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  1. #571
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    Ummm, i think you are the one thats mistaken on slg%. If you have a lower batting average (over the same number of AB's) and the same slugging percentage as another player, it means you likely have more extra base hits. Sure its possible that the guy with the lower average hit all HR's and the guy with the higher average hit all doubles, but it isn't very likely. Chances are the guy who has generated the same amount of bases in fewer hits has more extra base hits. It isn't a certainty, but I've yet to see a player over 162 games have even 10 HRs and not a single double.


    Like I said before, no one is saying its the very best way to start an inning, just that it is a good start.

    I like most of your ideal lineup, but have to disagree with your preference for a high BA over a high OBP at the lead off position. Especially since you want your big mashers 2 thru 4. If you have mashers 2, 3 and 4 then the absolute most important thing for the lead off guy to do is to get on base. Especially if he is fast enough to score from 1B on a double. I want my best hitters hitting with guys on base as much as possible. Especially now with balls leaving the yard at an historical rate year after year.
    For some reason I was thinking SLG was total bases over hits when I made this post. There is no certainty but with it being total bases over ABs then yeah, it's more likely the lower average guy will have more XBH. Tar and feather me.

    You make a good point with the increase in HRs and I understand your logic with wanting a high OBP guy in the leadoff spot. I just couldn't be comfortable if I had a guy who hit .250 but managed to have an OBP of .350 in the leadoff spot. Even though .350 isn't a good OBP, it's unrealistic to go much more than 100 points higher. Let me explain my logic in detail.

    I was originally on the Tulo for leadoff bandwagon but when Ben Revere got slotted in there it was oh so refreshing. The reason I want a good contact hitter who doesn't strikeout and is a speedster in the leadoff spot is for two main reasons. #1 it's only the leadoff spot once and I want to score in the first inning. Yeah, a high OBP is the logical approach and if that comes with the BA and the speed then that's a bonus. If my leadoff hitter gets on base I want the pitcher to be worried about him stealing. Plain and simple. This makes it more likely for him to make a mistake when pitching to one of my best hitters. If he doesn't have speed then the pitcher can focus solely on the hitter and I don't want that. Also, if he can get himself into scoring position then that's a HUGE bonus.

    My 2nd reason relates to the #9 hitter and being a good bunter. If any of you're 7 or 8 guys get on and there's 0 outs then I want that #9 hitter to bunt the runner(s) over so my best contact hitter can come up and drive them in. If there's 1 out then the situation would have to dictate. I'm taking a page out of the NL's book but it's logical. If any of your bottom of the order guys can get on it's a bonus. You don't need a big bopper (Jose Bautista) in the leadoff spot to drive them in because more times than not there will be nobody on base. If there is though it would make more sense to have a guy who doesn't have a lot of power but solid contact to come up and drive one of them in. I want my HR hitters coming up with the best opportunity to drive in multiple runs 2,3 and 4.

  2. #572
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    Ok, but consider this then. If you want your best boppers to get chances to drive in multiple runs, then the lead off guy drawing a walk is still a good result. Then the #2 hitter is hitting with either 2 or 3 runners on with less than 2 out.

  3. #573
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    Ok, but consider this then. If you want your best boppers to get chances to drive in multiple runs, then the lead off guy drawing a walk is still a good result. Then the #2 hitter is hitting with either 2 or 3 runners on with less than 2 out.
    I never said it wasn't. I said the OBP is a bonus to me but generally a guy with a .300+ BA will be able to give you at least a .340 OBP. If I have a .300 hitter who boasts a .390 OBP that's a dream come true. I'm just saying I'd have no problem if I had a .300 hitter with a .350 OBP along with speed in the leadoff spot. My preference for a leadoff hitter is a guy who makes things happen for the reasons I stated in the post. Ben Revere in 2015 was exactly what I want out of my leadoff hitter. He's still a FA and can be had for cheap as well. Just saying.....
    Last edited by R. Johnson#3; 12-31-2017 at 12:23 PM.

  4. #574
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    I think it's being overlooked exactly how good you have to be to be a consistent .300 hitter. I don't think we had any of those guys on the team last season iirc. You can't go up there like pillar and hit .300. So a .300 guy has some patience. The difference is we want a guy who swings with a full count rather than rolling the dice on a strike out or a walk.

  5. #575
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    Ben is not the player he used to be.

  6. #576
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    In 92 and 93 the Jays had Devo as their lead off hitter followed by Alomar. So when the big boppers came to the plate the table was usually set for them. It's one of the reasons they are the last team to win the title back to back. That's why the Jays did better in 2015 once Revere arrived. There was more traffic on the base pads before JD, EE, and, JB came to the plate. That put a lot more pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense.

  7. #577
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    I still love the traditional lead off man with speed and high obp. I would trade power for obp. I’d say I would take a sub 700 ops guy as long as his obp is over 350. But that player doesn’t exist.

  8. #578
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    It's irresponsible to attribute most of 2015 success due to Revere's arrival. He was ok, but that team was underperforming by other metrics for the first half. Things were likely going to correct themselves anyway. Plus Tulo and Price showing up helped. Revere is far down on the list of reasons the 2015 team was what it was. If he's starting this upcoming year it means the team likely sucks. Twitchy and I(others I'm sure also) have pointed this out over the last two years and the same people refuse to accept it.

