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  1. #91
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    If Domingo stays healthy and plays 150 or so games again next year, I see no reason why he wouldn't get close to 30 again. He always had decent power in the minors, so it's not like this is a scooter Gennett situation where I don't think anyone saw almost 30 homers coming.

    He's probably not ever going to be a 40+ homer guy, but 25-30 should be where he sits I'd think. If it were a true over under situation, then I would probably bet the under, if only because there's a decent chance of injury. But if you guaranteed me 150 games for Domingo, I'd be tempted on the over. If they number was set 27.5, then I think I'd like the over that much better.

    The Braun bets I'd want no part of. He's just too hard to predict. To me, he's probably a 140 game max guy with absolutely no injuries. So with injuries, it's tough to be confident in anything with him.

  2. #92
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    Well I was trying to put the lines at something difficult to predict, its not supposed to be easy haha. For the record, I rarely bet but I did make out like a bandit on the Brewers win total for the season. I put $100 on them when they opened at 69.5 wins. Easy money.

    I had a similar situation winning with the Bucks win total last season. I think they opened up at something crazy like 34 wins.

  3. #93
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    I'd be happy with 25 homers from Braun because he's a high doubles guy. But two of the last three years excluding 2017 he hit 19 in 135 games and 25 in 140. So even playing 140 games and because we can all agree to expect Shaw to at least regress a tad HR wise I don't think Braun hits 30. I think Braun is a 120-130 game guy with 22 homers.

    I think like crewfan said if healthy DOmingo easily hits 23 around 28 or so. To me going forward I see Braun as more of a 2-hitter, but Brewers don't have that kind of middle of the order thumpers. Thames is a 6 hitter to me so Braun at 3, Shaw 4, Domingo 5, Thames 6 seems like a good R/L combo in the middle. Hopefully Braun can be up around .290, then not hitting 30 homers doesn't seem problematic as much for the lineup.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    I'd be happy with 25 homers from Braun because he's a high doubles guy. But two of the last three years excluding 2017 he hit 19 in 135 games and 25 in 140. So even playing 140 games and because we can all agree to expect Shaw to at least regress a tad HR wise I don't think Braun hits 30. I think Braun is a 120-130 game guy with 22 homers.

    I think like crewfan said if healthy DOmingo easily hits 23 around 28 or so. To me going forward I see Braun as more of a 2-hitter, but Brewers don't have that kind of middle of the order thumpers. Thames is a 6 hitter to me so Braun at 3, Shaw 4, Domingo 5, Thames 6 seems like a good R/L combo in the middle. Hopefully Braun can be up around .290, then not hitting 30 homers doesn't seem problematic as much for the lineup.
    I could see Shaw declining, but I don't know that it will neccesarily be in the home run numbers. He too has always been a guy with decent pop. I don't think his scouting reports ever question of whether or not he could hit it out of the park, it was whether he'd hit enough to stay in the lineup to hit 30 homers.

    To me, he's similar to Santana in that regard. I don't see any reason he can't hit 30 homers, but there may be some overall regression as a hitter.

  5. #95
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    Saw a trade suggestion on a brewers blog that proposed an interesting name. I'm not even gonna post the trade, but it was pretty one sided. But they proposed the brewers looking at whit merrifeld from Kansas City.

    KC has an interesting choice to make this offseason. A few of their core guys are headed to free agency, so they either have to decide to try to sign a couple of them, or go into a full fledged rebuild. Merrifield is still pre-arb, but he'll be 29 next year, so I doubt he's part of any future rebuild plans.

    Last year was his first full season in the majors and he hit .288/.324/.460. The year before, he was in the majors with a similar average and on base, but his slugging really jumped last year. He hit 19 bombs and stole 34 bags while playing good defense at 2nd.

    His obp is a little lower than I'd like for a leadoff guy, and his history, including minors, doesn't indicate that he'll likely start walking more. But if he maintains the average, he's more of the prototypical leadoff type that most on here want. Not sure what the cost would be to acquire him, but he's probably another target to look at for 2nd.

