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  1. #1366
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    Quote Originally Posted by mudvayne387 View Post
    Here's the thing. Last year many were saying that Leonard Fournette was the best RB to come out of college since AP. While I understand he plays entirely different than Barkley, he was arguably the 3rd or 4th best rookie RB this past season. The position is so unpredictable at this level that unknowns become pro bowlers almost every single season.
    Situations are a huge factor. Kamara in N.O., phenomenal fit. Hunt in a Andy Reid offense? Same. Fournette had to play on a team that was pretty shakey offensively, especially with their top WR out and Bortles being Bortles.

    I see Barkley as our Zeke. Cowboys were a better team than 4th overall but had a bad year which allowed them to add a player they shouldn't normally been able to get. Could we add a guy later and still get good results? Sure, but Barkley looks like he would dominate in this offense.

  2. #1367
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    Also, the narrative "You can find a RB JUST AS EASILY in the later rounds" is crap. Using the actual numbers, here are the percent chance that you will find a running back that is good enough to be a starter for at least half of their career by round:

    1st: 58% chance
    2nd: 25% chance
    3rd: 16% chance
    4th: 11% chance
    5th: 9% chance
    6th: 6% chance
    7th: Less than 1% chance

    So yes, you can find a quality running back in the later rounds, but your odds at getting a quality one (let alone an elite one) diminish greatly each round. I'm generally not big on drafting a RB early, however, if their is an elite prospect, he should be taken. Barkley is an elite prospect (despite what one or two people on this board may suggest). Most scouts and other draft analysts have him as the #1 graded prospect in this draft and many have him as the #1 graded RB since AP.

  3. #1368
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    Josh Jackson declared for the draft today

  4. #1369
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers211221 View Post
    Also, the narrative "You can find a RB JUST AS EASILY in the later rounds" is crap. Using the actual numbers, here are the percent chance that you will find a running back that is good enough to be a starter for at least half of their career by round:

    1st: 58% chance
    2nd: 25% chance
    3rd: 16% chance
    4th: 11% chance
    5th: 9% chance
    6th: 6% chance
    7th: Less than 1% chance

    So yes, you can find a quality running back in the later rounds, but your odds at getting a quality one (let alone an elite one) diminish greatly each round. I'm generally not big on drafting a RB early, however, if their is an elite prospect, he should be taken. Barkley is an elite prospect (despite what one or two people on this board may suggest). Most scouts and other draft analysts have him as the #1 graded prospect in this draft and many have him as the #1 graded RB since AP.
    So if you take 2 2nd round running backs and one in the 5th round you are better off than taking 1 in the 1st .

    The question is, what are those percentages for players overall and for the other positions?

    There have been a lot more all-pro WRs taken in the first than any other round in the last 30 years BY FAR, and similar things are true at other positions, but maybe you don't care if a RB is a starter for half their career, you just want to use them up and spit them out and they can ride the pine for someone else as they try to eke out a once promising career.

  5. #1370
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    I don't think the idea is to get half a career out of anyone taken top 10.

  6. #1371
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    Shanahan has never had a supreme talent at running back, but his backs have always produced. Guys like Alfred Morris, Terrence West and Isaiah Crowell. Devonta Freeman's best season was with Shanahan. They can take a RB in the 3rd or 4th round and let him compete with Joe Williams for the lead back position. Breida is more of a 3rd down, change of pace back. I really like Ito Smith from Southern Mississippi. A 5'9, shifty back that runs with power and will probably be taken in the later rounds.

    I'm looking at Courtland Sutton for their first round pick. They need a big receiver. People are comparing Sutton to Julio Jones and Dez Bryant.

  7. #1372
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    Quote Originally Posted by WestCoastSportz View Post
    Shanahan has never had a supreme talent at running back, but his backs have always produced. Guys like Alfred Morris, Terrence West and Isaiah Crowell. Devonta Freeman's best season was with Shanahan. They can take a RB in the 3rd or 4th round and let him compete with Joe Williams for the lead back position. Breida is more of a 3rd down, change of pace back. I really like Ito Smith from Southern Mississippi. A 5'9, shifty back that runs with power and will probably be taken in the later rounds.