  9. #579
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    With the amount of free agents still out there and some big market teams avoiding the luxury tax I wonder if guys like Cain will have to accept a shorter deal. The team might be able to flex their muscle a bit. Money isn't usually the issue on FAs over 30. It's the years. I wouldn't hate the approach of paying more AAV and less years.

  10. #580
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    There arent many big names out there. i wouldnt be giving Cain anything over 2 years and i bet someone gives him more so no thanks. Martinez has a 5 year offer from the Sox and i dont know what it would take to get him in toronto instead. There are some Meh pitchers but nothing that will put us over the top. without some big trades we are competing for last in the division.

    Sell please.

  11. 01-03-2018, 04:49 AM

  12. #581
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    I wonder just how much Boston is offering Martinez. That would be a pretty nice piece to add to go behind JD. He's hit over .300 in 3 of the last 4 seasons, and the only time he didn't he hit .282 with 38 taters. He'll only be 30 this season. Give him 6 years if that's what it takes. That would give us two 40+ HR threats from the right side and two 30+ HR threat switch hitters in the heart of our order....along with Hernandez, Travis, Martin, Tulo and Pillar. All of which likely hit 15 or more if they play a full season. Travis, Donaldson and Martinez are all guys who can also hit around .300 and they'd have guys like Diaz, Pearce, Alford and Jansen either on the bench or waiting in AAA if people get hurt and have to miss time again. He is a piece that makes a lot of sense if they truly want to keep this current window open as long as possible.

  13. #582
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    I wonder just how much Boston is offering Martinez. That would be a pretty nice piece to add to go behind JD. He's hit over .300 in 3 of the last 4 seasons, and the only time he didn't he hit .282 with 38 taters. He'll only be 30 this season. Give him 6 years if that's what it takes. That would give us two 40+ HR threats from the right side and two 30+ HR threat switch hitters in the heart of our order....along with Hernandez, Travis, Martin, Tulo and Pillar. All of which likely hit 15 or more if they play a full season. Travis, Donaldson and Martinez are all guys who can also hit around .300 and they'd have guys like Diaz, Pearce, Alford and Jansen either on the bench or waiting in AAA if people get hurt and have to miss time again. He is a piece that makes a lot of sense if they truly want to keep this current window open as long as possible.
    He is the only piece that makes sense and likely the only FA that makes a dent on our playoff chances.

  14. #583
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    He is the only piece that makes sense and likely the only FA that makes a dent on our playoff chances.
    So your saying a player like Cain, Nunez, or Bruce wouldn't make our team better? Any three of those players would be a drastic improvement in our outfield over what Bautista provided last season!!!!

    At the right cost, there are players available through FA that would improve our team and in turn improve your chances in contending then the current state the team is in. On top of this, there are plenty of players that are available through trade that would be just as valuable.

    I still am not sold that the Yankees and Red Sox are that much further ahead then the Jays without any additions. Both of those teams have just as many question marks as the Jays do.

  15. #584
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daboyz View Post
    So your saying a player like Cain, Nunez, or Bruce wouldn't make our team better? Any three of those players would be a drastic improvement in our outfield over what Bautista provided last season!!!!

    At the right cost, there are players available through FA that would improve our team and in turn improve your chances in contending then the current state the team is in. On top of this, there are plenty of players that are available through trade that would be just as valuable.

    I still am not sold that the Yankees and Red Sox are that much further ahead then the Jays without any additions. Both of those teams have just as many question marks as the Jays do.
    That's exactly what I'm saying. none of those guys make a big enough contribution to the offense to change this team around. you could sign them all and be projected to come in last place.
    also management wont (nor do i want them to) trade they type of prospects necessary to bring in the type of bats to turn this ship around.

    refer back to the Dodgers and Astros for the type of lineup you need to have to compete at the highest level these days.

  16. #585
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    Dec 2009
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    There's more than one way to skin a cat. If the Jays rotation and bullpen can play to their potential, this team could make the playoffs.

    The problem is that the offense, as constructed, is real Jeckyll and Hyde. Outside of Donaldson, who can you count on to consistently produce? Tulo's done; Martin's notoriously streaky; Travis can't stay on the field; Pearce doesn't have a position; Morales could be good or could be a steaming pile of hot garbage, same goes for Smoak; Teoscar was great in September, but we all know we can't rely on him hitting for that much power all season long; Pillar can hit, but strikes out a lot and kills rallies. The list goes on and on. It's amazing that even though there's been relatively little turnover from the 2015 team to now, that they are in fact a completely different ball club, with pitching as their core strength. At the same time, if everything goes right for the group of players who make up the line-up, they could be one of the best offenses in baseball.

    This off-season has been so frustrating from the fans' perspective. The way things have played out, it's hard to imagine the front office doing anything different and I'm glad they haven't come out and said they're trading Donaldson, because that's what the Orioles did with Machado and now they have to backtrack and say they're keeping him, which is just terrible optics going into the season.

    At this point, I'm open minded about 2018. There are still a lot of players out there who could make this club better. There are also some prospects ready to graduate who could be key contributors this season (Tellez [potentially], Alford, Hernandez) and anything can happen once the season gets started. I feel like two keys to success will be the performance of Travis and whatever players graduate when spring training breaks in April.

    Another thing I've been considering is would Donaldson be willing to play first or DH if the team signs him to an extension? It would be pretty amazing to see him in the same line-up as Bichette and Vlad Jr.

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