  6. #96
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    Any chance we attempt to sell high on Chase Anderson, he had a great year but I see him more a 4 era guy than a sub 3. I doubt we would get an ace type prospect but maybe a package with a high upside young guy and a nice prospect. I would be shocked if he is traded but I could see us learning from not trading Guerra last year. I always am trading for better talent.

    Anderson to Baltimore for Kevin Gausman and a prospect (Keegan Akin/Hunter Harvey)
    Anderson to Colorado for Ryan McMahon (play 2nd) and Jeff Hoffman
    Anderson for Willie Calhoun (play 2nd) and a mlb reliever

    I'm not sure on his value but I would assume he could get at least 1 top 100 prospect and another piece. If he pitches like last year all those would be bad trades but if he pitches like the 1st 4-5 years those seem like good deals to me.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I also think we always have a desire to trade guys while their value is high. Junior Guerra was a great example of that. We always want to get rid of a guy because we aren't sure if they'll repeat their success. Problem is, every other team probably had the same thought. I know I was guilty of that too. I said trade Guerra last year, but we have no idea what the offers were, if anyone even made an offer.

    That could very well be the case with Thames. Everyone that wants to move him wants to move him because they don't think he offered premium production at a position tha basically requires premium production. I would disagree to an extent, but the point does remain. He is likely a 2-3 win player who can have some crazy good hot stretches but can struggle when he's not, partially due to high K numbers. There's also the point that his numbers weren't as strong if you take out the first month of the season. He ended the year on a high note as well, and all in all, he was still above league average as an offensive player even if you just look at the 2nd half of the year.

    But it's not like all of those "facts" are some mystery. Other teams know about that as well. If we sell him, we are selling him with those peices of information in mind. People aren't paying for a 3-4 win player. So we have to keep that in mind as well. But if he comes out and has a stron gyear next year, people will be more willing to pay for a little more upside.

    To me, it makes sense to hold him. I know others, especially twell, are willing and very much want to give Brinson and Phillips 500-600 plate appearances and have Perez as the emergency guy if one of them really struggles. I don't like that option as much. I think if we resign walker, we could actually move on from Aguilar if we wanted, have walker and Perez soft split 2nd (walker gets like 60/40 split) then have thames and walker split first (75/25 in favor of Thames). Then have Brinson, Braun, Santana and Phillips all split the 3 OF spots. In that case, you're easily getting any one of those guys 400+ plate appearances and are protected in case of injury.
    To me, this also applies to Anderson. Whenever we want to sell high on a guy coming off a relatively unexpected career year, the offers are probably never as good as you'd think, especially the older the player is. If a 24 year old has an unexpected breakout year, it's probably more believable than a 31 year old.

    But we look at andersons stats and see some of the underlying stats dont always hold up. So we think it's unlikely he's going to repeat that performance. But if we see that, every other team sees that same stuff. If Anderson is truly that 4ish ERA guy you think he is, that's going to be the price for him. That's the same with Guerra last year too. Until he repeated that performance, the offer wasn't going to be anywhere near his performance.

    So sure, we can ship him and if someone wants to pay for him like he's a 2.75 era guy, then take the deal. But that's unlikely, unless he repeats his performance. His era by year is 3 straight years of 4+ and 1 year of 2.74. His career era sits at about 3.9. Realistically, he had upside, so a team trading for him is probably valuing him more like a 3.5 or so era guy. So at that price, I don't think I'm dealing him.

    I get the desire to want to continue trying to rebuild. But we can still have a good year next year without making any major changes. I get not wanting to sell the farm and play out this year, but I also don't want to gut the current team in hopes of the future being better. Someone would have to blow me away to trade Anderson. Worst case scenario, I just add a reliever or two and play out the season with this roster. If it blows up, then sell at the deadline.

  8. #98
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    I agree that we shouldn't sell the farm, but I think our farm system is deep enough to make 1 impact trade or a couple mid level deal that can take us to the next level. We were say 2 players (between a leadoff man, solid reliever or 2, and 1 more quality starting pitcher) from taking the division. We have some prospect that are mostly blocked like our lower level outfield talent, middle infield talent (especially if we get a new 2nd baseman) and secondary pitching talent that could be swapped for improved pieces and still leave our farm system as a borderline top 10 system.
    Last edited by jay87shot; 10-15-2017 at 11:51 AM.

  9. #99
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    I'm not sure where I stand. I seem to be swinging back and forth on what we should do. On one hand, you're correct. We could have won the division this year, but quite frankly the cubs are just a better team. Go around the field and match us up.

    Contreras is a much better catcher than pina and vogt even with a possible career year from pina. Rizzo is one of the best 1B in the league, and is better than any possible option for us at 1st. Baez is better at second. Arcia had a slightly higher war than Russell this year, but Russell had his worst year of his 3 big league seasons. So at best, SS is probably a wash. Shaw had a possible career year and he's still fairy significantly worse than Bryant. Unless schwarber breaks out, we have a fairly decent advantage in left. I give them a happ/almora platoon in center vs a Brinson/Phillips platoon. I have to give the cubs a slight advantage here, at least for the short term. And in right, Domingo is a much better hitter, but heyward closes the gap with defense. At best, we have a slight advantage in right.

    So all in all, for the 8 positions, id say the cubs have a major advantage at C, 1B, 2B, and 3B. They have a slight advantage at CF (but that's a bit unknown). SS is a wash. We have a slight advantage in RF and a major advantage in LF, but that gap likely starts to close some due to age. I mean, that's a pretty significant lineup advantage. Even if we deal for a leadoff hitter and 2B like merrifield or Gordon, we probably make 2nd a wash and the cubs still have a pretty sizable advantage.

    And if we move to pitching, it's a little harder to nail down, since both us and them will be active in free agency or trades for pitching. But they have Quintana, Lester and Hendricks under contract next year yet. Unless we make a chris archer type of deal, it's hard to envision a scenario where our starters are better than there's, esecially with Nelson hurt for likely a portion of the year.

    So all in all I'm not sure how I want to progress. We legit have a near playoff caliber roster. And in baseball, once you make the playoffs, pretty much anything can happen. So I don't want to punt this team. But I'm also realistic and think it's going to be tough to get to the level of the cubs. And the dodgers will likely still be a very good team next year.

  10. #100
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    See now you stand looking at things like I do CrewFan, with realistic expecations. Just looking over the rosters we don't come close to the Cubs. Starting pitching isn't even in the same world. We can maybe hang around or make a post-season run if the Cubs slump (unlikely) for the first half of the season and we build the strongest bullpen possible, but even if we're not just looking at the Cubs I think we matchup poorly with all the playoff teams (outside of maybe the Yankees and Rockies).

    As far as trading Anderson. I proposed looking at doing that a while back. While I don't think he's a sub 3.0 guys I think he's a solid #3 (or perhaps even #2) on a good pitching staff. The problem now is that with Jimmy Nelson up in the air, we really can't afford to start moving arms. We just don't have the depth for it. So unless we can land someone else via free agency I don't see how we could move him, can't start 4 rookies.

    My offseason outlook is for the Brewers to be fairly active. Despite our win/loss numbers from this season I'm actually a bit dissapointed because we really didn't learn anything about our youth. I think off-season we should look to do a couple of things. We need to look to free up lineup space for the players we are confident can contribute next season. I'm not sure which players those are, but IMO if they are the future we need to start getting them active, if nothing else so we can see where they stand. We need to go out and get no less than 3 decent bullpen arms. And we need to look so sign free agents (I wouldn't go for anyone on more than a 3-4 year deal) and spots of weakness. Spots of weakness for me are spots where we were less than average and I don't see much organizational depth at that position. These spots for me could be considered 1B, 2B, C, SP.

    Based on post all-star break I expect the Brewers to take a step back. I think we are a 75 win team that overperformed this year. I anticipate a little regression from Pina, Shaw, Thames, Aguilar, and Santana while we should see some progression from Braun, Villar, Arcia, CF.

    To me, the lack of starting pitching will unfortunately put as near the bottom of the central next season. I just don't see how we can compete over 162 games with only 2 real starting pitchers I have confidence in.

