Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 24 of 37 FirstFirst ... 14222324252634 ... LastLast
Results 346 to 360 of 549
  1. #346
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    A Firehouse
    Posts
    26,333
    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Well it's an offseason plan. I'm not assuming everything will happen. I'm making what I think are reasonable projections for moves I'd like to see made.

    You're 100% right that the Mets could decline Blevins for Castro. But my rationale for thinking that they would accept is that they have a terrible IF situation. Blevins at $7M is kind of expensive for a reliever and Castro at $8.6M is a solid value I think. He gives them a multi-year solution on the IF compared to 1 year of a reliever. I think it fits their roster needs well. They might decline of course but again, I think it's a reasonable idea.

    I don't think moving Ells will be a problem as I've stated. He's still a 2-3 WAR player. If he were a FA he would EASILY get $5M. So if we pay him down to that I don't think it would be an issue to move him. The big obstacle would actually be his NTC which might shut him off to certain teams. But then again, would he want to be a 5th outfielder here over starter somewhere else? I think not. But he's not a bad player... he's just overpaid. So if we pay him down to $5M he's a bargain and will be easy to move, IMO.

    Avila could get a starting job somewhere but his games started at catcher by year are 72 last year, 52 in '16 and 43 in '15. He was a starter before that but the last 3 years he's been a backup. And when he was available at the deadline last year no one traded for him to be a starter so he ended up as a backup in CHI after being acquired. So I think the plan I proposed that had him starting 72 games is a fair offer for what I project out there and like you said, the money is in line with projections. Again, you're 100% correct that someone could offer him a full time gig or even more money. In which case we don't land him. But again, I think it's a reasonable projection.

    In regards to Moose, he could get more too. And I don't have an unlimited price tag on him. But at what he's projected to get, which I used in my plan above, I think it's a fair value. Obviously he could get more and then the plan adjusts accordingly.



    At the deadline last year, if you remember, the Yankees actually checked in on Brad Hand and Justin Wilson, left handed relief aces that were available at the time. If you look at our bullpen, Shreve is the only lefty outside of Chapman. He was tough on lefties last year, but historically he isn't really a "lefty specialist" his value comes from the fact that he's a lefty who can pitch to righties too. I think we would be better off with a specialist since with our BP depth we don't really need the guy who can face righties too. So I looked at Blevins as a guy who can upgrade that specialized role.

    I'm also totally fine keeping Schreve. Part of this move was just the Castro stuff (which I'll explain more below). With signing Moose that removed 3B as a path for Torres or Andujar to play more, which is important to me like it is you. I like Moose a lot more than Castro though (not a big Castro fan). With upgrading there and Bird likely to upgrade 1B over the season, I was ok with moving Castro to free up that playing time.



    I've said all offseason that I don't think Castro will be moved and Torres will start at AAA. But just with me projecting to sign Moose I thought it upgraded us enough to where we can make that move and be OK. It's kind of a full roster puzzle.



    I totally agree with not spending just to spend. And I don't think I did that. Maybe you disagree. But I felt I outlined why it made long-term and short-term sense. I explained how I thought there was still ample opportunity for the young guys short and long-term.

    And again, it's a plan. Obviously you adjust if things go wrong. If Moose makes too much then you pass. And that would set the domino that I probably keep Castro, which means no Blevins which means Shreve stays and then Torres plays 3B instead of 2B. Or maybe Andujar to 3B, Torres to 2B Castro to DH. Or maybe you dump Headley to keep Frazier in that case because you like him as a 3B better. And then still move Maybe Otani doesn't sign so you bring back CC instead.

    I could go on and on and on and on and on with the what-ifs like that. I could make a what-if flowchart like you've never seen before. It's obvious in any offseason plan that that's the case. It's a discussion forum though so it was just a post of a cohesive long-term plan I'd like to see come together. Obviously you'd have to adjust if certain things don't happen. But it's not like I'm projecting Moose or Avila to take the minimum or to trade Castro for the #1 prospect in baseball. Everything I said is definitely realistic IMO, even if it ends up wrong.
    Don't worry about him. Posters, myself included enjoy reading your posts.

