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  1. #1
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    Here We go Again!

    Carson Wentz is on a trajectory to end the 2017 seasons with 4,692 yards and 43 TD's. One big reason for Wentz success through week 7, Eagles tackles Lane Johnson and Jason Peters rank 5th and 2nd respective among all Tackles this season according to PFF. Lane Jonson missed 10 games last season, Wentz performance dipped in almost direct proportion to Johnson's absence. Now, following Week 7 -- Peters is gone due to injury at Left Tackle. If Wentz dependence on Peters in pass protection shadows that of Johnson a year ago, then my end of the year projections for Wentz need to be adjusted lower, much lower.


    One of the shockers for me as far as Wentz game is that he's scrambling at Cam Newton and Russell Wilson levels. Wentz is average over 6 rushes per game. Prescott, at least for the time being, has the benefit of Ezekiel Elliott carrying the ball 22 times per game. But Prescott is more efficient running the ball -- he owns the higher rush avg. and projects 7 or 8 more rush TDs compared to Wentz.*


    But the 'Prescott's-numbers-are-inflated-because-of-Elliott' argument is one that takes me back a few years ago. Following the 2012 Season, I was sold on Russell Wilson being the best QB in the 2012 draft. Almost no one outside of maybe a few Seahawks homers would make that claim. It was still Robert Griffin fever, and most every mainstream analyst promoted Andrew Luck as the greatest QB they'd ever seen. The career numbers were never strongly in Luck's favor in comparison with Wilson. The argument was that Wilson was more successful because of played with league's best defense and Marshawn Lynch at running back. Of course, no one was pointing out a few key observations, one, defensive players have little to do with a QB's passing stats, two, that the Seahawks had Lynch and that same defense the previous year and failed to make the playoffs, three, Andrew Luck played in the easiest division in football at the time. * **


    Fast forward to 2015, the Seahawks lose Lynch for the majority of the season. What happens to Wilson? He was better than ever. This season, lacking a run game and pass protection, he's on pace for arguably the 2nd best season of his career. Lynch, the LOB, Wilson all helped the Seahawks reach two super bowl's, but Russell Wilson is a top QB in this league, and his passing stats are great simply because he's a great QB.*


    I'm making the same statement in my evaluations of Dak Prescott. I've been watching Prescott since his Mississippi St. years. He's accurate, reads defenses well, exceptionally poised in the pocket, mobile, and can improvise when the play breaks down. He has all the attributes to be successful as an NFL QB. The knock against Prescott in the sports media has been that his numbers are inflated because he plays with Elliott and the greatest offensive line in the game. The Cowboys offensive line isn't nearly as dominate this year compared to last year, and Dak's numbers are equally as impressive as his 2016 campaign. Although his YPA is down, he's on pace for 11 or 12 more TD's, his INTs are up but fumbles are down, and his rush yards and rush 1st downs are on pace to nearly double on the same amount of carries.


    Luck finished with a better rookie year than Wentz, but both went 1st and 2nd respectively overall in the draft. Wilson and Prescott, 75th and 135th respectively -- they weren't expected to start at the opening of their rookie preseason, let alone finish as top-10 QB's. But this is why I'm so heavy into stats, it repels the media hype to some degree. I'm trying to tell whoever is listening again, I've watched these QB's since college, I've analyzed all the numbers: with or without Elliott, Dak Prescott is and will go down as a better QB than Carson Wentz.

  2. #2
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    Basically a sneaky way of making another prescott versus Wentz Thread.. I'm down!

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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaydubb View Post
    Basically a sneaky way of making another prescott versus Wentz Thread.. I'm down!

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    If only thatís what this was...

    Luck is still a damn good qb so long as he can return from this injury okay.

    Russell is still able to enjoy a successful season because he still has the defense which allows him to run the offense in a patient manner.

    If the defense wasnít there youíd most certainly see Russellís inefficiency spike drastically in an attempt to keep up in games.


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  4. 10-25-2017, 09:19 PM

  5. #4
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    The next step is to see how Wentz does without Jason peters and how dak does without Ezekiel Elliot.

    Luck has all the talent in the world but it seems like he's always hurt. The colts need to put a better offensive line to protect him or he will constantly be out. Russell Wilson is just tough because he's one of the best in the game at escaping the pocket and has the duel threat ability of throwing on the run or getting the 1st with his legs.