    I'm looking at Courtland Sutton for their first round pick. They need a big receiver. People are comparing Sutton to Julio Jones and Dez Bryant.
    So you are looking at it as he can take an average back and make him good. Well, what can he do with a phenomenal back? What would a back like David Johnson be able to do in Shanny's offense? Or Bell? What would that do for our offensive line? Our Wide Receivers? Our Qb? Having a running back that FORCES the defense to focus on him? It causes mismatches all over the field. Our receivers on the outside on a play action are more often than not, going to have a lot of single coverage. Barkley out of the backfield against a linebacker? Yes please. Eat that match up all day or until they move a safety on him leaving receivers single coverage.

    Look at what Bell and Johnson did for the Steelers and the Cardinals. Cardinals didn't have a very good Qb, but he still opened up everything all over the field, and Bell is now arguably one of the best players in the NFL.

    Players like Barkley make the entire team better, in every aspect.
    Quote Originally Posted by heimdog8 View Post
    I didn't want to throw this information out here. I was a 3 year varsity starter at QB in high school. I played quarterback in junior college as well. I was considering playing division 1 football as well but chose to pursue my career in business instead. However, currently I am helping train with Derek Carr from Fresno State get ready for his pro day and the draft. I am also working with Cody Kessler, the USC quarterback.

  8. #1373
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers211221 View Post
    Also, the narrative "You can find a RB JUST AS EASILY in the later rounds" is crap. Using the actual numbers, here are the percent chance that you will find a running back that is good enough to be a starter for at least half of their career by round:

    1st: 58% chance
    2nd: 25% chance
    3rd: 16% chance
    4th: 11% chance
    5th: 9% chance
    6th: 6% chance
    7th: Less than 1% chance

    So yes, you can find a quality running back in the later rounds, but your odds at getting a quality one (let alone an elite one) diminish greatly each round. I'm generally not big on drafting a RB early, however, if their is an elite prospect, he should be taken. Barkley is an elite prospect (despite what one or two people on this board may suggest). Most scouts and other draft analysts have him as the #1 graded prospect in this draft and many have him as the #1 graded RB since AP.

    I'm not sure what Breida is (with regards to how his future projects), but I'm guessing the undrafted side is probably less than 1%... but so is Lagarette Blount.
    2009-2014. 3 World Series Championships, 2 Stanley Cup Championships, 2 NBA Championships, and a Super Bowl Appearance. 3 No-Hitters, 1 Perfect Game, 3 NFC Title Games, Jim Harbaugh, Bruce Bochy, Phil Jackson, Daryl Sutter.

    PRESENT: Lakers #2 draft pick (New GM, New President), Giants #2 draft pick (somebody better get fired), 49ers #2 draft pick (New Coach, New GM), LA Kings #11 draft pick (New Coach, New GM)

  9. #1374
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    Not really related to whats being discussed but kinda sorta. I looked at the all time rushing leaders. Most of the great RB's in NFL history last about 10-12 years? I didn't correlate what round they were taken in, but in reality, you are really looking at a 4-6 year RB...

    Is that worth a first round pick, or do you want a 10 year player like a Joe Staley type. Injuries are a part of the game and there's no way to know how long a career will last, but I just feel like taking an Iupati at 10th, and then him leaving 4 years later, is just not worth it.
    2009-2014. 3 World Series Championships, 2 Stanley Cup Championships, 2 NBA Championships, and a Super Bowl Appearance. 3 No-Hitters, 1 Perfect Game, 3 NFC Title Games, Jim Harbaugh, Bruce Bochy, Phil Jackson, Daryl Sutter.

    PRESENT: Lakers #2 draft pick (New GM, New President), Giants #2 draft pick (somebody better get fired), 49ers #2 draft pick (New Coach, New GM), LA Kings #11 draft pick (New Coach, New GM)

  10. #1375
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    Nobody is saying that we want to use a top 10 pick on a half-career starter. I think that you are missing the point. The point is that if you are looking for a quality RB (or any position), your odds are significantly higher in the first round and then decrease each round after.

  11. #1376
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    So you are looking at it as he can take an average back and make him good. Well, what can he do with a phenomenal back? What would a back like David Johnson be able to do in Shanny's offense? Or Bell? What would that do for our offensive line? Our Wide Receivers? Our Qb? Having a running back that FORCES the defense to focus on him? It causes mismatches all over the field. Our receivers on the outside on a play action are more often than not, going to have a lot of single coverage. Barkley out of the backfield against a linebacker? Yes please. Eat that match up all day or until they move a safety on him leaving receivers single coverage.

    Look at what Bell and Johnson did for the Steelers and the Cardinals. Cardinals didn't have a very good Qb, but he still opened up everything all over the field, and Bell is now arguably one of the best players in the NFL.