  2. #347
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    3,513
    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Well it's an offseason plan.

    No.. Sorry to say but that is not a real offseason plan.. that is a detail dream list... an offseason plan would be more like this:

    Needs: LH reliever.. Targets.. Blevins and {fill in other names as needed}...etc
    Try to move Ells and get as much money freed up as possible
    check in with Moose on where he stands. Consider signing if price is right.
    See if you can find a taker for Castro...If so move torres into 2nd
    etc....

    When you start saying that you will trade player X to Team A for Player Y... That's not a plan.. but a dream. Plans are more generic.. talking specifics like the castro trade... just don't work.. they are not a real plan.. but a specific want.. and in reality.. those normally don't work at all.. unless you're planning your favorite video game.

    A real plan would be to try to get player X from Team A.. but at the planning stages.. your not putting names in yet. Moreso if you have things tied together.. like moving Castro for Blevings but only if you can sign Moose... The moment you said castro for Blevins.. you've moved from planning into dream land..

    Now.. as for the details you put here.. Getting Moose will probably take your entire free budget.. I rate that as doubtful... (I'm not high on him anyway.. but that's another issue)
    Whether you like castro or not.. He's still a damn find 2nd baseman.. and until Torres proves he's ready.. it would be foolish to move him unless someone offered you something that you just couldn't say no to...
    Just because you don't like Torres at 3rd.. does not mean the guy won't become a perennial all-star at the position either.

    Be patient.. I think you were one advocating for Judge and Sevy to be moved last offseason because they "Were done"... (I know there were quite a few who were.. I'm not going back and re-reading posts)
    Well, if you were.. we all know how that worked out... Thank God that Brian Cashman does not solicite advice from here.. They are the two players up for any awards this year... who saw that coming? ( hint.. NOT ME.. but I did feel they both would become good players in time.. I didn't expect that time to be 2017)

    Let things play out before you give up on guys.. You seem to be one of them that gives up really easily.. This ain't the Pats.. you can't always get your way... (Of course, Brady will retire soon and then they'll get what they deserve too.. LOSING (sorry... HATE THE PATS EVEN MORE THAN THE RED SOX... always have even when they were losing))
    My 3 Favorite teams...
    1. The NY Yankees
    2. The Colorado Rockies
    3. Whoever is playing the Red Sox tonight!

  3. #348
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Maryland
    Posts
    22,215
    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    I think they changed it so you only give up like a 4th. I don't think that's a big factor anymore.
    Yup, no one is going to care about losing a 4th for any half decent FA.

  4. #349
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,557
    Quote Originally Posted by RCSownsU View Post
    Don't worry about him. Posters, myself included enjoy reading your posts.
    Agreed. Bfrap takes **** way too seriously and literal.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  5. #350
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Rhode Island
    Posts
    31,629
    Quote Originally Posted by bfrap View Post
    No.. Sorry to say but that is not a real offseason plan.. that is a detail dream list... an offseason plan would be more like this:

    Needs: LH reliever.. Targets.. Blevins and {fill in other names as needed}...etc
    Try to move Ells and get as much money freed up as possible
    check in with Moose on where he stands. Consider signing if price is right.
    See if you can find a taker for Castro...If so move torres into 2nd
    etc....

    When you start saying that you will trade player X to Team A for Player Y... That's not a plan.. but a dream. Plans are more generic.. talking specifics like the castro trade... just don't work.. they are not a real plan.. but a specific want.. and in reality.. those normally don't work at all.. unless you're planning your favorite video game.