    Great comparison, these 4.. Luck and Wilson taken in the same draft and Wentz and dak taken in same draft. 2 high picks (Wentz and luck) and 2 mid round picks (dak and Wilson). All 4 are good quarterbacks and help their teams win games. Wentz and luck are similar type quarterbacks that like to sit in the pocket and deliver throws but also can escape the pocket and throw on the run or pick up 1st downs with their legs. Wilson and dak are also similar in that both are probably better once they scramble out of the pocket and make defenses either commit to the QB running the ball or pass. Pick your poison

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    Last edited by jaydubb; 10-26-2017 at 02:32 AM.

    Your baby can't do this

  6. #5
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    Agenda gonna agenda.

  7. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    Carson Wentz is on a trajectory to end the 2017 seasons with 4,692 yards and 43 TD's. One big reason for Wentz success through week 7, Eagles tackles Lane Johnson and Jason Peters rank 5th and 2nd respective among all Tackles this season according to PFF. Lane Jonson missed 10 games last season, Wentz performance dipped in almost direct proportion to Johnson's absence. Now, following Week 7 -- Peters is gone due to injury at Left Tackle. If Wentz dependence on Peters in pass protection shadows that of Johnson a year ago, then my end of the year projections for Wentz need to be adjusted lower, much lower.
    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    The knock against Prescott in the sports media has been that his numbers are inflated because he plays with Elliott and the greatest offensive line in the game.
    How is it possible to make these two arguments in the same comment, apparently without irony? You think Wentz's numbers are inflated because he has the greatest offensive line in the game and then criticize "the sports media" for thinking Prescott's numbers are inflated because he has has the greatest offensive line in the game.

    There's probably some bias going on as you say you've been following Dak since his college days.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    One of the shockers for me as far as Wentz game is that he's scrambling at Cam Newton and Russell Wilson levels.
    How is it a shocker? Wentz has demonstrated his athleticism and running ability in college. Among all QBs at the 2016 Combine, he had the 2nd best 40 yard dash, 2nd best broad jump, 3rd best 3-cone drill, and 4th best pSPARQ. So is this a shocker like Jordy Nelson's speed is deceptive?

    Moreover, doesn't scrambling only happen when the OL protection breaks down? So what's the point of bringing up PFF's OL rankings like you did above? Maybe you also have to consider the opposing DL's rating, which the Redskins, Chiefs, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers rank highly in. Although I get the feeling you would think Ryan Kerrigan and Joey Bosa are overrated.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    The argument was that Wilson was more successful because of played with league's best defense and Marshawn Lynch at running back. Of course, no one was pointing out a few key observations, one, defensive players have little to do with a QB's passing stats, two, that the Seahawks had Lynch and that same defense the previous year and failed to make the playoffs, three, Andrew Luck played in the easiest division in football at the time. * **

    Fast forward to 2015, the Seahawks lose Lynch for the majority of the season. What happens to Wilson? He was better than ever. This season, lacking a run game and pass protection, he's on pace for arguably the 2nd best season of his career. Lynch, the LOB, Wilson all helped the Seahawks reach two super bowl's, but Russell Wilson is a top QB in this league, and his passing stats are great simply because he's a great QB.*
    Or maybe Wilson's passing stats are great because he plays in the easiest division in football, i.e. the same thing you knock Luck for? The NFC West combined for 23 wins last year compared to the AFC South's 29, a combined point differential of -223 vs -109, a combined SRS of -18.6 vs -4.6.

    You note that the Seahawks failed to make the playoffs in 2011 without Wilson but with Lynch and the LOB, but don't mention that they played in the divisional round the year before, the same playoffs that featured the "Beast Quake". The Seahawks have reached the Super Bowl twice having the number 1 defense (in yards) and Lynch rushing for over 1200 yards, and fail to do so the season they have the number 1 defense but with Lynch only rushing for 400 yards. They win the SB when the defense knocks the opposing offense out of the game early, and lose when Wilson is asked to win the game on his final drive. Meanwhile, the Colts are 43-27 in games with Luck since 2012 and 8-9 without him, or 10-23 when adding 2011 as you're wont to do with the Seahawks. That looks to me as if you've been doing a whole lot of cherry picking to reach your conclusions.

    "Defensive players have little to do with a QB's passing stats" is wrong as well. For one, if the team is playing with the lead it is a whole lot easier to call passing plays, because it's much less obvious for the opposing defense to know whether to expect run or pass, unlike when an offense is down in points, especially late in the game. That allows for plenty of play action, i.e. the statistically most effective passing play in football. Secondly, a defense that consistently gives their QB a short field obviously makes it easier for him to lead scoring drives. The Seahawks had the 7th, 3rd, 3rd, 9th, and 10th best average starting field position in the years 2012-16.

