Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 4 of 21 FirstFirst ... 2345614 ... LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 310
  1. #46
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    27,681
    Even if we work under the assumption that speed affects pitchers how much do you think it matters over the course of a season? Maybe a couple of runs? I don't think it's enough to make someone who is a replacement level guy become an above average one.

  2. #47
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    1,821
    IM not saying it has to be Gordon. What I am saying is that Pillar is a BAD leadoff hitter, and Bautista is a GOD AWFUL leadoff hitter. how anyone in his right mind could even consider a .313 obp and 150 k guy a good choice to bat leadoff is insane. He cant run, almost never goes 1st to 3rd, its like putting your offense in a hole to begin with.

    since 2000 the team that scores first, has won 64-67% if ALL games. thats a significant consideration, so damn straight your leadoff hitter matters. thats why I know what im talking about. WAR doesnt even take that into account AT ALL.

    like i say WAR is a tool and it has its uses, no one denies that but there are certain stats that are overriding, and effect your success way more than WAR does. having a quality leadoff hitter, who is consistently getting on base and scoring runs is vital, and i could care less if his WAR isnt the greatest.

    WAR doesnt care what you do or when you do it. like Steve Pearces 2 grand slams and 12 RBI in one week or Kendrys Morales 3hr's 7 RBI today. it doesnt care if youve done squat for 10 games, but you have that one great game once or twice a month, your WAR will look fine.
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 09-01-2017 at 02:02 AM.

  3. #48
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    27,681
    WAR does have a strong correlation to winning. Players who get on base a lot are likely to have a positive WAR assuming they are decent base runners and defenders. 2017 Bautista is bad (although he has the plate discipline you want) leadoff hitter. Pillar would be fine if he could have maintained what he did in April.
    I don't think anyone is saying leadoff hitters don't matter. I personally think the slap hitter leadoff types are becoming more of a thing of the past as the game has evolved. As someone who likes the Cubs I liked when they had Rizzo leadoff a few games. I get the feeling here if the Jays did that people would be upset.
    If people are going to go with the idea that speed affects pitchers I can use the idea that a pitcher would be more scared to face someone like 2016 Bautista than 2015 Revere to lead off a game.
    Last edited by Mell413; 09-01-2017 at 05:44 AM.

  4. #49
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    North Shore
    Posts
    7,584
    It's like Mike is arguing with himself over WAR. He is literally the only one talking about it.

    As for a lead off hitter. Sure if he's fast and gets on base then awesome but I don't want a guy up there just because he is fast. Ben Revere is the perfect example. Sure he was good for us two years ago. It the guy straight up blows now. Ideally a prime Ellsbury is your lead off hitter but an Anthony Rizzo isn't bad either.

  5. #50
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    1,821
    Quote Originally Posted by Mell413 View Post
    WAR does have a strong correlation to winning. Players who get on base a lot are likely to have a positive WAR assuming they are decent base runners and defenders. 2017 Bautista is bad (although he has the plate discipline you want) leadoff hitter. Pillar would be fine if he could have maintained what he did in April.
    I don't think anyone is saying leadoff hitters don't matter. I personally think the slap hitter leadoff types are becoming more of a thing of the past as the game has evolved. As someone who likes the Cubs I liked when they had Rizzo leadoff a few games. I get the feeling here if the Jays did that people would be upset.
    If people are going to go with the idea that speed affects pitchers I can use the idea that a pitcher would be more scared to face someone like 2016 Bautista than 2015 Revere to lead off a game.
    Except it's not a direct correllation. It's secondary. It's been proven again and again. Which was Bill James point. Any player who gets on base alot, plays good defense, and is a good base runner WILL have a good WAR simply because that is how the formula is designed. It isn't possible to do all those things and NOT have a positive WAR.

    However you can be absolutely horrid at 2 of those 3 things if you are outstanding at only one of those aspects..and still have a good WAR

    Dave Kingman for example was absolutely brutal in the field and on base, he had a career .236 average and .302 on base average and still had a career WAR of 18. I pointed that out to Twitchy several times and he could never explain why Kingman consistently had a positive WAR. I could easily. One flaw in WAR is that it's based on the Aggregate and there are way more Bad and mediocre players than there are good ones so the baseline is artificially low. And it doesn't account for aberrant games like yesterday's Kendrys Morales game. If you had 3 games a month like that and did absolutely nothing in any of the others you'd still have a very good WAR.

