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  1. #136
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    You're not getting a top of the rotation player for Brinson alone. I think its smarter to target a decent pitcher on a 3-5 year contract and bite the bullet with cost. We have enough young players to keep our salary in a comfortable position for a while. Why not go get Alex Cobb?

    It really depends on what Stearns thinks of the farm and whether or not he believes our team is a legit contender. Based on the offensive production in the second half I tend to lean towards the we were a fluke group.

    I'm actually curious what Stearns does with our minor league pitching talent, I have to believe some of those guys will get a shot soon. Maybe another starter isn't necessary.

    I think regardless of what we do we are desperate for some bullpen help. Need at least 2 more decent arms out there.

  2. #137
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    We also need to start realizing the possibility that Jimmy Nelson will most likely never be a successful major league pitcher again. I know that's a harsh assesment without having seen him throw, but I challenge you to find me one pitcher that successfully recovered from a torn labrum. If he manages to come back at all we should anticipate a major drop off.

  3. #138
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    Baseball prospectus did a labrum study back in 2012. Youíre correct that the prognosis isnít great for torn labrum guys, but they had some examples of guys who recovered from labrum injuries. Roger Clemens, curt schilling and Anibal Sanchez were some of their main comps. And I have to imagine that even in the 5 or so years since they did their article, that surgery and rehab advances have been made, espeically considering we are talking about pro athletes, who get the best of the best medical care. So I guess Iím not counting him out just yet.

  4. #139
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    Rosenthal is reporting that the brewers have had interest in signing Cain. The presumption would be that they would shop an OF if they sign Cain. It might be Brinson, but it could be a guy like Santana too. Maybe they even move two guys are that point. The OF would likely be moved for pitching help, since it appears some of the pitching this offseason may not be great values.

    I get some of the concerns surrounding Cain falling off near the end of his contract, if its a 4 or 5 year deal. But Iím not overly worried about it. Part of Cainís value is his defense, which does regress as you lose speed. But he takes such great angles and is just such a high level defender, that itís not entirely athleticism. A guy like Carlos Gomez was an athlete OFer. His routes were fine, but he made up for a lot of false steps with sheer speed and athleticism. I view Cain as more of a mike Cameron style of, where his defense should age more gracefully because of the routes and angles they take. Plus heís smart and throws it well enough to stave off major regression, unlike the Johnny damon types.

    And Cain isnít really a speed hitter either. Speed is part of his game, but heís far from Juan Pierre at the plate. Heís a relatively balanced hitter who will likely see a bit of a power surge if/when he moves away from playing 81 games at the royals park.

    Iím not saying break the bank for him, but as this offseason wears on. Itís looking more and more like there might be some guys had for decent deals. If Cain is one of those guys, Iím okay adding a proven guy like him and trading the unproven guys like Brinson and Phillips for young, controllable pitching.

  5. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Baseball prospectus did a labrum study back in 2012. Youíre correct that the prognosis isnít great for torn labrum guys, but they had some examples of guys who recovered from labrum injuries. Roger Clemens, curt schilling and Anibal Sanchez were some of their main comps. And I have to imagine that even in the 5 or so years since they did their article, that surgery and rehab advances have been made, espeically considering we are talking about pro athletes, who get the best of the best medical care. So I guess Iím not counting him out just yet.
    I thought those guys all had rotator cuff injuries, not labrum.

  6. #141
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    Everything Iím seeing says labrum for all. And you can add Chris Carpenter to the labrum success story too from what Iím reading.

    I think itís sort of a unique injury because it looks like often times thereís something more associated with a labrum tear. Itís fascinating with some of the reports. The 2004 report mentions only one success story, and it was some no name middle reliever. However, the 2012 report cites more, including guys like Clemens and schilling, who should have qualified for the 2004 report. So thereís something off with one of the data sets. But everything Iím reading seems to indicate schill and Clemens both have labrum injuries.

  7. #142
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    I guess like I've come to learn, the shoulder is considered very tricky and just what is considered a labrum injury is still very much a question mark. I've seen Clemens listed as just a rotator cuff, but also when I search for Clemens and labrum he comes up there as well.

    The Twins posted an article about Glenn Perkins (who recently had a labrum problem without a very successful recovery) and they include Roger Clemens as a success story but still only came up with a 9/67 success mark on the injury.

    Some big names that didn't recover so nicely include Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Mark Mulder, Glenn Perkins, and Michael Pineda.

    They also say that if the injury includes rotator cuff problems it increase the likelihood its a career ender, which makes sense because that would make it a more sever injury.

  8. #143
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    I think thatís the takeaway. Shoulder injuries are kind of a mystery. Kind of strange how few there actually are too.