    Finally, why would you even compare Wentz to Luck and Prescott to Wilson? What could be the reason for that? Because it seems to me like last season, Prescott was the one with overwhelming success on offense. He threw for 23 TDs compared to Wentz's 16, whereas in 2012-2014 Luck threw for 86 TDs compared to Wilson's 72. The Cowboys offense finished 5th in yards in 2016, compared to the Eagles 22nd, whereas the Colts finished 6th in passing yards in the years 2012-14 combined, and the Seahawks 28th. If Wentz finds success in the playoffs this year on the strength of his defense, his scrambling ability, and his ability to make critical plays, I'm really looking forward to you telling us how much he is not like Russell Wilson, and how you have to adjust your projections to accommodate for that.
    Last edited by QB_Eagles; 10-26-2017 at 08:18 AM.

  8. #7
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    Wentz wasn't anywhere near as touted as Andrew Luck.

    The return... 2018-19

  9. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    How is it possible to make these two arguments in the same comment, apparently without irony? You think Wentz's numbers are inflated because he has the greatest offensive line in the game and then criticize "the sports media" for thinking Prescott's numbers are inflated because he has has the greatest offensive line in the game.

    There's probably some bias going on as you say you've been following Dak since his college days.


    How is it a shocker? Wentz has demonstrated his athleticism and running ability in college. Among all QBs at the 2016 Combine, he had the 2nd best 40 yard dash, 2nd best broad jump, 3rd best 3-cone drill, and 4th best pSPARQ. So is this a shocker like Jordy Nelson's speed is deceptive?

    Moreover, doesn't scrambling only happen when the OL protection breaks down? So what's the point of bringing up PFF's OL rankings like you did above? Maybe you also have to consider the opposing DL's rating, which the Redskins, Chiefs, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers rank highly in. Although I get the feeling you would think Ryan Kerrigan and Joey Bosa are overrated.


    Or maybe Wilson's passing stats are great because he plays in the easiest division in football, i.e. the same thing you knock Luck for? The NFC West combined for 23 wins last year compared to the AFC South's 29, a combined point differential of -223 vs -109, a combined SRS of -18.6 vs -4.6.

    You note that the Seahawks failed to make the playoffs in 2011 without Wilson but with Lynch and the LOB, but don't mention that they played in the divisional round the year before, the same playoffs that featured the "Beast Quake". The Seahawks have reached the Super Bowl twice having the number 1 defense (in yards) and Lynch rushing for over 1200 yards, and fail to do so the season they have the number 1 defense but with Lynch only rushing for 400 yards. They win the SB when the defense knocks the opposing offense out of the game early, and lose when Wilson is asked to win the game on his final drive. Meanwhile, the Colts are 43-27 in games with Luck since 2012 and 8-9 without him, or 10-23 when adding 2011 as you're wont to do with the Seahawks. That looks to me as if you've been doing a whole lot of cherry picking to reach your conclusions.

    "Defensive players have little to do with a QB's passing stats" is wrong as well. For one, if the team is playing with the lead it is a whole lot easier to call passing plays, because it's much less obvious for the opposing defense to know whether to expect run or pass, unlike when an offense is down in points, especially late in the game. That allows for plenty of play action, i.e. the statistically most effective passing play in football. Secondly, a defense that consistently gives their QB a short field obviously makes it easier for him to lead scoring drives. The Seahawks had the 7th, 3rd, 3rd, 9th, and 10th best average starting field position in the years 2012-16.

    Finally, why would you even compare Wentz to Luck and Prescott to Wilson? What could be the reason for that? Because it seems to me like last season, Prescott was the one with overwhelming success on offense. He threw for 23 TDs compared to Wentz's 16, whereas in 2012-2014 Luck threw for 86 TDs compared to Wilson's 72. The Cowboys offense finished 5th in yards in 2016, compared to the Eagles 22nd, whereas the Colts finished 6th in passing yards in the years 2012-14 combined, and the Seahawks 28th. If Wentz finds success in the playoffs this year on the strength of his defense, his scrambling ability, and his ability to make critical plays, I'm really looking forward to you telling us how much he is not like Russell Wilson, and how you have to adjust your projections to accommodate for that.
    Mic drop gif here.

  10. #9
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    Sometimes I don't want to come on PSD because QB_Eagles takes all my reasoning for ever needing to post away.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  11. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    How is it possible to make these two arguments in the same comment, apparently without irony? You think Wentz's numbers are inflated because he has the greatest offensive line in the game and then criticize "the sports media" for thinking Prescott's numbers are inflated because he has has the greatest offensive line in the game.

