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  1. #511
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotdalton18 View Post
    Lmaooo what??

    You'd rather face the Cavs then the Celtics WITHOUT Kyrie? What drugs are you on ?

    Not to mention even if you could outplay the Cavs the NBA isn't gonna let them lose

    But yeah your on drugs

    Celtics without Kyrie is a 5 game W for anybody who gets them
    When the Celtics get Hayward back and Kyrie, they're going to the Finals year after year. Only chance to knock them out really is now with Kyrie sidelined. I've heard different timelines for his return. I'll stand by my comment and prefer to face the Cavs than the Celtics. Celtics play great defense with Brown, Tatum, Smart and even Horford. Meanwhile Cleveland is consistently towards the bottom of the league in terms of defensive stats and ratings. We have a hard time scoring sometimes and I rather play a bad defensive team where we can score in bunches at times and go on runs and trust our defense to play up to that teams better offense. If you think anyone is knocking BOS out in 5 games, you're the one trippin'.
    BRUH

  2. #512
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    This is the same team that just struggled to beat the Hawks. Let that sink in.

  3. #513
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    You gave a detourr argument to avoid directly addressing the issue...
    "Detour argument?" Do you even understand the methodology behind plus minus models? Or are you just blindly centering your argument around them because you think it validates the concept that Whiteside is misleadingly good?

    Let's get one thing out of the way, conventional plus-minus itself is first and foremost rooted in looking at how a team performs with a particular player on/off the court. So, it should come as no surprise that even proponents of plus/minus ALL come to the same conclusion: The performance of the team around a player will actually have a GREATER impact on a particular player's plus/minus score than HIS OWN ACTIONS. All other plus-minus models are derivatives of each other.

    SN: Do yourself a favor and re-read my preceding response to you.

    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    We're not talking about a singular night here. We're talking about a season worth of averages. Not it's not a perfect stat or does not give a direct correlation, but does provide some sort of baseline for overall team performance when said player is on the floor. Miami simply doesn't perform well when he's on the floor.
    You're not understanding. It's not even that it isn't a "perfect metric." There is no "perfect model" to calculating wins. It is that plus minus models have been observed to yield VERY LOW consistency year-to-year, the lowest in fact amongst metrics that are alleged to correlate to wins. Take for example shooting efficiency... Shooting efficiency is perhaps the most erratic raw statistic. But even it is not as inconsistent as BPM or APM (advanced metrics).

    Let's examine Kevin Durant for instance, if we exclude his rookie season (where KD was a terribly inefficient shooter), we see that the four seasons following his rookie campaign he consistently had a true shooting mark in the highest fringes of the upper .500s or very low .600s, for an average mark of .596 for those four seasons. It was a CONSISTENT pattern, and one that did not deviate too greatly one year from the other. The last six seasons, from 2012-13 through present, Durant has consistently had a true shooting mark right around or only slightly greater than .633, so on the high end of the confidence interval Durant (years 2012-13 to present) has had a true shooting mark in the moderately low to mid .600s. On the low end of the confidence interval, Durant (years 2008-09 to 2011-12) had a mark in the very high .500s/very low .600s. So we can break the consistency of Durant's shooting into two phases of his career. A young KD developing and ESTABLISHING himself as one of the great scorers in our game. And a veteran KD fully established as one of the great scorers in our game.

    That said, you don't see that type of consistency reflected with plus minus models. This is why plus minus models do a pi$$ poor job of predicting the outcome of FUTURE games (i.e., wins). And while a player's ability to score effectively/efficiently, etc has low explanatory power on its own (as correlated to wins), it is predictive. We typically know that an efficient scorer will be efficient from one night to the next (safe for a few blips in the year). Same is true of a bad shooter. A good rebounder vs a bad rebounder, etc. Even someone who is injury prone (Derrick Rose) vs someone who is not at the same position (Russell Westbrook) is fairly predictive based on the sample data.

