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  1. #1
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    Most Overrated/Underrated Stat in the NFL

    In my opinion it's completion percentage.

    It has been increasing consistently for decades; both through changes in offensive scheme like the West Coast offense or more recently the spread offense, and through rule changes that benefit QBs and receivers. It factors heavily into passer rating, which is also on a steady incline.

    Since football games are decided by points, I personally am a much bigger fan of TD percentage, especially when combined with a relatively high number of attempts.

    Compare these two QB stat lines from recent seasons:
    Code:
    Att Comp% TD%
    
    552 71.6  3.6
    495 59.8  7.1
    Which one would you rather have?

    Well, the first line is Sam Bradford in 2016 and the second line is Cam Newton in his 2015 MVP season.

    I'd take the latter every time.

    Last season, Wentz had 38.9 attempts/game with a 62.4 comp.% and a 2.6 TD%.
    This season, he has 32.3 attempts/game with a 60.5 comp.% and a whopping 7.9 TD%.
    I'm a much bigger fan of his performance this season.

    Naturally, a defense helps their QB's TD% to some extent in shortening the field for the offense. The Eagles are currently 8th in average starting field position per drive. The Rams are 1st, the Cowboys 2nd, and the Saints 3rd. The defense also helps in holding a lead which usually means the QBs has to throw fewer and less dangerous passes. A run game helps as well but how much the opposing defense focuses on it (allowing for play action, etc.) is much harder to quantify statistically. So there's a lot that factors into TD% but looking through history, a high number still means the QB was having a great season. Which can't be said of completion percentage.

    BTW, Deshaun Watson while still averaging more than 30 attempts/game in his 6 starts, had a ridiculously high TD% of 9.3 this season. That's the highest in the league since Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (9.0), Tom Brady in 2007 (8.7), and Peyton Manning in 2004 (9.9). It really sucks that Watson tore his ACL because at that pace he was on track to have a truly historical rookie season.
    Last edited by QB_Eagles; 11-19-2017 at 08:56 AM.

  2. #2
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    I think it's over and under rated at the same time.

    It's overrated when people don't apply context to what's going on and it's underrated when people manage to apply the context.

    Take your example. It's overrated when it's just put on the paper. But when you explain that Cam played in a run and gun offense and his Y/C were really high; and meanwhile Sam played in a spread/rhythm passing offense with lower Y/C and based on YAC.

    I think the most overrated QB stat is ESPN's QBR. Mostly because we don't have a formula. The other week, DeShne Kizer's sub-200 passing yard game, 1 rush touchdown was a 70-something; meanwhile Jared Goff's 300+ yard, 4 TD day was rated a 44.4. I want that explained. How in the hell is that possible?

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  3. #3
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    I'd agree the stat is overrated...even more so when comparing current QB years to QBs in the past whose receivers didn't get the same benefits. With that in mind, I've not paid attention- if a WR draws a flag on a play, it goes as an incomplete pass I'd assume...and therefore positive yards for the team, yet dropping completion percentage. Similarly, if a pass is thrown away, it goes as incomplete, yet is positive in that there was no interception.

    While Bradford's stats looked good last year, as a Vikings fan it was also frustrating (tho not Sam's fault, the line's) to see SO many passes completed yards short of the 1st down marker...where the receiver had little chance to get the 1st. Completing 3 straight passes for 8 yards simply pads completion percentage, but you're still punting.
    Last edited by SiteWolf; 11-19-2017 at 09:17 AM.
    gotta love 'referential' treatment

  4. #4
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    As a panther fan comp% is the easy choice. So much goes into determining it from team to team. Cam routinely is in the upper part of passers who go down field and prior to this year didn't have a short yardage receiver in addition to having to throw tight windows because his receivers don't get separation.

    I'd also add in passer rating based on how it accounts for comp% and YPA which are both heavily influenced by receivers and scheme.


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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    I'd agree the stat is overrated...even more so when comparing current QB years to QBs in the past whose receivers didn't get the same benefits. With that in mind, I've not paid attention- if a WR draws a flag on a play, it goes as an incomplete pass I'd assume...and therefore positive yards for the team, yet dropping completion percentage. Similarly, if a pass is thrown away, it goes as incomplete, yet is positive in that there was no interception.

    While Bradford's stats looked good last year, as a Vikings fan it was also frustrating (tho not Sam's fault, the line's) to see SO many passes completed yards short of the 1st down marker...where the receiver had little chance to get the 1st. Completing 3 straight passes for 8 yards simply pads completion percentage, but you're still punting.
    Nah, if a flag is accepted it doesn't effect stats (unless its a flag that gets tacked on like a personal foul).


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  6. #6
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    Completion percentage is my answer. At least as a stand alone stat. It probably needs to be looked at in conjunction with YPA.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mell413 View Post
    Completion percentage is my answer. At least as a stand alone stat. It probably needs to be looked at in conjunction with YPA.
    Id agree to this.


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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    It's overrated when people don't apply context to what's going on and it's underrated when people manage to apply the context.

    Take your example. It's overrated when it's just put on the paper. But when you explain that Cam played in a run and gun offense and his Y/C were really high; and meanwhile Sam played in a spread/rhythm passing offense with lower Y/C and based on YAC.
    I argued that completion percentage is overrated and used those two players' seasons as examples. How does the scheme Bradford played in make his completion percentage underrated? It pretty much explains how someone who nobody thinks of as a great QB now holds the record for best single-season completion percentage in history.

  9. #9
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    Most overrated stat: Lionels

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    I argued that completion percentage is overrated and used those two players' seasons as examples. How does the scheme Bradford played in make his completion percentage underrated? It pretty much explains how someone who nobody thinks of as a great QB now holds the record for best single-season completion percentage in history.
    Maybe I wasnt clear enough but Sams is a version where the scheme shows comp% overrated.

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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mell413 View Post
    Completion percentage is my answer. At least as a stand alone stat. It probably needs to be looked at in conjunction with YPA.
    Completion percentage is directly linked to Y/A because every incompletion counts as an attempt for 0 yards.

    Finishing drives in the opposing end zone is far more important. A dink and dunk offense that achieves this regularly is no disadvantage at all. If a QB can't pull this off, then a defense forcing an offense into this mode puts it at an obvious disadvantage. Without a running game those numbers could still be high but not result in scoring drives and wins.

    Take Aaron Rodgers this season: he's 8th in completion percentage, 19th in Y/A, but 3rd in TD%. So leaving out that last number, the stats wouldn't reflect his greatness.

    Matt Ryan is 6th in both comp% and Y/A, but his struggles this season are reflected in him being 18th in TD%.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Most overrated stat: Lionels
    Na, Qb Wins

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Most overrated stat: Lionels
    This has to be the post of the week! lol

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Most overrated stat: Lionels
    How can something be overrated that everyone thinks is bad/useless?

    Everyone including Lionel, otherwise he wouldn't have to modify it so frequently.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Most overrated stat: Lionels
    This...

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