    There's probably some bias going on as you say you've been following Dak since his college days.


    How is it a shocker? Wentz has demonstrated his athleticism and running ability in college. Among all QBs at the 2016 Combine, he had the 2nd best 40 yard dash, 2nd best broad jump, 3rd best 3-cone drill, and 4th best pSPARQ. So is this a shocker like Jordy Nelson's speed is deceptive?

    Moreover, doesn't scrambling only happen when the OL protection breaks down? So what's the point of bringing up PFF's OL rankings like you did above? Maybe you also have to consider the opposing DL's rating, which the Redskins, Chiefs, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers rank highly in. Although I get the feeling you would think Ryan Kerrigan and Joey Bosa are overrated.


    Or maybe Wilson's passing stats are great because he plays in the easiest division in football, i.e. the same thing you knock Luck for? The NFC West combined for 23 wins last year compared to the AFC South's 29, a combined point differential of -223 vs -109, a combined SRS of -18.6 vs -4.6.

    You note that the Seahawks failed to make the playoffs in 2011 without Wilson but with Lynch and the LOB, but don't mention that they played in the divisional round the year before, the same playoffs that featured the "Beast Quake". The Seahawks have reached the Super Bowl twice having the number 1 defense (in yards) and Lynch rushing for over 1200 yards, and fail to do so the season they have the number 1 defense but with Lynch only rushing for 400 yards. They win the SB when the defense knocks the opposing offense out of the game early, and lose when Wilson is asked to win the game on his final drive. Meanwhile, the Colts are 43-27 in games with Luck since 2012 and 8-9 without him, or 10-23 when adding 2011 as you're wont to do with the Seahawks. That looks to me as if you've been doing a whole lot of cherry picking to reach your conclusions.

    "Defensive players have little to do with a QB's passing stats" is wrong as well. For one, if the team is playing with the lead it is a whole lot easier to call passing plays, because it's much less obvious for the opposing defense to know whether to expect run or pass, unlike when an offense is down in points, especially late in the game. That allows for plenty of play action, i.e. the statistically most effective passing play in football. Secondly, a defense that consistently gives their QB a short field obviously makes it easier for him to lead scoring drives. The Seahawks had the 7th, 3rd, 3rd, 9th, and 10th best average starting field position in the years 2012-16.

    Finally, why would you even compare Wentz to Luck and Prescott to Wilson? What could be the reason for that? Because it seems to me like last season, Prescott was the one with overwhelming success on offense. He threw for 23 TDs compared to Wentz's 16, whereas in 2012-2014 Luck threw for 86 TDs compared to Wilson's 72. The Cowboys offense finished 5th in yards in 2016, compared to the Eagles 22nd, whereas the Colts finished 6th in passing yards in the years 2012-14 combined, and the Seahawks 28th. If Wentz finds success in the playoffs this year on the strength of his defense, his scrambling ability, and his ability to make critical plays, I'm really looking forward to you telling us how much he is not like Russell Wilson, and how you have to adjust your projections to accommodate for that.
    Insert Mortal Combat "Finish Him" voice here.

    PROCESSING

  12. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    Sometimes I don't want to come on PSD because QB_Eagles takes all my reasoning for ever needing to post away.
    I aspire to be as articulate and able to write like him. Him and TA3 from cubs forum are 2 of the best.

  13. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    Insert Mortal Combat "Finish Him" voice here.
    Fatality!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  14. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    Fatality!
    Total*



    God I miss that game.

    PROCESSING

  15. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Young$avage View Post
    Wentz wasn't anywhere near as touted as Andrew Luck.
    Yeah Andrew Luck was really touted as the next great QB. He's been good, but he hasn't been healthy enough or had a good enough team around him to really claim that yet. Wentz was highly touted too, but Goff was taken over him whereas Luck was the consensus #1 pick.

    I still don't mind the comparison, though, and it is one I've thought of quite a bit in terms of how you have a top of the draft QB vs a middle of the draft QB who both end up looking really good. It's interesting.

    Honestly, though, these Prescott v. Wentz comparisons are difficult because both QBs are just so good right now. At least before we could say well Prescott has the stats but could regress and Wentz has the potential even if his numbers aren't great. Now that Wentz is playing elite football in his second year and Prescott has continued to play well too there is really no good argument to be made IMO. Both are studs.

  16. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    Total*



    God I miss that game.
    I have a coin operated arcade one.

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