    The thing is, we know what correlates to wins: 1. Efficient offense (low number of missed shots, low number of turnovers), 2. Minimizing the efficiency of the other team (by closing out on shooters, and keeping them from getting inside the lane), and 3) Generating possessions off missed shots (rebounds), turnovers (steals, offensive fouls, forcing lane violations, defensive pressure, etc). It's just that there's no way to measure their impact on winning without first assigning individual numerical value. Personally, I feel that positional win score and wins produced, and win shares have the most accurate methodology, not only are they entirely predicated on box score data, but they have strong explanatory power relative to wins and are consistent in assessing player performance year-to-year.

    But unlike you, I'm not really interested in making this an argument about Dean Oliver's win shares, Dave Berri's wins produced, or John Hollinger's PER (all three of which suggest Whiteside is several standard deviations above the league average). This was strictly an argument about what Whiteside does on the court, and how he does relative to the average player at his position. And the sample data suggests he has been very good. If you refuse to see the evidence that is staring you in the face. I really don't know what to tell you.

    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    You also completely avoided addressing VORP for the most part.
    Honestly, I didn't avoid anything. I would have thought that based off my position on plus-minus you would have understood why I summarily kept from beating a dead horse. Hint: If you were actually familiar with plus-minus methods, you'd know VORP is a direct derivative of BPM. (The formula for VORP = [Player BPM – (-2.0)] * (% of minutes played)*(team games/82)].)

    The value that a particular player contributes relative to the average replacement level player (measuring wins over replacement level) is essential in gauging how valuable a particular contract is. But first the methodology has to be CONSISTENT in order to be able to calculate how many wins that particular player produces relative to the average replacement level player. And based off both the wins produced and the win shares models, Whiteside is not only several standard deviations above average on a per minute basis. He's SEVERALFOLD MORE productive than the average replacement level player. If he were playing more minutes (when healthy), he'd contribute more wins.

    That said, naturally, young players like Bam Adebayo (who is also quite productive, though not nearly as much as Whiteside per minute), is a better value contract (if you play him heavy minutes). Because he is cheaper! So while his per minute production would equal out to fewer wins if both were getting minutes on a team. Adebayo for now would be the more valuable contract. Same goes for Jokic and other good young bigs on cheap rookie deals. Duh... Whiteside was such a contract when he first signed with Miami. Then he got payed.

  4. #514
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dré View Post
    Let's get one thing out of the way, conventional plus-minus itself is first and foremost rooted in looking at how a team performs with a particular player on/off the court. So, it should come as no surprise that even proponents of plus/minus ALL come to the same conclusion: The performance of the team around a player will actually have a GREATER impact on a particular player's plus/minus score than HIS OWN ACTIONS.

    You're creating a lot of filler fluff argument, but based on the above quoted portion, you're actually demonstrating exactly the point I'm making about BPM, VORP, and Whiteside specifically.

    You're counter-argument is that BPM shows little towards Whiteside's individual value and speaks more to how his teammates around him are performing at the time. Except.... that's EXACTLY what I'm actually saying. Get it now?

    Whiteside's style of play is not an effective benefit for his teammates, and thus the overall team performance goes down when he's on the floor on most nights. It doesn't matter if a guy can put up 20/10 every night if the team is losing or gets worse when he's out there. Would you rather have 1 guy performing exceptionally and 4 mediocre or below average? Or 5 players performing good overall, but none exceptionally? It's basic common sense.

  5. #515
    hotdalton18's Avatar
    hotdalton18 is offline Jags&Heat&Dodgers&Gators
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    Miami HEAT Game Thread 2017/18 Season

    Is Winslow really turning into a good player ??

    N anybody peep DJJ having 10 points in 12 minutes last game?

    I really like his potential...only 21...a top recruit in HS and a good freshmen at UNLV...just came out to early

    I hope he's more apart of the main rotation next season



    2015-16 DPOY


    Hassan Whiteside

  6. #516
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    its gonna be a few exciting last games here in the reg season.On one hand i want the cavs in the first round to ensure we atleast get to see wade vs bron in the playoffs one time and perhaps even see us winning that series. On the other hand i dont want to lose in the first round and feel like celtics and sixers are much easier for us

  7. #517
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    This is the same team that just struggled to beat the Hawks. Let that sink in.
    And smacked the Cavs and locked LeBron up. Then smacked the Hawks by 30 the next night on their home court.
    RIP lol, please!

    8/1/2011 - 01/28/2018

    You may not be with us anymore but your name, legacy, and what you stood for will last forever!

  8. #518
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    Heat are 12-1 at home since getting Wade and also have the highest scoring bench in the league.
    RIP lol, please!

    8/1/2011 - 01/28/2018

    You may not be with us anymore but your name, legacy, and what you stood for will last forever!

  9. #519
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    Quote Originally Posted by WaDe03 View Post
    Heat are 12-1 at home since getting Wade and also have the highest scoring bench in the league.
    Also 19-23 against teams over .500.

    Not saying I don't want them to win just being super realistic with expectations.

  10. #520
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    Really need Philly to beat Cleveland tonight. I know Philly is the hot team coming into the playoffs but much rather face them than Cleveland





  11. #521
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    Also 19-23 against teams over .500.

    Not saying I don't want them to win just being super realistic with expectations.
    Yea true but that's not since adding Wade. The bench has taken a nice jump and HCA seems to have improved now. I definitely think it's an improved team, just don't know where to gauge them right now. I like their chances against the other teams in the East except the Cavs and Raptors. I'm not following the Sixers hype, plus Embiid may miss a game or 2.
    RIP lol, please!

    8/1/2011 - 01/28/2018

    You may not be with us anymore but your name, legacy, and what you stood for will last forever!

  12. #522
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    Miami's best chances are Cleveland and Boston.

    Philly has frustrated the HEAT all season long and they are playing great, and would start the series at home.

    Cavs lack of defense gives us the better shot, and guys like Clarkson, Nance have no playoff experience. LeBron can only carry a team so far as we saw a few years ago in the finals. Even when he's dropping 40+ triple doubles they still lost if nobody else is contributing or they play poor defense.

  13. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    Miami's best chances are Cleveland and Boston.

    Philly has frustrated the HEAT all season long and they are playing great, and would start the series at home.

    Cavs lack of defense gives us the better shot, and guys like Clarkson, Nance have no playoff experience. LeBron can only carry a team so far as we saw a few years ago in the finals. Even when he's dropping 40+ triple doubles they still lost if nobody else is contributing or they play poor defense.
    I wouldn't mind the Cavs, just don't like our chances. Our scheme for defending LeBron is great though and I do think if they were at full health in 2016 they would've beat the Cavs in the ECF.
    RIP lol, please!

    8/1/2011 - 01/28/2018

    You may not be with us anymore but your name, legacy, and what you stood for will last forever!

  14. #524
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    Miami's best chances are Cleveland and Boston.

    Philly has frustrated the HEAT all season long and they are playing great, and would start the series at home.

    Cavs lack of defense gives us the better shot, and guys like Clarkson, Nance have no playoff experience. LeBron can only carry a team so far as we saw a few years ago in the finals. Even when he's dropping 40+ triple doubles they still lost if nobody else is contributing or they play poor defense.
    Yeah I'll take my chances vs an Embiidless Philly then LeBron in the playoffs.





  15. #525
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Baller View Post
    Really need Philly to beat Cleveland tonight. I know Philly is the hot team coming into the playoffs but much rather face them than Cleveland


    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Baller View Post
    Yeah I'll take my chances vs an Embiidless Philly then LeBron in the playoffs.
    This. Plus the NBA wants ratings, they'll do what they can to have Lebron advance.

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