    So if you end up with a lineup of 9, 2 and 3 WAR players you're worse off than if you had a lineup of 4 (5 WAR) players and the rest all 0 WAR players. Most of the WAR crowd don't understand that. When you ask them about the baseline issue, they have no clue about what you're talking about. WAR was designed to compare players as part of a group and as long as you have more Bad and Average players than truly good ones, the stat is going to be flawed...

    I even wrote Bill James about it and he agreed. Saying the stat was never meant to be used the way it's being used by most, but only as a means to compare players in the aggregate.
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 09-01-2017 at 09:12 AM.

  6. #51
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Rogers Centre
    Posts
    16,619
    Quote Originally Posted by Mell413 View Post
    WAR does have a strong correlation to winning. Players who get on base a lot are likely to have a positive WAR assuming they are decent base runners and defenders. 2017 Bautista is bad (although he has the plate discipline you want) leadoff hitter. Pillar would be fine if he could have maintained what he did in April.
    I don't think anyone is saying leadoff hitters don't matter. I personally think the slap hitter leadoff types are becoming more of a thing of the past as the game has evolved. As someone who likes the Cubs I liked when they had Rizzo leadoff a few games. I get the feeling here if the Jays did that people would be upset.
    If people are going to go with the idea that speed affects pitchers I can use the idea that a pitcher would be more scared to face someone like 2016 Bautista than 2015 Revere to lead off a game.
    Bautista no longer has good plate discipline. His strikeout to walk ratio is a hair under 2 which is god awful.

    Here's my beef with power hitters like Rizzo and the Bautista of old leading off. Their job is to drive in runs. Sure, they could both take walks but their MO is their power. As a power hitter the odds of you coming up with runners on in the leadoff spot are very low but if you're in the 3 or 4 hole then the odds are much better. Will they get on base more than a contact leadoff hitter? Of course they will. Will their value be maximized in the leadoff spot? Hell no. Would you rather your power hitter get 5 ABs in a game and only 1 of those ABs has runners on or would you rather then have 4 ABs with 2 of them having runners on?

    Speed is an absolute necessity at the top of the lineup because leading off is all about getting an early lead. After that 1st leadoff AB then it's just the spot following the 2 worst hitters in the order and that's the last place you want your power hitter to be. Look at Billy Hamilton and his abysmal .298 OBP. He's scored 80 runs this year.

  7. #52
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    11,154

    Changes For 2018

    And if Hamilton was batting 9th he would probably have close to the same. Obviously speed is great anywhere but to me if you can't get on base at a good clip your better suited for the bottom of the order where your still gonna have the top bats coming up behind you. You lead off once a game and if your a great hitter leading off you could get an extra AB in the game compared to down in the lineup.

    People talk about JB this season leading off but he's just not the same player but the last couple years when he lead off he did great.

  8. #53
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    1,821
    Exactly RJ. That's a direct correlation to winning. you can think something might be good but in reality when you break it down, contrary conclusions become not only apparent but inescapable. You cannot discount synergy either. It's easier to hit well when those around you are hitting.

    And Lance you may be right about Jose being great in prior years but that had more to do with how bad our other leadoff hitters were, than it did with Jose actually belonging there. If we had better hitters in front of him Jose would have done more as a number 3 or 4.
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 09-01-2017 at 09:31 AM.

  9. #54
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    1,578
    Quote Originally Posted by LanceUpperCut View Post
    And if Hamilton was batting 9th he would probably have close to the same. Obviously speed is great anywhere but to me if you can't get on base at a good clip your better suited for the bottom of the order where your still gonna have the top bats coming up behind you. You lead off once a game and if your a great hitter leading off you could get an extra AB in the game compared to down in the lineup.

    People talk about JB this season leading off but he's just not the same player but the last couple years when he lead off he did great.
    You've hit the nail on the head with regards to line-up construction. You want the first guy to the plate to make an impact.

    I think we do need more team speed, but that speed should come with either a premium at bat or somebody playing a premium position. It would be nice to have a player who could reliably steal bases in the bottom third of the line-up. I feel like a base stealing speed threat is best suited to the 9-hole, where they can maybe leg out an infield base hit and get themselves into scoring position.

    The biggest problem with this team right now is that they're too old and too directionless. They can't worry about appeasing the fanbase. If they go back to the middle of the road, we-aren't-bad-enough-to-rebuild-not-good-enough-to-win management style of the Ricciardi years they're going to lose all the gains they've made anyway.

  10. #55
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    21,494
    I actually think the direction of the team is pretty clear. They are focused on building the organization from the ground up. That's obvious. If they can simultaneously compete that's gravy.

    Problem is that's painful for the fans to hear so we've seen a lot of people develop a sort of blind spot to it.

    Sent from my SGH-I337M using Tapatalk
    Last edited by Jamiecballer; 09-01-2017 at 11:32 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  11. #56
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Rogers Centre
    Posts
    16,619
    Quote Originally Posted by LanceUpperCut View Post
    And if Hamilton was batting 9th he would probably have close to the same. Obviously speed is great anywhere but to me if you can't get on base at a good clip your better suited for the bottom of the order where your still gonna have the top bats coming up behind you. You lead off once a game and if your a great hitter leading off you could get an extra AB in the game compared to down in the lineup.

    People talk about JB this season leading off but he's just not the same player but the last couple years when he lead off he did great.
    That's a fair argument but again, having speed on 1B plays as a distraction for the pitcher while he has to deal with the 2,3 and 4. Hamilton is an extreme example because his bat is awful but his speed is absolutely lethal. I'd still have him leading off on this current Jays team.

    Generally an OBP of .375 and above is usually held by power hitters. Obviously you want an OBP like that out of your leadoff hitter but not at the cost of having several HRs being solo shots. I'd much rather a guy who can hit .300 with an OBP of lets say .340 accompanied by some speed. I feel as if we're just going to go around in circles so I'll just put it like this. In order, these are the 3things I look for in a leadoff hitter. Contact, speed and OBP.

  12. #57
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Posts
    5,973
    Just get somebody who's got Good OBP... good plate discipline and can steal. .... 2015 Ben Revere was the best example !


    He doesn't have to be an Altuve, Rickey Henderson etc. That way you don't have to spend a lot of money on him and the sluggers have a chance to bring him home .
    Last edited by 1hardcore; 09-01-2017 at 01:18 PM.

  13. #58
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    1,578
    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    I actually think the direction of the team is pretty clear. They are focused on building the organization from the ground up. That's obvious. If they can simultaneously compete that's gravy.

    Problem is that's painful for the fans to hear so we've seen a lot of people develop a sort of blind spot to it.

    Sent from my SGH-I337M using Tapatalk
    Right. I get that they are trying to build through the farm and have drafted fairly well the past few years, but this offseason will decide whether or not there's a clear direction. Will the team be willing to make tough decisions by moving Donaldson and Happ? I have my doubts. I hope I'm proven wrong.

  14. #59
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    597
    Quote Originally Posted by 1hardcore View Post
    Just get somebody who's got Good OBP... good plate discipline and can steal. .... 2015 Ben Revere was the best example !


    He doesn't have to be an Altuve, Rickey Henderson etc. That way you don't have to spend a lot of money on him and the sluggers have a chance to bring him home .
    Revere's arm is terrible in outfield. I would bring him in at league minimum, as 5th outfielder....nothing more

  15. #60
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    11,154
    Quote Originally Posted by LechWalesa View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    I actually think the direction of the team is pretty clear. They are focused on building the organization from the ground up. That's obvious. If they can simultaneously compete that's gravy.

    Problem is that's painful for the fans to hear so we've seen a lot of people develop a sort of blind spot to it.

    Sent from my SGH-I337M using Tapatalk
    Right. I get that they are trying to build through the farm and have drafted fairly well the past few years, but this offseason will decide whether or not there's a clear direction. Will the team be willing to make tough decisions by moving Donaldson and Happ? I have my doubts. I hope I'm proven wrong.
    I wouldn't really say that. I'd say unless there blown away JD is aJay until the deadline next season and could be the same with Happ.

Page 4 of 21 FirstFirst ... 2345614 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •