3-3
    2. 9-1
    3. 4-2
    4. 8-2
    5. 6-3
    6. 6-4
    7. 4-6
    8. 6-4
    9. 5-5
    10. 7-3

    Total: 58-33 (63.7%)


    Comp% Rank and QB Record

    1. 8-2
    2. 6-4
    3. 4-6
    4. 8-2
    5. 4-6
    6. 5-4
    7. 1-3
    8. 4-2
    9. 6-2
    10. 5-5

    Total: 51-36 (58.6%)


    INT% Rank and QB Record

    1. 8-2
    2. 6-4
    3. 5-4
    4. 7-3
    5. 2-4
    6. 4-6
    7. 6-4
    8. 8-2
    9. 2-8
    10. 4-2

    Total: 52-39 (57.1%)



    So not much difference between the three rate stats as far as correlation to win%. I figured this thread out though, during this research. TD% is the only one of the three stats where Wentz is in the top 10, which is why it is all Eagles fans posting about how bad Comp% is. Because Wentz is like 35th in the league in Comp%.

    Kind of like in Cam's one good year where he was something like 90% accurate on deep balls (high TD%) but still 50% comp, versus every other year where he has been average at best. Points to a possible big regression next year for Wentz, but we'll see.


    "Hater" is a term used by weak minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
    -Scott van Pelt

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