    Players like Barkley make the entire team better, in every aspect.
    This.

  12. #1377
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    So you are looking at it as he can take an average back and make him good. Well, what can he do with a phenomenal back? What would a back like David Johnson be able to do in Shanny's offense? Or Bell? What would that do for our offensive line? Our Wide Receivers? Our Qb? Having a running back that FORCES the defense to focus on him? It causes mismatches all over the field. Our receivers on the outside on a play action are more often than not, going to have a lot of single coverage. Barkley out of the backfield against a linebacker? Yes please. Eat that match up all day or until they move a safety on him leaving receivers single coverage.

    Look at what Bell and Johnson did for the Steelers and the Cardinals. Cardinals didn't have a very good Qb, but he still opened up everything all over the field, and Bell is now arguably one of the best players in the NFL.

    Players like Barkley make the entire team better, in every aspect.
    I'm not discounting the value of a back like Barkley, but with this team, whats more of a need? A top running back or top receiver? The 49ers have options at running back. The receiving corp is what it is which is Garcon, Goodwin, Taylor, Robinson and Murphy. Goodwin is a free agent as is Robinson. Garcon has a club option and is coming off a fracture in his neck. He'll be 32 years at the start of next season as well. I'm not sure the 49ers would pick up his option and pay him $9M next season. I'd re-sign Goodwin, but that still leaves this receiving unit very thin.

    If they do draft Barkley, he's not going to be running behind a Pro Bowl offensive line like Bell (Decastro, Pouncey and Villanueva) The Cowboys also have three pro bowlers on their line. Don't get me wrong. If they do draft Barkley, I'd be ecstatic.

  13. #1378
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    If we were just talking about the best RB in the average draft, I wouldn't be advocating to draft them. If you have time on your hands, go back and look at past year draft threads and you will see that I don't promote drafting first round RBs. However, I think that Barkley is special.

  14. #1379
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    Quote Originally Posted by leftymo View Post
    Not really related to whats being discussed but kinda sorta. I looked at the all time rushing leaders. Most of the great RB's in NFL history last about 10-12 years? I didn't correlate what round they were taken in, but in reality, you are really looking at a 4-6 year RB...

    Is that worth a first round pick, or do you want a 10 year player like a Joe Staley type. Injuries are a part of the game and there's no way to know how long a career will last, but I just feel like taking an Iupati at 10th, and then him leaving 4 years later, is just not worth it.
    Iupati isn't really a typical case. A guy who has a self worth that outweighs his actual value. Someone like Nelson has been put into Zack Martin/Logan Mankind territory will be worth the extension when the time comes. I can't even recall Iupati's.
    Last edited by RedandGold_35; 01-03-2018 at 06:53 PM.

  15. #1380
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    Quote Originally Posted by leftymo View Post
    Not really related to whats being discussed but kinda sorta. I looked at the all time rushing leaders. Most of the great RB's in NFL history last about 10-12 years? I didn't correlate what round they were taken in, but in reality, you are really looking at a 4-6 year RB...

    Is that worth a first round pick, or do you want a 10 year player like a Joe Staley type. Injuries are a part of the game and there's no way to know how long a career will last, but I just feel like taking an Iupati at 10th, and then him leaving 4 years later, is just not worth it.
    While I understand the "shelf life" of a running back isn't that great, and I don't agree with it...Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, McCoy, Mark Ingram,, L. Blount, Jonathan Stewart are all still playing and are all still effective (Stewart the least of the bunch) But These guys are Past their shelf life, or right at the years, yet they are still giving solid effort.

    Barkley will be 21 years old his rookie year. That gives him roughly 7-9 years (depending on injury of course) of quality work. In that time frame he can very well

    280 carries a season, 50 receptions a season. 4.0-4.5 yards per carry would make up to 1200 yards a season, 8 yards per reception would be 400 yards receiving. You're looking around 15,000 yards in 9 seasons. Lets say he averages 9 rushing TD's a season and 3 receiving TD's a season, you're now looking at 100+ touchdowns in that time frame. That is well worth a top 10 pick on a running back. Those numbers are VERY achievable as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by heimdog8 View Post
    I didn't want to throw this information out here. I was a 3 year varsity starter at QB in high school. I played quarterback in junior college as well. I was considering playing division 1 football as well but chose to pursue my career in business instead. However, currently I am helping train with Derek Carr from Fresno State get ready for his pro day and the draft. I am also working with Cody Kessler, the USC quarterback.

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