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  1. #1
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    Realistic moves you want to see your team do this off-season - Discussion

    Discuss the things you want to see your team do this off-season.

    From trades to free agent signings
    40 man roster updates, be aware of budget and realistic moves from the perspective of other teams.

  2. #2
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    What I hope to see the Cardinals do this off-season




    I've spent a lot of time wondering what we should have to do this off-season. Some off-seasons (like let Pujols walk, sign Beltran for example) were obvious choices.


    This year has been a struggle because we have a team of quantity and 2 win players with good depth, and are a close to competitive, but not quite team. We have been stuck in the middle for awhile, and that's a touch place to be. You want to either rebuild or win now. Not be stuck in limbo.



    So, I finally mapped out the direction I would prefer, and tried to be realistic.




    Get Stanton.

    Give up O’Neill, Flaherty, and one of Grichuk or Piscotty. My guess is they would take Grichuk over Piscotty.

    That is two outfielders, with Grichuk being capable of being their CFer, and O'Neill as a long term option as an outfielder, but can start the season in AAA. Flaherty can slate directly into their rotation. Cards take on 100% of Stanton's contract.

    Of course, Stanton needs to agree to this trade.

    Re-sign Nicasio (3/24, spread equally)
    Sign Bryan Shaw (3/21, spread equally)
    Find a starter to be there in case Wainwright can’t start and needs to go the pen (that fringe starter/long reliever vet - Wade Miley, Tyler Chatwood, Liriano, etc 1/6 with incentives)
    Diaz and Voit to Tampa Bay for Brad Miller



    Molina and Kelly catch
    1B – Carpenter/Miller
    2B – Wong/Gryoko/Miller/Garcia
    SS – DeJong/Miller/Garcia
    3B – Gyroko/Carpenter/Garcia/Miller
    LF – Pham
    CF – Fowler
    RF – Stanton
    OF – Piscotty
    OF – Martinez

    Rotation
    1. Martinez
    2. Wacha
    3. Wainwright
    4. Weaver
    5. Hudson
    Reyes when healthy moves Hudson or Wainwright based on performance. Wainwright to pen or Hudson to AAA

    Long man/swing reliever (Minor?)
    Bowman, Cecil, Nicasio, Shaw?, Alcantara, Lyons, Brebbia etc

    Protect guys like Mercado and upside minor leaguers.

    Lineup
    1. Carpenter
    2. Fowler
    3. Pham
    4. Stanton
    5-8 combo of Molina, Gyroko, Wong, DeJong, Miller.

    That’s a much improved offense in 2018, with Piscotty/Grichuk (whichever isn’t traded) prepared to step in when injuries happen.

    If the Marlins would rather have Hudson than Flaherty, that’s an option too.

    Cards need and can handle Stanton better than another MLB club.


    Contracts would look like this:
    Long man option- $6M guaranteed, with another $3M for hitting various innings pitched marks ($500K at 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 175)
    Nicasio - $3/24 - $8 spread evenly
    Shaw - $3/21 - $7 spread evenly
    Front loading with either pitcher may not be a bad idea, but with Wainwright's ugly contract this year, it could be a choice they can consider.


    Payroll (budget of $165M) and 40 man:

    C - Molina - $20M
    C - Kelly - .5M
    1B - Carpenter - $13.75M
    2B - Wong - $4M
    SS - DeJong - $.5M
    3B - Gyroko - $9M
    IF - Garcia - $.5M
    IF - Miller - $4.4M (projected)
    LF - Pham - $.5M
    CF - Fowler - $16.5M
    RF - Stanton - $25M
    OF - Piscotty - $1.3M
    OF - Martinez - $.5M

    13 players - $96.45M



    Pitching
    Rotation
    1. Martinez - $11.7M
    2. Wacha - $5.9M (projected)
    3. Reyes - $.5M
    4. Weaver - $.5M
    5. Flaherty - $.5M
    6. Wainwright - $19.5M
    Long - One of the options- $6M