    A real plan would be to try to get player X from Team A.. but at the planning stages.. your not putting names in yet. Moreso if you have things tied together.. like moving Castro for Blevings but only if you can sign Moose... The moment you said castro for Blevins.. you've moved from planning into dream land..
    Listing a million names doesn't mean squat unless you actually prioritize them. You can list 20 left handed reliever targets but you need to PLAN on eventually signing one, trading for one, or sticking with what you got. You can check in on Moose or any FA's price but eventually you need to decide on signing them or not. Same with looking for a trade. So yes, actually forecasting which combination of moves you'd like to make is 100% part of the plan. It's a little different for me as a fan on this board compared to a GM because I can't actually check in on the price or ask about trade offers so I have to make best guess estimates on what's reported. But it's still part of any plan to look at your options and prioritize your best case scenarios, AKA your "detail dream" list or "wishlist" or "what you'd like to happen" or anything else you want to call it.

    Now.. as for the details you put here.. Getting Moose will probably take your entire free budget.. I rate that as doubtful... (I'm not high on him anyway.. but that's another issue)
    I think I illustrated that it won't. Based on the detailed analysis I did we start with $28.8M to spend. I forecasted that we can move Ellsbury to free up $5M (which I've outlined why I think is reasonable - he's actually a bargain at that price because despite being overpaid he's still a solid player). That gets us up to $33.8M. Moose's MLBTR projection is $17M per year (regardless of how it's paid out the AAV would be the tax number). So Moose would take a little more than half my budget if we can execute an Ellsbury trade. Not the full amount.

    Again, maybe we can't pull that Ellsbury trade. Then you have to adjust the plan for a new combination of moves. But I do think it's a reasonable projection. And even so, there'd still be about $10M left over without an Ellsbury trade going by the $28.8M number. Granted there are other variables too. For benefits projections (I used $20M when it's often less than that to be conservative) and then arbitration projections (not guaranteed but usually pretty accurate). And then obviously there's what Moose signs for. My Castro for Blevins trade additionally opened up $1.6M which is another variable element. But again, I think all of the parts to my plan are reasonable assumptions. If I'm wrong on them you need to adjust accordingly. That's part of building a plan though like I said, especially when all things are interrelated like building a team.

    [QUOTE]Whether you like castro or not.. He's still a damn find 2nd baseman.. and until Torres proves he's ready.. it would be foolish to move him unless someone offered you something that you just couldn't say no to... [/QUOTE

    I've argued that same point many times here. However, what changed my stance on that in this plan was that I added Moose. Adding him to 3B made me comfortable moving on from Castro to open up time for Torres at 2B (w/ Andujar DHing). It's a balance of wanting proven commodities but also opening up time for youngsters. I'm too confident in Torres to want to keep both Castro at 2B and Moose at 3B. I prefer Moose to Castro by a great deal. I'm not a Castro guy at all though. His D rates poorly and he's too streaky at the plate (lots of bad ABs, IMO).

    Just because you don't like Torres at 3rd.. does not mean the guy won't become a perennial all-star at the position either.
    Where did I say I don't like Torres at 3B? I'm fine with him there. I just don't view Castro as a guy I like to keep long-term. He's a good enough player but not someone I want here as a core piece. And that will open up 2B. If Torres is there we can get some more power at 3B which is why I'd like Torres as the 2B long-term. But if the chips fall that he has to play 3B that works for me too. It's all about what happens around him to determine where his best fit is for us.

    Be patient.. I think you were one advocating for Judge and Sevy to be moved last offseason because they "Were done"... (I know there were quite a few who were.. I'm not going back and re-reading posts)
    Well, if you were.. we all know how that worked out... Thank God that Brian Cashman does not solicite advice from here.. They are the two players up for any awards this year... who saw that coming? ( hint.. NOT ME.. but I did feel they both would become good players in time.. I didn't expect that time to be 2017)
    I never wanted them traded. I didn't believe they were gonna hack it though... Judge's swing had too many holes IMO and Severino didn't seem to have enough pitches to be a starter. I wasn't forecasting that they'd pan out BUT as we were a rebuilding team I was a full advocate of giving them a chance.

    I do also believe that you need to be objective. If you have a player with perceived value but you think it's overhyped you should cash in. An example is when we supposedly missed out on Zobrist rental over including Refsnyder. He was a trash player and if we had been able to recognize that we could have sold while he had value and been better off.