    That being said, I think the definition of success can be tricky as well. Pineda is a good example. His numbers arenít where they were at in 2011 before the injury. But if you dive a bit deeper, his 2011 was kinda fluky. His underlying stats are very similar and if youíre a FIP believer, heís been very unlucky the last few years. His numbers could be much better. And according to fangraphs, his velocity is ticking back up closer to his preinjury velocity, the last two years heís been about a half a mph slower with his fastball. But heís throwing his fastball less and using the slider more, so that may be impacting velocity a little too. Typically when guys are rearing back and throwing fastball after fastball, they get a hair looser and gain a touch on the fastball.

    So you can argue pineada isnít neccesarily a fail too. But all in all, itís a complex injury. Itís probably safer to assume heís not gonna be a stud, but Iím not writing him off either.

    I also wonder if the cause for tear has anything to do with it. I donít know this for sure, but Iím guessing most pitchers tear their labrum from pitching, which likely indicates some sort of mechanical issue. So perhaps having to make a mechanical tweak hurts the chances of recovery and thatís why some guys arenít the same. Itís possible Nelsonís labrum was hanging on by a thread, and his slide was the last straw. Itís also possible it was a freak injury and maybe his mechanics wonít be as impacted.

  9. #144
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    That's true, the nature of his injury could very well have an impact.

    Its also possible that the way he tore it (didn't look like much to me) might mean that's its a minor tear and thus less likely to cause long term problems? I know I'm kind of shooting in the dark here but it is going to be an important consideration moving forward.

    From reading further into the Nelson injury its considered a SLAP tear (means he tore it length wise on the top of the Labrum). This is a bad diagnoses as most of the comps you list (Schilling, Clemens, Carpenter) suffered a different type of tear with more common success. Nelson also suffered a rotator cuff strain, this could be worse news, if the rotator cuff also shows significant damage the diagnoses is almost completely bleak.

    The nature of a SLAP tears also tends to mean that its from throwing wear and tear, constant strain and fraying from an overhead throwing motion causes the shoulder to be fragile. Most of the pitchers with similar injuries take at least 2 years before returning to form, with Jose Valverde being the only exception I could find.

  10. #145
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    I think you just proceed that Nelson will be what is was and if he doesn't return to form the upper minors will have plenty of options next year to replace him adequately.

    I still think we need a top of the rotation arm to make the playoffs (or compete in them), however I am not against waiting to the trade deadline and seeing if prices come down or a team drops out and some guys who aren't on the market become available.

  11. #146
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    With 2 wild cards, prices rarely come down at the trade deadline. Teams are more desperate at that point and usually give up more.

  12. #147
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    My point is that there is more to chose from because you have teams willing to shed a bigger contract like Justin Verlander last year. His price did come down, but guys like Archer, Duffy, and others with multiple years of cheaper control asking price won't. Guys like Johnny Cueto, most of the Blue Jays roatation, maybe an Oriole arm (not that they have much), Felix Hernandez, or a bunch of vets that teams drop would probably be available at the deadline for a semi low prospect haul (depending on performance and how much $ teams would eat) at the deadline.

    I think this team overachieved last year and would be hesitant about trading to much young talent and then not being in the play off hunt. I almost prefer trading big league talent for a pitcher (Santana) and am coming around to the Lorenzo Cain idea.

  13. #148
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    But thatís why you trade for the guys with control instead of trading at the deadline, where youíre more likely to get guys who are in short contracts (or bets on huge contracts that may not age well). I mean, realistically, verlander is on a 2 year deal worth $28 mill per year. He needs to be great for that contract to look good.

    Take archer for example. He has basically 4/$30 left on his contract. If we did overachieve last year and our whole team craps the bed, next offseason archer will still have 3/24 and 2/16 the year after that. Unless archer gets hurt, his contract will always be movable for assets. So itís not like we canít reset in a year or two if this group underachieves.

    Plus, thereís the 40 man roster crunch. In itself itís not a reason to make a deal, but each year we have more guys that need spots. Early reports for next year show at least 4 legit prospects we will need to protect if I remember the list correctly, along with another 1 or 2 that could blow up with big seasons. Thatís one ďflawĒ with stockpiling farm peices. If you donít package some together at some point, you risk guys being taken for pretty much nothing.

  14. #149
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    Read a report this morning that the Brewers are looking strong towards Moose and would trade Travis Shaw if they landed him and try and get pitching in return. Its would be interesting if it happens, I don't think fans would like to see Shaw traded but I can see why they'd consider it. Maybe they're considering a sell high move? And even though Shaw is much cheaper than Moose its not like we are short on cash.

    We are also still in on the Arrietta sweepstakes. I'm not as opposed to it as others, just as long as the terms of the deal wouldn't exceed 4-5 years.

  15. #150
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    I saw that report, I couldn't figure out why we would want moose, but I guess I get it if we could land a pitcher for Shaw. Probably means we are close and a trade front with a team that would prefer Shaw to Santana. Personally I'm not a huge Moustakas fan, he is pretty similar to Shaw but last year Shaw had a WAR of 4 and Moose had 1.8 while hitting 38 bombs almost doubling his career high. I would much rather go after Cain, a guess a lot would depend on the value of Shaw in a trade and what we got back.

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