    Reliever
    Lyons (L) - $1.3M (projected)
    Cecil (L) - $7.75M
    Bowman (R) - $.5M
    Nicasio (R) - $8M
    Shaw (R) - $7M
    Tuvy (R) - $.5M
    Alcantara (R) - $.5M

    14 pitchers - $70.15M



    Additional players for the 40 man that could see minor league time
    C - Rosario
    IF - Mejia
    IF - Sosa
    IF - Valera
    OF - Sierra
    OF - Bader
    Add to 40 man - Mercado OF
    All hitters - 20 total players - $100.0M

    P - Mayers
    P - Sherriff
    P - Lucas
    P - Wick
    Add to 40 man - Gomber
    All pitchers - 18 total players - $72.15M

    Room for two others they can still protect

    There are a few additional movements the team can make in regards to the 40 man, but that's another discussion.



    They have some money coming and going in regards to Gyroko and Leake, not certain how that affects their budget. Cot's has it listed as $2.5 of Gyroko is paid by Padres. Cards are paying $6M to Seattle for Leake this year. So that would put this years budget up to $170, with next year going back down to $160M with not many needs left for the club.

    I would think $150M is more realistic for them, this is spending $170M, but they should be able to absorb it for a year, especially with Wainwright falling off the following year.





    If there is an area to pull back on, it would be that Shaw is a luxury. He would be the last priority. The hope is that no market ever developed for him because of the Holland's and Davis' of the market and he falls down to a price that the Cards would be happy to have.

    I would say this is a 90-94 win team on paper.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 11-06-2017 at 01:28 AM.

  3. #3
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    Re-signing Yu Darvish or acquiring some other elite starting pitcher and a new hitting coach. Someone needs to teach Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger to lay off of those low curveballs. Otherwise, I think the Dodgers are in position to return to the World Series again. Trading for Stanton would be a plus (but not necessary).

    Future Hall of Shamers:
    (1) B.A.L.C.O. Barroids (2) Mark McJuicer (3) Jose Chem-seco (4) Rafael Palmeiroids (5) Ken Chem-initi (6) Jason Gi-andro (7) Ryan Fraud (8) Muscle Melk (9) Woman-Ram (10) Shammy Sosa (11) Roger Clear-mens (12) A-Roid (13) Ryan HGHoward

  4. #4
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    Braves

    Trade one of Kemp or Markakis to make room for Ronald Acuna

    Sign Todd Frazier or Eduardo Núñez, what ever one comes cheaper

    Get help for the bullpen but don't spend too much, Watson, Cishek, Kintzler, Swarzak, Hunter

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by dodgerdave View Post

    Re-signing Yu Darvish or acquiring some other elite starting pitcher and a new hitting coach. Someone needs to teach Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger to lay off of those low curveballs. Otherwise, I think the Dodgers are in position to return to the World Series again. Trading for Stanton would be a plus (but not necessary).
    What if Yu would be 6/160? Would you want him then?

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrench View Post
    Braves

    Trade one of Kemp or Markakis to make room for Ronald Acuna

    Sign Todd Frazier or Eduardo Núñez, what ever one comes cheaper

    Get help for the bullpen but don't spend too much, Watson, Cishek, Kintzler, Swarzak, Hunter
    I like that you have realistic options.

    Dunno who would take Kemp or Markakis without money going with them.

  7. #7
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    I'd like to see the Yankees sign Otani if he's posted. Then in FA go for Avila to catch 70-80 games and free Sanchez up to DH more (his defense is fine despite people overreacting to ever **** up - big thing though is keeping that 40 HR pace bat in the lineup as much as possible). Also go for a lefty reliever like Tony Watson. Salary dump Ellsbury for whatever we can save (I'm thinking some team would take him for like $5M/year) to free up C. Frazier for playing time. The departures of Holliday and T. Frazier should free up time for Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    I'd like to see the Yankees sign Otani if he's posted. Then in FA go for Avila to catch 70-80 games and free Sanchez up to DH more (his defense is fine despite people overreacting to ever **** up - big thing though is keeping that 40 HR pace bat in the lineup as much as possible). Also go for a lefty reliever like Tony Watson. Salary dump Ellsbury for whatever we can save (I'm thinking some team would take him for like $5M/year) to free up C. Frazier for playing time. The departures of Holliday and T. Frazier should free up time for Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar.
    What would payroll end up around?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    What would payroll end up around?
    Using arbitration projections I found on MLBTR the Yankees will have about $28.8M to spend and stay under the tax before any Ellsbury savings. They project Avila to get $8M AAV and then $6M for Watson. And then I think Otani will just be a minimum salary player since the bonus doesn't count. So should be about $15M or so below it I'd think.

    Here's my full breakdown:

    2018 Luxury Tax Tracker:

    Dead Money
    McCann - $5,500,000
    Total: $5,500,000

    Long-term contracts (counted at average annual value)
    1) Tanaka - $22,142,857 (can opt out)
    2) Ellsbury - $21,857,143
    3) Chapman - $17,200,000
    4) Gardner - $13,000,000
    5) Headley - $13,000,000
    6) Robertson - $11,500,000
    7) Castro - $8,571,429
    Total: $107,271,429

    Running Total: $112,771,429

    Arbitration Projections
    source: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...-for-2018.html
    8) Warren - $3,100,000
    9) Didi - $9,000,000
    10) Betances - $4,400,000
    11) Gray - $6,600,000
    12) Romine - $1,200,000
    13) Hicks - $2,900,000
    14) Kahnle - $1,300,000
    15) Shreve - $900,000
    Total: $29,400,000

    Running Total: $142,171,429

    That's the running total for 15 players and dead money. Next pool would be for pre-arbitration guys. Judge, Bird, Sanchez, Torreyes all fall into this category. The Yankees can assign them whatever they want for salary from the minimum to a little more. I'm sure they'll be relatively generous with guys like Judge and Sanchez that have established some type of track record. All in all, I'll project as a rough estimate an average of $600K for the remaining 10 spots on the 25 man roster.
    Total ($600K * 10): $6,000,000

    Running Total: $148,171,429

    So after that now we get to the rest of the 40 man roster and player benefits. Just to be conservative I'll say they total $20M.

    Final Total = $168,571,429

    So by my calculations, we'll have about $28,828,571 of money to spend under the $197M tax threshold
    Last edited by hugepatsfan; 11-06-2017 at 02:00 PM.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Using arbitration projections I found on MLBTR the Yankees will have about $28.8M to spend and stay under the tax before any Ellsbury savings. They project Avila to get $8M AAV and then $6M for Watson. And then I think Otani will just be a minimum salary player since the bonus doesn't count. So should be about $15M or so below it I'd think.

    Here's my full breakdown:
    Nice. I think that's possible.

    The Otani part is the only thing that is going to be a challenge (no matter what).

    How many wins would you project from that team?

  11. #11
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    For the brewers, I would like to trade prospects for a youngish, controllable, high end starting pitcher. Not exactly sure who would be available, but a guy like archer is who I would be making calls on. I'd prefer to keep Brinson and hader, but understand that trading Brinson is probably required to acquire a high end pitcher. We have a very deep farm, so it's possible we could get a deal done without Brinson, but it seems more likely that Brinson will be included.

    Upgrade at 2nd base. I have no confidence in a villar bounce back and sogard isn't the every day option. I'd either resign Neil walker or trade for Dee Gordon, assuming the cost for him isn't very high for a team willing to take on most of his contract.

    I'd then look to sign some relief help, like bringing back swarzak and maybe a lower tier #4 or 5 type starter. So assuming Brinson is part of a deal for an archer type of pitcher, our roster would look something like:

    C-Pina/vogt
    1B-thames/Aguilar
    2B-Gordon or walker/sogard
    SS-arcia
    3B-Shaw
    RF-Santana
    CF-Phillips/Perez
    LF-Braun

    SP-archer, Anderson, Nelson(let hader try starting while Nelson is hurt), woodruff and FA.

    RP-knebel, swarzak, Hughes, FA and a roster battle between what's left of our bullpen from last year and young guys. Hader likely moves back to the pen when Nelson returns unless he looks really good as a starter.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    For the brewers, I would like to trade prospects for a youngish, controllable, high end starting pitcher. Not exactly sure who would be available, but a guy like archer is who I would be making calls on. I'd prefer to keep Brinson and hader, but understand that trading Brinson is probably required to acquire a high end pitcher. We have a very deep farm, so it's possible we could get a deal done without Brinson, but it seems more likely that Brinson will be included.

    Upgrade at 2nd base. I have no confidence in a villar bounce back and sogard isn't the every day option. I'd either resign Neil walker or trade for Dee Gordon, assuming the cost for him isn't very high for a team willing to take on most of his contract.

    I'd then look to sign some relief help, like bringing back swarzak and maybe a lower tier #4 or 5 type starter. So assuming Brinson is part of a deal for an archer type of pitcher, our roster would look something like:

    C-Pina/vogt
    1B-thames/Aguilar
    2B-Gordon or walker/sogard
    SS-arcia
    3B-Shaw
    RF-Santana
    CF-Phillips/Perez
    LF-Braun

    SP-archer, Anderson, Nelson(let hader try starting while Nelson is hurt), woodruff and FA.

    RP-knebel, swarzak, Hughes, FA and a roster battle between what's left of our bullpen from last year and young guys. Hader likely moves back to the pen when Nelson returns unless he looks really good as a starter.
    The issue with Archer is that the Rays likely want one of the universal top 10 specs in all of baseball to start the trade, probably top 3.

    Brinson is probably top 15-20 range, so the Rays would want to start with him, and still get more on top of him.

    Archer is good and controllable through his peak. He'll be hard for anyone to get.

    I think you could probably get a pitcher just below that level though. Archer is going to cost what Q and Sale cost.

    I would think a Dan Strailey or Sean Manaea might be easier to get. But they aren't as good obviously.

    The problem is that every one wants cost controlled pitching, and a team like the Rays are only moving Archer because they believe someone is going to overpay them for him.


    I do think Dee Gordon could end up in Milwaukee, and he would be a good fit for Milwaukee depending on the prospect/salary exchanged.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Nice. I think that's possible.

    The Otani part is the only thing that is going to be a challenge (no matter what).

    How many wins would you project from that team?
    I'd say 95+. I mean, they won 91 last year with a dominant run differential. Despite the great bullpen they were strangely terrible in one run games and had a lot of blown leads.

    I'd think with some minor improvements they could be 4 games better. Wildcard though would be regression from guys like Judge/Severino and then I had us relying on rookies Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier to play fairly regularly at least. But Bird I think is poised for a breakout year at 1B and I expect Tanaka to be more of the 2nd half variety than first. Also hoping guys like Chapman can be a little less up and down along with D-Rob/Kahnle being there for the whole year (Betances I'm pretty nervous about).

    But yeah, add it all up and I think 95 would be a pretty fair projection.


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  14. #14
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    Cubs are expected to have more than 50m available for this offseason

    Sign Cozart and trade Addison Russell for a cost controlled SP - add a little to get Stroman? Also really like Manaea and Honeywell a lot.
    Trade for Stanton - I think there will end up being a lot of teams offering deals and at the end of it all, the general baseball populous will be surprised at the return Miami gets. Could dangle Schwarber + prospects.
    Sign Alex Cobb - I'm not enthralled with this idea but basically everybody is already linking us as the heavy favorites to get him
    Sign Reed and Minor

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    What if Yu would be 6/160? Would you want him then?
    Friedman doesn't want pitchers in later years; its why they hit a limit on Geinke. I would doubt they go over 4 years for YU or the equivalent of a 4 year deal spread over 5. The whole pitching system with so many "injured" starters was lots of lower dollar replaceable parts returning the same value which worked well until the end.

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