    And I recognize how hard that is and the potential for misjudges. But that's part of the game. If you always wait for the results to prove themselves you're gonna miss out on value like that Ref scenario.

    In the case of Judge/Severino, my stance was that because of those perceived flaws, they had so little value in trades that we would be selling low. So there would be no sense in not giving them a chance to sink or swim. And luckily for us they swam all the way across the ocean. If someone had offered me huge value for either I would have sold though, yes. And I'd have been wrong. But there are other times where you're going to be wrong holding onto a prospect just for the sake of "wait and see" even if you aren't sold. You just gotta be objective and try to be right a lot more than you're wrong.

    Let things play out before you give up on guys.. You seem to be one of them that gives up really easily..
    I don't understand which player in any plan I've posted I've given up on. I just have no idea where you're getting that from. I gave Castro, Frazier and Andujar regular gigs for 2018. I swapped out Castro but it was for what I think is a clear upgrade in Moose (since keeping both would have blocked Torres more than I want to).

    The only player you could say I gave up on was Frazier in 2019 where I said I'd sign Harper for LF and then, IF FRAZIER CAN'T PLAY CF, I'd move him for pitching since we'd be set in the corners. But Harper is the #2 position player in the game so I don't think that's unreasonable to be willing to make moves to accommodate adding him. But obviously we have to wait and see. Maybe his price is super unreasonable beyond our imaginations, maybe he gets hurt, maybe Frazier is the next Mike Trout at the plate. Can't be 100% on anything over a year away but you can develop a preliminary plan.

    This ain't the Pats.. you can't always get your way... (Of course, Brady will retire soon and then they'll get what they deserve too.. LOSING (sorry... HATE THE PATS EVEN MORE THAN THE RED SOX... always have even when they were losing))
    I thought Jimmy was the guy to keep it going beyond Brady but even if he was it just didn't time up right. We'll see how they do in the next few drafts. If they find a good QB no reason they can't keep rolling. But that's pretty hard to do obviously.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  6. #351
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    3,513
    Have to say, hugepatsfan's off-season plan looks pretty solid.

    The Yankees are in a very weird spot right now; Ohtani would give us three front-end starters to ride towards a World Series but, as we should all be plainly aware of right now, the team needs high-contact and high-obp guys to be on base when Judge/Sanchez/Bird come up to bat.

    My main concern is the I think Moustakas is the same caliber player as Castro; wasted potential with a lessened ceiling. I would like to see the Yankees find a more stable, long term solution to second and third base.

    We all know what the dream scenario (and $300MM payroll) looks like; but I doubt that is realistic.

    I would say for 2018 we stand pat on the IF and see what Torress and Andujar have to offer and then look to the Free-Agent class of 2019 to fill in the holes.

    If Torres takes over second base, we let Castro walk and find a third base alternative.

    If Frazier settles into the Majors successfully while Judge keeps launching...then Harper is suddenly not so important a future signing.

    Basically, the Yankees need to firm up the rotation (Ohtani and the kids do that) and see what we have in the rest of the position prospects.

    Still think this team is targeted for a 2019 or 2020 Championship.

    But clearly, the raw stuff is there to make a deep run.
    We’re pointing out that these statistics breed false narratives, and we value the truth. This isn’t about replacing old numbers with new numbers, or attempting to dissuade anyone from enjoying the aesthetics of the game. It is simply about telling the average fan about the reality of what actually happened on the field. The “Holy Trinity” of baseball statistics fail at this most basic task, and so they are not worth deifying any longer. - Dave Cameron

  7. #352
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    5,062
    I'd put Castro at 3B and put Torres at 2B, whether he starts the season there or not. If not, I'd go with Wade / Torreyes platoon until mid-season when he is ready. Headley is the backup for 1B and 3B. I'd be OK with Moose, or not, and shuffling the plan as needed by trading Castro, etc.

    I'd trade Ellsbury and go with a 4 man OF rotation with Judge getting the most playing time and Gardner the second most by a slight margin over the other two, since he is the team's primary leadoff hitter. I like Avila as a backup catcher, but wouldn't go more than $5 million - $6 million for the position.