  11. #101
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    Here's the thing I struggle with, because I'm so on the fence to which direction to go. If we wait until we are as good as the best team in the league to go all in, we could be rebuilding forever. We are legit as good as the other wild card options. So I can't support selling guys.

    And the guys you mention for regression, most of the, outside of pina, I could argue the opposite. Santana had a breakout year with some batted ball luck, but he's also only 25 and it was the first season he's ever had more than 250 at bats. Regression in his batted ball luck, could easily be offset by slight improvements in other areas.

    If you look at Shaw, he's played in the bigs for 2.5 seasons. His 2015 half season numbers were actually somewhat similar to his numbers this year. He's was better this year, but they weren't as bad as his 2016 numbers. He's also only 27, which isn't too old by any means. It's possible we look back at shaws career in 5 years and say that 2016 was the outlier year, not 2017. Plus, there's not much in his underlying stats to indicate much regression.

    And Thames is a polarizing figure. You all say take out his first month and he's a league average hitter, which isn't acceptable for a 1B, especially one who isn't an elite defender. But you can also take out his worst month (where he had a hamstring injury), and he's in the top half of 1B for hitters, probably even in the top 10, depending which metics you prefer.

    Aguilar is in a similar boat to Santana. Young power hitter who's never been given much of a chance. With increased chances, its not surprising he performed better than his past.

    And for young guys who deserve a shot, to me, that really only applies to Brinson, Phillips and hader. Probably applies to woodruff as well. And I've already been pretty outspoken about giving Phillips and Brinson a split on center and let Phillips fill in for Braun and Santana on off days. I don't hate trying to acquire at least one starter, then give woodruff and hader the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. Or acquire 2 starters and let hader and woodruff battle for the 5th spot. If hader wins, send woody to AAA for awhile and if woody wins, then hader can reclaim his spot in the pen.

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Here's the thing I struggle with, because I'm so on the fence to which direction to go. If we wait until we are as good as the best team in the league to go all in, we could be rebuilding forever. We are legit as good as the other wild card options. So I can't support selling guys.

    And the guys you mention for regression, most of the, outside of pina, I could argue the opposite. Santana had a breakout year with some batted ball luck, but he's also only 25 and it was the first season he's ever had more than 250 at bats. Regression in his batted ball luck, could easily be offset by slight improvements in other areas.

    If you look at Shaw, he's played in the bigs for 2.5 seasons. His 2015 half season numbers were actually somewhat similar to his numbers this year. He's was better this year, but they weren't as bad as his 2016 numbers. He's also only 27, which isn't too old by any means. It's possible we look back at shaws career in 5 years and say that 2016 was the outlier year, not 2017. Plus, there's not much in his underlying stats to indicate much regression.

    And Thames is a polarizing figure. You all say take out his first month and he's a league average hitter, which isn't acceptable for a 1B, especially one who isn't an elite defender. But you can also take out his worst month (where he had a hamstring injury), and he's in the top half of 1B for hitters, probably even in the top 10, depending which metics you prefer.

    Aguilar is in a similar boat to Santana. Young power hitter who's never been given much of a chance. With increased chances, its not surprising he performed better than his past.

    And for young guys who deserve a shot, to me, that really only applies to Brinson, Phillips and hader. Probably applies to woodruff as well. And I've already been pretty outspoken about giving Phillips and Brinson a split on center and let Phillips fill in for Braun and Santana on off days. I don't hate trying to acquire at least one starter, then give woodruff and hader the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. Or acquire 2 starters and let hader and woodruff battle for the 5th spot. If hader wins, send woody to AAA for awhile and if woody wins, then hader can reclaim his spot in the pen.
    I agree with a lot if not all of this. I think the Brewers should go big into relief as you said Tweelner, probably two or three relievers to put in front of Knebel. I am not sure the starting rotation can get the Brewers to October but if so October is all about the pen. Then maybe try for a leadoff hitter.

    Also who would have expected that Albert Pujols who came up with STL to regress? Probably everyone. There are people on every team that when they came up wouldn't be expected to continue to be a quality MLBer that is in the starting lineup. I don't think all of the Brewers will maintain and some should be sell-highs but I like Domingo and Aguilar to continue their power hitting.

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