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  1. #2176
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeW-Star View Post
    Using 'replacement level' which I'd maybe be fine with for awards purposes but not when we are actually discussing the most important to their specific team. Because when your QB or your LT goes down it's not the replacement level player that is typically stepping in (at least not in how you are using 'replacement player'), it's their backups.

    But either way 'replacement level' players are not good players, from fangraphs this is what a replacement level player is:

    "Replacement level is simply the level of production you could get from a player that would cost you nothing but the league minimum salary to acquire."

    The QBs you are getting for the league minimum salary are pretty damn awful. All replacement players are pretty awful, but the have and have not's at a position of QB and the overall impact of the position itself is so drastic and stark the drop is felt extremely hard there.

    Even if we adjust that definition of replacement level to maybe your average backup or to even the bottom barrel starters such as McCown or Fitzpatrick or Osweiler you will see some pretty drastic fall offs to a teams production at the QB position.
    So Deshon Kizer is the most important player to the Browns?

    Carson, trust me, even if you turn out to be a really bad QB, BDawk4Prez will always defend you on PSD.

  2. #2177
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeW-Star View Post
    Using 'replacement level' which I'd maybe be fine with for awards purposes but not when we are actually discussing the most important to their specific team. Because when your QB or your LT goes down it's not the replacement level player that is typically stepping in (at least not in how you are using 'replacement player'), it's their backups.

    But either way 'replacement level' players are not good players, from fangraphs this is what a replacement level player is:

    "Replacement level is simply the level of production you could get from a player that would cost you nothing but the league minimum salary to acquire."

    The QBs you are getting for the league minimum salary are pretty damn awful. All replacement players are pretty awful, but the have and have not's at a position of QB and the overall impact of the position itself is so drastic and stark the drop is felt extremely hard there.

    Even if we adjust that definition of replacement level to maybe your average backup or to even the bottom barrel starters such as McCown or Fitzpatrick or Osweiler you will see some pretty drastic fall offs to a teams production at the QB position.
    Replacement level could be the wrong wording. I'm not claiming there isn;t fall-off from A to B, of course their will be.

    Look at this past weekend. All we heard was how Dallas O wouldn't miss a beat without Zeke. Atlanta stopped the run at will when they wanted to early. They didn't stack the box, they didn't respect the run game at all. They did what teams should do with Dallas without Zeke, make Dak beat you with his arm. With or without their starting LT, if Zeke plays, the gamplan changes and Dallas runs the ball better opening up the passing game, IMO.

    Carson, trust me, even if you turn out to be a really bad QB, BDawk4Prez will always defend you on PSD.

  3. #2178
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    So Deshon Kizer is the most important player to the Browns?
    That's a team that probably has the closest thing resembling to a team full of QB replacement players. And it's no coincidence their record is what it is.

    You almost never have good QBs that play a fully healthy season anywhere near those types of teams. It's almost always a team without an answer at the QB position.
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  4. #2179
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeW-Star View Post
    That's a team that probably has the closest thing resembling to a team full of QB replacement players. And it's no coincidence their record is what it is.

    You almost never have good QBs that play a fully healthy season anywhere near those types of teams. It's almost always a team without an answer at the QB position.
    Keemun most important player to Minny?

  5. #2180
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeW-Star View Post
    That's a team that probably has the closest thing resembling to a team full of QB replacement players. And it's no coincidence their record is what it is.

    You almost never have good QBs that play a fully healthy season anywhere near those types of teams. It's almost always a team without an answer at the QB position.
    Who was the most important player on the broncos the last time they won their superbowl? Top 3 players?

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  6. #2181
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Replacement level could be the wrong wording. I'm not claiming there isn;t fall-off from A to B, of course their will be.

    Look at this past weekend. All we heard was how Dallas O wouldn't miss a beat without Zeke. Atlanta stopped the run at will when they wanted to early. They didn't stack the box, they didn't respect the run game at all. They did what teams should do with Dallas without Zeke, make Dak beat you with his arm. With or without their starting LT, if Zeke plays, the gamplan changes and Dallas runs the ball better opening up the passing game, IMO.
    Of course Zeke helps the offense. All run games have a symbiotic relationship with the pass game. The pass game has a bigger effect than vice versa but it's still important. Dallas was moving the ball though, when they stalled out it wasn't because of the run stopping them even though it was putting them in poor down and distances. It was holds wiping out plays or the LT being completely absent from the playing field and getting manhandled by a nobody to their defense.

    And do you have the details of the number of plays they stacked the box? I'd love to see that sort of information but it's not something I see databased anywhere that I'm aware of.

    In the first half of the KCs game last week I think Zeke had run for 11 for 39 yards. That's not exactly dominant.

    In their two TD drives in the first half of the KC game, Dallas ran with Zeke for a total of 1 time for 8 yards.

    In the next TD drive Zeke ran 7 for 31 on a drive that started at their own 25 (so went 75 yards total).

    In the final TD drive Zeke ran 5 for 16 on a drive that started on their own 13 (87 yards).

    So in their scoring drives Zeke ran 13 for 55 yards (4.23) on 4 drives totaling 305 yards.

    The offense can perform without Zeke. He's a great player don't get me wrong. But this narrative that the Pass O only functions because of Zeke fails to me.
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  7. #2182
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    There are teams that are bad that have good QBs though. Chargers, Raiders, Redskins, Giants, Buccaneers.

    Teams like Buffalo, Jacksonville, Minnesota are above .500 without really great QB play so I'd say their QBs are in their top 3 most important players. I don't even think the Titans, Chiefs, Steelers are teams that would say their QB is top 3 most important either. I wouldn't argue if the QB was for those teams but I could see the argument for both sides.

    It's clearly a team by team thing although having a good QB is certainly a top 3 priority in the vast majority of teams. How many championship teams have had replacement level QBs at the helm? Enough to warrant discussion.
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  8. #2183
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeW-Star View Post
    Of course Zeke helps the offense. All run games have a symbiotic relationship with the pass game. The pass game has a bigger effect than vice versa but it's still important. Dallas was moving the ball though, when they stalled out it wasn't because of the run stopping them even though it was putting them in poor down and distances. It was holds wiping out plays or the LT being completely absent from the playing field and getting manhandled by a nobody to their defense.

    And do you have the details of the number of plays they stacked the box? I'd love to see that sort of information but it's not something I see databased anywhere that I'm aware of.

    In the first half of the KCs game last week I think Zeke had run for 11 for 39 yards. That's not exactly dominant.

    In their two TD drives in the first half of the KC game, Dallas ran with Zeke for a total of 1 time for 8 yards.

    In the next TD drive Zeke ran 7 for 31 on a drive that started at their own 25 (so went 75 yards total).

    In the final TD drive Zeke ran 5 for 16 on a drive that started on their own 13 (87 yards).

    So in their scoring drives Zeke ran 13 for 55 yards (4.23) on 4 drives totaling 305 yards.

    The offense can perform without Zeke. He's a great player don't get me wrong. But this narrative that the Pass O only functions because of Zeke fails to me.
    Because those teams sold out to stop the run, opening up the pass game.

    Nobody said the passing game only functions because of Zeke, only that his presence with/without the ball helps it.

  9. #2184
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    There are teams that are bad that have good QBs though. Chargers, Raiders, Redskins, Giants, Buccaneers.

    Teams like Buffalo, Jacksonville, Minnesota are above .500 without really great QB play so I'd say their QBs are in their top 3 most important players. I don't even think the Titans, Chiefs, Steelers are teams that would say their QB is top 3 most important either. I wouldn't argue if the QB was for those teams but I could see the argument for both sides.

    It's clearly a team by team thing although having a good QB is certainly a top 3 priority in the vast majority of teams. How many championship teams have had replacement level QBs at the helm? Enough to warrant discussion.
    Like I said.. The Denver broncos.. During the 2015 season when they won the superbowl, Peyton manning was average.. At best.. I'd say he was actually below average at that point in his career tbh.. During the previous year when he was actually a pro bowl quarterback, the broncos lost in the divisional round.. So obviously quarterback wasn't the most important position for that team or even close for them to go from a pro bowl player to an average at best player and still be able to win the superbowl.

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  10. #2185
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Because those teams sold out to stop the run, opening up the pass game.

    Nobody said the passing game only functions because of Zeke, only that his presence with/without the ball helps it.
    Yep ^^

    I'd say when zeke is in the game most defensive coordinators are going to gameplan for the run, I mean why wouldn't they, Zeke was easily the best running back in 2016 and a top 3 running back in 2017 before he was suspended.. KC didn't "limit zeke" because they are an elite run stopping defense (29th in rush defense according to ESPN), they did it because their focus was on the run game and took their chances with the passing game.. Now with zeke out, by default defensive coordinators will now gameplan for the pass because Dallas has no obvious threats in the run game with zeke out.

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  11. #2186
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeW-Star View Post
    This kind of makes a point though. The rushing rate stats where there but the volume wasn't because it's a passing game that makes you an effective offense in the NFL. They stunk because Romo went down, and were successful in the brief time he was there.
    I don't know what you're seeing in those stats. If you hand the ball off on 1st down and 6% of time it's a TD, 20% of the time it's a first down, that poses a whole different threat to a defense than 2.5% and 15% respectively. In 2016, every fourth rushing attempt on *first* down either extended the drive or ended it in a score. That helps the passing game regardless of the QB, and it also helps control the flow of the game which in turn helps the defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by DeW-Star View Post
    That's why anyone saying that Dak is not one of the top 3 most important Cowboys, is either willfully being obtuse, or just doesn't know the NFL game. Unless maybe they think Cooper Rush is the 2nd coming of Tony Romo.
    What I wrote isn't about Prescott. I don't think he has regressed at all. What I'm pointing at are reasons why the Cowboys struggle apart from Sean Lee's absence supposedly turning the defense from great to trash. It's the offense that was a total let-down in the Falcons game. It started with not being able to establish the run and then not being able to protect the QB. That was the same issue as in the Broncos that Sean Lee played 100% of the defensive snaps in.

    The way the Cowboys assembled their roster, they have to run the ball or else they won't be successful. They're not built for great defensive performances in which Prescott only has to throw a low number of times. They're not built to be a high volume passing offense either, because with an All-Pro T, G, C against a four man rush it means one defender goes one-on-one against a Not-All-Pro every passing down, and because Dez and Witten aren't what they used to be with Williams, Beasley, Butler barely above replacement level. I mean Beasley is alright but he's limited in what he can do from the slot.
    Last edited by QB_Eagles; 11-14-2017 at 05:25 PM.

  12. #2187
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Keemun most important player to Minny?
    Lol I answered that already. Not with Teddy there he certainly isn't. If they didn't have Teddy there nor Sam healthy he may actually be. Xavier Rhodes would certainly be up there, but a defense is a sum of the parts.
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  13. #2188
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    There are teams that are bad that have good QBs though. Chargers, Raiders, Redskins, Giants, Buccaneers.

    Teams like Buffalo, Jacksonville, Minnesota are above .500 without really great QB play so I'd say their QBs are in their top 3 most important players. I don't even think the Titans, Chiefs, Steelers are teams that would say their QB is top 3 most important either. I wouldn't argue if the QB was for those teams but I could see the argument for both sides.

    It's clearly a team by team thing although having a good QB is certainly a top 3 priority in the vast majority of teams. How many championship teams have had replacement level QBs at the helm? Enough to warrant discussion.
    You typically need a super elite defensive team to not have an good-great QB take you to a championship. And that is usually driven by several elite pieces on that defense along with many other good ones. And even those are typically short lived because you get a few injuries here and there or contract demands make it impossible to keep together so it all falls apart.

    You can have a group of 3 players that aren't your qb in the most important 3. Just typically that means your team isn't very good and not a real threat at all.
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  14. #2189
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Because those teams sold out to stop the run, opening up the pass game.

    Nobody said the passing game only functions because of Zeke, only that his presence with/without the ball helps it.
    I've not seen any hard details to prove this yet. I've only seen it disproven using the ESPN article I've posted numerous times in regards to last year.
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  15. #2190
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaydubb View Post
    Yep ^^

    I'd say when zeke is in the game most defensive coordinators are going to gameplan for the run, I mean why wouldn't they, Zeke was easily the best running back in 2016 and a top 3 running back in 2017 before he was suspended.. KC didn't "limit zeke" because they are an elite run stopping defense (29th in rush defense according to ESPN), they did it because their focus was on the run game and took their chances with the passing game.. Now with zeke out, by default defensive coordinators will now gameplan for the pass because Dallas has no obvious threats in the run game with zeke out.

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    Again, I'd like to see the % of stacked boxes or run blitzes they are calling that were taken advantage of before we can make these sweeping declarations though. Not saying it's not true, just saying I don't think any of us have looked at the data to say this is true with any real certainty.
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