    Even though he will probably start out batting ninth, I think Torres will be a top of the order contact hitter in 2019 like a Derek Jeter. If Gardy is gone in '19, I see him leading off; if not batting second when Gardner plays. It would be good to get him in the lineup in '18 while Gardner is still here so he can gradually assume that role by playoff time.

    Otani is the key to the entire offseason success. Every other move is pretty much immaterial to that one.

  8. #353
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Cold Spring, NY
    Posts
    2,454
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyi View Post
    Interesting fact is that there are 32 teams, but a very low and rapidly declining number of pitchers with 200 innings pitched (15 in all of MLB. This means that less than half the league have a workhorse on their staff.

    One of his accomplishments this year is that Severino is one of the 15.


    I know I'm late to the dance ( I do have a life), but there's two problems with your post. First off, there's 30 MLB teams, not 32. Secondly, Severino did not pitch 200 innings. How is he on the list?
    The REAL DEAL Yankee fan

  9. #354
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Rhode Island
    Posts
    31,629
    Quote Originally Posted by YANKSGUY View Post
    I know I'm late to the dance ( I do have a life), but there's two problems with your post. First off, there's 30 MLB teams, not 32. Secondly, Severino did not pitch 200 innings. How is he on the list?
    They thought they'd be able to sneak that one by you. Sad!


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  10. #355
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,557
    Lol

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  11. #356
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Somewhere within the transmutation of Yin and Yang
    Posts
    22,792
    Quote Originally Posted by YANKSGUY View Post
    I know I'm late to the dance ( I do have a life), but there's two problems with your post. First off, there's 30 MLB teams, not 32. Secondly, Severino did not pitch 200 innings. How is he on the list?
    You do have a life but the rest of us, all have working and usable penises




    You see what you want to see and you hear what you want to hear.

  12. #357
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    5
    Who do you guys think we will most likely sign in free agency?

  13. #358
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    3,513
    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post


    I thought Jimmy was the guy to keep it going beyond Brady but even if he was it just didn't time up right. We'll see how they do in the next few drafts. If they find a good QB no reason they can't keep rolling. But that's pretty hard to do obviously.
    I get the feeling that Belichek is probably planning on leaving when Brady does... He's not that young anymore... losing him will be worse than Brady... Guys will stop beating a path to their door..
    My 3 Favorite teams...
    1. The NY Yankees
    2. The Colorado Rockies
    3. Whoever is playing the Red Sox tonight!

  14. #359
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    3,513
    Quote Originally Posted by The JUDGE View Post
    Who do you guys think we will most likely sign in free agency?
    Free Agency: After Otani, I would not be surprised to see the Yanks sign nobody. Right now they have just so much talent right on the edge of the bubble and the desire to drop the salary.. they may just wait until next year to worry about UFA's..

    That said.. they might take a flyer on a guy to DH... maybe play some position.. but with Bird showing that he's back... Torres about to crack the IF somewhere.. Andujar is still a defensive question mark, but his offense is ready.. he may just become that DH... unless he can push Headley out. Pitching, they have 4 slots filled and a ton of really close to ready talent (not to mention Otani) as options...

    I'd like to see them move Ellsbury.. but beyond that... I'm just not that worried.. this team looks pretty good to go forward.

    No, the biggest hole this team has is the Manager and his coaching staff... beyond that, this team could be pretty much called ready to go...

    I expect that beyond who will coach, we'll just get Rule V bad news on how we're losing a bunch of guys.
    Last edited by bfrap; 11-08-2017 at 05:19 PM.
    My 3 Favorite teams...
    1. The NY Yankees
    2. The Colorado Rockies
    3. Whoever is playing the Red Sox tonight!

  15. #360
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    732
    Quote Originally Posted by The JUDGE View Post
    Who do you guys think we will most likely sign in free agency?

    I would say otani or cc in that order
    and then maybe a veteran DH on a 1 yr deal

Page 24 of 37 FirstFirst ... 14222324252634 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •